股票 · 期权分析
PCG 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $13.23
- 30D ATM IV
- 61.03%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- —
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- -10.02
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.871
▲ +1.84 pts 较前一交易日
概览
PCG 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 61.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±17.5% 的波动。它在本站的历史只有 336 个交易日,不到计算百分位所需的 180 个,所以这个读数还没有和它自己的过去作比较。
它的 25-delta call 比 put 的隐含波动率高 10.02 个波动率点。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 13%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-21(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±4.2% 的波动,PCG 实际平均波动 10.9%,6 次中有 3 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 61.03%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- -10.02
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +3.48
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.871
对应 30 天内约 ±17.5% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.8%。
距平值同样远时，call 比 put的隐含波动率高 10.02 个点。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 3.48 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 13%。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 164 个交易日(一年窗口)
这个窗口内的历史不足,无法定位当前读数。
- IV 百分位,1 年
- —
- IV 排名,1 年
- —
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 98%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 86%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $13.23
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $13.28
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 56.57%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 53.18%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 46.65%
- 使用的到期日数
- 9
- 总未平仓量
- 2,482,393
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.15
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 336 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 61.03% | -10.02 | 0.871 | $13.23 |
| 2026-11-09 | 59.19% | -11.64 | 0.864 | $13.14 |
| 2026-11-06 | 58.86% | -7.71 | 0.848 | $12.97 |
| 2026-11-05 | 56.22% | -5.18 | 0.858 | $13.23 |
| 2026-11-04 | 53.04% | -5.85 | 0.892 | $13.40 |
| 2026-11-03 | 52.01% | -8.83 | 0.898 | $13.29 |
| 2026-11-02 | 49.04% | -3.21 | 0.920 | $13.28 |
| 2026-10-30 | 42.73% | -1.30 | 1.007 | $13.18 |
| 2026-10-29 | 42.31% | -1.53 | 1.029 | $13.23 |
| 2026-10-28 | — | — | — | $13.15 |
| 2026-10-27 | 43.21% | -2.99 | 1.054 | $12.96 |
| 2026-10-26 | — | — | — | $12.85 |
| 2026-10-23 | 47.37% | -4.25 | 1.015 | $12.63 |
| 2026-10-22 | 48.95% | -3.38 | 0.972 | $12.98 |
| 2026-10-21 | 50.25% | -1.56 | 0.950 | $13.15 |
| 2026-10-20 | 52.26% | -2.52 | 0.937 | $13.18 |
| 2026-10-19 | 51.65% | -2.42 | 0.941 | $13.13 |
| 2026-10-16 | 50.84% | -1.84 | 0.991 | $13.09 |
| 2026-10-15 | 47.95% | +2.81 | 1.027 | $12.96 |
| 2026-10-14 | 46.50% | +1.99 | 1.055 | $13.15 |
| 2026-10-13 | 50.03% | +2.28 | 0.999 | $13.33 |
| 2026-10-09 | 49.43% | -5.22 | 0.995 | $13.13 |
| 2026-10-08 | 42.42% | +0.45 | 1.117 | $12.67 |
| 2026-10-07 | 41.95% | -1.06 | 1.093 | $12.79 |
| 2026-10-06 | 41.13% | -0.19 | 1.153 | $12.50 |
| 2026-10-05 | 42.81% | -0.65 | 1.050 | $12.35 |
| 2026-10-02 | 41.26% | -1.36 | 1.094 | $12.32 |
| 2026-10-01 | 41.09% | +0.25 | 1.159 | $12.17 |
| 2026-09-30 | 45.20% | +0.57 | 1.022 | $12.25 |
| 2026-09-29 | 41.54% | -0.93 | 1.100 | $12.18 |
| 2026-09-28 | — | — | — | $11.95 |
| 2026-09-25 | 38.37% | +1.79 | 1.176 | $12.34 |
| 2026-09-24 | — | — | — | $12.32 |
| 2026-09-23 | — | — | — | $12.41 |
| 2026-09-22 | — | — | — | $12.88 |
| 2026-09-21 | 39.14% | +3.28 | 1.236 | $12.94 |
| 2026-09-18 | 40.58% | -1.84 | 1.190 | $13.20 |
| 2026-09-17 | 42.03% | -3.22 | 1.218 | $13.38 |
| 2026-09-16 | 43.75% | -2.01 | 1.175 | $13.35 |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — | — | $13.15 |
| 2026-09-14 | 57.32% | -0.52 | 1.013 | $13.60 |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — | — | $13.80 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | — | $14.03 |
| 2026-09-09 | 63.79% | -1.37 | 0.991 | $14.19 |
