ETF · 期权分析
NUGT 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $138.19
- 30D ATM IV
- 86.03%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 85
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- -0.02
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.990
▼ -5.10 pts 较前一交易日
本交易日部分指标不可用
概览
NUGT 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 86.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±24.7% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 194 个交易日中 85% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 和 call 隐含波动率相同,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 86.03%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- -0.02
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +3.61
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.990
对应 30 天内约 ±24.7% 的波动，平常一天约 ±5.4%。
高于过去一年中 85% 的读数。
距平值同样远的 put 和 call，隐含波动率相同。
高于过去一年中 56% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 3.61 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 194 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 85%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 63%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 89%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 65%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $138.19
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $139.50
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 85.84%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 85.21%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- —
- 使用的到期日数
- 4
- 总未平仓量
- 16,199
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.67
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 338 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 86.03% | -0.02 | 0.990 | $138.19 |
| 2026-11-09 | 91.14% | +1.18 | 0.932 | $154.28 |
| 2026-11-06 | 87.21% | +14.18 | 0.978 | $142.24 |
| 2026-11-05 | 92.78% | +4.10 | 0.898 | $136.26 |
| 2026-11-04 | 77.23% | +4.52 | 1.038 | $132.69 |
| 2026-11-03 | 82.86% | +0.49 | 0.951 | $112.63 |
| 2026-11-02 | 86.53% | +0.93 | 0.967 | $117.10 |
| 2026-10-30 | 96.90% | -1.42 | 0.831 | $111.38 |
| 2026-10-29 | 81.12% | -3.01 | 0.984 | $124.38 |
| 2026-10-28 | — | — | — | $132.55 |
| 2026-10-27 | 74.63% | +1.37 | 1.066 | $130.12 |
| 2026-10-26 | 86.65% | -1.74 | 0.957 | $123.45 |
| 2026-10-23 | 86.25% | +1.83 | 0.962 | $121.08 |
| 2026-10-22 | 78.50% | +1.60 | 1.061 | $125.83 |
| 2026-10-21 | 79.01% | +6.25 | 1.010 | $142.16 |
| 2026-10-20 | 78.52% | +3.19 | 1.006 | $140.48 |
| 2026-10-19 | 82.80% | +0.32 | 0.996 | $141.60 |
| 2026-10-16 | 77.80% | +2.29 | 1.003 | $145.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | 80.91% | -2.14 | 0.965 | $143.33 |
| 2026-10-14 | 81.89% | -9.28 | 0.934 | $132.20 |
| 2026-10-13 | 73.15% | -5.52 | 1.090 | $144.96 |
| 2026-10-09 | 78.85% | +0.44 | 1.031 | $151.86 |
| 2026-10-08 | 78.90% | +2.55 | 1.026 | $143.22 |
| 2026-10-07 | 78.40% | -0.95 | 1.031 | $139.50 |
| 2026-10-06 | 77.15% | -0.85 | 1.046 | $148.65 |
| 2026-10-05 | 82.96% | -6.77 | 0.995 | $146.32 |
| 2026-10-02 | 80.03% | -6.14 | 0.989 | $147.01 |
| 2026-10-01 | 77.51% | -0.37 | 1.056 | $144.06 |
| 2026-09-30 | 78.96% | -2.62 | 1.047 | $147.74 |
| 2026-09-29 | 83.05% | -3.28 | 0.991 | $151.79 |
| 2026-09-28 | 85.74% | -4.73 | 0.995 | $147.95 |
