股票 · 期权分析
MU 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $725.11
- 30D ATM IV
- 70.14%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 96
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +6.85
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.908
▲ +0.86 pts 较前一交易日
概览
MU 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 70.1%,相当于未来一个月约 ±20.1% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 251 个交易日中 96% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 6.85 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 7% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 9%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2026-12-16(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±12.0% 的波动,MU 实际平均波动 207.5%,6 次中有 2 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 70.14%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +6.85
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.07
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.908
对应 30 天内约 ±20.1% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.4%。
高于过去一年中 96% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 6.85 个点。
高于过去一年中 93% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.07 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 9%。
高于过去一年中 27% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 251 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 96%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 68%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 97%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 69%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $725.11
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $718.09
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 66.07%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 63.68%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 60.70%
- 使用的到期日数
- 20
- 总未平仓量
- 2,551,571
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.89
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 348 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 70.14% | +6.85 | 0.908 | $725.11 |
| 2026-11-09 | 69.28% | +8.35 | 0.913 | $733.15 |
| 2026-11-06 | 76.83% | +12.24 | 0.881 | $690.00 |
| 2026-11-05 | 80.19% | +14.02 | 0.835 | $656.39 |
| 2026-11-04 | 59.34% | +6.10 | 0.972 | $795.23 |
| 2026-11-03 | 59.24% | +5.53 | 0.967 | $855.10 |
| 2026-11-02 | 61.01% | +6.54 | 0.941 | $833.59 |
| 2026-10-30 | 55.88% | +4.47 | 0.993 | $884.74 |
| 2026-10-29 | 51.39% | +2.18 | 1.035 | $934.27 |
| 2026-10-28 | 51.72% | +2.02 | 1.036 | $983.23 |
| 2026-10-27 | 50.90% | +1.94 | 1.032 | $928.76 |
| 2026-10-26 | 52.16% | +3.40 | 1.005 | $903.70 |
| 2026-10-23 | 53.45% | +3.98 | 0.983 | $877.55 |
| 2026-10-22 | 55.70% | +4.69 | 0.962 | $856.49 |
| 2026-10-21 | 50.90% | +1.95 | 0.999 | $913.67 |
| 2026-10-20 | 50.80% | +2.29 | 0.991 | $896.07 |
| 2026-10-19 | 49.77% | +2.58 | 1.000 | $904.90 |
| 2026-10-16 | 51.06% | +4.97 | 0.990 | $878.84 |
| 2026-10-15 | 51.41% | +2.31 | 0.984 | $931.24 |
| 2026-10-14 | 50.55% | +2.27 | 0.985 | $914.13 |
| 2026-10-13 | 48.44% | +0.69 | 0.996 | $953.19 |
| 2026-10-09 | 45.46% | -0.56 | 1.049 | $1,029.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | 48.30% | +0.34 | 1.015 | $1,035.84 |
| 2026-10-07 | 47.87% | +0.12 | 1.014 | $1,088.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | 44.39% | -0.88 | 1.058 | $1,045.56 |
| 2026-10-05 | 45.84% | -0.64 | 1.054 | $1,063.96 |
| 2026-10-02 | 49.29% | -1.11 | 1.050 | $1,074.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | 54.47% | -2.61 | 1.009 | $1,097.39 |
| 2026-09-30 | 60.60% | -3.77 | 0.939 | $1,065.11 |
