股票 · 期权分析
NU 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $12.08
- 30D ATM IV
- 50.96%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 86
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +2.55
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.919
▲ +0.28 pts 较前一交易日
概览
NU 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 51.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±14.6% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 245 个交易日中 86% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 2.55 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 8%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 50.96%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +2.55
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.55
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.919
对应 30 天内约 ±14.6% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.2%。
高于过去一年中 86% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 2.55 个点。
高于过去一年中 64% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.55 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 8%。
高于过去一年中 31% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 245 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 86%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 45%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 86%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 45%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $12.08
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $12.06
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 47.42%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 46.80%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 46.47%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 1,651,951
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.83
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 301 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 50.96% | +2.55 | 0.919 | $12.08 |
| 2026-11-09 | 50.67% | +3.30 | 0.902 | $12.36 |
| 2026-11-06 | 50.50% | +1.38 | 0.905 | $12.03 |
| 2026-11-05 | 51.10% | +0.83 | 0.908 | $11.74 |
| 2026-11-04 | 48.33% | +1.44 | 0.925 | $11.99 |
| 2026-11-03 | 50.48% | -2.88 | 0.896 | $11.61 |
| 2026-11-02 | 49.62% | +1.22 | 0.907 | $11.62 |
| 2026-10-30 | 47.11% | +0.34 | 0.946 | $11.61 |
| 2026-10-29 | 45.52% | +0.58 | 0.957 | $12.05 |
| 2026-10-28 | 46.17% | -0.36 | 0.949 | $11.97 |
| 2026-10-27 | 49.29% | +0.37 | 0.896 | $12.40 |
| 2026-10-26 | 52.46% | +2.16 | 0.870 | $12.59 |
| 2026-10-23 | 65.84% | +11.91 | 0.746 | $15.16 |
| 2026-10-22 | 68.32% | +7.98 | 0.738 | $14.73 |
| 2026-10-21 | 66.38% | +8.20 | 0.750 | $15.05 |
| 2026-10-20 | 61.99% | +9.40 | 0.781 | $15.09 |
| 2026-10-19 | 62.54% | +8.21 | 0.787 | $14.51 |
| 2026-10-16 | 63.28% | +9.72 | 0.782 | $14.56 |
| 2026-10-15 | 60.01% | +6.54 | 0.780 | $14.73 |
| 2026-10-14 | 57.66% | +5.32 | 0.799 | $14.93 |
| 2026-10-13 | 53.24% | +2.98 | 0.848 | $15.58 |
| 2026-10-09 | 49.59% | +1.68 | 0.904 | $16.12 |
| 2026-10-08 | 47.86% | +3.90 | 0.912 | $15.38 |
| 2026-10-07 | 46.13% | +2.46 | 0.935 | $15.58 |
| 2026-10-06 | 47.99% | +1.07 | 0.918 | $15.66 |
| 2026-10-05 | 49.86% | +2.11 | 0.901 | $15.18 |
| 2026-10-02 | 58.76% | +1.57 | 0.845 | $13.43 |
| 2026-10-01 | 57.61% | -1.01 | 0.846 | $13.29 |
| 2026-09-30 | 55.37% | +1.07 | 0.879 | $12.66 |
| 2026-09-29 | 54.18% | +0.30 | 0.900 | $12.35 |
| 2026-09-28 | 49.90% | +0.48 | 0.937 | $12.23 |
| 2026-09-25 | 45.70% | +0.65 | 1.016 | $13.59 |
| 2026-09-24 | 44.69% | +1.63 | 1.051 | $13.56 |
| 2026-09-23 | 44.63% | -1.60 | 1.068 | $13.62 |
| 2026-09-22 | 44.20% | +0.84 | 1.059 | $14.16 |
| 2026-09-21 | 43.25% | +2.47 | 1.055 | $14.06 |
| 2026-09-18 | 43.24% | +2.18 | 1.062 | $13.65 |
| 2025-10-22 | 47.59% | +3.78 | 0.858 | $15.16 |
| 2025-10-21 | 48.11% | +2.22 | 0.856 | $15.24 |
| 2025-10-20 | 46.13% | +4.21 | 0.881 | $15.41 |
| 2025-10-17 | 48.46% | +2.90 | 0.857 | $15.00 |
