股票 · 期权分析
NOW 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $99.61
- 30D ATM IV
- 49.47%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 68
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +3.45
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.063
▲ +1.29 pts 较前一交易日
概览
NOW 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 49.5%,相当于未来一个月约 ±14.2% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 68% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 3.45 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
较长期限的期权波动率更高:90 天波动率比 30 天高 6%。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-20(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 7 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±8.5% 的波动,NOW 实际平均波动 22.2%,7 次中有 2 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 49.47%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +3.45
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.55
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.063
对应 30 天内约 ±14.2% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.1%。
高于过去一年中 68% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 3.45 个点。
高于过去一年中 65% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.55 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 6%。
高于过去一年中 57% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 68%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 49%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 77%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 53%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $99.61
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $99.09
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 48.89%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 52.61%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 53.72%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 990,899
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.94
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 347 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 49.47% | +3.45 | 1.063 | $99.61 |
| 2026-11-09 | 48.19% | +3.25 | 1.067 | $102.76 |
| 2026-11-06 | 49.66% | +4.11 | 1.040 | $101.97 |
| 2026-11-05 | 53.24% | +4.99 | 0.991 | $102.36 |
| 2026-11-04 | 48.49% | +1.52 | 1.035 | $108.81 |
| 2026-11-03 | 49.37% | +2.10 | 1.012 | $109.16 |
| 2026-11-02 | 50.65% | +2.24 | 1.004 | $106.01 |
| 2026-10-30 | 49.87% | +1.92 | 1.012 | $105.12 |
| 2026-10-29 | 50.06% | -1.22 | 1.005 | $109.67 |
| 2026-10-28 | 64.21% | +2.13 | 0.833 | $150.13 |
| 2026-10-27 | 62.13% | +1.17 | 0.865 | $154.78 |
| 2026-10-26 | 62.26% | +1.66 | 0.861 | $158.18 |
| 2026-10-23 | 62.13% | +1.72 | 0.849 | $158.96 |
| 2026-10-22 | 61.73% | +1.02 | 0.850 | $157.00 |
| 2026-10-21 | 62.08% | +1.03 | 0.846 | $153.12 |
| 2026-10-20 | 62.60% | +1.28 | 0.857 | $149.54 |
| 2026-10-19 | 62.14% | +1.76 | 0.856 | $145.36 |
| 2026-10-16 | 65.23% | +1.76 | 0.829 | $141.97 |
| 2026-10-15 | 63.12% | +0.18 | 0.837 | $148.57 |
| 2026-10-14 | 63.18% | -0.21 | 0.849 | $139.98 |
| 2026-10-13 | 61.43% | -0.87 | 0.848 | $138.61 |
| 2026-10-09 | 59.28% | -0.38 | 0.869 | $140.86 |
| 2026-10-08 | 61.22% | +0.66 | 0.847 | $139.75 |
| 2026-10-07 | 59.83% | -1.94 | 0.873 | $137.87 |
| 2026-10-06 | 59.21% | +0.60 | 0.886 | $137.97 |
| 2026-10-05 | 59.07% | +0.27 | 0.896 | $136.08 |
| 2026-10-02 | 58.04% | -1.50 | 0.907 | $134.38 |
| 2026-10-01 | 58.36% | +0.18 | 0.931 | $137.76 |
| 2026-09-30 | 58.74% | +0.36 | 0.913 | $134.01 |
| 2026-09-29 | 58.87% | -0.49 | 0.923 | $129.94 |
| 2026-09-28 | 58.51% | -0.31 | 0.932 | $131.45 |
| 2026-09-25 | 56.19% | -0.99 | 0.980 | $135.62 |
| 2026-09-24 | 56.47% | -1.53 | 0.986 | $137.78 |
| 2026-09-23 | 57.13% | -0.66 | 0.987 | $140.78 |
| 2026-09-22 | 55.92% | -1.12 | 1.008 | $137.00 |
| 2026-09-21 | 56.02% | -2.11 | 1.005 | $137.68 |
| 2026-09-18 | 51.36% | -0.74 | 1.076 | $135.47 |
| 2026-09-17 | 52.33% | -0.16 | 1.069 | $138.47 |
| 2026-09-16 | 53.40% | +0.89 | 1.074 | $139.82 |
| 2026-09-15 | 54.06% | -0.34 | 1.067 | $141.90 |
| 2026-09-14 | 53.15% | -0.05 | 1.068 | $142.35 |
| 2026-09-11 | 51.25% | +0.17 | 1.099 | $132.53 |
| 2026-09-10 | 53.62% | +0.30 | 1.064 | $131.17 |
| 2026-09-09 | 53.35% | -0.43 | 1.074 | $131.11 |
| 2026-09-08 | 53.73% | -0.14 | 1.072 | $134.21 |
| 2026-09-04 | 51.23% | +0.53 | 1.106 | $141.26 |
| 2026-09-03 | 51.74% | -1.32 | 1.096 | $145.59 |
