股票 · 期权分析
LULU 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $110.37
- 30D ATM IV
- 55.73%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 79
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +3.78
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.902
▲ +3.31 pts 较前一交易日
概览
LULU 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 55.7%,相当于未来一个月约 ±16.0% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 79% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 3.78 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 10%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2026-12-08(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±10.6% 的波动,LULU 实际平均波动 42.1%,6 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 55.73%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +3.78
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.06
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.902
对应 30 天内约 ±16.0% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.5%。
高于过去一年中 79% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 3.78 个点。
高于过去一年中 77% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.06 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 10%。
高于过去一年中 29% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 79%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 63%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 83%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 63%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $110.37
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $110.80
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 52.16%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 50.25%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 49.88%
- 使用的到期日数
- 11
- 总未平仓量
- 252,440
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.89
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 338 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 55.73% | +3.78 | 0.902 | $110.37 |
| 2026-11-09 | 52.42% | +3.65 | 0.975 | $112.53 |
| 2026-11-06 | 50.42% | +2.25 | 1.028 | $110.79 |
| 2026-11-05 | 51.30% | +2.16 | 1.025 | $111.77 |
| 2026-11-04 | 46.17% | +1.21 | 1.111 | $112.06 |
| 2026-11-03 | 46.78% | +0.49 | 1.118 | $106.95 |
| 2026-11-02 | 47.05% | -0.19 | 1.110 | $107.83 |
| 2026-10-30 | 45.56% | +3.19 | 1.106 | $107.24 |
| 2026-10-29 | 43.34% | +0.46 | 1.172 | $109.82 |
| 2026-10-28 | 45.43% | -2.00 | 1.126 | $105.22 |
| 2026-10-27 | 42.75% | -0.55 | 1.193 | $104.59 |
| 2026-10-26 | 42.00% | +1.08 | 1.201 | $102.91 |
| 2026-10-23 | 42.57% | +0.28 | 1.196 | $99.01 |
| 2026-10-22 | 45.05% | -2.08 | 1.119 | $104.06 |
| 2026-10-21 | 41.95% | +0.24 | 1.172 | $96.53 |
| 2026-10-20 | 40.91% | +1.23 | 1.189 | $99.94 |
| 2026-10-19 | 40.47% | +0.10 | 1.215 | $97.76 |
| 2026-10-16 | 42.67% | +0.61 | 1.167 | $97.10 |
| 2026-10-15 | 42.53% | +0.20 | 1.160 | $99.09 |
| 2026-10-14 | 42.18% | -0.37 | 1.178 | $94.09 |
| 2026-10-13 | 41.49% | +0.51 | 1.191 | $94.34 |
| 2026-10-09 | 40.38% | -0.54 | 1.232 | $94.50 |
| 2026-10-08 | 41.42% | -0.55 | 1.198 | $92.68 |
| 2026-10-07 | 42.05% | -0.89 | 1.191 | $91.88 |
| 2026-10-06 | 40.60% | +0.32 | 1.227 | $93.61 |
| 2026-10-05 | 40.75% | -1.86 | 1.227 | $93.14 |
| 2026-10-02 | 41.70% | +0.16 | 1.195 | $94.46 |
| 2026-10-01 | 40.96% | -1.10 | 1.214 | $95.86 |
| 2026-09-30 | 42.74% | -1.68 | 1.170 | $96.19 |
| 2026-09-29 | 42.06% | -3.01 | 1.188 | $96.87 |
| 2026-09-28 | 41.63% | +1.70 | 1.191 | $100.58 |
| 2026-09-25 | 41.26% | -2.25 | 1.188 | $101.30 |
| 2026-09-24 | 40.47% | +0.48 | 1.193 | $101.64 |
| 2026-09-23 | 40.98% | -0.01 | 1.187 | $102.28 |
| 2026-09-22 | 40.35% | -0.24 | 1.203 | $103.73 |
| 2026-09-21 | 40.81% | -1.08 | 1.190 | $101.30 |
| 2026-09-18 | 39.67% | -0.64 | 1.206 | $98.06 |
| 2026-09-17 | 40.36% | -1.31 | 1.180 | $99.39 |
| 2026-09-16 | 39.54% | -0.45 | 1.201 | $95.98 |
| 2026-09-15 | 39.98% | +0.63 | 1.174 | $98.37 |
| 2026-09-14 | 40.95% | +0.16 | 1.169 | $100.30 |
| 2026-09-11 | 37.12% | +1.08 | 1.246 | $98.97 |
| 2026-09-10 | 40.73% | +0.51 | 1.163 | $96.88 |
| 2026-09-09 | 41.88% | -1.10 | 1.140 | $99.72 |
| 2026-09-08 | 42.55% | -0.66 | 1.078 | $103.19 |
