股票 · 期权分析
LYFT 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $17.02
- 30D ATM IV
- 46.87%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 19
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +2.39
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.036
▼ -0.46 pts 较前一交易日
概览
LYFT 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 46.9%,相当于未来一个月约 ±13.4% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 248 个交易日中 19% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 2.39 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-04(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±16.8% 的波动,LYFT 实际平均波动 9.1%,6 次中有 5 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 46.87%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +2.39
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.15
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.036
对应 30 天内约 ±13.4% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.0%。
高于过去一年中 19% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 2.39 个点。
高于过去一年中 70% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.15 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 4%。
高于过去一年中 46% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 248 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 19%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 10%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 19%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 10%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $17.02
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $16.95
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 46.51%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 48.55%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 49.33%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 411,033
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.85
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 303 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 46.87% | +2.39 | 1.036 | $17.02 |
| 2026-11-09 | 47.33% | +0.75 | 1.011 | $16.76 |
| 2026-11-06 | 47.73% | +3.26 | 1.024 | $17.09 |
| 2026-11-05 | 66.91% | +3.13 | 0.812 | $17.84 |
| 2026-11-04 | 63.89% | +3.58 | 0.838 | $18.74 |
| 2026-11-03 | 64.33% | +2.97 | 0.832 | $16.67 |
| 2026-11-02 | 65.11% | +1.14 | 0.821 | $16.62 |
| 2026-10-30 | 67.59% | +0.35 | 0.778 | $16.16 |
| 2026-10-29 | 63.88% | -0.67 | 0.805 | $16.41 |
| 2026-10-28 | 64.00% | +3.13 | 0.797 | $16.34 |
| 2026-10-27 | — | — | — | $16.79 |
| 2026-10-26 | 60.43% | +7.72 | 0.838 | $17.06 |
| 2026-10-23 | 64.76% | -2.35 | 0.778 | $16.94 |
| 2026-10-22 | 63.47% | +0.50 | 0.812 | $17.43 |
| 2026-10-21 | 63.02% | -0.44 | 0.810 | $16.79 |
| 2026-10-20 | 61.37% | -1.19 | 0.820 | $17.25 |
| 2026-10-19 | 63.26% | +0.38 | 0.785 | $16.99 |
| 2026-10-16 | 62.28% | +2.36 | 0.777 | $16.82 |
| 2026-10-15 | 61.86% | +2.46 | 0.797 | $17.16 |
| 2026-10-14 | 62.99% | +2.46 | 0.802 | $16.48 |
| 2026-10-13 | 61.85% | -0.87 | 0.812 | $16.38 |
| 2026-10-09 | 57.34% | +2.81 | 0.873 | $16.22 |
| 2026-10-08 | 55.15% | +3.65 | 0.916 | $16.13 |
| 2026-10-07 | 55.73% | +2.08 | 0.908 | $15.60 |
| 2026-10-06 | 56.66% | +1.98 | 0.896 | $15.76 |
| 2026-10-05 | 55.07% | +1.29 | 0.920 | $15.73 |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.28% | +3.11 | 1.001 | $15.46 |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.31% | +1.18 | 1.014 | $15.21 |
| 2026-09-30 | 49.40% | +1.41 | 1.043 | $15.01 |
| 2026-09-29 | 45.00% | -2.09 | 1.130 | $15.07 |
| 2026-09-28 | 45.28% | -0.67 | 1.134 | $14.88 |
| 2026-09-25 | 49.29% | +0.89 | 1.047 | $14.87 |
| 2026-09-24 | 43.80% | -1.12 | 1.167 | $14.75 |
| 2026-09-23 | 43.96% | -0.32 | 1.207 | $14.77 |
| 2026-09-22 | 44.36% | +0.17 | 1.140 | $14.90 |
| 2026-09-21 | 43.81% | +0.15 | 1.180 | $15.27 |
| 2026-09-18 | 42.69% | +0.18 | 1.187 | $15.10 |
| 2026-09-17 | 44.75% | +1.45 | 1.177 | $15.50 |
| 2025-10-22 | 82.85% | -1.20 | 0.779 | $20.26 |
| 2025-10-21 | 83.27% | -0.48 | 0.766 | $20.64 |
| 2025-10-20 | 81.34% | -0.90 | 0.792 | $20.21 |
| 2025-10-17 | 83.80% | -0.57 | 0.782 | $19.53 |
| 2025-10-16 | 87.21% | +0.77 | 0.754 | $19.87 |
| 2025-10-15 | 84.24% | +0.65 | 0.772 | $20.00 |