| 2026-09-29 | 61.82% | -3.79 | 0.944 | $1,065.08 |
| 2026-09-28 | 61.03% | -3.87 | 0.959 | $1,053.98 |
| 2026-09-25 | 60.93% | -2.78 | 0.972 | $1,082.28 |
| 2026-09-24 | 62.24% | -2.10 | 0.977 | $1,080.53 |
| 2026-09-23 | 63.77% | -3.06 | 0.959 | $1,071.88 |
| 2026-09-22 | 65.31% | -4.09 | 0.960 | $1,096.16 |
| 2026-09-21 | 62.58% | -3.00 | 0.963 | $1,043.96 |
| 2026-09-18 | 59.52% | -1.83 | 0.986 | $1,015.80 |
| 2026-09-17 | 59.22% | -1.31 | 0.984 | $977.50 |
| 2026-09-16 | 59.44% | -1.20 | 0.967 | $926.55 |
| 2026-09-15 | 58.13% | -1.29 | 0.983 | $927.60 |
| 2026-09-14 | 59.03% | -1.24 | 0.983 | $924.03 |
| 2026-09-11 | 59.86% | -1.84 | 1.004 | $975.26 |
| 2026-09-10 | 65.12% | -2.34 | 0.962 | $977.41 |
| 2026-09-09 | 65.92% | -2.89 | 0.978 | $1,027.77 |
| 2026-09-08 | 67.61% | -2.84 | 0.980 | $1,000.26 |
| 2026-09-04 | 65.17% | -2.76 | 0.998 | $1,016.59 |
| 2026-09-03 | 61.94% | -2.79 | 0.975 | $958.16 |
| 2026-09-02 | 60.42% | -0.57 | 0.991 | $956.08 |
| 2026-09-01 | 60.77% | -0.13 | 1.003 | $933.44 |
| 2026-08-31 | 58.95% | +0.26 | 1.018 | $958.73 |
| 2026-08-28 | 55.65% | -2.02 | 1.104 | $932.86 |
| 2026-08-27 | 59.79% | +0.05 | 1.089 | $935.39 |
| 2026-08-26 | 64.58% | -1.46 | 1.043 | $938.40 |
| 2026-08-25 | 64.33% | -0.54 | 1.050 | $932.97 |
| 2026-08-24 | 65.53% | -1.81 | 1.041 | $910.43 |
| 2026-08-21 | 62.90% | -1.24 | 1.088 | $966.78 |
| 2026-08-20 | 65.79% | -0.72 | 1.070 | $974.33 |
| 2026-08-19 | 64.08% | -0.96 | 1.087 | $937.11 |
| 2026-08-18 | 65.14% | -0.70 | 1.082 | $940.76 |
| 2026-08-17 | 64.91% | -2.33 | 1.091 | $1,011.75 |
| 2025-10-22 | 63.09% | +3.44 | 0.994 | $198.47 |
| 2025-10-21 | 61.00% | +2.06 | 1.004 | $202.29 |
| 2025-10-20 | 64.95% | +0.75 | 0.980 | $206.77 |
| 2025-10-17 | 65.67% | +2.01 | 0.973 | $202.38 |
| 2025-10-16 | 67.97% | +0.64 | 0.960 | $202.53 |
| 2025-10-15 | 63.61% | -0.79 | 0.970 | $191.94 |
| 2025-10-14 | 60.59% | +2.74 | 0.989 | $187.06 |
| 2025-10-10 | 61.91% | +4.88 | 0.981 | $181.60 |
| 2025-10-09 | 60.10% | -1.98 | 0.992 | $192.33 |
| 2025-10-08 | 62.61% | -3.21 | 0.962 | $196.54 |
| 2025-10-07 | 58.01% | -1.72 | 0.992 | $185.69 |
| 2025-10-06 | 60.72% | -2.46 | 0.981 | $190.96 |
| 2025-10-03 | 55.61% | -1.47 | 1.014 | $187.83 |
| 2025-10-02 | 54.60% | -1.66 | 1.023 | $183.75 |
| 2025-10-01 | 52.28% | -3.81 | 1.050 | $182.15 |
| 2025-09-30 | 48.24% | -0.96 | 1.070 | $167.32 |
| 2025-09-29 | 47.23% | -0.99 | 1.062 | $163.90 |
| 2025-09-26 | 45.46% | -0.65 | 1.090 | $157.27 |
| 2025-09-25 | 46.82% | +0.52 | 1.086 | $156.83 |
| 2025-09-24 | 47.40% | -1.54 | 1.074 | $161.71 |
| 2025-09-23 | 63.56% | -2.05 | 0.932 | $166.41 |
| 2025-09-22 | 62.63% | -3.94 | 0.891 | $164.62 |
| 2025-09-19 | 60.27% | -3.26 | 0.913 | $162.73 |
| 2025-09-18 | 61.03% | -5.19 | 0.895 | $168.89 |
| 2025-09-17 | 60.29% | -4.23 | 0.878 | $159.99 |
| 2025-09-16 | 59.39% | -2.76 | 0.897 | $158.82 |
| 2025-09-15 | 62.89% | -6.45 | 0.869 | $157.77 |
| 2025-09-12 | 62.18% | -8.69 | 0.874 | $157.23 |
| 2025-09-11 | 60.81% | -5.37 | 0.858 | $150.57 |
| 2025-09-10 | 55.65% | +0.00 | 0.878 | $140.00 |
| 2025-09-09 | 53.06% | -2.20 | 0.905 | $135.24 |
| 2025-09-08 | 53.71% | +0.07 | 0.888 | $131.46 |
| 2025-09-05 | 54.62% | +5.79 | 0.877 | $131.37 |
| 2025-09-04 | 56.47% | +0.25 | 0.845 | $124.21 |
| 2025-09-03 | 59.19% | +2.27 | 0.807 | $118.72 |
| 2025-09-02 | 52.65% | +6.66 | 0.913 | $118.48 |
| 2025-08-29 | 53.53% | +4.20 | 0.878 | $119.01 |
| 2025-08-28 | 52.97% | +1.04 | 0.877 | $122.00 |
| 2025-08-27 | 50.36% | +3.46 | 0.935 | $117.75 |
| 2025-08-26 | 55.17% | -2.32 | 0.843 | $116.50 |
| 2025-08-25 | 54.72% | -1.08 | 0.845 | $116.42 |
