股票 · 期权分析
NUE 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $256.47
- 30D ATM IV
- —
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- —
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- —
- 期限斜率 90/30
- —
本交易日无法计算任何指标
概览
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-25(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±7.5% 的波动,NUE 实际平均波动 68.3%,5 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- —
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- —
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- —
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- —
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 224 个交易日(一年窗口)
这个窗口内的历史不足,无法定位当前读数。
- IV 百分位,1 年
- —
- IV 排名,1 年
- —
- IV 百分位,2 年
- —
- IV 排名,2 年
- —
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $256.47
- 30 天隐含远期价
- —
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 38.51%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 39.49%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 39.92%
- 使用的到期日数
- 6
- 总未平仓量
- 34,763
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.39
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 338 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | — | — | — | $256.47 |
| 2026-11-09 | 38.76% | +5.05 | 1.007 | $249.24 |
| 2026-11-06 | 40.88% | +1.19 | 0.970 | $244.97 |
| 2026-11-05 | 41.89% | +1.03 | 0.962 | $245.68 |
| 2026-11-04 | 38.05% | +1.56 | 1.015 | $267.91 |
| 2026-11-03 | 38.18% | +1.87 | 0.987 | $273.53 |
| 2026-11-02 | 38.95% | +0.42 | 0.956 | $277.65 |
| 2026-10-30 | 36.13% | +1.08 | 0.996 | $273.87 |
| 2026-10-29 | 35.83% | +0.80 | 1.002 | $275.29 |
| 2026-10-28 | 37.20% | +0.79 | 0.963 | $271.79 |
| 2026-10-27 | 37.52% | +1.06 | 0.960 | $270.79 |
| 2026-10-26 | 42.92% | +0.32 | 0.888 | $257.35 |
| 2026-10-23 | 41.57% | +0.27 | 0.908 | $258.11 |
| 2026-10-22 | 42.33% | +1.78 | 0.894 | $258.06 |
| 2026-10-21 | 40.41% | +1.29 | 0.916 | $264.54 |
| 2026-10-20 | — | — | — | $261.50 |
| 2026-10-19 | — | — | — | $260.73 |
| 2026-10-16 | — | — | — | $256.29 |
| 2026-10-15 | — | — | — | $254.69 |
| 2026-10-14 | — | — | — | $257.11 |
| 2026-10-13 | — | — | — | $253.80 |
| 2026-10-09 | — | — | — | $250.33 |
| 2026-10-08 | — | — | — | $246.14 |
| 2026-10-07 | — | — | — | $246.44 |
| 2026-10-06 | — | — | — | $251.07 |
| 2026-10-05 | 39.29% | +0.28 | 0.953 | $251.41 |
| 2026-10-02 | — | — | — | $240.39 |
| 2026-10-01 | — | — | — | $235.98 |
| 2026-09-30 | — | — | — | $233.75 |
| 2026-09-29 | 37.59% | +0.75 | 0.994 | $236.24 |
| 2026-09-28 | 36.65% | +1.82 | 1.027 | $244.49 |
| 2026-09-25 | 36.07% | +1.79 | 1.015 | $247.25 |
| 2026-09-24 | 36.50% | +1.81 | 1.022 | $247.96 |
| 2026-09-23 | 37.06% | +1.79 | 0.996 | $246.98 |
| 2026-09-22 | 36.54% | +0.99 | 1.024 | $245.66 |
| 2026-09-21 | 36.13% | +1.95 | 1.018 | $242.40 |
| 2026-09-18 | 34.98% | +0.62 | 1.045 | $248.38 |
| 2026-09-17 | 35.65% | +1.15 | 1.030 | $265.14 |
| 2026-09-16 | 38.11% | -0.86 | 1.009 | $260.68 |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — | — | $258.82 |
| 2026-09-14 | — | — | — | $254.63 |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — | — | $259.43 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | — | $255.46 |
| 2026-09-09 | — | — | — | $257.91 |
| 2026-09-08 | — | — | — | $256.40 |
| 2026-09-04 | — | — | — | $261.07 |
| 2026-09-03 | — | — | — | $262.47 |
| 2026-09-02 | 35.03% | +2.54 | 1.039 | $263.97 |
| 2026-09-01 | — | — | — | $251.92 |
| 2026-08-31 | — | — | — | $249.64 |