| 2025-10-14 | 80.91% | +1.75 | 0.805 | $20.13 |
| 2025-10-10 | 82.98% | +0.63 | 0.793 | $19.25 |
| 2025-10-09 | 81.38% | -2.04 | 0.784 | $19.72 |
| 2025-10-08 | 80.67% | -5.04 | 0.793 | $21.16 |
| 2025-10-07 | 79.97% | -1.00 | 0.809 | $21.18 |
| 2025-10-06 | 76.43% | +0.13 | 0.835 | $21.74 |
| 2025-10-03 | 63.62% | -2.02 | 0.997 | $21.99 |
| 2025-10-02 | 57.66% | -0.12 | 1.103 | $22.61 |
| 2025-10-01 | 53.45% | +1.34 | 1.185 | $21.82 |
| 2025-09-30 | 49.48% | +2.46 | 1.274 | $22.01 |
| 2025-09-29 | 51.37% | -0.82 | 1.217 | $22.93 |
| 2025-09-26 | 50.77% | -1.70 | 1.211 | $21.87 |
| 2025-09-25 | 54.18% | -2.25 | 1.180 | $21.57 |
| 2025-09-24 | 54.33% | -3.17 | 1.187 | $22.06 |
| 2025-09-23 | 53.44% | -2.40 | 1.202 | $22.08 |
| 2025-09-22 | 58.02% | -6.13 | 1.121 | $22.63 |
| 2025-09-19 | 56.52% | -8.77 | 1.134 | $22.58 |
| 2025-09-18 | 56.81% | -6.17 | 1.164 | $21.96 |
| 2025-09-17 | 57.39% | -9.92 | 1.122 | $22.84 |
| 2025-09-16 | 59.15% | -7.38 | 1.114 | $20.19 |
| 2025-09-15 | 56.65% | -5.45 | 1.110 | $20.44 |
| 2025-09-12 | 48.38% | -4.27 | 1.235 | $18.62 |
| 2025-09-11 | 46.40% | -5.15 | 1.286 | $18.32 |
| 2025-09-10 | 49.96% | -3.32 | 1.225 | $18.96 |
| 2025-09-09 | 48.52% | -2.70 | 1.227 | $18.39 |
| 2025-09-08 | 48.29% | -1.87 | 1.237 | $17.71 |
| 2025-09-05 | 46.92% | -1.35 | 1.266 | $16.66 |
| 2025-09-04 | 46.33% | -2.51 | 1.261 | $16.79 |
| 2025-09-03 | 46.73% | -3.69 | 1.263 | $16.92 |
| 2025-09-02 | 48.39% | -2.20 | 1.227 | $16.80 |
| 2025-08-29 | 45.65% | -1.32 | 1.284 | $16.22 |
| 2025-08-28 | 46.12% | -5.19 | 1.275 | $16.14 |
| 2025-08-27 | 45.60% | -5.29 | 1.270 | $16.25 |
| 2025-08-26 | 47.70% | -2.44 | 1.231 | $16.80 |
| 2025-08-25 | 47.79% | -3.58 | 1.233 | $17.05 |
| 2025-08-22 | 47.02% | -2.71 | 1.225 | $17.01 |
| 2025-08-21 | 46.63% | -2.80 | 1.252 | $15.81 |
| 2025-08-20 | 46.15% | -2.29 | 1.251 | $15.57 |
| 2025-08-19 | 44.77% | -3.95 | 1.249 | $15.57 |
| 2025-08-18 | 44.48% | -3.84 | 1.317 | $16.02 |
| 2025-08-15 | 46.16% | -3.89 | 1.228 | $15.82 |
| 2025-08-14 | 42.98% | -0.65 | 1.238 | $14.62 |
| 2025-08-13 | 42.95% | -2.19 | 1.217 | $14.58 |
| 2025-08-12 | 41.49% | -0.13 | 1.217 | $13.88 |
| 2025-08-11 | 42.03% | -0.58 | 1.207 | $13.46 |
| 2025-08-08 | 41.23% | -1.81 | 1.224 | $13.41 |
| 2025-08-07 | 43.94% | -0.32 | 1.144 | $14.21 |
| 2025-08-06 | 73.36% | -2.04 | 0.839 | $13.99 |
| 2025-08-05 | 75.24% | -0.34 | 0.813 | $14.51 |
| 2025-08-04 | 75.09% | -0.08 | 0.824 | $14.08 |
| 2025-08-01 | 76.43% | -1.71 | 0.807 | $13.62 |
| 2025-07-31 | 73.54% | -3.60 | 0.816 | $14.06 |
| 2025-07-30 | 72.61% | -3.77 | 0.804 | $14.02 |
| 2025-07-29 | 71.80% | -2.78 | 0.797 | $14.04 |
| 2025-07-28 | 72.36% | -1.88 | 0.775 | $14.16 |
| 2025-07-25 | 74.04% | -2.86 | 0.767 | $14.30 |
| 2025-07-24 | 73.76% | -4.05 | 0.769 | $14.38 |
| 2025-07-23 | 73.59% | -5.28 | 0.763 | $14.73 |
| 2025-07-22 | 72.85% | -3.92 | 0.757 | $14.86 |
| 2025-07-21 | 72.16% | -1.05 | 0.767 | $14.77 |
| 2025-07-18 | 70.67% | -1.77 | 0.757 | $14.76 |
| 2025-07-17 | 70.92% | -1.69 | 0.759 | $14.76 |
| 2025-07-16 | 71.64% | -0.86 | 0.763 | $14.93 |
| 2025-07-15 | 71.73% | -2.66 | 0.763 | $14.88 |
| 2025-07-14 | 71.98% | -1.69 | 0.762 | $14.92 |
| 2025-07-11 | 70.66% | -0.01 | 0.777 | $14.91 |
| 2025-07-10 | 75.68% | +1.69 | 0.743 | $15.32 |
| 2025-07-09 | 66.70% | -2.29 | 0.839 | $15.66 |
| 2025-07-08 | 66.54% | -1.00 | 0.857 | $16.45 |
| 2025-07-07 | 69.22% | -2.49 | 0.834 | $16.07 |
| 2025-07-03 | 58.29% | -1.28 | 0.971 | $16.15 |
| 2025-07-02 | 55.05% | -3.13 | 1.029 | $15.71 |
| 2025-07-01 | 54.92% | -1.37 | 1.041 | $16.19 |
| 2025-06-30 | 48.37% | -1.32 | 1.184 | $15.76 |
| 2025-06-27 | 46.27% | +0.49 | 1.216 | $15.72 |
| 2025-06-26 | 45.34% | +0.42 | 1.251 | $15.85 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 303 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 303 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | — | 57.30% | 52.80% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 54.07% | 50.85% | 48.07% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 54.52% | 49.25% | 47.38% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 55.19% | 48.96% | 47.26% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 55.51% | 48.81% | 47.48% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 55.44% | 48.70% | 47.64% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 55.31% | 48.65% | 47.67% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 55.18% | 48.91% | 47.63% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 55.10% | 49.49% | 46.91% |
