股票 · 期权分析
LRCX 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $222.39
- 30D ATM IV
- 65.05%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 97
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +4.99
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.937
▲ +0.69 pts 较前一交易日
概览
LRCX 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 65.1%,相当于未来一个月约 ±18.7% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 251 个交易日中 97% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 4.99 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 6%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-27(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 8 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±7.7% 的波动,LRCX 实际平均波动 54.7%,8 次中有 4 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 65.05%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +4.99
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.56
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.937
对应 30 天内约 ±18.7% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.1%。
高于过去一年中 97% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 4.99 个点。
高于过去一年中 77% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.56 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 6%。
高于过去一年中 29% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 251 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 97%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 68%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 98%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 68%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $222.39
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $222.63
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 60.64%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 60.93%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 60.50%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 443,817
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.21
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 348 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 65.05% | +4.99 | 0.937 | $222.39 |
| 2026-11-09 | 64.36% | +8.15 | 0.952 | $221.31 |
| 2026-11-06 | 70.67% | +11.29 | 0.905 | $200.44 |
| 2026-11-05 | 74.08% | +10.14 | 0.885 | $185.20 |
| 2026-11-04 | 61.29% | +2.54 | 0.942 | $221.43 |
| 2026-11-03 | 61.23% | +4.54 | 0.955 | $230.72 |
| 2026-11-02 | 62.87% | +3.13 | 0.942 | $227.56 |
| 2026-10-30 | 58.65% | +4.52 | 0.956 | $239.11 |
| 2026-10-29 | 54.01% | +0.58 | 0.990 | $254.39 |
| 2026-10-28 | 53.91% | -1.47 | 0.998 | $253.82 |
| 2026-10-27 | 53.53% | +0.83 | 0.986 | $240.85 |
| 2026-10-26 | 54.55% | +2.30 | 0.975 | $237.50 |
| 2026-10-23 | 56.27% | +3.06 | 0.938 | $230.10 |
| 2026-10-22 | 58.36% | +2.26 | 0.930 | $230.15 |
| 2026-10-21 | 60.20% | -0.68 | 0.906 | $260.81 |
| 2026-10-20 | 59.86% | +1.04 | 0.902 | $263.45 |
| 2026-10-19 | 58.88% | +1.76 | 0.917 | $272.20 |
| 2026-10-16 | 59.82% | +2.00 | 0.898 | $263.94 |
| 2026-10-15 | 59.36% | -0.34 | 0.884 | $277.46 |
| 2026-10-14 | 59.28% | +0.44 | 0.909 | $286.92 |
| 2026-10-13 | 60.24% | +1.11 | 0.896 | $301.11 |
| 2026-10-09 | 60.51% | -0.94 | 0.897 | $318.84 |
| 2026-10-08 | 62.00% | -2.16 | 0.908 | $320.59 |
| 2026-10-07 | 59.40% | -1.78 | 0.936 | $329.51 |
| 2026-10-06 | 57.34% | -0.43 | 0.968 | $333.89 |
| 2026-10-05 | 57.78% | -0.96 | 0.974 | $345.80 |
| 2026-10-02 | 61.45% | +0.20 | 0.960 | $347.49 |
| 2026-10-01 | 62.58% | +1.83 | 0.948 | $340.10 |
| 2026-09-30 | 64.57% | +0.58 | 0.935 | $328.51 |
| 2026-09-29 | 64.44% | -0.13 | 0.949 | $323.86 |
| 2026-09-28 | 64.63% | +0.17 | 0.943 | $314.47 |
| 2026-09-25 | 62.51% | +0.32 | 0.971 | $315.21 |
| 2026-09-24 | 62.29% | -0.44 | 0.980 | $307.16 |
| 2026-09-23 | 62.74% | -2.03 | 0.981 | $307.28 |
| 2026-09-22 | 60.69% | -0.14 | 1.014 | $310.96 |
| 2026-09-21 | 61.66% | -0.21 | 1.013 | $302.28 |
| 2026-09-18 | 56.24% | +0.15 | 1.058 | $288.11 |
| 2026-09-17 | 54.10% | +0.12 | 1.066 | $269.31 |
| 2026-09-16 | 55.33% | +0.61 | 1.059 | $269.23 |
| 2026-09-15 | 55.89% | +0.64 | 1.063 | $270.87 |
| 2026-09-14 | 56.17% | +1.11 | 1.072 | $273.49 |
| 2026-09-11 | 55.00% | -0.93 | 1.101 | $298.22 |
| 2026-09-10 | 58.54% | -2.10 | 1.069 | $298.01 |
| 2026-09-09 | 59.63% | -1.43 | 1.065 | $315.84 |
| 2026-09-08 | 60.51% | -2.37 | 1.070 | $320.42 |
