股票 · 期权分析
LOW 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $231.87
- 30D ATM IV
- 36.79%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 93
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +3.63
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.878
▼ -0.65 pts 较前一交易日
概览
LOW 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 36.8%,相当于未来一个月约 ±10.5% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 244 个交易日中 93% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 3.63 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 12%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2026-11-18 开盘前。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±5.0% 的波动,LOW 实际平均波动 2.1%,5 次中有 5 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 36.79%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +3.63
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.77
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.878
对应 30 天内约 ±10.5% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.3%。
高于过去一年中 93% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 3.63 个点。
高于过去一年中 66% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.77 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 12%。
高于过去一年中 9% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 244 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 93%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 55%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 95%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 55%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $231.87
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $232.47
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 33.16%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 32.29%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 31.90%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 77,676
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.66
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 348 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 36.79% | +3.63 | 0.878 | $231.87 |
| 2026-11-09 | 37.43% | +2.63 | 0.876 | $232.10 |
| 2026-11-06 | 37.83% | +2.43 | 0.887 | $224.55 |
| 2026-11-05 | 39.08% | +2.37 | 0.857 | $227.24 |
| 2026-11-04 | 37.76% | +1.86 | 0.880 | $229.38 |
| 2026-11-03 | 38.08% | +1.01 | 0.870 | $213.38 |
| 2026-11-02 | 37.72% | +2.93 | 0.887 | $218.15 |
| 2026-10-30 | 36.30% | +1.74 | 0.900 | $209.07 |
| 2026-10-29 | 37.38% | +2.12 | 0.894 | $207.28 |
| 2026-10-28 | 37.47% | +0.02 | 0.887 | $198.40 |
| 2026-10-27 | 37.55% | +0.27 | 0.889 | $198.18 |
| 2026-10-26 | 37.38% | +2.06 | 0.883 | $198.22 |
| 2026-10-23 | 37.13% | +0.60 | 0.884 | $198.68 |
| 2026-10-22 | 38.82% | +0.21 | 0.827 | $204.37 |
| 2026-10-21 | 36.61% | +0.13 | 0.904 | $196.56 |
| 2026-10-20 | 34.21% | +2.87 | 0.937 | $198.53 |
| 2026-10-19 | 34.88% | +1.06 | 0.931 | $195.92 |
| 2026-10-16 | 33.03% | +1.70 | 0.976 | $197.38 |
| 2026-10-15 | 31.49% | +0.86 | 1.043 | $195.72 |
| 2026-10-14 | 30.55% | +0.91 | 1.075 | $188.31 |
| 2026-10-13 | 30.21% | +0.55 | 1.084 | $188.74 |
| 2026-10-09 | 29.60% | +0.91 | 1.103 | $186.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | 29.91% | +1.25 | 1.094 | $188.85 |
| 2026-10-07 | 29.70% | +0.98 | 1.109 | $181.54 |
| 2026-10-06 | 28.73% | +1.15 | 1.149 | $183.67 |
| 2026-10-05 | 30.30% | +0.65 | 1.094 | $179.50 |
| 2026-10-02 | 30.56% | +0.41 | 1.080 | $180.80 |
| 2026-10-01 | 30.11% | +0.82 | 1.105 | $182.38 |
| 2026-09-30 | 29.66% | +0.41 | 1.079 | $184.29 |
| 2026-09-29 | 28.89% | +1.73 | 1.098 | $187.26 |
| 2026-09-28 | 29.13% | +0.48 | 1.085 | $187.66 |
| 2026-09-25 | 28.51% | +1.59 | 1.099 | $189.28 |
| 2026-09-24 | 28.28% | +0.69 | 1.108 | $188.49 |
| 2026-09-23 | 28.04% | +1.23 | 1.100 | $191.36 |
| 2026-09-22 | 28.68% | +2.01 | 1.078 | $196.08 |
| 2026-09-21 | 27.14% | +1.65 | 1.132 | $190.98 |
| 2026-09-18 | 26.43% | +0.92 | 1.146 | $192.49 |
| 2026-09-17 | 26.55% | +0.32 | 1.141 | $194.19 |
| 2026-09-16 | 27.46% | +0.85 | 1.115 | $194.10 |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — | — | $194.61 |
| 2026-09-14 | — | — | — | $198.17 |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — | — | $196.82 |
| 2026-09-10 | 27.00% | +1.16 | 1.143 | $196.59 |