| ATM | 55.28% | 50.05% | 46.25% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 55.94% | 50.49% | 45.91% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 56.83% | 50.94% | 45.70% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 57.61% | 51.53% | 46.42% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 57.78% | 52.49% | 48.74% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 57.06% | 53.15% | 49.32% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 55.86% | 53.22% | 49.56% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 54.73% | 53.25% | 50.43% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 55.14% | 53.22% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $16.90 | 55.28% | 57.06% | 55.51% | +1.56 | +1.01 | 7 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $16.92 | 50.05% | 53.15% | 48.81% | +4.33 | +0.93 | 11 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $16.90 | 46.25% | 49.32% | 47.48% | +1.84 | +2.15 | 11 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $16.92 | 46.91% | 49.53% | 45.98% | +3.55 | +0.84 | 14 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $16.95 | 46.87% | 48.05% | 45.81% | +2.24 | +0.06 | 11 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $16.98 | 45.07% | 46.57% | 45.23% | +1.33 | +0.83 | 12 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $16.97 | 46.53% | 48.67% | 45.63% | +3.04 | +0.62 | 11 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $17.02 | 46.51% | 46.54% | 44.98% | +1.56 | -0.75 | 15 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $17.14 | 50.18% | 52.54% | 49.67% | +2.87 | +0.93 | 16 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $17.19 | 49.21% | 51.73% | 48.35% | +3.39 | +0.83 | 16 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $17.34 | 49.48% | 52.10% | 48.84% | +3.27 | +0.99 | 18 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $17.43 | 52.20% | 52.05% | 51.40% | +0.65 | -0.47 | 11 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $16.90 | 55.28% | $16.92 | 7 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $16.92 | 50.05% | $16.98 | 11 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $16.90 | 46.25% | $16.98 | 11 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $16.92 | 46.91% | $17.05 | 14 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $16.95 | 46.87% | $17.11 | 11 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $16.98 | 45.07% | $17.16 | 12 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $16.97 | 46.53% | $17.20 | 11 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $17.02 | 46.51% | $17.35 | 15 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $17.14 | 50.18% | $17.92 | 16 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $17.19 | 49.21% | $18.11 | 16 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $17.34 | 49.48% | $18.67 | 18 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $17.43 | 52.20% | $19.58 | 11 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 46.87%
- 60 天
- 46.51%
- 90 天
- 48.55%
- 180 天
- 49.33%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 303 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 5 次
- 83% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 16.8%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 9.1%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | 收盘后 | 13.6% | -4.2% | 0.31× |
| 2026-11-04 | 未说明时间 | 13.9% | -4.8% | 0.35× |
| 2026-08-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-10 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-06 | 收盘后 | 16.6% | +10.8% | 0.65× |
| 2025-05-08 | 收盘后 | 15.3% | +19.2% | 1.26× |
| 2025-02-11 | 收盘后 | 20.9% | +7.7% | 0.37× |
| 2024-11-06 | 收盘后 | 20.8% | +7.6% | 0.37× |
| 2024-08-07 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-13 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-08 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。