股票 · 期权分析
MRVL 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $154.39
- 30D ATM IV
- 82.27%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 97
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +6.85
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.853
▲ +3.44 pts 较前一交易日
概览
MRVL 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 82.3%,相当于未来一个月约 ±23.6% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 97% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 6.85 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 10% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 15%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2026-11-27(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 7 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±11.6% 的波动,MRVL 实际平均波动 149.7%,7 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 82.27%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +6.85
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.70
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.853
对应 30 天内约 ±23.6% 的波动，平常一天约 ±5.2%。
高于过去一年中 97% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 6.85 个点。
高于过去一年中 90% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.70 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 15%。
高于过去一年中 20% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 97%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 64%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 98%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 67%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $154.39
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $154.15
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 73.55%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 70.17%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 67.66%
- 使用的到期日数
- 14
- 总未平仓量
- 1,547,434
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.36
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 338 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 82.27% | +6.85 | 0.853 | $154.39 |
| 2026-11-09 | 78.83% | +7.77 | 0.869 | $154.60 |
| 2026-11-06 | 86.81% | +10.42 | 0.835 | $141.20 |
| 2026-11-05 | 89.68% | +14.25 | 0.824 | $133.55 |
| 2026-11-04 | 77.19% | +4.22 | 0.855 | $159.80 |
| 2026-11-03 | 75.79% | +3.72 | 0.862 | $171.97 |
| 2026-11-02 | 78.59% | +4.39 | 0.856 | $171.41 |
| 2026-10-30 | 69.90% | +4.62 | 0.934 | $196.40 |
| 2026-10-29 | 63.93% | +0.64 | 0.984 | $218.34 |
| 2026-10-28 | 64.24% | +1.92 | 0.999 | $251.65 |
| 2026-10-27 | 64.58% | +2.33 | 0.985 | $243.57 |
| 2026-10-26 | 64.63% | +3.33 | 0.988 | $233.78 |
| 2026-10-23 | 65.61% | +3.72 | 0.973 | $228.51 |
| 2026-10-22 | 66.97% | +4.27 | 0.953 | $223.47 |
| 2026-10-21 | 63.34% | +2.68 | 0.993 | $244.76 |
| 2026-10-20 | 64.50% | +3.17 | 0.981 | $240.42 |
| 2026-10-19 | 62.88% | +3.23 | 0.985 | $237.09 |
| 2026-10-16 | 63.12% | +4.26 | 0.971 | $227.83 |
| 2026-10-15 | 61.90% | +0.77 | 0.986 | $241.24 |
| 2026-10-14 | 62.89% | +0.38 | 0.972 | $245.28 |
| 2026-10-13 | 60.62% | -0.61 | 1.009 | $268.73 |
| 2026-10-09 | 57.27% | -1.46 | 1.056 | $275.28 |
| 2026-10-08 | 60.16% | +0.17 | 1.031 | $274.66 |
| 2026-10-07 | 60.05% | -1.63 | 1.046 | $284.68 |
| 2026-10-06 | 59.35% | -2.47 | 1.058 | $287.01 |
| 2026-10-05 | 61.44% | -1.77 | 1.036 | $271.25 |
| 2026-10-02 | 61.37% | -1.44 | 1.061 | $272.29 |
| 2026-10-01 | 64.35% | -1.37 | 1.031 | $268.08 |
| 2026-09-30 | 65.20% | -1.63 | 1.023 | $264.21 |
| 2026-09-29 | 65.65% | -2.34 | 1.017 | $263.27 |
| 2026-09-28 | 64.99% | -2.22 | 1.023 | $251.90 |
| 2026-09-25 | 64.92% | -2.57 | 1.042 | $261.94 |
| 2026-09-24 | 66.39% | -2.55 | 1.033 | $258.95 |
| 2026-09-23 | 66.87% | -2.55 | 1.036 | $260.90 |
| 2026-09-22 | 68.43% | -2.52 | 1.031 | $262.36 |
| 2026-09-21 | 70.36% | -3.18 | 1.007 | $257.38 |
| 2026-09-18 | 64.75% | -2.60 | 1.032 | $244.25 |
| 2026-09-17 | 65.84% | -0.42 | 1.021 | $240.76 |
| 2026-09-16 | 66.33% | -0.46 | 1.018 | $229.71 |
| 2026-09-15 | 65.19% | -1.35 | 1.006 | $221.70 |
| 2026-09-14 | 66.17% | -3.25 | 1.011 | $218.82 |
| 2026-09-11 | 64.70% | -1.57 | 1.029 | $236.10 |
| 2026-09-10 | 65.90% | -3.27 | 1.028 | $226.96 |
| 2026-09-09 | 67.31% | -2.63 | 1.019 | $235.01 |
| 2026-09-08 | 66.84% | -3.46 | 1.015 | $225.41 |
| 2026-09-04 | 60.58% | -1.95 | 1.068 | $223.55 |
| 2026-09-03 | 56.71% | -1.56 | 1.075 | $208.83 |
