股票 · 期权分析
PATH 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $12.83
- 30D ATM IV
- 78.72%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 95
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +4.51
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.786
▲ +0.76 pts 较前一交易日
概览
PATH 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 78.7%,相当于未来一个月约 ±22.6% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 229 个交易日中 95% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 4.51 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 21%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2026-12-02(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 4 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±18.4% 的波动,PATH 实际平均波动 12.6%,4 次中有 3 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 78.72%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +4.51
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.44
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.786
对应 30 天内约 ±22.6% 的波动，平常一天约 ±5.0%。
高于过去一年中 95% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 4.51 个点。
高于过去一年中 88% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.44 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 21%。
高于过去一年中 13% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 229 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 95%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 76%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 93%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 76%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $12.83
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $12.71
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 64.22%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 61.84%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 60.60%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 339,918
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.52
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 301 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 78.72% | +4.51 | 0.786 | $12.83 |
| 2026-11-09 | 77.96% | +5.85 | 0.806 | $12.98 |
| 2026-11-06 | 64.28% | +2.39 | 0.931 | $13.00 |
| 2026-11-05 | 66.16% | +0.20 | 0.972 | $13.01 |
| 2026-11-04 | 66.23% | +2.86 | 0.946 | $13.51 |
| 2026-11-03 | 66.91% | -1.73 | 0.941 | $13.13 |
| 2026-11-02 | 66.50% | -1.38 | 0.931 | $13.34 |
| 2026-10-30 | 59.01% | +1.21 | 1.065 | $13.73 |
| 2026-10-29 | 53.75% | -2.03 | 1.157 | $13.78 |
| 2026-10-28 | 59.78% | -2.54 | 1.086 | $14.19 |
| 2026-10-27 | 53.98% | +0.50 | 1.153 | $14.06 |
| 2026-10-26 | 55.24% | +0.63 | 1.135 | $14.30 |
| 2026-10-23 | 54.83% | -0.97 | 1.136 | $14.13 |
| 2026-10-22 | 54.39% | +0.05 | 1.138 | $13.94 |
| 2026-10-21 | 52.81% | +0.71 | 1.162 | $13.71 |
| 2026-10-20 | 52.92% | -0.57 | 1.161 | $13.43 |
| 2026-10-19 | 52.87% | +0.37 | 1.168 | $13.12 |
| 2026-10-16 | 55.25% | -0.84 | 1.127 | $12.85 |
| 2026-10-15 | 53.05% | +1.05 | 1.159 | $13.71 |
| 2026-10-14 | 55.10% | -0.63 | 1.110 | $13.06 |
| 2026-10-13 | 56.63% | -1.04 | 1.106 | $13.25 |
| 2026-10-09 | 53.37% | -0.60 | 1.160 | $13.48 |
| 2026-10-08 | 55.65% | +1.91 | 1.124 | $13.25 |
| 2026-10-07 | 53.77% | -0.59 | 1.164 | $13.07 |
| 2026-10-06 | 54.83% | -2.23 | 1.141 | $13.10 |
| 2026-10-05 | 55.54% | -1.15 | 1.143 | $13.16 |
| 2026-10-02 | 53.70% | +0.38 | 1.190 | $13.12 |
| 2026-10-01 | 56.93% | -0.64 | 1.132 | $13.32 |
| 2026-09-30 | 56.91% | -0.58 | 1.153 | $12.84 |
| 2026-09-29 | 58.08% | -2.17 | 1.107 | $12.32 |
| 2026-09-28 | 55.69% | -0.15 | 1.150 | $12.19 |
| 2026-09-25 | 54.04% | -0.64 | 1.176 | $12.46 |
| 2026-09-24 | 56.22% | -2.35 | 1.150 | $12.60 |
| 2026-09-23 | 57.12% | -3.14 | 1.127 | $13.04 |
| 2026-09-22 | 59.73% | -3.89 | 1.116 | $13.25 |
| 2026-09-21 | 60.42% | -0.33 | 1.110 | $13.59 |
| 2026-09-18 | 57.27% | -0.99 | 1.155 | $13.39 |
| 2025-10-22 | 64.88% | -10.53 | 1.066 | $15.03 |
| 2025-10-21 | 64.84% | -5.36 | 1.109 | $16.28 |
| 2025-10-20 | 63.26% | -10.47 | 1.127 | $15.93 |
| 2025-10-17 | 68.79% | -13.92 | 1.063 | $15.44 |
| 2025-10-16 | 82.17% | -17.82 | 1.015 | $15.93 |
| 2025-10-15 | 83.23% | -18.49 | 1.031 | $16.69 |
| 2025-10-14 | 83.81% | -20.43 | 1.030 | $16.48 |
