股票 · 期权分析
MS 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $187.56
- 30D ATM IV
- 31.18%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 70
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +5.26
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.011
▼ -1.16 pts 较前一交易日
概览
MS 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 31.2%,相当于未来一个月约 ±8.9% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 70% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 5.26 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-13(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 8 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±4.8% 的波动,MS 实际平均波动 2.6%,8 次中有 7 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 31.18%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +5.26
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.49
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.011
对应 30 天内约 ±8.9% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.0%。
高于过去一年中 70% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 5.26 个点。
高于过去一年中 80% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.49 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 1%。
高于过去一年中 49% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 70%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 23%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 76%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 23%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $187.56
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $188.01
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 31.60%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 31.52%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 31.54%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 283,088
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.20
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 348 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 31.18% | +5.26 | 1.011 | $187.56 |
| 2026-11-09 | 32.34% | +4.11 | 0.969 | $187.10 |
| 2026-11-06 | 33.74% | +5.19 | 0.969 | $181.44 |
| 2026-11-05 | 35.46% | +6.24 | 0.941 | $182.44 |
| 2026-11-04 | 29.93% | +3.20 | 1.002 | $193.97 |
| 2026-11-03 | 31.74% | +3.44 | 0.994 | $186.09 |
| 2026-11-02 | 31.62% | +4.25 | 0.997 | $185.73 |
| 2026-10-30 | 31.78% | +3.59 | 1.002 | $184.30 |
| 2026-10-29 | 29.17% | +2.87 | 1.024 | $190.00 |
| 2026-10-28 | 29.50% | +3.14 | 1.003 | $190.13 |
| 2026-10-27 | 29.18% | +3.70 | 1.031 | $186.91 |
| 2026-10-26 | 30.77% | +3.25 | 0.996 | $183.49 |
| 2026-10-23 | 30.75% | +2.80 | 0.995 | $179.49 |
| 2026-10-22 | 31.34% | +3.52 | 0.978 | $183.97 |
| 2026-10-21 | 28.83% | +3.74 | 1.008 | $187.01 |
| 2026-10-20 | 28.39% | +2.88 | 1.017 | $180.40 |
| 2026-10-19 | 28.15% | +3.29 | 1.017 | $178.47 |
| 2026-10-16 | 29.35% | +3.17 | 1.006 | $180.57 |
| 2026-10-15 | 28.23% | +2.31 | 1.012 | $182.10 |
| 2026-10-14 | 29.10% | +2.00 | 0.985 | $181.51 |
| 2026-10-13 | 31.94% | +1.64 | 0.932 | $186.64 |
| 2026-10-09 | 32.54% | +1.83 | 0.920 | $190.02 |
| 2026-10-08 | 32.94% | +2.72 | 0.919 | $187.44 |
| 2026-10-07 | 32.49% | +2.28 | 0.929 | $189.71 |
| 2026-10-06 | 32.73% | +0.73 | 0.936 | $191.02 |
| 2026-10-05 | 33.12% | +2.40 | 0.917 | $190.19 |
| 2026-10-02 | 33.85% | +2.31 | 0.911 | $190.31 |
| 2026-10-01 | 34.69% | +2.47 | 0.910 | $188.01 |
| 2026-09-30 | 34.22% | +2.71 | 0.903 | $188.08 |
| 2026-09-29 | 34.61% | +2.84 | 0.898 | $192.76 |
| 2026-09-28 | 35.31% | +2.93 | 0.891 | $193.64 |
| 2026-09-25 | 33.78% | +2.00 | 0.934 | $196.31 |
| 2026-09-24 | 34.38% | +2.56 | 0.928 | $196.32 |
| 2026-09-23 | 33.82% | +1.70 | 0.949 | $198.39 |
| 2026-09-22 | 34.02% | +1.56 | 0.941 | $200.18 |
| 2026-09-21 | 33.25% | +1.92 | 0.961 | $206.12 |
| 2026-09-18 | 33.16% | +2.35 | 0.960 | $202.58 |
| 2026-09-17 | 33.52% | +1.95 | 0.959 | $203.52 |
| 2026-09-16 | 35.22% | +2.05 | 0.934 | $202.42 |
| 2026-09-15 | 34.32% | +2.39 | 0.959 | $206.28 |
| 2026-09-14 | 33.48% | +2.40 | 0.972 | $206.58 |
| 2026-09-11 | 29.79% | +1.98 | 1.064 | $214.38 |
| 2026-09-10 | 30.44% | +1.73 | 1.051 | $212.66 |
| 2026-09-09 | 29.49% | +0.92 | 1.084 | $215.35 |
| 2026-09-08 | 29.02% | +1.52 | 1.111 | $216.24 |
| 2026-09-04 | 29.38% | +1.22 | 1.064 | $217.72 |
| 2026-09-03 | 27.38% | +2.33 | 1.104 | $217.15 |