| 2026-09-02 | 56.12% | -2.82 | 1.080 | $206.48 |
| 2026-09-01 | 57.29% | -3.60 | 1.080 | $210.39 |
| 2026-08-31 | 57.36% | -2.51 | 1.103 | $211.66 |
| 2026-08-28 | 58.86% | -4.60 | 1.086 | $216.62 |
| 2026-08-27 | 76.29% | -4.12 | 0.953 | $241.45 |
| 2026-08-26 | 79.90% | -1.03 | 0.958 | $245.11 |
| 2026-08-25 | 78.72% | -2.28 | 0.970 | $240.38 |
| 2026-08-24 | 79.57% | -3.26 | 0.966 | $229.29 |
| 2025-10-22 | 59.14% | +3.08 | 1.023 | $81.05 |
| 2025-10-21 | 56.93% | -1.45 | 1.039 | $84.26 |
| 2025-10-20 | 64.67% | -1.44 | 0.933 | $85.84 |
| 2025-10-17 | 59.35% | +0.22 | 1.027 | $87.95 |
| 2025-10-16 | 65.88% | +0.07 | 0.946 | $88.23 |
| 2025-10-15 | 62.35% | -2.04 | 0.993 | $88.89 |
| 2025-10-14 | 60.46% | -6.20 | 1.009 | $86.22 |
| 2025-10-10 | 63.63% | -0.07 | 0.991 | $85.61 |
| 2025-10-09 | 57.98% | -1.53 | 1.030 | $90.68 |
| 2025-10-08 | 59.14% | -6.31 | 1.005 | $92.50 |
| 2025-10-07 | 54.30% | +0.43 | 1.059 | $86.97 |
| 2025-10-06 | 54.45% | -3.51 | 1.059 | $88.92 |
| 2025-10-03 | 50.84% | +1.55 | 1.072 | $86.22 |
| 2025-10-02 | 52.44% | -1.61 | 1.068 | $86.20 |
| 2025-10-01 | 52.16% | -2.10 | 1.067 | $83.89 |
| 2025-09-30 | 51.01% | -0.35 | 1.078 | $84.07 |
| 2025-09-29 | 50.56% | -0.87 | 1.086 | $82.39 |
| 2025-09-26 | 50.40% | -1.30 | 1.097 | $83.17 |
| 2025-09-25 | 54.34% | -1.40 | 1.052 | $83.81 |
| 2025-09-24 | 50.58% | -2.11 | 1.071 | $80.09 |
| 2025-09-23 | 53.67% | -2.98 | 1.033 | $74.62 |
| 2025-09-22 | 53.90% | -5.63 | 1.009 | $75.53 |
| 2025-09-19 | 51.32% | -3.86 | 1.072 | $74.26 |
| 2025-09-18 | 54.78% | -1.12 | 1.014 | $74.23 |
| 2025-09-17 | 50.20% | -1.63 | 1.051 | $70.98 |
| 2025-09-16 | 46.91% | -1.13 | 1.095 | $68.86 |
| 2025-09-15 | 44.81% | -0.07 | 1.123 | $67.43 |
| 2025-09-12 | 42.27% | +0.98 | 1.148 | $67.35 |
| 2025-09-11 | 42.39% | -0.12 | 1.125 | $66.59 |
| 2025-09-10 | 44.45% | +0.93 | 1.091 | $67.10 |
| 2025-09-09 | 42.54% | +3.59 | 1.114 | $66.84 |
| 2025-09-08 | 42.63% | +0.08 | 1.110 | $66.00 |
| 2025-09-05 | 42.59% | +0.29 | 1.090 | $63.33 |
| 2025-09-04 | 43.58% | -1.46 | 1.065 | $64.10 |
| 2025-09-03 | 42.99% | -1.93 | 1.084 | $62.31 |
| 2025-09-02 | 46.51% | +2.27 | 1.007 | $64.60 |
| 2025-08-29 | 45.09% | -1.19 | 1.057 | $62.87 |
| 2025-08-28 | 60.45% | +2.20 | 0.854 | $77.23 |
| 2025-08-27 | 63.65% | +0.48 | 0.838 | $74.79 |
| 2025-08-26 | 64.83% | -1.11 | 0.813 | $74.26 |
| 2025-08-25 | 67.92% | -2.00 | 0.792 | $72.95 |
| 2025-08-22 | 65.08% | +1.66 | 0.829 | $73.00 |
| 2025-08-21 | 66.81% | +3.30 | 0.810 | $71.21 |
| 2025-08-20 | 66.45% | +1.72 | 0.814 | $71.22 |
| 2025-08-19 | 66.35% | +1.49 | 0.811 | $72.07 |
| 2025-08-18 | 64.33% | -1.04 | 0.825 | $76.74 |
| 2025-08-15 | 64.44% | -1.61 | 0.829 | $76.19 |
| 2025-08-14 | 65.69% | -0.34 | 0.809 | $79.04 |
| 2025-08-13 | 66.71% | -5.14 | 0.804 | $79.32 |
| 2025-08-12 | 66.03% | +1.98 | 0.796 | $77.81 |
| 2025-08-11 | 64.73% | -1.40 | 0.822 | $77.28 |
| 2025-08-08 | 62.74% | +1.57 | 0.844 | $77.34 |
| 2025-08-07 | 65.51% | +1.71 | 0.825 | $75.85 |
| 2025-08-06 | 65.62% | +0.23 | 0.818 | $75.32 |
| 2025-08-05 | 66.82% | +1.94 | 0.826 | $76.63 |
| 2025-08-04 | 64.62% | +3.25 | 0.829 | $76.53 |
| 2025-08-01 | 67.47% | -1.66 | 0.835 | $74.45 |
| 2025-07-31 | 69.09% | -1.44 | 0.795 | $80.37 |
| 2025-07-30 | 63.74% | +0.60 | 0.854 | $81.74 |
| 2025-07-29 | 53.63% | +8.77 | 0.991 | $76.34 |
| 2025-07-28 | 56.05% | -2.15 | 0.938 | $75.91 |
| 2025-07-25 | 52.00% | +0.21 | 1.006 | $74.21 |
| 2025-07-24 | 50.51% | -0.30 | 1.048 | $74.04 |
| 2025-07-23 | 49.53% | -0.49 | 1.079 | $73.27 |
| 2025-07-22 | 57.68% | -4.89 | 0.911 | $71.99 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 338 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 102.29% | 89.93% | 79.26% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 101.75% | 89.15% | 78.49% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 102.49% | 89.16% | 78.30% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 102.52% | 89.27% | 78.35% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 102.70% | 90.01% | 78.93% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 103.10% | 90.29% | 78.77% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 104.75% | 90.01% | 79.01% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 105.38% | 90.72% | 79.61% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 105.48% | 91.05% | 80.19% |
