股票 · 期权分析
PSX 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $262.91
- 30D ATM IV
- 41.10%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 78
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +2.43
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.981
▼ -2.49 pts 较前一交易日
概览
PSX 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 41.1%,相当于未来一个月约 ±11.8% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 240 个交易日中 78% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 2.43 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 2%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-30(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±4.6% 的波动,PSX 实际平均波动 54.7%,6 次中有 3 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 41.10%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +2.43
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.10
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.981
对应 30 天内约 ±11.8% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.6%。
高于过去一年中 78% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 2.43 个点。
高于过去一年中 38% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.10 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 2%。
高于过去一年中 45% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 240 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 78%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 35%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 83%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 38%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $262.91
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $263.40
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 39.27%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 40.32%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 41.19%
- 使用的到期日数
- 14
- 总未平仓量
- 54,377
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.66
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 337 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 41.10% | +2.43 | 0.981 | $262.91 |
| 2026-11-10 | 43.59% | +1.81 | 0.966 | $250.70 |
| 2026-11-09 | 44.26% | +3.23 | 0.960 | $253.02 |
| 2026-11-06 | 44.58% | +2.79 | 0.968 | $245.72 |
| 2026-11-05 | 47.99% | -1.58 | 0.921 | $247.04 |
| 2026-11-04 | 48.07% | +2.77 | 0.929 | $259.63 |
| 2026-11-03 | 46.34% | -0.62 | 0.966 | $271.94 |
| 2026-11-02 | 47.03% | +1.77 | 0.958 | $275.04 |
| 2026-10-30 | 44.97% | +1.16 | 0.996 | $282.83 |
| 2026-10-29 | 42.94% | -1.23 | 0.978 | $273.61 |
| 2026-10-28 | 42.97% | -1.06 | 0.984 | $273.76 |
| 2026-10-27 | 46.33% | -0.65 | 0.926 | $268.53 |
| 2026-10-26 | 45.96% | +1.03 | 0.960 | $288.85 |
| 2026-10-23 | 44.83% | +0.76 | 0.966 | $283.18 |
| 2026-10-22 | 44.98% | +0.44 | 0.951 | $284.63 |
| 2026-10-21 | 46.03% | +0.31 | 0.928 | $290.07 |
| 2026-10-20 | 44.19% | +0.42 | 0.962 | $291.03 |
| 2026-10-19 | 45.13% | -0.71 | 0.959 | $290.55 |
| 2026-10-16 | 45.71% | +0.37 | 0.949 | $293.17 |
| 2026-10-15 | 46.06% | +1.57 | 0.948 | $289.20 |
| 2026-10-14 | 47.17% | -0.72 | 0.936 | $297.29 |
| 2026-10-13 | 45.13% | +0.80 | 0.964 | $292.73 |
| 2026-10-09 | 42.13% | +1.70 | 0.992 | $278.18 |
| 2026-10-08 | 42.94% | +0.62 | 0.979 | $281.60 |
| 2026-10-07 | 42.29% | +1.10 | 0.988 | $271.62 |
| 2026-10-06 | 42.70% | +2.56 | 0.982 | $269.79 |
| 2026-10-05 | 43.06% | -0.46 | 0.979 | $269.72 |
| 2026-10-02 | 42.10% | +1.99 | 1.011 | $264.58 |
| 2026-10-01 | 43.37% | +1.55 | 0.993 | $264.23 |
| 2026-09-30 | 44.32% | -0.07 | 0.976 | $255.31 |
| 2026-09-29 | 45.47% | +0.96 | 0.952 | $252.25 |
| 2026-09-28 | 45.09% | +1.10 | 0.971 | $253.55 |
