股票 · 期权分析
NBIS 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $134.00
- 30D ATM IV
- 117.95%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 94
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +8.15
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.863
▲ +5.23 pts 较前一交易日
概览
NBIS 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 117.9%,相当于未来一个月约 ±33.8% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 246 个交易日中 94% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 8.15 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 10% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 14%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 117.95%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +8.15
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.74
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.863
对应 30 天内约 ±33.8% 的波动，平常一天约 ±7.4%。
高于过去一年中 94% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 8.15 个点。
高于过去一年中 90% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.74 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 14%。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 246 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 94%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 77%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 94%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 77%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $134.00
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $132.85
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 105.36%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 101.81%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 95.81%
- 使用的到期日数
- 14
- 总未平仓量
- 1,244,012
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.06
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 282 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 117.95% | +8.15 | 0.863 | $134.00 |
| 2026-11-09 | 112.72% | +8.87 | 0.885 | $141.45 |
| 2026-11-06 | 118.05% | +16.02 | 0.856 | $129.49 |
| 2026-11-05 | 126.58% | +19.98 | 0.833 | $120.37 |
| 2026-11-04 | 105.68% | +5.98 | 0.911 | $141.52 |
| 2026-11-03 | 108.16% | +8.16 | 0.886 | $151.64 |
| 2026-11-02 | 110.62% | +7.66 | 0.880 | $141.39 |
| 2026-10-30 | 103.94% | +7.32 | 0.894 | $154.14 |
| 2026-10-29 | 96.77% | +1.89 | 0.907 | $171.99 |
| 2026-10-28 | 95.08% | +1.97 | 0.923 | $182.34 |
| 2026-10-27 | 93.48% | +3.88 | 0.929 | $170.47 |
| 2026-10-26 | 96.93% | -1.42 | 0.910 | $153.27 |
| 2026-10-23 | 99.20% | +3.75 | 0.894 | $158.74 |
| 2026-10-22 | 101.86% | +5.16 | 0.869 | $159.17 |
| 2026-10-21 | 95.00% | +1.54 | 0.889 | $171.57 |
| 2026-10-20 | 93.79% | +4.16 | 0.895 | $171.45 |
| 2026-10-19 | 92.18% | +5.57 | 0.881 | $170.24 |
| 2026-10-16 | 98.44% | +9.28 | 0.871 | $165.47 |
| 2026-10-15 | 89.34% | +4.05 | 0.888 | $188.41 |
| 2026-10-14 | 88.00% | +0.97 | 0.906 | $186.01 |
| 2026-10-13 | 80.19% | -4.57 | 0.955 | $206.86 |
| 2026-10-09 | 71.43% | -3.10 | 1.051 | $221.07 |
| 2026-10-08 | 74.35% | -3.55 | 1.050 | $219.71 |
| 2026-10-07 | 73.16% | -5.59 | 1.062 | $237.15 |
| 2026-10-06 | 75.00% | -4.35 | 1.063 | $249.87 |
| 2026-10-05 | 70.99% | -3.70 | 1.104 | $232.57 |
| 2026-10-02 | 75.14% | -1.36 | 1.100 | $242.81 |
| 2026-10-01 | 76.41% | -4.68 | 1.100 | $232.28 |
| 2026-09-30 | 79.17% | -3.39 | 1.085 | $235.88 |
| 2026-09-29 | 78.86% | -2.83 | 1.081 | $237.36 |
| 2026-09-28 | 78.17% | -4.54 | 1.091 | $231.88 |
| 2026-09-25 | 76.11% | -2.51 | 1.108 | $237.33 |
| 2026-09-24 | 82.04% | -3.37 | 1.073 | $243.48 |
| 2026-09-23 | 81.78% | -7.08 | 1.085 | $226.61 |
| 2026-09-22 | 81.35% | -4.67 | 1.080 | $236.12 |
| 2026-09-21 | 83.91% | -6.42 | 1.051 | $232.80 |
| 2026-09-18 | 78.18% | -3.01 | 1.121 | $223.54 |
| 2026-09-17 | 78.61% | -2.31 | 1.101 | $217.99 |
| 2025-10-22 | 115.77% | -4.15 | 0.859 | $98.62 |
| 2025-10-21 | 106.63% | -6.93 | 0.918 | $104.28 |
| 2025-10-20 | 105.94% | -4.88 | 0.890 | $109.00 |
| 2025-10-17 | 107.07% | -1.48 | 0.885 | $113.44 |
| 2025-10-16 | 109.25% | -4.06 | — | $123.04 |
| 2025-10-15 | 105.39% | -3.10 | — | $125.83 |
| 2025-10-14 | 104.19% | -2.44 | — | $128.15 |