| 2025-10-10 | 93.93% | -37.48 | 1.013 | $17.05 |
| 2025-10-09 | 91.57% | -29.39 | 0.961 | $18.51 |
| 2025-10-08 | 73.59% | -22.61 | 1.015 | $15.58 |
| 2025-10-07 | 64.66% | -9.88 | 1.047 | $14.82 |
| 2025-10-06 | 66.63% | -13.68 | 1.028 | $14.52 |
| 2025-10-03 | 52.01% | -7.92 | 1.110 | $12.90 |
| 2025-10-02 | 50.95% | -8.09 | 1.125 | $12.75 |
| 2025-10-01 | 53.79% | -13.93 | 1.085 | $12.99 |
| 2025-09-30 | 53.97% | -11.44 | 1.090 | $13.38 |
| 2025-09-29 | 43.74% | -0.29 | 1.206 | $12.56 |
| 2025-09-26 | 45.22% | -3.16 | 1.182 | $12.21 |
| 2025-09-25 | 46.47% | -3.06 | 1.143 | $12.14 |
| 2025-09-24 | 47.49% | -3.57 | 1.152 | $12.32 |
| 2025-09-23 | 50.15% | -5.71 | 1.140 | $12.53 |
| 2025-09-22 | 53.62% | -6.63 | 1.105 | $13.14 |
| 2025-09-19 | 41.53% | +0.84 | 1.181 | $11.87 |
| 2025-09-18 | 39.46% | -1.53 | 1.227 | $12.15 |
| 2025-09-17 | 41.13% | -2.57 | 1.184 | $11.82 |
| 2025-09-16 | 39.64% | -1.28 | 1.222 | $11.57 |
| 2025-09-15 | 40.87% | -2.13 | 1.175 | $11.59 |
| 2025-09-12 | 39.71% | +1.82 | 1.047 | $11.40 |
| 2025-09-11 | 37.28% | -1.76 | 1.204 | $11.69 |
| 2025-09-10 | 37.75% | -0.94 | 1.169 | $11.61 |
| 2025-09-09 | 38.49% | +0.09 | 1.151 | $11.90 |
| 2025-09-08 | 38.74% | +0.31 | 1.135 | $11.80 |
| 2025-09-05 | 40.10% | -1.85 | 1.099 | $11.49 |
| 2025-09-04 | 65.79% | +0.32 | 0.797 | $10.85 |
| 2025-09-03 | 66.83% | -0.53 | 0.823 | $10.88 |
| 2025-09-02 | 67.02% | -0.90 | 0.813 | $10.90 |
| 2025-08-29 | 66.28% | -1.11 | 0.790 | $11.12 |
| 2025-08-28 | 65.02% | -3.30 | 0.802 | $11.26 |
| 2025-08-27 | 66.27% | -1.24 | 0.773 | $11.14 |
| 2025-08-26 | 65.54% | -1.18 | 0.769 | $10.82 |
| 2025-08-25 | 64.41% | -2.36 | 0.795 | $11.03 |
| 2025-08-22 | 65.06% | -0.42 | 0.770 | $11.17 |
| 2025-08-21 | 65.49% | -0.97 | 0.832 | $10.89 |
| 2025-08-20 | 64.87% | -2.19 | 0.780 | $10.96 |
| 2025-08-19 | 65.16% | -0.83 | 0.771 | $10.99 |
| 2025-08-18 | 65.49% | +0.05 | 0.766 | $11.17 |
| 2025-08-15 | 63.00% | -1.35 | 0.785 | $10.96 |
| 2025-08-14 | 63.34% | -0.32 | 0.776 | $10.73 |
| 2025-08-13 | 63.81% | +2.44 | 0.766 | $10.99 |
| 2025-08-12 | 62.74% | -2.64 | 0.791 | $10.50 |
| 2025-08-11 | 64.24% | -0.55 | 0.773 | $10.44 |
| 2025-08-08 | 61.86% | -2.07 | 0.800 | $10.66 |
| 2025-08-07 | 56.34% | +3.83 | 0.881 | $10.93 |
| 2025-08-06 | 59.01% | -0.64 | 0.835 | $11.22 |
| 2025-08-05 | 49.06% | +3.19 | 1.011 | $11.22 |
| 2025-08-04 | — | — | — | $11.34 |
| 2025-08-01 | — | — | — | $11.11 |
| 2025-07-31 | 43.39% | -4.50 | 1.073 | $11.75 |
| 2025-07-30 | 41.04% | +1.50 | 1.171 | $12.01 |
| 2025-07-29 | 44.58% | +1.05 | 1.060 | $12.08 |
| 2025-07-28 | 47.45% | +0.23 | 1.004 | $12.21 |
| 2025-07-25 | 41.12% | -0.44 | 1.109 | $12.18 |
| 2025-07-24 | 46.10% | -0.46 | 1.078 | $12.32 |
| 2025-07-23 | 39.78% | +2.14 | 1.212 | $12.62 |
| 2025-07-22 | — | — | — | $12.59 |
| 2025-07-21 | 43.80% | -1.03 | 1.076 | $12.45 |
| 2025-07-18 | — | — | — | $12.59 |
| 2025-07-17 | — | — | — | $12.33 |
| 2025-07-16 | 37.09% | +2.23 | 1.282 | $12.40 |
| 2025-07-15 | — | — | — | $12.38 |
| 2025-07-14 | 41.61% | +1.16 | 1.130 | $12.48 |
| 2025-07-11 | — | — | — | $12.35 |
| 2025-07-10 | 41.00% | +1.96 | 1.139 | $12.89 |
| 2025-07-09 | 42.12% | +3.06 | 1.071 | $13.33 |
| 2025-07-08 | 33.85% | +4.44 | 1.358 | $13.22 |
| 2025-07-07 | 34.63% | +4.33 | 1.276 | $13.16 |
| 2025-07-03 | 31.52% | +3.96 | 1.408 | $13.29 |
| 2025-07-02 | 40.94% | +3.12 | 1.114 | $12.85 |
| 2025-07-01 | 37.23% | +0.95 | 1.266 | $12.69 |
| 2025-06-30 | 38.49% | -0.19 | 1.218 | $12.80 |
| 2025-06-27 | — | — | — | $12.73 |
| 2025-06-26 | 32.24% | +2.78 | 1.441 | $12.77 |
| 2025-06-25 | 35.10% | +1.20 | 1.337 | $12.47 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 301 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 301 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 75.98% | 57.71% | 59.05% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 68.69% | 58.92% | 54.09% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 64.62% | 56.93% | 52.55% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 64.16% | 55.50% | 53.05% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 64.17% | 54.77% | 53.21% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 64.19% | 54.66% | 52.63% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 64.20% | 55.22% | 52.41% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 64.21% | 56.03% | 52.57% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 64.18% | 56.74% | 52.86% |