| 2025-08-22 | 44.55% | +1.44 | 1.036 | $117.68 |
| 2025-08-21 | 46.92% | +3.45 | 1.007 | $115.79 |
| 2025-08-20 | 45.31% | +3.73 | 1.042 | $117.21 |
| 2025-08-19 | 43.49% | +2.76 | 1.070 | $122.05 |
| 2025-08-18 | 41.61% | +1.96 | 1.103 | $123.55 |
| 2025-08-15 | 42.07% | +2.23 | 1.099 | $120.87 |
| 2025-08-14 | 42.17% | +1.55 | 1.112 | $125.29 |
| 2025-08-13 | 42.34% | +1.01 | 1.087 | $124.27 |
| 2025-08-12 | 41.08% | +1.90 | 1.112 | $127.75 |
| 2025-08-11 | 44.66% | +2.17 | 1.047 | $123.72 |
| 2025-08-08 | 42.55% | +1.69 | 1.087 | $118.89 |
| 2025-08-07 | 43.14% | +2.58 | 1.074 | $111.87 |
| 2025-08-06 | 39.81% | +3.16 | 1.164 | $108.78 |
| 2025-08-05 | 43.65% | +3.79 | 1.073 | $109.06 |
| 2025-08-04 | 41.91% | +4.87 | 1.094 | $107.77 |
| 2025-08-01 | 46.13% | +1.34 | 1.019 | $104.88 |
| 2025-07-31 | 43.97% | +3.77 | 1.048 | $109.14 |
| 2025-07-30 | 44.02% | +2.20 | 1.027 | $114.74 |
| 2025-07-29 | 40.19% | +1.24 | 1.109 | $111.96 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 348 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-11) · 3d (2026-11-13) · 6d (2026-11-16)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 3d | 6d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 88.51% | 88.40% | 73.13% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 88.63% | 86.89% | 71.75% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 88.88% | 86.78% | 71.53% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 89.39% | 86.65% | 71.74% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 89.89% | 87.22% | 72.16% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 90.17% | 87.87% | 72.72% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 90.64% | 88.34% | 73.19% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 90.99% | 88.90% | 73.72% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 91.46% | 89.56% | 75.00% |
| ATM | 91.83% | 90.24% | 75.48% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 92.38% | 90.76% | 75.59% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 92.56% | 91.57% | 77.10% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 93.40% | 92.52% | 77.68% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 93.68% | 93.78% | 78.61% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 94.68% | 94.85% | 79.65% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 95.73% | 96.34% | 81.60% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 97.78% | 98.66% | 83.09% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 100.38% | 101.86% | 85.54% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 105.45% | 107.64% | 91.14% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 1 | $715.55 | 91.83% | 94.68% | 89.89% | +4.79 | +0.46 | 88 |
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $715.98 | 90.24% | 94.85% | 87.22% | +7.63 | +0.79 | 156 |
| 2026-11-16 | 6 | $716.57 | 75.48% | 79.65% | 72.16% | +7.49 | +0.42 | 102 |
| 2026-11-18 | 8 | $718.20 | 78.39% | 84.32% | 76.17% | +8.14 | +1.86 | 116 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $717.27 | 80.16% | 85.73% | 77.02% | +8.71 | +1.21 | 112 |