| 2026-09-08 | — | — | — | $14.82 |
| 2026-09-04 | — | — | — | $14.30 |
| 2026-09-03 | 59.17% | -8.64 | 0.979 | $13.96 |
| 2026-09-02 | 58.25% | -11.68 | 0.870 | $13.33 |
| 2026-09-01 | 56.58% | -4.90 | 0.813 | $14.06 |
| 2026-08-31 | 49.75% | -1.39 | 0.808 | $13.27 |
| 2026-08-28 | — | — | — | $16.60 |
| 2026-08-27 | 48.97% | -4.21 | 0.746 | $17.95 |
| 2026-08-26 | 50.20% | -0.64 | 0.770 | $18.22 |
| 2026-08-25 | 53.37% | -4.99 | 0.732 | $18.36 |
| 2025-10-22 | — | — | — | $16.58 |
| 2025-10-21 | 36.59% | +2.46 | 0.926 | $16.75 |
| 2025-10-20 | 35.64% | +1.30 | 0.956 | $16.68 |
| 2025-10-17 | 36.85% | +2.25 | 0.944 | $16.42 |
| 2025-10-16 | — | — | — | $16.50 |
| 2025-10-15 | 37.80% | +1.57 | 0.929 | $16.68 |
| 2025-10-14 | 37.70% | +2.09 | 0.932 | $16.40 |
| 2025-10-10 | 38.44% | +1.43 | 0.944 | $15.86 |
| 2025-10-09 | 36.58% | +0.49 | 0.954 | $16.24 |
| 2025-10-08 | 32.72% | +6.48 | 1.075 | $16.72 |
| 2025-10-07 | 37.23% | +1.48 | 0.938 | $16.20 |
| 2025-10-06 | 36.12% | -0.24 | 0.970 | $16.04 |
| 2025-10-03 | 36.29% | +2.19 | 0.978 | $15.90 |
| 2025-10-02 | 37.64% | +0.76 | 0.978 | $15.63 |
| 2025-10-01 | 38.05% | +2.05 | 0.979 | $15.66 |
| 2025-09-30 | 36.36% | +0.91 | 1.002 | $15.08 |
| 2025-09-29 | 35.83% | +2.24 | 0.996 | $15.06 |
| 2025-09-26 | 34.33% | +2.79 | 1.032 | $14.97 |
| 2025-09-25 | 34.61% | +1.56 | 1.017 | $14.44 |
| 2025-09-24 | 34.73% | +1.75 | 1.038 | $14.66 |
| 2025-09-23 | 35.89% | +2.00 | 1.036 | $14.73 |
| 2025-09-22 | 35.74% | +2.23 | 1.031 | $14.67 |
| 2025-09-19 | 37.09% | +5.39 | 1.015 | $14.91 |
| 2025-09-18 | 35.92% | +3.01 | 1.028 | $14.90 |
| 2025-09-17 | 37.20% | +2.17 | 0.995 | $15.09 |
| 2025-09-16 | 37.73% | +4.19 | 0.994 | $14.95 |
| 2025-09-15 | 37.22% | +2.72 | 0.985 | $15.34 |
| 2025-09-12 | 41.21% | +3.16 | 0.914 | $15.45 |
| 2025-09-11 | 43.42% | +7.95 | 0.929 | $15.73 |
| 2025-09-10 | 50.12% | -0.40 | 0.840 | $15.26 |
| 2025-09-09 | 66.56% | +5.59 | 0.710 | $14.97 |
| 2025-09-08 | 58.06% | +1.15 | 0.763 | $14.56 |
| 2025-09-05 | 48.54% | +9.67 | 0.850 | $15.09 |
| 2025-09-04 | 53.46% | +2.04 | 0.760 | $15.23 |
| 2025-09-03 | 54.63% | +0.86 | 0.730 | $15.35 |
| 2025-09-02 | 58.38% | -0.78 | 0.704 | $15.32 |
| 2025-08-29 | 58.73% | +0.91 | 0.746 | $15.28 |
| 2025-08-28 | 59.80% | +1.47 | 0.717 | $14.99 |
| 2025-08-27 | 59.47% | +0.79 | 0.747 | $15.08 |
| 2025-08-26 | 58.23% | +0.73 | 0.733 | $15.05 |
| 2025-08-25 | 60.36% | -0.65 | 0.740 | $14.91 |
| 2025-08-22 | 59.97% | +4.11 | 0.742 | $15.19 |
| 2025-08-21 | 68.17% | +0.34 | 0.699 | $14.67 |
| 2025-08-20 | 52.91% | -0.59 | 0.801 | $15.36 |
| 2025-08-19 | 53.49% | +0.42 | 0.839 | $15.60 |
| 2025-08-18 | 47.58% | -1.24 | 0.856 | $15.10 |
| 2025-08-15 | — | — | — | $15.02 |
| 2025-08-14 | 44.28% | +1.25 | 0.897 | $15.31 |
| 2025-08-13 | 43.03% | +0.44 | 0.917 | $15.25 |
| 2025-08-12 | 43.07% | +1.05 | 0.915 | $15.46 |
| 2025-08-11 | — | — | — | $15.11 |
| 2025-08-08 | 40.60% | +3.45 | 0.996 | $15.00 |
| 2025-08-07 | 42.12% | +0.82 | 0.922 | $15.05 |
| 2025-08-06 | 39.89% | +3.14 | 0.966 | $15.13 |
| 2025-08-05 | 40.37% | +2.04 | 0.997 | $15.17 |
| 2025-08-04 | 41.71% | -0.49 | 0.927 | $15.04 |
| 2025-08-01 | — | — | — | $14.12 |
| 2025-07-31 | — | — | — | $14.02 |
| 2025-07-30 | 42.75% | +4.44 | — | $14.02 |
| 2025-07-29 | 39.65% | +3.26 | 0.969 | $13.99 |
| 2025-07-28 | 41.42% | +0.60 | 0.956 | $13.98 |
| 2025-07-25 | 42.12% | +0.92 | 0.982 | $14.08 |
| 2025-07-24 | 38.95% | +1.85 | 0.971 | $13.85 |
| 2025-07-23 | 36.02% | -0.17 | 1.006 | $13.73 |
| 2025-07-22 | — | — | — | $13.66 |