| 2026-09-04 | 57.65% | -0.83 | 1.095 | $307.65 |
| 2026-09-03 | 53.13% | -0.86 | 1.116 | $292.66 |
| 2026-09-02 | 53.42% | -2.00 | 1.095 | $288.32 |
| 2026-09-01 | 54.53% | -0.90 | 1.086 | $290.20 |
| 2026-08-31 | 54.13% | -0.95 | 1.094 | $301.49 |
| 2026-08-28 | 55.30% | -1.60 | 1.110 | $301.90 |
| 2026-08-27 | 58.46% | -0.56 | 1.083 | $318.58 |
| 2026-08-26 | 59.94% | -1.43 | 1.081 | $312.88 |
| 2026-08-25 | 59.97% | +0.32 | 1.083 | $314.66 |
| 2026-08-24 | 60.26% | -0.50 | 1.073 | $310.17 |
| 2026-08-21 | 59.62% | -0.06 | 1.090 | $314.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | 60.02% | +0.36 | 1.087 | $310.53 |
| 2026-08-19 | 60.05% | -0.23 | 1.089 | $307.17 |
| 2026-08-18 | 62.44% | +0.11 | 1.063 | $327.92 |
| 2026-08-17 | 61.76% | -1.02 | 1.083 | $343.84 |
| 2025-10-22 | 50.46% | +4.72 | 0.895 | $141.25 |
| 2025-10-21 | 51.40% | +3.06 | 0.906 | $145.04 |
| 2025-10-20 | 54.88% | +2.80 | 0.865 | $144.05 |
| 2025-10-17 | 54.30% | +3.34 | 0.867 | $141.51 |
| 2025-10-16 | 56.89% | +1.59 | 0.810 | $142.37 |
| 2025-10-15 | 52.92% | +3.09 | 0.904 | $144.78 |
| 2025-10-14 | 54.12% | +2.81 | 0.878 | $138.31 |
| 2025-10-10 | 54.52% | +3.29 | 0.894 | $131.37 |
| 2025-10-09 | 50.98% | +1.50 | 0.905 | $141.00 |
| 2025-10-08 | 52.43% | -1.83 | 0.890 | $142.54 |
| 2025-10-07 | 52.65% | -0.03 | 0.911 | $140.35 |
| 2025-10-06 | 53.43% | +0.36 | 0.904 | $149.15 |
| 2025-10-03 | 50.84% | +0.13 | 0.898 | $145.81 |
| 2025-10-02 | 51.02% | -1.88 | 0.897 | $146.99 |
| 2025-10-01 | 49.07% | -2.06 | 0.919 | $142.79 |
| 2025-09-30 | 46.00% | +2.49 | 0.923 | $133.90 |
| 2025-09-29 | 46.05% | +2.51 | 0.907 | $131.09 |
| 2025-09-26 | 45.50% | +2.91 | 0.909 | $128.33 |
| 2025-09-25 | 46.55% | +1.15 | 0.915 | $128.13 |
| 2025-09-24 | 46.69% | +0.16 | 0.909 | $128.32 |
| 2025-09-23 | 45.73% | +0.96 | 0.966 | $131.93 |
| 2025-09-22 | 46.96% | -1.03 | 0.927 | $132.20 |
| 2025-09-19 | 42.00% | +2.44 | 0.999 | $126.92 |
| 2025-09-18 | 42.33% | +0.74 | 1.003 | $126.32 |
| 2025-09-17 | 40.91% | -2.37 | 0.994 | $121.90 |
| 2025-09-16 | 39.64% | +0.63 | 1.018 | $120.47 |
| 2025-09-15 | 39.22% | +0.03 | 1.021 | $119.21 |
| 2025-09-12 | 36.96% | -1.09 | 1.065 | $116.96 |
| 2025-09-11 | 36.96% | +0.41 | 1.037 | $115.58 |
| 2025-09-10 | 34.73% | +2.95 | 1.066 | $107.36 |
| 2025-09-09 | 34.13% | +2.67 | 1.073 | $105.57 |
| 2025-09-08 | 34.10% | +2.66 | 1.078 | $105.07 |
| 2025-09-05 | 32.68% | +1.69 | 1.132 | $102.95 |
| 2025-09-04 | 34.98% | +4.21 | 1.047 | $100.42 |
| 2025-09-03 | 35.23% | +4.21 | 1.048 | $97.74 |
| 2025-09-02 | 38.18% | +4.42 | 0.981 | $97.03 |
| 2025-08-29 | 34.60% | +5.05 | 1.049 | $100.15 |
| 2025-08-28 | 32.39% | +3.48 | 1.092 | $104.09 |
| 2025-08-27 | 34.24% | +3.41 | 1.053 | $103.67 |
| 2025-08-26 | 32.99% | +4.21 | 1.087 | $103.63 |
| 2025-08-25 | 34.21% | +3.60 | 1.066 | $101.28 |
| 2025-08-22 | 33.93% | +3.20 | 1.056 | $100.08 |
| 2025-08-21 | 35.58% | +3.74 | 1.028 | $98.41 |
| 2025-08-20 | 33.47% | +2.02 | 1.081 | $99.15 |
| 2025-08-19 | 34.53% | +3.66 | 1.045 | $100.33 |
| 2025-08-18 | 33.38% | +3.57 | 1.071 | $98.88 |
| 2025-08-15 | 33.58% | +3.49 | 1.081 | $99.51 |
| 2025-08-14 | 33.30% | -0.57 | 1.046 | $107.38 |
| 2025-08-13 | 29.82% | +1.88 | 1.145 | $106.74 |
| 2025-08-12 | 27.40% | +4.60 | 1.213 | $105.28 |
| 2025-08-11 | 35.83% | +3.90 | 1.002 | $102.00 |
| 2025-08-08 | 31.70% | +3.99 | 1.074 | $101.75 |
| 2025-08-07 | 33.72% | +3.88 | 1.028 | $99.15 |
| 2025-08-06 | 31.00% | +2.87 | 1.118 | $95.94 |
| 2025-08-05 | 33.91% | +4.12 | 1.026 | $96.68 |
| 2025-08-04 | 35.48% | +4.24 | 0.951 | $98.41 |
| 2025-08-01 | 33.10% | +6.86 | 1.070 | $96.37 |
| 2025-07-31 | 33.52% | +3.96 | 1.025 | $94.84 |
| 2025-07-30 | 35.16% | +3.53 | 0.979 | $99.09 |
| 2025-07-29 | 39.61% | +4.42 | 0.911 | $98.94 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 348 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 85.17% | 71.51% | 63.45% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 85.46% | 71.31% | 63.45% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 85.79% | 71.54% | 63.33% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 86.20% | 71.48% | 63.68% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 86.62% | 72.04% | 64.02% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 88.13% | 72.46% | 64.74% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 88.57% | 72.90% | 65.52% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 88.35% | 73.07% | 65.79% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 88.39% | 74.52% | 66.15% |