| 2026-08-28 | 35.18% | +0.74 | 1.039 | $250.50 |
| 2026-08-27 | — | — | — | $252.37 |
| 2026-08-26 | 36.35% | +0.47 | 1.020 | $252.80 |
| 2026-08-25 | 37.31% | +1.22 | 1.011 | $247.55 |
| 2026-08-24 | — | — | — | $244.64 |
| 2025-10-22 | 44.44% | +6.47 | 0.856 | $136.65 |
| 2025-10-21 | 42.99% | +1.20 | 0.900 | $140.52 |
| 2025-10-20 | 37.70% | +4.46 | 0.942 | $136.61 |
| 2025-10-17 | 41.13% | +1.50 | 0.901 | $131.78 |
| 2025-10-16 | — | — | — | $132.66 |
| 2025-10-15 | 40.87% | +7.40 | 0.960 | $136.76 |
| 2025-10-14 | — | — | — | $138.51 |
| 2025-10-10 | 38.87% | +7.01 | 0.976 | $133.65 |
| 2025-10-09 | 39.36% | +3.15 | 0.922 | $138.17 |
| 2025-10-08 | 38.54% | +2.71 | 0.923 | $137.84 |
| 2025-10-07 | 36.81% | +2.53 | 0.931 | $135.80 |
| 2025-10-06 | 39.22% | +1.57 | 0.895 | $135.59 |
| 2025-10-03 | 38.16% | +1.91 | 0.914 | $138.04 |
| 2025-10-02 | 37.34% | +2.30 | 0.926 | $139.02 |
| 2025-10-01 | 37.72% | +2.42 | 0.929 | $135.39 |
| 2025-09-30 | 38.33% | +2.37 | 0.919 | $135.43 |
| 2025-09-29 | 39.07% | +3.57 | 0.899 | $136.08 |
| 2025-09-26 | 33.94% | +2.44 | 1.012 | $138.13 |
| 2025-09-25 | 34.23% | +4.71 | 1.001 | $134.76 |
| 2025-09-24 | 33.62% | +7.95 | 1.029 | $136.40 |
| 2025-09-23 | 33.73% | +2.43 | 1.028 | $135.26 |
| 2025-09-22 | 34.88% | +2.66 | 0.987 | $134.68 |
| 2025-09-19 | 30.98% | +2.62 | 1.094 | $133.30 |
| 2025-09-18 | 31.94% | +2.58 | 1.043 | $134.30 |
| 2025-09-17 | 32.07% | +2.04 | 1.049 | $142.80 |
| 2025-09-16 | 33.24% | +1.68 | 1.014 | $142.93 |
| 2025-09-15 | 33.53% | +2.05 | 1.005 | $141.57 |
| 2025-09-12 | 32.32% | +2.00 | 1.039 | $141.35 |
| 2025-09-11 | 32.82% | +2.19 | 1.021 | $143.75 |
| 2025-09-10 | 33.45% | +2.59 | 1.012 | $141.88 |
| 2025-09-09 | 33.60% | +2.89 | 0.954 | $141.02 |
| 2025-09-08 | 33.85% | +2.24 | 0.980 | $144.02 |
| 2025-09-05 | 35.50% | +0.27 | 0.920 | $147.26 |
| 2025-09-04 | 33.27% | +1.93 | 0.983 | $144.94 |
| 2025-09-03 | 34.62% | +3.16 | 0.935 | $145.21 |
| 2025-09-02 | 38.08% | +2.94 | 0.851 | $146.40 |
| 2025-08-29 | 32.21% | +2.19 | 0.971 | $148.73 |
| 2025-08-28 | 33.50% | +1.26 | 0.938 | $149.80 |
| 2025-08-27 | 34.31% | +1.03 | 0.940 | $150.33 |
| 2025-08-26 | 31.58% | +2.51 | 0.981 | $147.95 |
| 2025-08-25 | 32.02% | +2.93 | 0.991 | $149.55 |
| 2025-08-22 | 31.49% | +1.94 | 0.996 | $147.93 |
| 2025-08-21 | 32.67% | +2.65 | 0.985 | $143.25 |
| 2025-08-20 | 32.57% | +2.04 | 0.967 | $143.47 |
| 2025-08-19 | 33.91% | +3.11 | 0.953 | $145.91 |
| 2025-08-18 | 33.48% | +2.48 | 0.961 | $144.65 |
| 2025-08-15 | 32.84% | +2.04 | 0.987 | $145.41 |
| 2025-08-14 | 32.47% | +3.61 | 1.009 | $144.35 |
| 2025-08-13 | 32.40% | +2.23 | 1.002 | $145.84 |
| 2025-08-12 | 32.41% | +2.84 | 0.970 | $141.43 |
| 2025-08-11 | 33.41% | +1.58 | 0.973 | $137.72 |
| 2025-08-08 | 31.88% | +2.84 | 1.009 | $138.98 |
| 2025-08-07 | 32.06% | +1.43 | 1.016 | $137.79 |
| 2025-08-06 | 32.08% | +2.70 | 1.010 | $138.52 |
| 2025-08-05 | 32.37% | +3.95 | 1.001 | $139.45 |
| 2025-08-04 | 32.41% | +1.11 | 1.004 | $136.98 |
| 2025-08-01 | 35.28% | +1.91 | 0.947 | $138.67 |
| 2025-07-31 | 32.04% | +4.59 | 1.009 | $143.07 |
| 2025-07-30 | 31.84% | +2.85 | 1.001 | $142.95 |
| 2025-07-29 | 31.25% | +3.54 | 1.015 | $140.64 |
| 2025-07-28 | 35.25% | +5.86 | 0.930 | $144.52 |
| 2025-07-25 | 31.57% | +4.38 | 1.034 | $145.83 |
| 2025-07-24 | 34.33% | +3.57 | 0.961 | $141.43 |
| 2025-07-23 | 34.63% | +2.72 | 0.944 | $145.00 |
| 2025-07-22 | 33.21% | +5.45 | 0.991 | $143.77 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 338 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
