股票 · 期权分析
NET 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $305.80
- 30D ATM IV
- 64.61%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 67
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +8.61
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.014
▲ +0.23 pts 较前一交易日
概览
NET 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 64.6%,相当于未来一个月约 ±18.5% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 67% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 8.61 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 10% 的交易日差距比这更大。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-04(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±12.9% 的波动,NET 实际平均波动 78.5%,6 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 64.61%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +8.61
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.00
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.014
对应 30 天内约 ±18.5% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.1%。
高于过去一年中 67% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 8.61 个点。
高于过去一年中 90% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.00 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 1%。
高于过去一年中 49% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 67%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 48%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 75%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 52%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $305.80
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $306.39
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 62.74%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 65.53%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 65.29%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 167,089
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.88
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 338 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 64.61% | +8.61 | 1.014 | $305.80 |
| 2026-11-09 | 64.38% | +7.05 | 0.995 | $293.75 |
| 2026-11-06 | 67.80% | +4.60 | 0.976 | $268.75 |
| 2026-11-05 | 85.67% | +11.42 | 0.842 | $244.51 |
| 2026-11-04 | 85.72% | +8.31 | 0.830 | $266.58 |
| 2026-11-03 | 88.06% | +1.80 | 0.821 | $273.62 |
| 2026-11-02 | 89.35% | +1.21 | 0.839 | $265.17 |
| 2026-10-30 | 86.80% | +4.66 | 0.825 | $280.70 |
| 2026-10-29 | 77.36% | +1.67 | 0.870 | $310.30 |
| 2026-10-28 | 77.10% | +1.69 | 0.861 | $318.72 |
| 2026-10-27 | 75.90% | +3.97 | 0.868 | $327.80 |
| 2026-10-26 | 78.82% | +5.40 | 0.851 | $331.86 |
| 2026-10-23 | 81.35% | +4.31 | 0.842 | $325.73 |
| 2026-10-22 | 78.52% | +0.80 | 0.841 | $303.61 |
| 2026-10-21 | 75.92% | +2.08 | 0.855 | $307.22 |
| 2026-10-20 | 78.14% | +2.52 | 0.799 | $291.69 |
| 2026-10-19 | 75.37% | +2.65 | 0.838 | $297.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | 78.09% | +3.71 | 0.820 | $296.30 |
| 2026-10-15 | 73.41% | +3.68 | 0.852 | $316.32 |
| 2026-10-14 | 74.26% | +0.85 | 0.837 | $324.33 |
| 2026-10-13 | 70.18% | -1.17 | 0.855 | $347.70 |
| 2026-10-09 | 69.53% | +2.76 | 0.852 | $360.93 |
| 2026-10-08 | 68.93% | -0.52 | 0.863 | $341.89 |
| 2026-10-07 | 68.45% | -3.80 | 0.854 | $342.97 |
| 2026-10-06 | 66.87% | -1.17 | 0.894 | $355.01 |
| 2026-10-05 | 68.44% | +0.66 | 0.895 | $359.49 |
| 2026-10-02 | 60.10% | +0.70 | 1.027 | $349.07 |
| 2026-10-01 | 64.09% | +1.37 | 0.991 | $351.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | 62.24% | +1.89 | 1.016 | $347.28 |
| 2026-09-29 | 62.49% | -0.61 | 1.018 | $352.26 |
| 2026-09-28 | 62.18% | +0.02 | 1.023 | $353.99 |
| 2026-09-25 | 58.14% | -0.82 | 1.096 | $349.02 |
| 2026-09-24 | 60.00% | -2.45 | 1.083 | $358.82 |
| 2026-09-23 | 58.25% | -0.92 | 1.096 | $352.33 |
| 2026-09-22 | 56.80% | -0.33 | 1.121 | $353.00 |
| 2026-09-21 | 58.16% | +1.88 | 1.102 | $351.67 |
| 2026-09-18 | 53.97% | +0.33 | 1.126 | $323.60 |
| 2026-09-17 | 53.96% | +0.29 | 1.147 | $333.94 |
| 2026-09-16 | 57.25% | +0.20 | 1.096 | $324.65 |
| 2026-09-15 | 57.28% | +0.28 | 1.119 | $327.23 |
| 2026-09-14 | 56.94% | -0.48 | 1.114 | $330.36 |
| 2026-09-11 | 53.89% | +0.30 | 1.138 | $306.53 |
| 2026-09-10 | 55.47% | +0.88 | 1.136 | $311.17 |
| 2026-09-09 | 58.43% | +0.02 | 1.105 | $314.18 |
