股票 · 期权分析
MSTR 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $121.07
- 30D ATM IV
- 76.73%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 75
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +8.22
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.958
▲ +3.11 pts 较前一交易日
概览
MSTR 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 76.7%,相当于未来一个月约 ±22.0% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 75% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 8.22 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 8% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 4%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-28(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 10 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±11.7% 的波动,MSTR 实际平均波动 28.6%,10 次中有 4 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 76.73%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +8.22
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.99
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.958
对应 30 天内约 ±22.0% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.8%。
高于过去一年中 75% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 8.22 个点。
高于过去一年中 92% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.99 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 4%。
高于过去一年中 4% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 75%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 44%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 57%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 18%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $121.07
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $121.17
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 74.49%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 73.53%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 73.29%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 1,608,010
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.92
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 338 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 76.73% | +8.22 | 0.958 | $121.07 |
| 2026-11-09 | 73.62% | +7.30 | 0.980 | $125.59 |
| 2026-11-06 | 74.34% | +10.19 | 0.985 | $128.93 |
| 2026-11-05 | 78.77% | +12.25 | 0.945 | $129.30 |
| 2026-11-04 | 70.44% | +1.22 | 1.001 | $142.54 |
| 2026-11-03 | 74.37% | +4.69 | 0.970 | $135.63 |
| 2026-11-02 | 76.73% | +5.12 | 0.965 | $130.76 |
| 2026-10-30 | 75.05% | +7.54 | 0.976 | $130.51 |
| 2026-10-29 | 68.57% | +0.95 | 0.998 | $141.62 |
| 2026-10-28 | 70.25% | +2.60 | 0.985 | $145.16 |
| 2026-10-27 | 70.78% | +3.00 | 0.981 | $141.40 |
| 2026-10-26 | 71.69% | +1.09 | 0.981 | $139.82 |
| 2026-10-23 | 71.48% | +1.37 | 0.961 | $146.01 |
| 2026-10-22 | 71.93% | +2.29 | 0.964 | $145.80 |
| 2026-10-21 | 69.47% | -0.15 | 0.992 | $153.48 |
| 2026-10-20 | 69.04% | +1.61 | 0.970 | $142.72 |
| 2026-10-19 | 69.18% | +2.30 | 0.964 | $136.02 |
| 2026-10-16 | 72.04% | +5.64 | 0.957 | $136.83 |
| 2026-10-15 | 70.03% | -0.35 | 0.967 | $151.29 |
| 2026-10-14 | 70.13% | +0.77 | 0.958 | $143.24 |
| 2026-10-13 | 67.00% | -3.26 | 0.986 | $152.18 |
| 2026-10-09 | 64.30% | -2.48 | 1.006 | $154.34 |
| 2026-10-08 | 65.24% | -1.04 | 1.008 | $151.47 |
| 2026-10-07 | 64.22% | -7.47 | 1.018 | $153.37 |
| 2026-10-06 | 63.74% | -4.60 | 1.030 | $164.55 |
| 2026-10-05 | 61.59% | -4.68 | 1.087 | $164.43 |
| 2026-10-02 | 62.41% | -2.57 | 1.066 | $160.01 |
| 2026-10-01 | 67.05% | -5.50 | 1.029 | $160.50 |
| 2026-09-30 | 64.75% | -6.11 | 1.044 | $153.09 |
| 2026-09-29 | 67.13% | -5.18 | 1.032 | $154.67 |
| 2026-09-28 | 66.70% | -6.22 | 1.046 | $157.14 |
| 2026-09-25 | 65.40% | -5.14 | 1.073 | $158.61 |
| 2026-09-24 | 67.92% | -6.84 | 1.052 | $161.61 |
| 2026-09-23 | 69.04% | -6.64 | 1.046 | $162.20 |
| 2026-09-22 | 71.20% | -7.82 | 1.037 | $167.33 |
| 2026-09-21 | 75.84% | -8.22 | 1.009 | $168.50 |
| 2026-09-18 | 70.08% | -7.00 | 1.044 | $153.92 |
| 2026-09-17 | 64.85% | -2.63 | 1.084 | $132.25 |
| 2026-09-16 | 68.52% | -2.20 | 1.059 | $126.18 |
| 2026-09-15 | 71.56% | -3.50 | 1.044 | $129.60 |
| 2026-09-14 | 73.05% | -5.56 | 1.039 | $136.94 |
| 2026-09-11 | 68.77% | -4.78 | 1.094 | $130.97 |
| 2026-09-10 | 71.37% | -5.78 | 1.073 | $128.56 |
| 2026-09-09 | 72.75% | -6.84 | 1.062 | $132.70 |