| 2026-09-25 | 79.02% | -3.56 | 1.058 | $165.74 |
| 2026-09-24 | 83.48% | -5.35 | 1.037 | $163.91 |
| 2026-09-23 | 79.52% | -7.18 | 1.071 | $168.35 |
| 2026-09-22 | 84.53% | +0.89 | 0.993 | $184.39 |
| 2026-09-21 | 84.97% | -1.87 | 0.975 | $172.71 |
| 2026-09-18 | 85.83% | -4.02 | 1.035 | $176.52 |
| 2026-09-17 | 87.27% | -0.65 | 1.027 | $178.13 |
| 2026-09-16 | 88.46% | -12.69 | 1.020 | $166.79 |
| 2026-09-15 | 87.04% | -4.70 | 1.031 | $171.61 |
| 2026-09-14 | 89.13% | -1.99 | 0.993 | $171.74 |
| 2026-09-11 | 84.76% | -4.06 | 1.034 | $182.76 |
| 2026-09-10 | 90.12% | -4.15 | 0.996 | $179.04 |
| 2026-09-09 | 88.67% | -7.81 | 0.993 | $192.46 |
| 2026-09-08 | 91.92% | -2.71 | 1.001 | $188.48 |
| 2026-09-04 | 87.62% | -0.72 | 1.014 | $191.85 |
| 2026-09-03 | 89.32% | +1.78 | 0.998 | $200.56 |
| 2026-09-02 | 89.72% | -7.11 | 0.999 | $185.75 |
| 2026-09-01 | — | — | — | $174.94 |
| 2026-08-31 | 84.89% | -9.12 | 1.033 | $189.73 |
| 2026-08-28 | 90.27% | -15.28 | 0.988 | $194.47 |
| 2026-08-27 | 94.43% | -1.83 | 1.000 | $210.79 |
| 2026-08-26 | 95.78% | -7.00 | 0.991 | $205.78 |
| 2026-08-25 | 97.53% | -0.32 | 0.982 | $218.64 |
| 2026-08-24 | 103.74% | -14.10 | 0.923 | $210.50 |
| 2025-10-22 | 92.01% | +4.43 | 0.933 | $136.86 |
| 2025-10-21 | 95.35% | -3.53 | 0.894 | $136.39 |
| 2025-10-20 | 89.88% | +1.47 | — | $168.02 |
| 2025-10-17 | 94.65% | +0.96 | 0.938 | $160.52 |
| 2025-10-16 | 98.74% | +1.14 | — | $186.78 |
| 2025-10-15 | — | — | — | $174.09 |
| 2025-10-14 | 83.92% | -1.34 | 0.966 | $161.66 |
| 2025-10-10 | 81.59% | +0.56 | 0.969 | $151.09 |
| 2025-10-09 | 80.98% | +4.30 | 0.976 | $150.63 |
| 2025-10-08 | 78.58% | -1.57 | 0.999 | $165.14 |
| 2025-10-07 | 76.54% | -6.75 | 1.006 | $156.84 |
| 2025-10-06 | 77.15% | +0.29 | — | $163.37 |
| 2025-10-03 | 74.17% | +1.83 | 0.998 | $157.35 |
| 2025-10-02 | 76.01% | +2.87 | 1.013 | $157.23 |
| 2025-10-01 | 76.39% | -0.85 | — | $157.60 |
| 2025-09-30 | 77.83% | -4.37 | 1.000 | $154.44 |
| 2025-09-29 | 75.22% | +3.65 | — | $151.93 |
| 2025-09-26 | 72.94% | -1.18 | — | $147.67 |
| 2025-09-25 | 73.18% | -3.27 | — | $141.60 |
| 2025-09-24 | 72.00% | -1.07 | 1.022 | $138.85 |
| 2025-09-23 | 76.19% | -3.91 | 0.987 | $146.35 |
| 2025-09-22 | 75.79% | -5.33 | — | $146.39 |
| 2025-09-19 | 70.00% | -3.90 | 1.021 | $139.23 |
| 2025-09-18 | — | — | — | $126.15 |
| 2025-09-17 | 69.86% | -0.72 | 1.030 | $125.52 |
| 2025-09-16 | 71.58% | +3.81 | 1.009 | $126.97 |
| 2025-09-15 | 68.73% | -5.11 | 1.034 | $132.53 |
| 2025-09-12 | 69.94% | -4.75 | 1.020 | $129.78 |
| 2025-09-11 | 70.44% | -4.37 | 1.015 | $129.82 |
| 2025-09-10 | 68.60% | +0.57 | 1.048 | $125.01 |
| 2025-09-09 | 68.17% | -1.59 | 1.026 | $119.40 |
| 2025-09-08 | 68.52% | -2.17 | — | $120.84 |
| 2025-09-05 | 70.65% | -4.65 | 1.000 | $117.60 |
| 2025-09-04 | 68.04% | -1.49 | 1.009 | $111.46 |
| 2025-09-03 | 71.90% | -2.02 | 1.001 | $113.88 |
| 2025-09-02 | 74.09% | +1.46 | — | $112.46 |
| 2025-08-29 | — | — | — | $106.96 |
| 2025-08-28 | 60.68% | -3.20 | 1.051 | $100.70 |
| 2025-08-27 | — | — | — | $101.14 |
| 2025-08-26 | — | — | — | $101.71 |
| 2025-08-25 | — | — | — | $97.64 |
| 2025-08-22 | — | — | — | $97.41 |
| 2025-08-21 | — | — | — | $94.40 |
| 2025-08-20 | 61.66% | -4.69 | 1.018 | $91.27 |
| 2025-08-19 | 61.31% | -6.41 | 1.016 | $86.34 |