| 2026-09-02 | 50.29% | -0.74 | 1.109 | $136.72 |
| 2026-09-01 | 52.09% | -0.27 | 1.103 | $142.90 |
| 2026-08-31 | 52.79% | -1.43 | 1.085 | $147.99 |
| 2026-08-28 | 52.13% | +1.17 | 1.102 | $144.71 |
| 2026-08-26 | 53.24% | -0.71 | 1.077 | $125.80 |
| 2026-08-25 | 52.71% | +0.54 | 1.076 | $127.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | 53.08% | +0.45 | 1.047 | $128.05 |
| 2026-08-21 | 51.97% | +1.02 | 1.082 | $128.48 |
| 2026-08-20 | 52.53% | -0.35 | 1.074 | $129.75 |
| 2026-08-19 | 53.35% | -0.67 | 1.044 | $127.20 |
| 2026-08-18 | 51.76% | -1.00 | 1.075 | $119.49 |
| 2026-08-17 | 52.56% | -1.65 | 1.059 | $117.70 |
| 2025-10-22 | 50.18% | +2.24 | 0.790 | $935.65 |
| 2025-10-21 | 49.53% | +2.67 | 0.799 | $941.50 |
| 2025-10-20 | 49.75% | +4.25 | 0.791 | $917.55 |
| 2025-10-17 | 50.34% | +3.32 | 0.793 | $903.60 |
| 2025-10-16 | 52.70% | +3.74 | 0.786 | $894.49 |
| 2025-10-15 | 49.39% | +2.94 | 0.812 | $903.05 |
| 2025-10-14 | 49.33% | +4.09 | 0.807 | $911.26 |
| 2025-10-10 | 51.06% | +1.05 | 0.802 | $888.71 |
| 2025-10-09 | 49.48% | +2.12 | 0.801 | $917.95 |
| 2025-10-08 | 50.10% | +2.61 | 0.785 | $914.32 |
| 2025-10-07 | 50.31% | +1.26 | 0.803 | $904.24 |
| 2025-10-06 | 49.80% | +2.62 | 0.800 | $912.84 |
| 2025-10-03 | 48.63% | +3.09 | 0.814 | $912.36 |
| 2025-10-02 | 50.17% | +2.57 | 0.790 | $910.10 |
| 2025-10-01 | 48.03% | +2.61 | 0.814 | $912.43 |
| 2025-09-30 | 45.98% | +2.40 | 0.826 | $920.28 |
| 2025-09-29 | 45.36% | +2.59 | 0.816 | $940.85 |
| 2025-09-26 | 44.31% | +1.73 | 0.842 | $936.00 |
| 2025-09-25 | 44.79% | +2.55 | 0.847 | $918.61 |
| 2025-09-24 | 43.62% | +1.30 | 0.858 | $933.37 |
| 2025-09-23 | 42.99% | +1.56 | 0.869 | $927.67 |
| 2025-09-22 | 40.89% | +1.72 | 0.876 | $947.78 |
| 2025-09-19 | 34.69% | +3.35 | 1.046 | $961.15 |
| 2025-09-18 | 34.50% | +1.50 | 1.052 | $947.74 |
| 2025-09-17 | 33.04% | +1.79 | 1.089 | $950.37 |
| 2025-09-16 | 32.97% | +2.59 | 1.114 | $932.01 |
| 2025-09-15 | 33.57% | +1.55 | 1.110 | $947.42 |
| 2025-09-12 | 32.51% | +2.56 | 1.132 | $928.96 |
| 2025-09-11 | 32.56% | +3.10 | 1.112 | $938.28 |
| 2025-09-10 | 32.40% | +2.45 | 1.120 | $923.57 |
| 2025-09-09 | 31.33% | +1.86 | 1.145 | $933.67 |
| 2025-09-08 | 30.83% | +2.15 | 1.143 | $939.33 |
| 2025-09-05 | 30.68% | +1.32 | 1.158 | $913.80 |
| 2025-09-04 | 31.53% | +2.09 | 1.136 | $898.56 |
| 2025-09-03 | 32.74% | +2.19 | 1.115 | $919.38 |
| 2025-09-02 | 32.16% | +2.89 | 1.128 | $911.42 |
| 2025-08-29 | 32.03% | -0.10 | 1.109 | $917.46 |
| 2025-08-28 | 30.78% | +0.01 | 1.136 | $928.60 |
| 2025-08-27 | 31.36% | +1.51 | 1.121 | $887.98 |
| 2025-08-26 | 31.20% | +1.91 | 1.145 | $864.66 |
| 2025-08-25 | 30.99% | +2.87 | 1.149 | $879.94 |
| 2025-08-22 | 30.50% | +2.11 | 1.155 | $886.75 |
| 2025-08-21 | 33.34% | +4.17 | 1.073 | $876.97 |
| 2025-08-20 | 32.86% | +2.74 | 1.089 | $890.25 |
| 2025-08-19 | 32.41% | +2.79 | 1.087 | $886.78 |
| 2025-08-18 | 32.08% | +3.06 | 1.088 | $892.05 |
| 2025-08-15 | 31.49% | +1.86 | 1.088 | $867.24 |
| 2025-08-14 | 32.44% | +1.91 | 1.072 | $850.86 |
| 2025-08-13 | 31.73% | +2.66 | 1.086 | $863.30 |
| 2025-08-12 | 32.13% | +3.21 | 1.072 | $853.43 |
| 2025-08-11 | 34.61% | +1.96 | 1.033 | $856.37 |
| 2025-08-08 | 31.05% | +0.66 | 1.097 | $872.51 |
| 2025-08-07 | 33.99% | +3.52 | 1.020 | $874.12 |
| 2025-08-06 | 29.54% | +2.67 | 1.080 | $912.31 |
| 2025-08-05 | 30.31% | +3.39 | 1.067 | $905.12 |
| 2025-08-04 | 29.57% | +2.48 | 1.078 | $923.00 |
| 2025-08-01 | 30.78% | +2.42 | 1.062 | $914.37 |
| 2025-07-31 | 30.68% | +1.91 | 1.020 | $943.12 |
| 2025-07-30 | 28.58% | +1.79 | 1.066 | $977.48 |
| 2025-07-29 | 28.93% | +1.94 | 1.050 | $993.20 |
| 2025-07-28 | 28.68% | +1.65 | 1.056 | $985.75 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 347 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 347 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 59.17% | 54.19% | 49.76% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 58.05% | 52.11% | 48.26% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 57.50% | 51.87% | 47.60% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 56.92% | 51.63% | 47.38% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 56.72% | 51.47% | 47.31% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 56.85% | 51.42% | 47.45% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 57.17% | 51.45% | 47.64% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 57.18% | 51.62% | 47.78% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 57.23% | 51.94% | 48.22% |