| 2026-09-02 | 28.61% | +3.92 | 1.076 | $211.82 |
| 2026-09-01 | 28.45% | +1.35 | 1.072 | $211.04 |
| 2026-08-31 | 27.21% | +1.28 | 1.093 | $213.32 |
| 2026-08-28 | 27.34% | +1.14 | 1.091 | $214.77 |
| 2026-08-27 | 27.92% | +3.69 | 1.128 | $214.86 |
| 2026-08-26 | 28.74% | +1.57 | 1.081 | $214.08 |
| 2026-08-25 | 29.92% | +3.26 | 1.042 | $216.77 |
| 2026-08-24 | 28.57% | +2.21 | 1.077 | $214.08 |
| 2026-08-21 | 28.39% | +1.42 | 1.104 | $214.20 |
| 2026-08-20 | 28.95% | +2.07 | 1.076 | $207.45 |
| 2026-08-19 | 29.11% | +1.66 | 1.058 | $214.23 |
| 2026-08-18 | 27.44% | +1.72 | 1.093 | $217.55 |
| 2026-08-17 | 28.47% | +0.88 | 1.121 | $218.21 |
| 2025-10-22 | 27.87% | +5.43 | 1.014 | $158.12 |
| 2025-10-21 | 27.29% | +5.61 | 1.012 | $159.23 |
| 2025-10-20 | 27.56% | +5.58 | 0.995 | $161.97 |
| 2025-10-17 | 29.90% | +4.97 | 0.968 | $158.67 |
| 2025-10-16 | 33.93% | +5.46 | 0.886 | $160.02 |
| 2025-10-15 | 27.64% | +1.79 | 0.995 | $162.65 |
| 2025-10-14 | 32.87% | +2.23 | 0.889 | $155.34 |
| 2025-10-10 | 35.65% | +4.32 | 0.863 | $151.86 |
| 2025-10-09 | 31.70% | +4.73 | 0.893 | $156.27 |
| 2025-10-08 | 31.83% | +3.89 | 0.895 | $155.65 |
| 2025-10-07 | 29.97% | +6.00 | 0.940 | $155.97 |
| 2025-10-06 | 31.01% | +4.74 | 0.910 | $158.09 |
| 2025-10-03 | 30.84% | +5.01 | 0.906 | $157.59 |
| 2025-10-02 | 31.29% | +4.39 | 0.894 | $155.30 |
| 2025-10-01 | 31.02% | +2.16 | 0.910 | $156.89 |
| 2025-09-30 | 31.81% | +2.71 | 0.882 | $158.96 |
| 2025-09-29 | 30.64% | +4.74 | 0.894 | $161.16 |
| 2025-09-26 | 29.19% | +4.13 | 0.929 | $160.11 |
| 2025-09-25 | 30.61% | +4.05 | 0.913 | $158.95 |
| 2025-09-24 | 29.90% | +5.11 | 0.923 | $157.88 |
| 2025-09-23 | 30.96% | +3.64 | 0.889 | $160.76 |
| 2025-09-22 | 29.44% | +4.02 | 0.902 | $160.71 |
| 2025-09-19 | 28.91% | +4.19 | 0.929 | $159.91 |
| 2025-09-18 | 28.35% | +3.62 | 0.926 | $159.24 |
| 2025-09-17 | 28.36% | +3.55 | 0.927 | $157.41 |
| 2025-09-16 | 28.24% | +3.84 | 0.937 | $155.81 |
| 2025-09-15 | 27.35% | +4.19 | 0.955 | $156.64 |
| 2025-09-12 | 25.03% | +3.85 | 1.039 | $156.39 |
| 2025-09-11 | 24.44% | +4.20 | 1.059 | $156.48 |
| 2025-09-10 | 24.20% | +4.78 | 1.054 | $154.12 |
| 2025-09-09 | 23.90% | +4.68 | 1.042 | $152.22 |
| 2025-09-08 | 23.46% | +4.45 | 1.078 | $148.79 |
| 2025-09-05 | 23.64% | +4.65 | 1.088 | $148.09 |
| 2025-09-04 | 23.56% | +4.24 | 1.087 | $150.53 |
| 2025-09-03 | 24.50% | +4.69 | 1.056 | $148.53 |
| 2025-09-02 | 24.01% | +4.88 | 1.075 | $148.85 |
| 2025-08-29 | 22.07% | +4.10 | 1.142 | $150.48 |
| 2025-08-28 | 21.57% | +3.92 | 1.149 | $150.18 |
| 2025-08-27 | 22.31% | +3.95 | 1.120 | $149.38 |
| 2025-08-26 | 21.28% | +3.39 | 1.162 | $148.97 |
| 2025-08-25 | 22.24% | +4.11 | 1.138 | $147.65 |
| 2025-08-22 | 21.77% | +4.33 | 1.140 | $148.02 |
| 2025-08-21 | 24.36% | +4.55 | 1.063 | $144.04 |
| 2025-08-20 | 23.99% | +5.03 | 1.077 | $144.12 |
| 2025-08-19 | 22.77% | +4.38 | 1.108 | $144.07 |
| 2025-08-18 | 22.35% | +4.11 | 1.124 | $144.78 |
| 2025-08-15 | 22.73% | +3.80 | 1.108 | $144.63 |
| 2025-08-14 | 22.82% | +3.92 | 1.108 | $148.51 |
| 2025-08-13 | 23.15% | +4.28 | 1.085 | $147.76 |
| 2025-08-12 | 21.66% | +3.75 | 1.126 | $147.29 |
| 2025-08-11 | 23.31% | +4.80 | 1.092 | $143.88 |
| 2025-08-08 | 22.87% | +4.79 | 1.099 | $143.18 |
| 2025-08-07 | 25.35% | +3.92 | 1.020 | $140.92 |
| 2025-08-06 | 24.82% | +3.17 | 1.029 | $141.30 |
| 2025-08-05 | 25.02% | +3.94 | 1.035 | $140.46 |
| 2025-08-04 | 22.44% | +5.76 | 1.132 | $141.36 |
| 2025-08-01 | 26.12% | +4.50 | 1.030 | $139.09 |
| 2025-07-31 | 24.13% | +3.82 | 1.058 | $142.46 |
| 2025-07-30 | 22.71% | +4.12 | 1.088 | $144.94 |
| 2025-07-29 | 22.41% | +3.43 | 1.097 | $143.56 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 348 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 37.80% | 34.08% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 37.74% | 32.89% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 37.82% | 32.47% | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 38.02% | 32.51% | 29.57% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 38.34% | 32.75% | 29.62% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 38.70% | 33.09% | 29.83% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 38.72% | 33.41% | 30.22% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 38.10% | 33.69% | 30.51% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 37.48% | 33.88% | 30.91% |