| ATM | 105.64% | 91.59% | 80.65% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 106.24% | 92.22% | 81.45% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 106.95% | 92.59% | 81.68% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 106.42% | 93.71% | 82.79% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 108.46% | 94.90% | 83.60% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 110.00% | 96.13% | 84.93% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 111.13% | 97.85% | 85.47% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 112.49% | 99.76% | 87.88% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 114.29% | 102.53% | 90.59% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 118.62% | 108.38% | 95.23% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $153.53 | 105.64% | 110.00% | 102.70% | +7.30 | +0.71 | 70 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $153.63 | 91.59% | 96.13% | 90.01% | +6.12 | +1.48 | 83 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $153.80 | 80.65% | 84.93% | 78.93% | +6.00 | +1.28 | 62 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $153.90 | 85.62% | 89.32% | 83.09% | +6.23 | +0.58 | 39 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $154.20 | 81.83% | 86.02% | 79.08% | +6.94 | +0.72 | 34 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $154.27 | 78.69% | 83.62% | 76.65% | +6.97 | +1.44 | 48 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $154.45 | 76.91% | 81.37% | 74.98% | +6.39 | +1.26 | 29 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $154.82 | 72.68% | 76.55% | 70.86% | +5.69 | +1.03 | 53 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $155.53 | 69.41% | 71.97% | 67.81% | +4.16 | +0.48 | 40 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $156.07 | 70.10% | 72.73% | 68.59% | +4.14 | +0.56 | 56 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $156.83 | 68.70% | 71.00% | 67.00% | +4.00 | +0.29 | 49 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $157.65 | 67.20% | 69.60% | 66.10% | +3.49 | +0.65 | 50 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $158.02 | 67.98% | 69.90% | 66.57% | +3.33 | +0.26 | 62 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $159.92 | 66.86% | 68.95% | 65.94% | +3.01 | +0.58 | 54 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
14 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $153.53 | 105.64% | $154.23 | 70 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $153.63 | 91.59% | $155.40 | 83 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $153.80 | 80.65% | $156.15 | 62 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $153.90 | 85.62% | $157.65 | 39 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $154.20 | 81.83% | $158.65 | 34 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $154.27 | 78.69% | $159.33 | 48 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $154.45 | 76.91% | $160.05 | 29 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $154.82 | 72.68% | $162.40 | 53 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $155.53 | 69.41% | $166.25 | 40 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $156.07 | 70.10% | $170.23 | 56 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $156.83 | 68.70% | $173.59 | 49 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $157.65 | 67.20% | $177.53 | 50 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $158.02 | 67.98% | $181.52 | 62 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $159.92 | 66.86% | $193.47 | 54 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 82.27%
- 60 天
- 73.55%
- 90 天
- 70.17%
- 180 天
- 67.66%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 7 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 7 次中 1 次
- 14% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 11.6%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 149.7%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | 开盘前 | 11.7% | -12.7% | 1.09× |
| 2026-08-27 | 收盘后 | 13.0% | -10.3% | 0.79× |
| 2026-05-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-28 | 收盘后 | 11.3% | +196.9% | 17.35× |
| 2025-05-29 | 收盘后 | 12.7% | +259.8% | 20.47× |
| 2025-05-06 | 收盘后 | 6.2% | +274.5% | 44.03× |
| 2025-03-05 | 收盘后 | 14.6% | +154.4% | 10.60× |
| 2024-12-03 | 收盘后 | 11.6% | +139.1% | 12.04× |
| 2024-08-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。