| ATM | 57.38% | 52.08% | 48.21% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 57.64% | 52.93% | 49.07% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 57.88% | 52.73% | 49.34% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 58.16% | 53.04% | 49.62% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 58.74% | 53.49% | 50.09% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 59.45% | 53.91% | 50.56% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 59.96% | 54.63% | 51.31% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 60.82% | 55.54% | 52.43% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 63.17% | 57.41% | 53.88% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 67.73% | 62.08% | 57.49% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $98.77 | 57.38% | 59.45% | 56.72% | +2.73 | +0.71 | 35 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $98.85 | 52.08% | 53.91% | 51.47% | +2.44 | +0.61 | 56 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $98.95 | 48.21% | 50.56% | 47.31% | +3.26 | +0.73 | 69 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $99.03 | 49.06% | 51.47% | 48.04% | +3.43 | +0.69 | 73 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $99.10 | 49.53% | 51.78% | 48.33% | +3.46 | +0.53 | 76 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $99.27 | 49.60% | 51.95% | 48.10% | +3.85 | +0.42 | 82 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $99.25 | 48.89% | 51.39% | 47.73% | +3.66 | +0.67 | 43 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $99.55 | 48.89% | 51.27% | 47.66% | +3.60 | +0.58 | 90 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $100.00 | 53.68% | 56.42% | 52.22% | +4.20 | +0.64 | 23 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $100.23 | 53.59% | 55.41% | 51.72% | +3.68 | -0.02 | 28 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $100.97 | 53.74% | 55.96% | 52.31% | +3.65 | +0.40 | 30 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $101.46 | 53.10% | 55.44% | 51.69% | +3.75 | +0.46 | 84 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $102.52 | 53.50% | 55.45% | 51.98% | +3.47 | +0.22 | 32 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $98.77 | 57.38% | $98.91 | 35 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $98.85 | 52.08% | $99.22 | 56 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $98.95 | 48.21% | $99.49 | 69 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $99.03 | 49.06% | $99.81 | 73 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $99.10 | 49.53% | $100.14 | 76 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $99.27 | 49.60% | $100.55 | 82 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $99.25 | 48.89% | $100.69 | 43 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $99.55 | 48.89% | $101.72 | 90 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $100.00 | 53.68% | $104.07 | 23 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $100.23 | 53.59% | $105.45 | 28 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $100.97 | 53.74% | $108.94 | 30 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $101.46 | 53.10% | $110.42 | 84 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $102.52 | 53.50% | $115.81 | 32 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 49.47%
- 60 天
- 48.89%
- 90 天
- 52.61%
- 180 天
- 53.72%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 347 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 7 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 7 次中 2 次
- 29% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 8.5%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 22.2%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 未说明时间 | 4.7% | -5.9% | 1.26× |
| 2026-10-28 | 收盘后 | 13.2% | -26.9% | 2.04× |
| 2026-10-21 | 未说明时间 | 4.7% | +2.5% | 0.54× |
| 2026-07-22 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-22 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-23 | 收盘后 | 9.5% | -87.7% | 9.22× |
| 2025-04-23 | 收盘后 | 10.6% | +15.5% | 1.46× |
| 2025-01-29 | 收盘后 | 8.9% | -11.4% | 1.29× |
| 2024-10-23 | 收盘后 | 8.0% | +5.4% | 0.68× |
| 2024-07-24 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-24 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-24 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。