| 2025-07-21 | — | — | — | $13.38 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 336 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 336 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27) · 24d (2026-12-04)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 10d | 17d | 24d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 117.74% | — | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 86.33% | 85.84% | 82.95% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 81.69% | 75.52% | 79.25% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 75.42% | 70.81% | 77.25% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 72.30% | 70.37% | 75.26% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 68.71% | 70.56% | 73.10% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 66.91% | 64.99% | 70.37% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 65.83% | 62.87% | 67.91% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 64.76% | 62.04% | 66.79% |
| ATM | 63.55% | 61.28% | 65.74% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 62.41% | 60.61% | 63.57% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 61.46% | 60.46% | 62.30% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 60.58% | 60.50% | 61.66% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 59.84% | 60.57% | 61.91% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 59.35% | 60.81% | 63.60% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 58.91% | 61.19% | 64.37% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 58.49% | 61.76% | — |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 58.12% | 62.55% | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | — | 63.28% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $13.20 | 63.55% | 59.35% | 72.30% | -12.95 | +2.27 | 16 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $13.24 | 61.28% | 60.81% | 70.37% | -9.56 | +4.31 | 13 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $13.26 | 65.74% | 63.60% | 75.26% | -11.66 | +3.69 | 11 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $13.28 | 60.39% | 58.95% | 68.74% | -9.79 | +3.45 | 11 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $13.25 | 60.64% | 57.84% | 68.72% | -10.88 | +2.64 | 10 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $13.24 | 55.90% | 52.86% | 59.50% | -6.65 | +0.28 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $13.35 | 50.81% | 52.41% | 52.32% | +0.09 | +1.55 | 13 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $13.45 | 44.64% | 46.17% | 47.28% | -1.10 | +2.08 | 12 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $13.51 | 42.46% | 44.65% | 42.75% | +1.90 | +1.25 | 8 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
9 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $13.20 | 63.55% | $13.27 | 16 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $13.24 | 61.28% | $13.35 | 13 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $13.26 | 65.74% | $13.45 | 11 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $13.28 | 60.39% | $13.49 | 11 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $13.25 | 60.64% | $13.51 | 10 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $13.24 | 55.90% | $13.62 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $13.35 | 50.81% | $13.97 | 13 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $13.45 | 44.64% | $14.27 | 12 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $13.51 | 42.46% | $14.59 | 8 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 61.03%
- 60 天
- 56.57%
- 90 天
- 53.18%
- 180 天
- 46.65%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 336 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 3 次
- 50% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 4.2%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 10.9%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 未说明时间 | 2.9% | -0.4% | 0.13× |
| 2026-10-22 | 收盘后 | 2.9% | -2.7% | 0.93× |
| 2026-07-23 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-23 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-12 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-23 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-31 | 收盘后 | 2.5% | +31.0% | 12.37× |
| 2025-04-24 | 收盘后 | 2.3% | +5.6% | 2.39× |
| 2025-02-13 | 收盘后 | 2.4% | +15.8% | 6.59× |
| 2024-11-07 | 收盘后 | 11.9% | -9.8% | 0.83× |
| 2024-07-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-22 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-26 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。