| 2025-10-16 | 50.06% | +3.43 | 0.842 | $14.73 |
| 2025-10-15 | 46.96% | +0.12 | 0.865 | $15.18 |
| 2025-10-14 | — | — | — | $14.91 |
| 2025-10-10 | 40.34% | +2.77 | 1.057 | $14.92 |
| 2025-10-09 | 38.74% | +1.20 | 1.074 | $15.37 |
| 2025-10-08 | 36.95% | +1.09 | 1.120 | $15.46 |
| 2025-10-07 | 37.06% | +2.35 | 1.120 | $15.13 |
| 2025-10-06 | 37.56% | +1.08 | 1.117 | $15.38 |
| 2025-10-03 | 35.77% | +1.76 | 1.152 | $15.31 |
| 2025-10-02 | 35.76% | +0.41 | 1.160 | $15.22 |
| 2025-10-01 | 36.54% | +2.36 | 1.101 | $15.19 |
| 2025-09-30 | 35.08% | +1.93 | 1.139 | $16.01 |
| 2025-09-29 | 33.10% | +1.37 | 1.195 | $15.95 |
| 2025-09-26 | 34.28% | +2.03 | 1.153 | $15.78 |
| 2025-09-25 | 35.05% | +2.23 | 1.170 | $15.78 |
| 2025-09-24 | 35.23% | +2.08 | 1.164 | $16.01 |
| 2025-09-23 | 32.99% | +2.54 | 1.204 | $16.15 |
| 2025-09-22 | 32.36% | +2.98 | 1.193 | $16.30 |
| 2025-09-19 | 33.63% | +1.56 | 1.146 | $16.17 |
| 2025-09-18 | 32.78% | +2.43 | 1.160 | $15.99 |
| 2025-09-17 | 32.90% | +2.45 | 1.174 | $15.96 |
| 2025-09-16 | 34.05% | +2.11 | 1.143 | $15.89 |
| 2025-09-15 | 34.25% | +1.94 | 1.132 | $15.91 |
| 2025-09-12 | 33.25% | +1.13 | 1.155 | $15.69 |
| 2025-09-11 | 33.43% | +2.12 | 1.162 | $15.62 |
| 2025-09-10 | 33.53% | +1.85 | 1.153 | $15.51 |
| 2025-09-09 | 39.40% | -5.45 | 0.973 | $15.46 |
| 2025-09-08 | 33.02% | +4.94 | 1.168 | $15.22 |
| 2025-09-05 | 33.13% | +1.44 | 1.167 | $14.74 |
| 2025-09-04 | 32.85% | +0.90 | 1.177 | $14.87 |
| 2025-09-03 | 33.50% | +3.59 | 1.154 | $14.90 |
| 2025-09-02 | 34.56% | +3.33 | 1.133 | $14.86 |
| 2025-08-29 | 33.02% | +3.71 | 1.164 | $14.80 |
| 2025-08-28 | 32.03% | +1.88 | 1.201 | $14.77 |
| 2025-08-27 | 32.91% | +1.69 | 1.166 | $14.64 |
| 2025-08-26 | 34.53% | -1.44 | 1.079 | $14.24 |
| 2025-08-25 | 33.57% | +2.17 | 1.136 | $14.23 |
| 2025-08-22 | 32.44% | +2.68 | 1.168 | $13.94 |
| 2025-08-21 | 36.15% | +2.45 | 1.111 | $13.67 |
| 2025-08-20 | 36.81% | +3.42 | 1.086 | $13.62 |
| 2025-08-19 | 35.84% | +0.85 | 1.106 | $13.12 |
| 2025-08-18 | 34.17% | +0.94 | 1.136 | $13.33 |
| 2025-08-15 | 37.19% | +1.77 | 1.074 | $13.10 |
| 2025-08-14 | 50.11% | +0.09 | 0.900 | $12.01 |
| 2025-08-13 | 48.36% | +1.74 | 0.896 | $12.37 |
| 2025-08-12 | 47.42% | +2.28 | 0.910 | $12.24 |
| 2025-08-11 | 49.64% | +1.87 | 0.886 | $11.92 |
| 2025-08-08 | 47.53% | +2.18 | 0.851 | $12.30 |
| 2025-08-07 | 48.84% | +1.83 | 0.895 | $12.41 |
| 2025-08-06 | 48.11% | +2.10 | 0.895 | $12.22 |
| 2025-08-05 | 49.34% | +0.19 | 0.885 | $12.15 |
| 2025-08-04 | 48.18% | +1.89 | 0.897 | $12.03 |
| 2025-08-01 | 48.29% | +2.71 | 0.901 | $12.05 |
| 2025-07-31 | 48.01% | +2.56 | 0.885 | $12.22 |
| 2025-07-30 | 51.60% | +1.15 | 0.798 | $12.62 |
| 2025-07-29 | 46.97% | +2.34 | 0.871 | $12.63 |
| 2025-07-28 | 46.85% | +2.57 | 0.873 | $12.61 |
| 2025-07-25 | 47.16% | +1.32 | 0.869 | $12.73 |
| 2025-07-24 | 47.88% | +2.34 | 0.866 | $12.75 |
| 2025-07-23 | 48.30% | +1.55 | 0.858 | $12.96 |
| 2025-07-22 | 51.67% | -2.25 | 0.798 | $12.79 |
| 2025-07-21 | 49.41% | +0.88 | 0.828 | $12.89 |
| 2025-07-18 | 49.49% | +1.49 | 0.833 | $13.02 |
| 2025-07-17 | 47.53% | +1.70 | 0.843 | $13.99 |
| 2025-07-16 | 48.67% | +3.35 | 0.840 | $13.85 |
| 2025-07-15 | 47.88% | +1.93 | 0.866 | $13.54 |
| 2025-07-14 | 47.76% | +1.90 | 0.875 | $13.07 |
| 2025-07-11 | 42.20% | +1.56 | 0.996 | $12.83 |
| 2025-07-10 | 38.75% | +1.62 | 1.100 | $13.03 |
| 2025-07-09 | 43.29% | +2.51 | 0.952 | $13.64 |
| 2025-07-08 | 43.02% | +2.51 | 0.965 | $13.59 |
| 2025-07-07 | 38.40% | +2.25 | 1.097 | $13.36 |
| 2025-07-03 | 37.23% | +1.72 | 1.161 | $13.60 |
| 2025-07-02 | 40.22% | +0.23 | 1.053 | $13.49 |
| 2025-07-01 | 37.77% | +2.74 | 1.127 | $13.64 |
| 2025-06-30 | 41.24% | +2.49 | 1.051 | $13.72 |
| 2025-06-27 | 37.91% | +1.30 | 1.076 | $13.25 |
| 2025-06-26 | 34.76% | +2.81 | 1.180 | $13.39 |