| ATM | 64.11% | 57.44% | 53.43% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 64.04% | 58.14% | 54.59% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 63.97% | 58.56% | 55.30% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 63.93% | 58.63% | 55.12% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 64.06% | 58.67% | 54.82% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 64.57% | 58.74% | 54.76% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 65.55% | 59.51% | 54.90% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 67.16% | 61.72% | 55.35% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 72.87% | 65.10% | 57.68% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $12.77 | 64.11% | 64.57% | 64.17% | +0.40 | +0.26 | 8 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $12.77 | 57.44% | 58.74% | 54.77% | +3.97 | -0.69 | 12 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $12.79 | 53.43% | 54.76% | 53.21% | +1.55 | +0.55 | 12 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $12.74 | 80.79% | 82.52% | 79.49% | +3.03 | +0.22 | 14 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $12.71 | 78.45% | 81.27% | 76.57% | +4.71 | +0.47 | 13 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $12.83 | 71.43% | 73.59% | 72.30% | +1.28 | +1.51 | 13 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $12.77 | 70.61% | 75.78% | 70.63% | +5.15 | +2.59 | 8 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $12.89 | 62.53% | 64.66% | 62.01% | +2.65 | +0.81 | 18 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $12.90 | 61.64% | 62.69% | 58.55% | +4.13 | -1.02 | 10 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $12.83 | 62.65% | 64.13% | 67.33% | -3.20 | +3.07 | 13 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $13.07 | 60.27% | 64.89% | 64.61% | +0.28 | +4.48 | 15 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $12.96 | 65.40% | 65.26% | 65.31% | -0.05 | -0.12 | 14 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $13.20 | 63.79% | 64.88% | 64.35% | +0.53 | +0.83 | 8 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $12.77 | 64.11% | $12.80 | 8 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $12.77 | 57.44% | $12.83 | 12 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $12.79 | 53.43% | $12.88 | 12 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $12.74 | 80.79% | $13.02 | 14 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $12.71 | 78.45% | $13.04 | 13 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $12.83 | 71.43% | $13.18 | 13 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $12.77 | 70.61% | $13.16 | 8 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $12.89 | 62.53% | $13.36 | 18 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $12.90 | 61.64% | $13.60 | 10 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $12.83 | 62.65% | $13.75 | 13 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $13.07 | 60.27% | $14.38 | 15 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $12.96 | 65.40% | $14.74 | 14 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $13.20 | 63.79% | $15.70 | 8 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 78.72%
- 60 天
- 64.22%
- 90 天
- 61.84%
- 180 天
- 60.60%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 301 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 4 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 4 次中 3 次
- 75% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 18.4%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 12.6%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-11 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-03 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-04 | 收盘后 | 16.8% | +23.4% | 1.39× |
| 2025-05-29 | 收盘后 | 16.6% | +3.5% | 0.21× |
| 2025-03-12 | 收盘后 | 21.2% | +13.2% | 0.62× |
| 2024-12-05 | 收盘后 | 19.2% | -10.4% | 0.54× |
| 2024-09-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-13 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。