| 2026-09-09 | — | — | — | $198.60 |
| 2026-09-08 | 30.13% | +1.34 | 1.008 | $200.80 |
| 2026-09-04 | 26.39% | +1.29 | 1.107 | $204.45 |
| 2026-09-03 | 26.26% | +0.01 | 1.100 | $201.90 |
| 2026-09-02 | 27.59% | +0.06 | 1.044 | $199.84 |
| 2026-09-01 | 28.41% | +1.62 | 1.041 | $200.05 |
| 2026-08-31 | 26.29% | +0.77 | 1.069 | $204.70 |
| 2026-08-28 | 26.48% | +1.32 | 1.072 | $208.05 |
| 2026-08-27 | 26.61% | +1.44 | 1.101 | $206.74 |
| 2026-08-26 | 27.86% | +3.21 | 1.051 | $210.36 |
| 2026-08-25 | 28.74% | +1.36 | 1.045 | $214.60 |
| 2026-08-24 | 28.45% | +1.90 | 1.019 | $216.98 |
| 2026-08-21 | — | — | — | $216.09 |
| 2026-08-20 | 28.18% | -0.12 | 1.040 | $217.34 |
| 2026-08-19 | — | — | — | $220.00 |
| 2026-08-18 | 33.34% | -0.40 | 0.950 | $215.64 |
| 2026-08-17 | 33.71% | -0.47 | 0.945 | $215.81 |
| 2025-10-22 | 29.69% | +2.19 | 0.850 | $243.53 |
| 2025-10-21 | 28.64% | +2.64 | 0.865 | $245.27 |
| 2025-10-20 | 27.57% | +3.60 | 0.890 | $242.27 |
| 2025-10-17 | 26.97% | +3.24 | 0.986 | $244.70 |
| 2025-10-16 | 27.43% | +2.47 | 1.005 | $243.10 |
| 2025-10-15 | 28.00% | +3.03 | 0.941 | $241.53 |
| 2025-10-14 | 25.62% | +3.11 | 1.025 | $240.75 |
| 2025-10-10 | 26.40% | +3.01 | 1.031 | $232.22 |
| 2025-10-09 | 23.53% | +2.97 | 1.112 | $234.67 |
| 2025-10-08 | 24.41% | +1.74 | 1.057 | $237.59 |
| 2025-10-07 | 23.03% | +1.67 | 1.103 | $239.89 |
| 2025-10-06 | 23.44% | +2.29 | 1.083 | $241.67 |
| 2025-10-03 | 22.73% | +3.43 | 1.094 | $246.35 |
| 2025-10-02 | 22.52% | +3.03 | 1.103 | $247.33 |
| 2025-10-01 | 23.15% | +2.46 | 1.064 | $247.99 |
| 2025-09-30 | 22.77% | +3.02 | 1.086 | $251.31 |
| 2025-09-29 | 21.68% | +3.15 | 1.121 | $253.32 |
| 2025-09-26 | 21.62% | +3.11 | 1.108 | $257.12 |
| 2025-09-25 | 22.31% | +2.76 | 1.093 | $255.53 |
| 2025-09-24 | 22.85% | +4.03 | 1.058 | $257.33 |
| 2025-09-23 | 21.84% | +3.18 | 1.093 | $259.81 |
| 2025-09-22 | 22.63% | +2.41 | 1.062 | $260.39 |
| 2025-09-19 | 20.90% | +2.45 | 1.131 | $265.20 |
| 2025-09-18 | 21.13% | +3.30 | 1.122 | $267.57 |
| 2025-09-17 | 20.76% | +2.16 | 1.104 | $267.95 |
| 2025-09-16 | 21.72% | +2.76 | 1.082 | $270.52 |
| 2025-09-15 | 21.44% | +2.94 | 1.061 | $272.09 |
| 2025-09-12 | 20.48% | +1.91 | 1.091 | $271.83 |
| 2025-09-11 | 20.82% | +1.85 | 1.083 | $272.40 |
| 2025-09-10 | 21.33% | +3.28 | 1.082 | $266.55 |
| 2025-09-09 | 20.74% | +2.91 | 1.096 | $269.03 |
| 2025-09-08 | 19.30% | +2.64 | 1.137 | $273.02 |
| 2025-09-05 | 19.56% | +2.98 | 1.107 | $269.97 |
| 2025-09-04 | 20.29% | +2.01 | 1.088 | $264.57 |
| 2025-09-03 | 20.65% | +2.65 | 1.072 | $260.68 |
| 2025-09-02 | 20.96% | +2.95 | 1.069 | $258.74 |
| 2025-08-29 | 19.91% | +1.53 | 1.103 | $258.06 |
| 2025-08-28 | 20.59% | +2.30 | 1.087 | $257.54 |
| 2025-08-27 | 20.54% | +2.69 | 1.076 | $258.67 |
| 2025-08-26 | 20.62% | +3.08 | 1.080 | $258.33 |
| 2025-08-25 | 21.38% | +1.86 | 1.032 | $258.87 |
| 2025-08-22 | 20.02% | +2.09 | 1.098 | $263.73 |
| 2025-08-21 | 22.38% | +2.93 | 1.023 | $255.65 |
| 2025-08-20 | 21.65% | +2.16 | 1.064 | $257.14 |
| 2025-08-19 | 25.81% | +3.42 | 0.952 | $256.36 |
| 2025-08-18 | 27.15% | +2.78 | 0.911 | $250.89 |
| 2025-08-15 | 27.24% | +2.88 | 0.896 | $252.06 |
| 2025-08-14 | 27.58% | +2.91 | 0.905 | $253.05 |
| 2025-08-13 | 28.38% | +3.17 | 0.899 | $256.33 |
| 2025-08-12 | 27.19% | +2.60 | 0.918 | $244.87 |
| 2025-08-11 | 27.69% | +4.09 | 0.918 | $239.85 |
| 2025-08-08 | 27.54% | +3.69 | 0.913 | $241.15 |
| 2025-08-07 | 28.31% | +3.42 | 0.904 | $238.56 |
| 2025-08-06 | 28.87% | +2.39 | 0.894 | $238.29 |
| 2025-08-05 | 29.02% | +5.79 | 0.892 | $237.46 |
| 2025-08-04 | 29.83% | +3.43 | 0.887 | $233.81 |
| 2025-08-01 | 29.44% | +3.93 | 0.902 | $226.40 |
| 2025-07-31 | 29.30% | +3.98 | 0.897 | $223.57 |
| 2025-07-30 | 29.51% | +3.26 | 0.879 | $227.43 |
| 2025-07-29 | 28.77% | +1.92 | 0.894 | $230.04 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 348 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Δ 看涨 | 38.02% | — | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 38.01% | 46.52% | 39.77% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 37.49% | 45.04% | 39.02% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 37.27% | 44.81% | 39.19% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 37.22% | 45.62% | 39.32% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 37.02% | 46.02% | 40.12% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 36.23% | 47.12% | 40.96% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 35.82% | 47.81% | 40.30% |