| 2025-06-25 | 38.08% | +0.31 | 1.080 | $13.23 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 301 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 301 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 103.15% | 64.92% | 53.97% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 96.95% | 62.59% | 54.14% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 95.72% | 62.36% | 54.42% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 95.33% | 62.83% | 54.47% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 95.29% | 63.38% | 54.43% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 95.27% | 63.74% | 54.39% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 95.26% | 64.04% | 54.35% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 95.43% | 64.17% | 54.33% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 95.74% | 64.21% | 54.55% |
| ATM | 96.01% | 64.24% | 54.87% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 96.06% | 64.30% | 54.91% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 96.04% | 64.48% | 54.30% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 95.99% | 64.69% | 53.62% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 95.93% | 64.76% | 53.53% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 95.78% | 64.74% | 53.78% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 95.42% | 64.70% | 54.18% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 94.84% | 64.83% | 54.80% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 93.97% | 65.63% | 55.83% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 92.18% | 70.34% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $12.04 | 96.01% | 95.78% | 95.29% | +0.49 | -0.47 | 9 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $12.05 | 64.24% | 64.74% | 63.38% | +1.36 | -0.18 | 10 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $12.04 | 54.87% | 53.78% | 54.43% | -0.64 | -0.77 | 11 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $12.05 | 52.21% | 52.35% | 50.62% | +1.73 | -0.72 | 10 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $12.06 | 50.79% | 51.59% | 48.94% | +2.65 | -0.53 | 12 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $12.08 | 50.48% | 51.10% | 49.84% | +1.26 | -0.00 | 12 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $12.08 | 49.89% | 50.62% | 49.21% | +1.41 | +0.03 | 7 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $12.13 | 46.79% | 48.09% | 46.21% | +1.88 | +0.36 | 15 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $12.22 | 46.82% | 47.87% | 45.36% | +2.51 | -0.21 | 19 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $12.26 | 45.97% | 47.12% | 44.76% | +2.36 | -0.03 | 20 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $12.33 | 47.07% | 47.74% | 45.15% | +2.59 | -0.62 | 14 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $12.51 | 45.87% | 47.44% | 44.70% | +2.74 | +0.20 | 12 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $12.04 | 96.01% | $12.08 | 9 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $12.05 | 64.24% | $12.12 | 10 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $12.04 | 54.87% | $12.12 | 11 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $12.05 | 52.21% | $12.15 | 10 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $12.06 | 50.79% | $12.19 | 12 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $12.08 | 50.48% | $12.24 | 12 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $12.08 | 49.89% | $12.26 | 7 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $12.13 | 46.79% | $12.37 | 15 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $12.22 | 46.82% | $12.71 | 19 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $12.26 | 45.97% | $12.84 | 20 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $12.33 | 47.07% | $13.18 | 14 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $12.51 | 45.87% | $13.68 | 12 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 50.96%
- 60 天
- 47.42%
- 90 天
- 46.80%
- 180 天
- 46.47%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 301 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。