| ATM | 37.40% | 34.06% | 31.58% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 37.57% | 34.55% | 32.11% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 37.85% | 34.96% | 32.53% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 38.13% | 35.03% | 32.84% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 38.47% | 35.19% | 33.00% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 38.93% | 35.79% | 33.27% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 39.82% | 36.52% | 34.05% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 41.29% | 38.57% | 35.78% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 42.85% | 40.68% | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 45.15% | 44.50% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $187.01 | 37.40% | 38.93% | 38.34% | +0.59 | +1.24 | 11 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $187.27 | 34.06% | 35.79% | 32.75% | +3.04 | +0.21 | 17 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $187.47 | 31.58% | 33.27% | 29.62% | +3.65 | -0.14 | 13 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $187.49 | 31.45% | 33.94% | 29.72% | +4.23 | +0.38 | 8 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $188.09 | 31.15% | 34.35% | 28.96% | +5.39 | +0.51 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $187.92 | 31.10% | 34.26% | 29.43% | +4.83 | +0.75 | 12 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $188.32 | 30.97% | 33.99% | 29.01% | +4.99 | +0.53 | 8 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $188.64 | 31.76% | 34.50% | 29.53% | +4.97 | +0.26 | 17 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $188.88 | 31.31% | 34.00% | 29.32% | +4.68 | +0.35 | 22 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $189.90 | 31.90% | 34.45% | 29.21% | +5.24 | -0.07 | 23 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $190.72 | 31.09% | 34.47% | 29.58% | +4.89 | +0.94 | 29 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $191.69 | 31.36% | 34.04% | 29.87% | +4.17 | +0.60 | 29 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $187.01 | 37.40% | $187.12 | 11 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $187.27 | 34.06% | $187.57 | 17 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $187.47 | 31.58% | $187.91 | 13 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $187.49 | 31.45% | $188.10 | 8 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $188.09 | 31.15% | $188.87 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $187.92 | 31.10% | $188.86 | 12 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $188.32 | 30.97% | $189.41 | 8 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $188.64 | 31.76% | $190.37 | 17 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $188.88 | 31.31% | $192.18 | 22 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $189.90 | 31.90% | $194.10 | 23 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $190.72 | 31.09% | $196.33 | 29 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $191.69 | 31.36% | $199.89 | 29 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 31.18%
- 60 天
- 31.60%
- 90 天
- 31.52%
- 180 天
- 31.54%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 8 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 8 次中 7 次
- 88% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 4.8%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 2.6%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 未说明时间 | 2.5% | -1.6% | 0.64× |
| 2026-10-15 | 未说明时间 | 1.9% | -0.8% | 0.44× |
| 2026-10-14 | 开盘前 | 2.9% | +0.3% | 0.11× |
| 2026-07-15 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-15 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-15 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-15 | 开盘前 | 5.3% | +4.7% | 0.89× |
| 2025-07-16 | 开盘前 | 4.6% | -1.3% | 0.28× |
| 2025-04-11 | 开盘前 | 11.4% | +1.4% | 0.13× |
| 2025-01-16 | 开盘前 | 4.3% | +4.0% | 0.94× |
| 2024-10-16 | 开盘前 | 5.4% | +6.5% | 1.21× |
| 2024-07-16 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-16 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-16 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-18 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。