| 2026-09-08 | 74.90% | -6.74 | 1.040 | $136.52 |
| 2026-09-04 | 74.30% | -8.39 | 1.049 | $142.80 |
| 2026-09-03 | 77.13% | -8.10 | 1.028 | $144.82 |
| 2026-09-02 | 67.83% | -4.19 | 1.090 | $123.19 |
| 2026-09-01 | 69.24% | -4.19 | 1.069 | $124.88 |
| 2026-08-31 | 69.75% | -4.60 | 1.075 | $132.94 |
| 2026-08-28 | 67.64% | -3.74 | 1.090 | $127.31 |
| 2026-08-27 | 75.00% | -7.49 | 1.046 | $137.40 |
| 2026-08-26 | 70.09% | -5.38 | 1.073 | $123.19 |
| 2026-08-25 | 74.09% | -6.30 | 1.059 | $126.83 |
| 2026-08-24 | 77.06% | -6.82 | 1.043 | $122.63 |
| 2025-10-22 | 70.12% | +11.70 | 0.969 | $280.81 |
| 2025-10-21 | 62.98% | +6.46 | 1.029 | $301.91 |
| 2025-10-20 | 64.43% | +9.14 | 1.014 | $296.61 |
| 2025-10-17 | 69.80% | +12.38 | 0.992 | $289.87 |
| 2025-10-16 | 73.41% | +15.65 | 0.960 | $283.84 |
| 2025-10-15 | 69.10% | +4.38 | 0.961 | $296.76 |
| 2025-10-14 | 67.82% | +10.83 | 0.981 | $300.67 |
| 2025-10-10 | 68.40% | +11.19 | 0.997 | $304.79 |
| 2025-10-09 | 63.48% | +4.37 | 1.032 | $320.29 |
| 2025-10-08 | 61.85% | +2.09 | 1.066 | $330.80 |
| 2025-10-07 | 65.51% | +1.77 | 1.025 | $328.40 |
| 2025-10-06 | 61.53% | -1.40 | 1.063 | $359.69 |
| 2025-10-03 | 58.83% | +3.07 | 1.080 | $351.63 |
| 2025-10-02 | 58.63% | +2.11 | 1.070 | $352.33 |
| 2025-10-01 | 57.49% | +4.06 | 1.070 | $338.41 |
| 2025-09-30 | 58.63% | +4.34 | 1.060 | $322.21 |
| 2025-09-29 | 58.27% | +4.51 | 1.060 | $326.42 |
| 2025-09-26 | 60.07% | +7.59 | 1.065 | $309.06 |
| 2025-09-25 | 65.63% | +8.93 | 1.002 | $300.70 |
| 2025-09-24 | 55.41% | +2.37 | 1.105 | $323.31 |
| 2025-09-23 | 51.75% | +1.66 | 1.173 | $327.78 |
| 2025-09-22 | 53.10% | +2.96 | 1.138 | $335.93 |
| 2025-09-19 | 51.81% | -0.05 | 1.129 | $344.75 |
| 2025-09-18 | 50.81% | +1.14 | 1.156 | $349.12 |
| 2025-09-17 | 49.31% | +3.70 | 1.161 | $329.71 |
| 2025-09-16 | 49.44% | +1.74 | 1.147 | $335.09 |
| 2025-09-15 | 50.19% | +3.24 | 1.142 | $327.79 |
| 2025-09-12 | 48.98% | +3.76 | 1.152 | $331.44 |
| 2025-09-11 | 47.98% | +4.22 | 1.153 | $326.02 |
| 2025-09-10 | 51.04% | +4.59 | 1.119 | $326.45 |
| 2025-09-09 | 51.28% | +4.54 | 1.121 | $328.53 |
| 2025-09-08 | 52.88% | +4.60 | 1.106 | $329.90 |
| 2025-09-05 | 59.57% | +3.71 | 1.049 | $335.87 |
| 2025-09-04 | 58.93% | +6.04 | 1.045 | $327.59 |
| 2025-09-03 | 57.68% | +4.16 | 1.053 | $330.26 |
| 2025-09-02 | 55.16% | +4.94 | 1.071 | $341.62 |
| 2025-08-29 | 55.15% | +4.17 | 1.065 | $334.41 |
| 2025-08-28 | 54.60% | +0.70 | 1.071 | $338.84 |
| 2025-08-27 | 55.35% | +2.69 | 1.056 | $342.06 |
| 2025-08-26 | 52.06% | +2.76 | 1.121 | $351.36 |
| 2025-08-25 | 56.68% | +2.11 | 1.032 | $343.20 |
| 2025-08-22 | 51.59% | +3.07 | 1.101 | $358.13 |
| 2025-08-21 | 53.58% | +7.32 | 1.069 | $337.58 |
| 2025-08-20 | 54.30% | +7.36 | 1.058 | $344.37 |
| 2025-08-19 | 59.82% | +9.32 | 0.988 | $336.57 |
| 2025-08-18 | 51.16% | +4.06 | 1.076 | $363.60 |
| 2025-08-15 | 56.60% | +2.53 | 1.036 | $366.32 |
| 2025-08-14 | 53.86% | +4.56 | 1.106 | $372.94 |
| 2025-08-13 | 52.60% | +1.06 | 1.105 | $389.90 |
| 2025-08-12 | 51.27% | +1.67 | 1.116 | $394.39 |
| 2025-08-11 | 52.50% | +2.13 | 1.107 | $400.25 |
| 2025-08-08 | 53.30% | +2.87 | 1.106 | $395.13 |
| 2025-08-07 | 52.56% | +1.92 | 1.112 | $402.01 |
| 2025-08-06 | 51.46% | +1.88 | 1.118 | $383.41 |
| 2025-08-05 | 54.58% | +2.90 | 1.083 | $375.46 |
| 2025-08-04 | 53.93% | +2.65 | 1.094 | $389.24 |
| 2025-08-01 | 61.89% | +8.32 | 0.990 | $366.63 |
| 2025-07-31 | 50.67% | +4.84 | 1.111 | $401.86 |
| 2025-07-30 | 54.07% | -2.32 | 1.035 | $395.04 |
| 2025-07-29 | 52.42% | +2.97 | 1.088 | $394.66 |
| 2025-07-28 | 50.67% | +1.48 | 1.106 | $403.80 |
| 2025-07-25 | 49.95% | +1.47 | 1.096 | $405.89 |
| 2025-07-24 | 47.41% | +1.56 | 1.110 | $414.92 |
| 2025-07-23 | 50.22% | +1.22 | 1.077 | $412.67 |
| 2025-07-22 | 46.66% | +0.95 | 1.146 | $426.40 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 338 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 95.63% | 82.65% | 77.86% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 93.59% | 81.05% | 75.59% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 92.98% | 80.60% | 75.21% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 92.89% | 80.68% | 75.11% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 93.10% | 80.95% | 75.19% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 93.26% | 81.31% | 75.72% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 93.61% | 81.65% | 76.21% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 93.77% | 81.98% | 76.51% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 93.93% | 82.72% | 77.00% |