| 2025-10-10 | 106.64% | +3.47 | — | $129.58 |
| 2025-10-09 | 104.44% | -5.53 | — | $132.64 |
| 2025-10-08 | 102.33% | -12.27 | — | $122.00 |
| 2025-10-07 | 104.46% | -5.61 | — | $117.70 |
| 2025-10-06 | 96.37% | -3.66 | — | $124.94 |
| 2025-10-03 | 92.71% | -0.72 | — | $127.98 |
| 2025-10-02 | 88.85% | -2.58 | — | $125.87 |
| 2025-10-01 | 85.01% | -9.69 | — | $115.61 |
| 2025-09-30 | 85.61% | -2.70 | — | $112.27 |
| 2025-09-29 | 81.13% | -7.50 | — | $110.22 |
| 2025-09-26 | 82.32% | -3.88 | — | $107.70 |
| 2025-09-25 | 91.22% | -4.30 | — | $107.94 |
| 2025-09-24 | 84.11% | -6.15 | — | $113.23 |
| 2025-09-23 | 84.34% | -11.18 | — | $107.80 |
| 2025-09-22 | 85.61% | -12.55 | — | $106.60 |
| 2025-09-19 | 79.14% | -8.62 | 1.046 | $99.31 |
| 2025-09-18 | 76.11% | -8.31 | 1.058 | $94.12 |
| 2025-09-17 | 78.45% | -8.14 | 1.037 | $94.08 |
| 2025-09-16 | 74.88% | -8.83 | 1.058 | $89.43 |
| 2025-09-15 | 77.02% | -9.33 | 1.054 | $90.96 |
| 2025-09-12 | 77.87% | -7.75 | 1.018 | $90.41 |
| 2025-09-11 | 75.59% | -10.82 | 1.032 | $89.19 |
| 2025-09-10 | 82.90% | -0.76 | 0.962 | $93.39 |
| 2025-09-09 | — | — | — | $95.72 |
| 2025-09-08 | 68.07% | +0.05 | 1.058 | $64.06 |
| 2025-09-05 | 63.43% | -0.02 | 1.145 | $65.47 |
| 2025-09-04 | 67.70% | +0.08 | 1.086 | $64.91 |
| 2025-09-03 | 64.82% | -2.32 | 1.143 | $65.65 |
| 2025-09-02 | 76.22% | -0.01 | 1.010 | $65.72 |
| 2025-08-29 | 69.39% | +0.89 | 1.135 | $68.32 |
| 2025-08-28 | 68.03% | +1.93 | 1.136 | $72.04 |
| 2025-08-27 | 74.08% | +2.32 | 1.090 | $70.10 |
| 2025-08-26 | 74.39% | +5.96 | 1.090 | $70.48 |
| 2025-08-25 | 76.88% | -1.09 | 1.058 | $70.02 |
| 2025-08-22 | 73.87% | +1.15 | 1.102 | $68.98 |
| 2025-08-21 | 78.19% | +0.42 | 1.057 | $66.18 |
| 2025-08-20 | 77.55% | +0.19 | 1.073 | $67.47 |
| 2025-08-19 | 75.49% | -0.25 | 1.069 | $67.19 |
| 2025-08-18 | 74.35% | -1.00 | 1.065 | $72.54 |
| 2025-08-15 | 75.67% | -3.08 | 1.084 | $71.62 |
| 2025-08-14 | 75.60% | -2.57 | 1.072 | $68.46 |
| 2025-08-13 | 76.14% | -1.53 | 1.060 | $70.63 |
| 2025-08-12 | 81.96% | -8.00 | — | $75.33 |
| 2025-08-11 | 70.98% | -2.96 | 1.085 | $70.24 |
| 2025-08-08 | 73.37% | -2.51 | 1.039 | $68.78 |
| 2025-08-07 | 75.08% | -1.71 | — | $65.31 |
| 2025-08-06 | 82.76% | +2.89 | — | $55.09 |
| 2025-08-05 | 78.34% | -3.16 | — | $55.17 |
| 2025-08-04 | 79.11% | +3.42 | — | $54.17 |
| 2025-08-01 | 84.75% | -1.52 | — | $52.00 |
| 2025-07-31 | 86.71% | -3.62 | — | $54.43 |
| 2025-07-30 | 84.33% | -5.24 | 0.932 | $51.29 |
| 2025-07-29 | 77.18% | -5.40 | 1.004 | $50.40 |
| 2025-07-28 | 81.54% | -3.38 | — | $52.75 |
| 2025-07-25 | 82.10% | -5.83 | 0.953 | $51.37 |
| 2025-07-24 | 85.79% | -4.10 | — | $52.16 |
| 2025-07-23 | 85.35% | -4.75 | — | $51.88 |
| 2025-07-22 | 92.97% | -3.68 | — | $51.01 |
| 2025-07-21 | 86.04% | -10.81 | — | $52.37 |
| 2025-07-18 | 81.88% | -1.61 | — | $52.79 |
| 2025-07-17 | 83.15% | -4.69 | — | $53.69 |
| 2025-07-16 | 85.40% | -4.23 | — | $53.31 |
| 2025-07-15 | 89.19% | -8.29 | — | $53.53 |
| 2025-07-14 | 88.86% | -5.23 | — | $51.95 |
| 2025-07-11 | 79.39% | -3.83 | 1.028 | $44.30 |
| 2025-07-10 | 84.87% | -9.63 | 0.969 | $46.43 |
| 2025-07-09 | 80.16% | -2.36 | 1.036 | $46.05 |
| 2025-07-08 | 86.01% | -2.59 | 0.984 | $47.10 |
| 2025-07-07 | 86.95% | -10.04 | — | $47.84 |
| 2025-07-03 | 83.39% | -1.87 | — | $50.25 |
| 2025-07-02 | 89.80% | -9.14 | — | $49.97 |
| 2025-07-01 | 91.70% | -14.56 | — | $50.31 |
| 2025-06-30 | 84.95% | -0.26 | — | $55.33 |
| 2025-06-27 | 84.94% | -4.01 | — | $51.84 |
| 2025-06-26 | 90.15% | -5.65 | — | $52.60 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 282 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 282 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 237.45% | 161.48% | 134.15% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 233.85% | 157.78% | 131.14% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 234.21% | 156.05% | 129.67% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 234.47% | 155.82% | 129.68% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 235.58% | 156.34% | 130.04% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 236.37% | 156.11% | 130.33% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 237.59% | 156.09% | 130.62% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 238.90% | 156.86% | 131.17% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 239.79% | 157.09% | 131.19% |