| ATM | 35.97% | 46.83% | 40.45% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 36.26% | 47.83% | 40.52% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 36.54% | 48.38% | 40.61% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 36.82% | 47.77% | 40.81% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 37.18% | 47.32% | 42.24% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 37.75% | 47.87% | 40.39% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 38.49% | 47.57% | 40.88% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 39.37% | 48.61% | 40.74% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | — | 49.67% | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | — | 51.86% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $231.37 | 35.97% | 37.75% | 37.27% | +0.47 | +1.54 | 9 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $231.75 | 46.83% | 47.87% | 44.81% | +3.06 | -0.49 | 19 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $231.85 | 40.45% | 40.39% | 39.19% | +1.20 | -0.66 | 15 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $231.96 | 37.19% | 37.58% | 36.33% | +1.25 | -0.24 | 11 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $232.56 | 36.73% | 39.60% | 35.67% | +3.93 | +0.90 | 11 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $232.31 | 35.12% | 36.18% | 34.53% | +1.65 | +0.24 | 11 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $232.49 | 35.64% | 36.81% | 34.00% | +2.81 | -0.24 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $233.12 | 32.51% | 33.84% | 31.58% | +2.26 | +0.21 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $233.76 | 32.11% | 33.66% | 31.04% | +2.62 | +0.24 | 17 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $234.48 | 31.74% | 33.89% | 30.83% | +3.06 | +0.62 | 19 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $234.67 | 32.09% | 33.03% | 30.65% | +2.38 | -0.25 | 23 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $236.94 | 31.06% | 33.64% | 30.24% | +3.41 | +0.88 | 26 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $231.37 | 35.97% | $231.50 | 9 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $231.75 | 46.83% | $232.45 | 19 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $231.85 | 40.45% | $232.73 | 15 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $231.96 | 37.19% | $233.01 | 11 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $232.56 | 36.73% | $233.90 | 11 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $232.31 | 35.12% | $233.81 | 11 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $232.49 | 35.64% | $234.27 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $233.12 | 32.51% | $235.36 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $233.76 | 32.11% | $238.05 | 17 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $234.48 | 31.74% | $239.62 | 19 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $234.67 | 32.09% | $242.03 | 23 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $236.94 | 31.06% | $246.88 | 26 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 36.79%
- 60 天
- 33.16%
- 90 天
- 32.29%
- 180 天
- 31.90%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 5 次
- 100% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 5.0%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 2.1%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | 开盘前 | 5.2% | +2.0% | 0.39× |
| 2026-05-20 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-25 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-19 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-20 | 开盘前 | 4.6% | +0.3% | 0.07× |
| 2025-05-21 | 开盘前 | 5.1% | -1.7% | 0.33× |
| 2025-02-26 | 开盘前 | 5.4% | +1.9% | 0.35× |
| 2024-11-19 | 开盘前 | 4.8% | -4.6% | 0.97× |
| 2024-08-20 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-21 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-27 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-21 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。