| 2026-09-08 | 55.93% | +1.37 | 1.115 | $284.30 |
| 2026-09-04 | 52.74% | -0.42 | 1.145 | $278.92 |
| 2026-09-03 | 54.14% | +0.95 | 1.120 | $284.51 |
| 2026-09-02 | 54.28% | -0.69 | 1.124 | $272.74 |
| 2026-09-01 | 54.50% | -0.04 | 1.119 | $285.51 |
| 2026-08-31 | 53.72% | +2.34 | 1.131 | $305.11 |
| 2026-08-28 | 52.73% | +0.70 | 1.158 | $299.84 |
| 2026-08-27 | 52.68% | +0.68 | 1.159 | $308.23 |
| 2026-08-26 | 51.94% | +1.40 | 1.159 | $284.89 |
| 2026-08-25 | 52.46% | +1.64 | 1.139 | $277.58 |
| 2026-08-24 | 53.53% | -0.43 | 1.126 | $280.35 |
| 2025-10-22 | 70.50% | +4.36 | 0.802 | $210.73 |
| 2025-10-21 | 69.22% | +5.04 | 0.799 | $212.98 |
| 2025-10-20 | 67.97% | +5.96 | 0.831 | $213.04 |
| 2025-10-17 | 71.44% | +3.63 | 0.794 | $210.01 |
| 2025-10-16 | 75.17% | +2.96 | 0.774 | $211.40 |
| 2025-10-15 | 70.88% | -0.52 | 0.775 | $217.38 |
| 2025-10-14 | 72.84% | +4.99 | 0.779 | $217.55 |
| 2025-10-10 | 71.85% | +3.20 | 0.811 | $213.82 |
| 2025-10-09 | 68.70% | +5.44 | 0.824 | $220.95 |
| 2025-10-08 | 68.90% | +3.26 | 0.816 | $220.00 |
| 2025-10-07 | 68.63% | +4.02 | 0.823 | $217.39 |
| 2025-10-06 | 68.12% | +3.36 | 0.829 | $221.03 |
| 2025-10-03 | 63.78% | +1.75 | 0.882 | $216.67 |
| 2025-10-02 | 60.55% | +0.21 | 0.921 | $224.56 |
| 2025-10-01 | 61.25% | +2.91 | 0.927 | $217.06 |
| 2025-09-30 | 58.59% | +1.29 | 0.953 | $214.59 |
| 2025-09-29 | 56.21% | +2.61 | 0.984 | $218.58 |
| 2025-09-26 | 51.24% | +3.42 | 1.091 | $216.34 |
| 2025-09-25 | 50.45% | +1.88 | 1.104 | $218.20 |
| 2025-09-24 | 48.59% | +3.08 | 1.147 | $217.57 |
| 2025-09-23 | 48.27% | +2.53 | 1.151 | $223.26 |
| 2025-09-22 | 47.63% | +4.24 | 1.166 | $228.28 |
| 2025-09-19 | 46.58% | +2.76 | 1.176 | $225.94 |
| 2025-09-18 | 46.18% | +4.27 | 1.173 | $223.57 |
| 2025-09-17 | 46.85% | +3.49 | 1.144 | $213.88 |
| 2025-09-16 | 45.67% | +3.40 | 1.177 | $219.24 |
| 2025-09-15 | 45.91% | +2.66 | 1.165 | $226.01 |
| 2025-09-12 | 44.34% | +2.22 | 1.234 | $221.32 |
| 2025-09-11 | 43.54% | +3.19 | 1.213 | $224.64 |
| 2025-09-10 | 44.09% | +3.57 | 1.209 | $222.97 |
| 2025-09-09 | 43.89% | +4.83 | 1.201 | $218.56 |
| 2025-09-08 | 43.39% | +1.93 | 1.222 | $217.92 |
| 2025-09-05 | 44.64% | +3.28 | 1.184 | $214.43 |
| 2025-09-04 | 45.06% | +5.00 | 1.189 | $209.98 |
| 2025-09-03 | 46.48% | +3.90 | 1.168 | $205.71 |
| 2025-09-02 | 48.93% | +5.40 | 1.115 | $208.05 |
| 2025-08-29 | 43.21% | +1.69 | 1.249 | $208.71 |
| 2025-08-28 | 43.63% | +1.80 | 1.218 | $213.42 |
| 2025-08-27 | 45.65% | +1.30 | 1.186 | $205.24 |
| 2025-08-26 | 44.81% | +4.63 | 1.211 | $198.55 |
| 2025-08-25 | 45.06% | +3.42 | 1.193 | $195.88 |
| 2025-08-22 | 44.62% | +3.39 | 1.200 | $196.17 |
| 2025-08-21 | 47.32% | +3.53 | 1.147 | $192.77 |
| 2025-08-20 | 46.53% | +3.72 | 1.153 | $193.20 |
| 2025-08-19 | 45.48% | +1.55 | 1.174 | $196.51 |
| 2025-08-18 | 43.95% | +2.79 | 1.178 | $202.37 |
| 2025-08-15 | 43.83% | +4.10 | 1.183 | $200.91 |
| 2025-08-14 | 45.17% | +4.42 | 1.162 | $195.38 |
| 2025-08-13 | 45.30% | +0.39 | 1.142 | $199.34 |
| 2025-08-12 | 45.87% | +0.73 | 1.115 | $202.33 |
| 2025-08-11 | 46.08% | +2.29 | 1.125 | $201.17 |
| 2025-08-08 | 46.23% | +3.71 | 1.125 | $204.60 |
| 2025-08-07 | 46.57% | +3.79 | 1.101 | $210.44 |
| 2025-08-06 | 46.07% | +2.96 | 1.072 | $215.53 |
| 2025-08-05 | 46.49% | +2.31 | 1.082 | $207.81 |
| 2025-08-04 | 45.68% | +2.58 | 1.066 | $208.80 |
| 2025-08-01 | 48.33% | +4.99 | 1.034 | $200.11 |
| 2025-07-31 | 68.05% | +6.80 | 0.832 | $207.68 |
| 2025-07-30 | 67.33% | +6.96 | 0.843 | $200.85 |
| 2025-07-29 | 67.50% | +4.86 | 0.835 | $199.43 |
| 2025-07-28 | 67.00% | +4.34 | 0.820 | $199.41 |
| 2025-07-25 | 66.69% | +4.22 | 0.829 | $198.42 |
| 2025-07-24 | 68.34% | +5.91 | 0.805 | $191.58 |
| 2025-07-23 | 68.56% | +5.11 | 0.804 | $189.15 |
| 2025-07-22 | 66.81% | +5.10 | 0.816 | $190.55 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 338 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | — | 65.72% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 76.91% | 65.56% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 77.05% | 65.92% | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 78.93% | 66.76% | 62.67% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 77.95% | 67.24% | 62.88% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 80.46% | 67.88% | 63.96% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 79.16% | 68.63% | 62.65% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 82.44% | 69.71% | 64.89% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 84.68% | 69.94% | 65.06% |