| ATM | 240.60% | 158.02% | 131.67% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 241.29% | 158.98% | 132.64% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 242.18% | 159.64% | 133.29% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 243.46% | 160.30% | 133.76% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 244.60% | 161.63% | 134.92% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 246.74% | 163.41% | 136.53% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 246.35% | 164.92% | 137.99% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 248.60% | 167.63% | 140.77% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 251.51% | 171.92% | 146.33% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 257.17% | 181.74% | 160.32% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $132.43 | 240.60% | 246.74% | 235.58% | +11.16 | +0.56 | 95 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $132.55 | 158.02% | 163.41% | 156.34% | +7.06 | +1.85 | 76 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $132.57 | 131.67% | 136.53% | 130.04% | +6.49 | +1.61 | 54 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $132.74 | 123.48% | 128.47% | 120.34% | +8.13 | +0.93 | 33 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $132.87 | 117.22% | 123.14% | 114.99% | +8.15 | +1.85 | 35 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $132.97 | 113.35% | 120.19% | 110.40% | +9.79 | +1.95 | 40 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $132.99 | 110.15% | 117.98% | 107.53% | +10.45 | +2.61 | 29 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $133.24 | 104.12% | 108.78% | 101.35% | +7.44 | +0.94 | 52 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $133.89 | 101.10% | 105.67% | 98.57% | +7.10 | +1.02 | 51 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $134.34 | 98.59% | 104.50% | 96.06% | +8.44 | +1.69 | 52 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $135.18 | 97.10% | 102.09% | 93.12% | +8.97 | +0.50 | 46 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $135.56 | 95.25% | 101.44% | 92.27% | +9.17 | +1.60 | 46 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $136.05 | 94.17% | 100.35% | 91.20% | +9.14 | +1.60 | 52 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $137.18 | 91.72% | 97.77% | 89.44% | +8.33 | +1.89 | 46 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
14 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $132.43 | 240.60% | $135.61 | 95 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $132.55 | 158.02% | $137.16 | 76 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $132.57 | 131.67% | $138.04 | 54 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $132.74 | 123.48% | $139.57 | 33 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $132.87 | 117.22% | $140.85 | 35 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $132.97 | 113.35% | $142.16 | 40 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $132.99 | 110.15% | $143.08 | 29 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $133.24 | 104.12% | $146.96 | 52 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $133.89 | 101.10% | $154.23 | 51 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $134.34 | 98.59% | $159.51 | 52 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $135.18 | 97.10% | $165.57 | 46 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $135.56 | 95.25% | $172.10 | 46 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $136.05 | 94.17% | $177.52 | 52 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $137.18 | 91.72% | $196.31 | 46 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 117.95%
- 60 天
- 105.36%
- 90 天
- 101.81%
- 180 天
- 95.81%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 282 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-11-10 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。