| ATM | 95.22% | 83.24% | 77.24% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 95.65% | 83.88% | 77.38% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 96.32% | 84.82% | 78.25% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 97.05% | 85.62% | 79.13% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 97.71% | 86.68% | 80.38% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 98.69% | 88.04% | 82.03% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 100.12% | 89.92% | 84.25% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 101.87% | 92.72% | 87.13% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 105.19% | 97.76% | 92.16% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 113.06% | 112.81% | 106.21% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $120.62 | 95.22% | 98.69% | 93.10% | +5.59 | +0.68 | 68 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $120.70 | 83.24% | 88.04% | 80.95% | +7.09 | +1.26 | 66 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $120.75 | 77.24% | 82.03% | 75.19% | +6.85 | +1.37 | 53 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $120.95 | 76.64% | 81.97% | 74.91% | +7.07 | +1.80 | 24 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $121.20 | 76.74% | 82.94% | 74.57% | +8.37 | +2.02 | 26 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $121.08 | 76.33% | 81.14% | 74.55% | +6.59 | +1.52 | 51 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $121.00 | 76.71% | 80.41% | 73.85% | +6.55 | +0.42 | 26 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $121.66 | 73.92% | 78.20% | 72.78% | +5.42 | +1.57 | 61 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $122.72 | 73.20% | 77.74% | 72.38% | +5.36 | +1.86 | 54 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $122.78 | 73.53% | 77.27% | 72.31% | +4.97 | +1.26 | 49 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $124.20 | 73.00% | 76.66% | 72.30% | +4.36 | +1.49 | 76 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $124.97 | 73.39% | 75.98% | 73.06% | +2.92 | +1.13 | 77 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $120.62 | 95.22% | $121.08 | 68 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $120.70 | 83.24% | $121.85 | 66 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $120.75 | 77.24% | $122.44 | 53 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $120.95 | 76.64% | $123.31 | 24 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $121.20 | 76.74% | $124.27 | 26 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $121.08 | 76.33% | $124.81 | 51 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $121.00 | 76.71% | $125.37 | 26 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $121.66 | 73.92% | $127.82 | 61 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $122.72 | 73.20% | $134.90 | 54 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $122.78 | 73.53% | $137.92 | 49 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $124.20 | 73.00% | $145.73 | 76 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $124.97 | 73.39% | $157.21 | 77 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 76.73%
- 60 天
- 74.49%
- 90 天
- 73.53%
- 180 天
- 73.29%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 10 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 10 次中 4 次
- 40% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 11.7%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 28.6%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 收盘后 | 6.0% | -7.8% | 1.31× |
| 2026-10-27 | 未说明时间 | 8.7% | +2.7% | 0.30× |
| 2026-07-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-06 | 开盘前 | 7.8% | +2.3% | 0.29× |
| 2025-07-31 | 收盘后 | 5.1% | -69.5% | 13.57× |
| 2025-07-07 | 开盘前 | 6.5% | -2.1% | 0.31× |
| 2025-05-01 | 收盘后 | 4.5% | -67.9% | 15.22× |
| 2025-04-07 | 开盘前 | 49.8% | -8.7% | 0.17× |
| 2025-02-05 | 收盘后 | 8.6% | -63.6% | 7.41× |
| 2025-01-06 | 开盘前 | 10.8% | +11.6% | 1.08× |
| 2024-10-30 | 收盘后 | 9.5% | -50.4% | 5.31× |
| 2024-08-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。