| 2025-08-18 | 59.08% | -3.32 | 1.078 | $91.23 |
| 2025-08-15 | 61.83% | -3.59 | — | $91.57 |
| 2025-08-14 | — | — | — | $89.75 |
| 2025-08-13 | — | — | — | $91.03 |
| 2025-08-12 | — | — | — | $91.33 |
| 2025-08-11 | — | — | — | $89.93 |
| 2025-08-08 | — | — | — | $91.10 |
| 2025-08-07 | — | — | — | $90.64 |
| 2025-08-06 | — | — | — | $88.85 |
| 2025-08-05 | — | — | — | $86.21 |
| 2025-08-04 | 67.26% | -5.13 | — | $81.65 |
| 2025-08-01 | — | — | — | $74.54 |
| 2025-07-31 | — | — | — | $72.30 |
| 2025-07-30 | — | — | — | $72.80 |
| 2025-07-29 | — | — | — | $76.96 |
| 2025-07-28 | 62.51% | +1.32 | 0.973 | $75.12 |
| 2025-07-25 | — | — | — | $79.00 |
| 2025-07-24 | — | — | — | $77.37 |
| 2025-07-23 | — | — | — | $78.94 |
| 2025-07-22 | — | — | — | $80.86 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 338 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
10d (2026-11-20) · 38d (2026-12-18) · 66d (2027-01-15)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 10d | 38d | 66d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Δ 看涨 | — | 94.90% | 89.35% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | — | 93.82% | 89.58% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | — | 91.19% | 90.34% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 92.84% | 89.31% | 91.26% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 91.59% | 93.63% | 88.90% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 92.10% | 89.81% | 89.33% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 104.43% | 90.75% | 85.71% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 92.79% | 88.76% | 86.78% |
| ATM | 93.53% | 85.21% | 85.94% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 94.64% | 87.61% | 87.19% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 100.46% | 83.38% | 87.80% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 99.36% | 86.77% | 79.80% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 98.88% | 83.61% | 81.87% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 103.33% | 88.08% | 81.82% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 104.77% | 88.60% | 87.16% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 105.75% | 92.80% | 86.92% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 107.89% | — | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $139.25 | 93.53% | 103.33% | 92.84% | +10.49 | +4.56 | 24 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $139.60 | 85.21% | 88.08% | 89.31% | -1.24 | +3.49 | 17 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $139.60 | 85.94% | 81.82% | 91.26% | -9.43 | +0.60 | 25 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $140.61 | 84.60% | 84.15% | 89.79% | -5.65 | +2.37 | 46 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
4 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $139.25 | 93.53% | $140.93 | 24 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $139.60 | 85.21% | $144.98 | 17 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $139.60 | 85.94% | $149.24 | 25 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $140.61 | 84.60% | $159.57 | 46 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 86.03%
- 60 天
- 85.84%
- 90 天
- 85.21%
- 180 天
- —
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。