| ATM | 88.34% | 74.15% | 66.54% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 88.09% | 75.18% | 66.68% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 88.58% | 75.65% | 66.96% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 89.50% | 75.92% | 67.96% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 90.86% | 76.97% | 68.62% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 92.00% | 76.79% | 68.74% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 93.04% | 78.32% | 70.00% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 94.35% | 80.52% | 71.82% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 96.24% | 82.34% | 73.58% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | — | 87.44% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $222.35 | 88.34% | 92.00% | 86.62% | +5.38 | +0.97 | 28 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $222.63 | 74.15% | 76.79% | 72.04% | +4.75 | +0.27 | 35 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $222.80 | 66.54% | 68.74% | 64.02% | +4.72 | -0.16 | 36 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $223.15 | 64.97% | 67.47% | 61.29% | +6.18 | -0.59 | 26 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $222.54 | 65.07% | 66.93% | 62.10% | +4.83 | -0.55 | 24 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $223.21 | 63.11% | 67.01% | 60.64% | +6.37 | +0.72 | 33 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $223.47 | 61.87% | 65.35% | 59.43% | +5.92 | +0.52 | 27 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $223.88 | 60.33% | 63.16% | 57.99% | +5.17 | +0.24 | 30 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $224.99 | 61.11% | 64.72% | 59.27% | +5.45 | +0.88 | 36 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $225.79 | 61.15% | 64.56% | 58.55% | +6.02 | +0.41 | 42 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $227.95 | 60.21% | 63.44% | 57.78% | +5.66 | +0.41 | 57 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $230.31 | 59.71% | 62.25% | 57.41% | +4.84 | +0.13 | 49 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $222.35 | 88.34% | $223.06 | 28 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $222.63 | 74.15% | $224.31 | 35 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $222.80 | 66.54% | $225.11 | 36 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $223.15 | 64.97% | $226.26 | 26 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $222.54 | 65.07% | $226.58 | 24 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $223.21 | 63.11% | $227.89 | 33 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $223.47 | 61.87% | $228.68 | 27 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $223.88 | 60.33% | $231.37 | 30 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $224.99 | 61.11% | $236.92 | 36 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $225.79 | 61.15% | $241.21 | 42 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $227.95 | 60.21% | $254.13 | 57 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $230.31 | 59.71% | $268.09 | 49 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 65.05%
- 60 天
- 60.64%
- 90 天
- 60.93%
- 180 天
- 60.50%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 8 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 8 次中 4 次
- 50% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 7.7%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 54.7%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 未说明时间 | 6.1% | -16.4% | 2.68× |
| 2026-10-28 | 未说明时间 | 5.6% | +0.2% | 0.04× |
| 2026-10-21 | 收盘后 | 8.9% | -11.8% | 1.32× |
| 2026-07-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-22 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-22 | 收盘后 | 7.5% | +143.4% | 19.00× |
| 2025-07-30 | 收盘后 | 7.1% | +247.0% | 34.78× |
| 2025-04-23 | 收盘后 | 8.1% | +6.2% | 0.77× |
| 2025-01-29 | 收盘后 | 9.0% | +7.4% | 0.83× |
| 2024-10-23 | 收盘后 | 9.2% | +5.1% | 0.55× |
| 2024-07-31 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-24 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-24 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-18 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。