| 2026-09-04 | 41.14% | -0.68 | 1.085 | $100.61 |
| 2026-09-03 | 58.96% | -3.06 | 0.858 | $121.77 |
| 2026-09-02 | 57.22% | +0.64 | 0.868 | $120.07 |
| 2026-09-01 | 56.15% | +0.54 | 0.877 | $118.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | 58.92% | -1.38 | 0.850 | $120.26 |
| 2026-08-28 | 57.64% | -1.26 | 0.866 | $120.81 |
| 2026-08-27 | 56.45% | -1.72 | 0.858 | $115.00 |
| 2026-08-26 | 56.88% | -1.33 | 0.876 | $116.35 |
| 2026-08-25 | 56.78% | -0.71 | 0.857 | $118.33 |
| 2026-08-24 | 57.87% | +0.67 | 0.859 | $122.78 |
| 2025-10-22 | 45.70% | -3.66 | 1.175 | $178.29 |
| 2025-10-21 | 42.15% | +0.29 | 1.298 | $181.39 |
| 2025-10-20 | 41.93% | +0.81 | 1.287 | $172.43 |
| 2025-10-17 | 42.83% | -0.04 | 1.262 | $167.41 |
| 2025-10-16 | 46.17% | +0.16 | 1.198 | $164.62 |
| 2025-10-15 | 43.16% | -3.48 | 1.273 | $167.10 |
| 2025-10-14 | 42.28% | +0.07 | 1.305 | $169.13 |
| 2025-10-10 | 44.85% | -2.58 | 1.215 | $167.51 |
| 2025-10-09 | 43.28% | -0.86 | 1.242 | $173.48 |
| 2025-10-08 | 40.60% | -2.59 | 1.315 | $174.82 |
| 2025-10-07 | 40.70% | -2.36 | 1.312 | $173.17 |
| 2025-10-06 | 42.72% | -2.92 | 1.262 | $174.12 |
| 2025-10-03 | 40.60% | -1.46 | 1.317 | $175.59 |
| 2025-10-02 | 41.29% | -2.57 | 1.308 | $178.20 |
| 2025-10-01 | 42.26% | -1.75 | 1.269 | $177.57 |
| 2025-09-30 | 41.35% | -2.58 | 1.313 | $177.93 |
| 2025-09-29 | 42.85% | -3.47 | 1.257 | $179.11 |
| 2025-09-26 | 40.08% | -1.11 | 1.330 | $176.30 |
| 2025-09-25 | 42.02% | -2.07 | 1.292 | $172.01 |
| 2025-09-24 | 42.47% | -3.46 | 1.282 | $179.22 |
| 2025-09-23 | 41.66% | -2.94 | 1.295 | $173.33 |
| 2025-09-22 | 41.52% | -2.20 | 1.288 | $173.41 |
| 2025-09-19 | 39.25% | -1.49 | 1.296 | $169.62 |
| 2025-09-18 | 40.06% | -0.74 | 1.278 | $169.76 |
| 2025-09-17 | 38.56% | +0.42 | 1.324 | $163.48 |
| 2025-09-16 | 40.57% | -0.83 | 1.228 | $162.34 |
| 2025-09-15 | 39.65% | -1.06 | 1.226 | $159.98 |
| 2025-09-12 | 40.40% | -4.73 | 1.159 | $159.87 |
| 2025-09-11 | 37.41% | +0.36 | 1.225 | $165.78 |
| 2025-09-10 | 37.97% | -0.65 | 1.208 | $163.90 |
| 2025-09-09 | 37.35% | +3.14 | 1.184 | $165.69 |
| 2025-09-08 | 40.51% | +0.93 | 1.109 | $168.10 |
| 2025-09-05 | 41.37% | -1.60 | 1.066 | $167.80 |
| 2025-09-04 | 68.78% | -7.85 | 0.758 | $206.09 |
| 2025-09-03 | 67.02% | -0.15 | 0.795 | $198.53 |
| 2025-09-02 | 69.45% | +0.11 | 0.771 | $200.21 |
| 2025-08-29 | 67.17% | +0.60 | 0.767 | $202.20 |
| 2025-08-28 | 63.63% | +4.14 | 0.810 | $205.08 |
| 2025-08-27 | 65.95% | +3.65 | 0.797 | $205.57 |
| 2025-08-26 | 66.41% | -3.03 | 0.782 | $202.53 |
| 2025-08-25 | 66.62% | +1.99 | 0.782 | $202.44 |
| 2025-08-22 | 67.57% | -0.23 | 0.758 | $207.59 |
| 2025-08-21 | 67.28% | +1.00 | 0.792 | $198.18 |
| 2025-08-20 | 66.63% | +0.39 | 0.790 | $198.12 |
| 2025-08-19 | 68.62% | -0.33 | 0.775 | $197.66 |
| 2025-08-18 | 65.72% | +1.02 | 0.800 | $203.62 |
| 2025-08-15 | 65.67% | +1.68 | 0.796 | $198.46 |
| 2025-08-14 | 64.52% | +0.50 | 0.796 | $195.19 |
| 2025-08-13 | 58.43% | +7.85 | 0.860 | $200.49 |
| 2025-08-12 | 61.32% | +2.84 | 0.837 | $192.93 |
| 2025-08-11 | 61.33% | +4.02 | 0.824 | $186.44 |
| 2025-08-08 | 59.83% | +2.72 | 0.834 | $189.43 |
| 2025-08-07 | 50.63% | +1.24 | 0.982 | $191.14 |
| 2025-08-06 | 56.98% | +0.74 | 0.851 | $196.51 |
| 2025-08-05 | 55.16% | +4.84 | 0.888 | $195.07 |
| 2025-08-04 | 46.69% | +0.79 | 1.052 | $196.45 |
| 2025-08-01 | 43.85% | +2.70 | 1.121 | $193.33 |
| 2025-07-31 | 39.64% | +1.19 | 1.194 | $200.53 |
| 2025-07-30 | 40.32% | +0.97 | 1.156 | $206.47 |
| 2025-07-29 | 38.88% | -0.01 | 1.176 | $214.04 |
| 2025-07-28 | 37.03% | +0.05 | 1.221 | $216.59 |
| 2025-07-25 | 34.66% | +1.19 | 1.296 | $219.43 |
| 2025-07-24 | 37.51% | +1.96 | 1.191 | $218.69 |
| 2025-07-23 | 37.22% | +1.33 | 1.282 | $224.03 |
| 2025-07-22 | 37.82% | +0.76 | 1.265 | $223.93 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 338 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 50.23% | 45.48% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 48.75% | 44.39% | 42.08% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 48.63% | 45.40% | 42.09% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 48.50% | 45.14% | 42.44% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 49.03% | 44.70% | 42.57% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 49.24% | 45.19% | 43.08% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 49.58% | 45.23% | 43.39% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 50.10% | 46.15% | 43.78% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 50.14% | 45.97% | 43.65% |