38d (2026-12-18) · 66d (2027-01-15) · 129d (2027-03-19)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 38d | 66d | 129d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 37.62% | — | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 37.17% | 36.49% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 37.13% | 36.42% | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 37.13% | 36.67% | 39.24% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 37.17% | 36.52% | 39.21% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 37.53% | 37.19% | 39.18% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 38.18% | 37.51% | 39.27% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 38.35% | 37.56% | 39.42% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 38.38% | 37.88% | 39.80% |
| ATM | 38.45% | 38.52% | 40.28% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 38.92% | 38.79% | 40.50% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 39.63% | 38.92% | 39.89% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 40.13% | 38.85% | 40.22% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 40.58% | 38.78% | 40.71% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 41.13% | 39.60% | 41.19% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 41.81% | 40.87% | 42.01% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 42.57% | 42.06% | 43.04% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $257.34 | 38.45% | 41.13% | 37.17% | +3.96 | +0.70 | 10 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $257.63 | 38.52% | 39.60% | 36.52% | +3.08 | -0.46 | 12 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $259.44 | 40.28% | 41.19% | 39.21% | +1.98 | -0.08 | 14 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $259.80 | 40.15% | 41.16% | 38.37% | +2.80 | -0.39 | 17 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $262.52 | 39.65% | 41.65% | 38.06% | +3.59 | +0.21 | 27 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $264.88 | 39.68% | 41.67% | 37.91% | +3.77 | +0.11 | 23 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
6 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $257.34 | 38.45% | $259.33 | 10 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $257.63 | 38.52% | $261.11 | 12 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $259.44 | 40.28% | $266.99 | 14 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $259.80 | 40.15% | $268.96 | 17 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $262.52 | 39.65% | $275.19 | 27 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $264.88 | 39.68% | $283.26 | 23 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- —
- 60 天
- 38.51%
- 90 天
- 39.49%
- 180 天
- 39.92%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 1 次
- 20% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 7.5%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 68.3%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 收盘后 | 11.7% | +5.2% | 0.45× |
| 2026-07-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-26 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-28 | 收盘后 | 5.7% | +69.3% | 12.14× |
| 2025-04-28 | 收盘后 | 7.0% | +109.9% | 15.78× |
| 2025-01-27 | 收盘后 | 7.2% | +100.6% | 14.00× |
| 2024-10-21 | 收盘后 | 6.1% | +56.7% | 9.27× |
| 2024-07-22 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-22 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-23 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。