| 2026-11-23 | 13 | $716.10 | 78.19% | 78.36% | 74.14% | +4.21 | -1.94 | 99 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $717.65 | 72.41% | 76.29% | 70.78% | +5.51 | +1.13 | 139 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $718.70 | 69.67% | 73.52% | 67.35% | +6.17 | +0.76 | 151 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $717.99 | 70.20% | 73.49% | 66.55% | +6.94 | -0.18 | 149 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $718.90 | 68.47% | 72.54% | 65.90% | +6.63 | +0.75 | 127 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $721.26 | 68.30% | 72.67% | 65.95% | +6.73 | +1.01 | 112 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $721.74 | 65.50% | 68.78% | 63.67% | +5.10 | +0.73 | 201 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $725.27 | 63.13% | 65.74% | 61.35% | +4.39 | +0.41 | 196 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $727.97 | 62.20% | 64.91% | 60.86% | +4.05 | +0.68 | 232 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $729.76 | 61.36% | 63.97% | 60.25% | +3.72 | +0.75 | 121 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $732.66 | 60.42% | 62.45% | 59.78% | +2.67 | +0.69 | 191 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $734.82 | 59.87% | 61.72% | 59.21% | +2.51 | +0.59 | 244 |
| 2027-07-16 | 248 | $736.78 | 59.55% | 61.28% | 59.00% | +2.28 | +0.59 | 154 |
| 2027-08-20 | 283 | $740.54 | 59.41% | 61.32% | 58.63% | +2.69 | +0.57 | 194 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $742.60 | 58.97% | 60.70% | 58.69% | +2.01 | +0.73 | 237 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
20 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 1 天 | $715.55 | 91.83% | $716.38 | 88 |
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $715.98 | 90.24% | $718.38 | 156 |
| 2026-11-16 | 6 天 | $716.57 | 75.48% | $719.94 | 102 |
| 2026-11-18 | 8 天 | $718.20 | 78.39% | $723.05 | 116 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $717.27 | 80.16% | $723.62 | 112 |
| 2026-11-23 | 13 天 | $716.10 | 78.19% | $723.94 | 99 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $717.65 | 72.41% | $726.47 | 139 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $718.70 | 69.67% | $730.26 | 151 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $717.99 | 70.20% | $733.18 | 149 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $718.90 | 68.47% | $736.66 | 127 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $721.26 | 68.30% | $741.82 | 112 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $721.74 | 65.50% | $750.28 | 201 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $725.27 | 63.13% | $766.38 | 196 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $727.97 | 62.20% | $779.49 | 232 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $729.76 | 61.36% | $791.31 | 121 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $732.66 | 60.42% | $806.50 | 191 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $734.82 | 59.87% | $818.23 | 244 |
| 2027-07-16 | 248 天 | $736.78 | 59.55% | $831.11 | 154 |
| 2027-08-20 | 283 天 | $740.54 | 59.41% | $849.13 | 194 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $742.60 | 58.97% | $861.18 | 237 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 70.14%
- 60 天
- 66.07%
- 90 天
- 63.68%
- 180 天
- 60.70%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 2 次
- 33% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 12.0%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 207.5%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 收盘后 | 9.2% | +3.0% | 0.33× |
| 2026-06-24 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-18 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-17 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-23 | 收盘后 | 12.4% | +508.0% | 41.06× |
| 2025-06-25 | 收盘后 | 10.1% | +695.1% | 68.99× |
| 2025-03-20 | 收盘后 | 11.6% | -8.0% | 0.70× |
| 2024-12-18 | 收盘后 | 16.1% | -16.2% | 1.00× |
| 2024-09-25 | 收盘后 | 12.5% | +14.7% | 1.18× |
| 2024-06-26 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-20 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-20 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。