| ATM | 83.99% | 70.74% | 66.14% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 81.51% | 73.32% | 66.92% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 85.84% | 73.27% | 67.88% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 82.74% | 75.46% | 69.51% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 85.41% | 76.60% | 69.51% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 88.34% | 77.63% | 70.13% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 89.43% | 79.61% | 71.31% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 92.07% | 81.72% | 72.72% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 92.52% | 82.53% | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | — | 87.86% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $304.77 | 83.99% | 88.34% | 77.95% | +10.39 | -0.85 | 28 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $306.10 | 70.74% | 77.63% | 67.24% | +10.40 | +1.69 | 35 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $306.03 | 66.14% | 70.13% | 62.88% | +7.25 | +0.36 | 24 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $305.98 | 65.38% | 69.62% | 60.85% | +8.77 | -0.14 | 23 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $306.46 | 64.51% | 69.94% | 61.36% | +8.59 | +1.14 | 27 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $305.98 | 64.41% | 68.11% | 62.02% | +6.09 | +0.65 | 24 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $306.81 | 63.17% | 67.76% | 59.78% | +7.98 | +0.60 | 27 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $307.76 | 62.63% | 66.36% | 59.39% | +6.97 | +0.25 | 32 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $308.84 | 66.37% | 69.78% | 63.89% | +5.89 | +0.47 | 41 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $309.87 | 65.10% | 68.69% | 62.37% | +6.32 | +0.44 | 44 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $312.53 | 65.32% | 69.26% | 62.69% | +6.58 | +0.65 | 45 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $313.46 | 64.59% | 68.37% | 61.88% | +6.49 | +0.54 | 53 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $304.77 | 83.99% | $305.66 | 28 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $306.10 | 70.74% | $308.21 | 35 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $306.03 | 66.14% | $309.16 | 24 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $305.98 | 65.38% | $310.31 | 23 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $306.46 | 64.51% | $311.93 | 27 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $305.98 | 64.41% | $312.66 | 24 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $306.81 | 63.17% | $314.28 | 27 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $307.76 | 62.63% | $318.87 | 32 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $308.84 | 66.37% | $328.24 | 41 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $309.87 | 65.10% | $333.97 | 44 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $312.53 | 65.32% | $349.65 | 45 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $313.46 | 64.59% | $355.25 | 53 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 64.61%
- 60 天
- 62.74%
- 90 天
- 65.53%
- 180 天
- 65.29%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 1 次
- 17% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 12.9%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 78.5%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | 收盘后 | 15.8% | +9.9% | 0.63× |
| 2026-10-29 | 未说明时间 | 4.2% | -9.5% | 2.29× |
| 2026-08-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-10 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-31 | 收盘后 | 14.1% | +35.0% | 2.48× |
| 2025-05-08 | 收盘后 | 13.6% | +125.5% | 9.20× |
| 2025-02-06 | 收盘后 | 14.4% | +98.1% | 6.82× |
| 2024-11-07 | 收盘后 | 15.5% | +193.1% | 12.42× |
| 2024-08-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-08 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。