| ATM | 50.24% | 46.14% | 43.69% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 50.69% | 46.50% | 43.32% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 51.03% | 46.62% | 44.96% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 51.53% | 46.88% | 43.19% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 52.48% | 47.34% | 43.42% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 53.04% | 47.61% | 43.98% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 53.77% | 46.95% | 44.51% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 54.82% | 48.71% | 45.10% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 57.35% | 49.86% | 47.15% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 58.61% | 54.12% | 50.17% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $110.63 | 50.24% | 53.04% | 49.03% | +4.02 | +0.79 | 26 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $110.70 | 46.14% | 47.61% | 44.70% | +2.90 | +0.02 | 31 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $110.62 | 43.69% | 43.98% | 42.57% | +1.41 | -0.41 | 34 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $110.48 | 46.40% | 46.63% | 45.73% | +0.89 | -0.22 | 24 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $110.85 | 56.82% | 58.95% | 54.86% | +4.09 | +0.08 | 37 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $111.05 | 57.59% | 59.63% | 56.51% | +3.11 | +0.48 | 18 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $110.88 | 54.34% | 58.22% | 53.04% | +5.18 | +1.29 | 25 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $111.26 | 51.60% | 53.15% | 50.84% | +2.31 | +0.39 | 17 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $112.31 | 49.09% | 50.97% | 49.13% | +1.84 | +0.96 | 22 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $113.33 | 50.23% | 52.70% | 50.00% | +2.71 | +1.12 | 31 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $114.07 | 50.68% | 52.41% | 50.14% | +2.27 | +0.59 | 36 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
11 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $110.63 | 50.24% | $110.74 | 26 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $110.70 | 46.14% | $111.02 | 31 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $110.62 | 43.69% | $111.12 | 34 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $110.48 | 46.40% | $111.26 | 24 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $110.85 | 56.82% | $112.38 | 37 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $111.05 | 57.59% | $112.99 | 18 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $110.88 | 54.34% | $112.87 | 25 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $111.26 | 51.60% | $113.97 | 17 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $112.31 | 49.09% | $117.20 | 22 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $113.33 | 50.23% | $122.24 | 31 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $114.07 | 50.68% | $127.26 | 36 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 55.73%
- 60 天
- 52.16%
- 90 天
- 50.25%
- 180 天
- 49.88%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 1 次
- 17% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 10.6%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 42.1%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | 未说明时间 | 4.6% | -3.4% | 0.73× |
| 2026-09-03 | 收盘后 | 11.7% | -17.4% | 1.48× |
| 2026-06-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-17 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-11 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-04 | 收盘后 | 14.5% | -40.4% | 2.79× |
| 2025-06-05 | 收盘后 | 11.0% | -62.9% | 5.72× |
| 2025-03-27 | 收盘后 | 10.8% | -64.1% | 5.94× |
| 2024-12-05 | 收盘后 | 11.3% | -64.4% | 5.71× |
| 2024-08-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-21 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。