| 2026-09-25 | 42.19% | +2.06 | 1.032 | $255.75 |
| 2026-09-24 | 43.41% | +0.42 | 1.031 | $255.87 |
| 2026-09-23 | 43.71% | +2.12 | 1.044 | $256.48 |
| 2026-09-22 | 43.17% | -0.07 | 1.036 | $256.78 |
| 2026-09-21 | 41.96% | +1.34 | 1.036 | $261.75 |
| 2026-09-18 | 40.49% | +1.65 | 1.090 | $273.13 |
| 2026-09-17 | 40.56% | +0.94 | 1.066 | $274.21 |
| 2026-09-16 | 43.18% | +1.72 | 1.028 | $264.63 |
| 2026-09-15 | 44.65% | +0.72 | 0.986 | $264.93 |
| 2026-09-14 | 39.89% | -1.03 | 1.056 | $257.06 |
| 2026-09-11 | 38.50% | -1.54 | 1.090 | $259.47 |
| 2026-09-10 | 39.45% | +0.28 | 1.056 | $258.51 |
| 2026-09-09 | 39.68% | +1.25 | 1.073 | $260.78 |
| 2026-09-08 | — | — | — | $259.14 |
| 2026-09-04 | 37.68% | +1.48 | 1.089 | $255.09 |
| 2026-09-03 | 37.72% | +0.21 | 1.092 | $254.66 |
| 2026-09-02 | 38.35% | +1.66 | 1.058 | $256.09 |
| 2026-09-01 | 39.15% | +0.09 | 1.023 | $252.02 |
| 2026-08-31 | 37.14% | +1.27 | 1.046 | $246.58 |
| 2026-08-28 | 35.87% | +1.10 | 1.069 | $244.01 |
| 2026-08-27 | 35.69% | +0.35 | 1.092 | $239.81 |
| 2026-08-26 | 37.02% | -0.49 | 1.065 | $242.23 |
| 2026-08-25 | 35.61% | +0.34 | 1.095 | $236.90 |
| 2025-10-22 | — | — | — | $131.40 |
| 2025-10-21 | — | — | — | $128.60 |
| 2025-10-20 | — | — | — | $130.34 |
| 2025-10-17 | 35.67% | +5.19 | 0.912 | $129.27 |
| 2025-10-16 | — | — | — | $128.36 |
| 2025-10-15 | 34.97% | +6.44 | 0.882 | $129.57 |
| 2025-10-14 | — | — | — | $130.84 |
| 2025-10-10 | — | — | — | $126.76 |
| 2025-10-09 | 32.28% | +2.99 | 0.931 | $131.09 |
| 2025-10-08 | 32.08% | +1.22 | 0.940 | $131.30 |
| 2025-10-07 | 32.20% | +3.34 | 0.938 | $132.37 |
| 2025-10-06 | 32.10% | +3.07 | 0.937 | $132.92 |
| 2025-10-03 | 31.25% | +2.15 | 0.968 | $133.01 |
| 2025-10-02 | 31.69% | +3.29 | 0.938 | $134.94 |
| 2025-10-01 | 31.12% | +2.98 | 0.948 | $134.59 |
| 2025-09-30 | 30.56% | +2.93 | 0.966 | $136.02 |
| 2025-09-29 | 29.03% | +3.07 | 1.014 | $137.57 |
| 2025-09-26 | 28.16% | +3.32 | 1.024 | $139.46 |
| 2025-09-25 | 27.77% | +2.88 | 1.040 | $139.08 |
| 2025-09-24 | 28.03% | +2.91 | 1.026 | $136.59 |
| 2025-09-23 | 27.94% | +3.14 | 1.034 | $132.28 |
| 2025-09-22 | 27.47% | -0.09 | 1.040 | $129.57 |
| 2025-09-19 | 29.56% | +2.61 | 0.969 | $129.72 |
| 2025-09-18 | 27.93% | +2.57 | 1.034 | $131.35 |
| 2025-09-17 | 27.92% | +3.24 | 1.024 | $133.14 |
| 2025-09-16 | 28.31% | +3.05 | 1.021 | $133.04 |
| 2025-09-15 | 28.28% | +3.40 | 1.023 | $131.18 |
| 2025-09-12 | 29.44% | +2.40 | 0.974 | $130.78 |
| 2025-09-11 | 28.11% | +2.23 | 1.029 | $132.52 |
| 2025-09-10 | 28.35% | +3.40 | 1.025 | $131.42 |
| 2025-09-09 | 28.27% | +3.33 | 1.034 | $132.29 |
| 2025-09-08 | 27.77% | +2.98 | 1.041 | $130.21 |
| 2025-09-05 | 26.94% | +3.48 | 1.055 | $131.55 |
| 2025-09-04 | 26.99% | +3.39 | 1.065 | $131.58 |
| 2025-09-03 | 27.49% | +3.23 | 1.055 | $130.53 |
| 2025-09-02 | 28.64% | +3.33 | 1.000 | $133.84 |
| 2025-08-29 | 27.45% | +1.81 | 1.043 | $133.58 |
| 2025-08-28 | 25.55% | +3.99 | 1.110 | $132.83 |
| 2025-08-27 | 27.37% | +3.41 | 1.058 | $132.62 |
| 2025-08-26 | 29.44% | +3.74 | 1.003 | $129.89 |
| 2025-08-25 | 28.91% | +4.28 | 1.031 | $129.52 |
| 2025-08-22 | 27.94% | +3.01 | 1.042 | $129.94 |
| 2025-08-21 | 28.60% | +3.86 | 1.110 | $124.45 |
| 2025-08-20 | 28.13% | +3.51 | 1.063 | $123.57 |
| 2025-08-19 | 28.30% | +4.12 | 1.057 | $122.17 |
| 2025-08-18 | 28.00% | +4.00 | 1.058 | $122.84 |
| 2025-08-15 | 28.00% | +4.01 | 1.026 | $123.61 |
| 2025-08-14 | 29.43% | +2.94 | 1.004 | $122.73 |
| 2025-08-13 | 29.38% | +1.15 | 0.996 | $122.58 |
| 2025-08-12 | 28.17% | +3.55 | 1.043 | $120.04 |
| 2025-08-11 | 30.32% | +5.24 | 0.987 | $118.37 |
| 2025-08-08 | 28.62% | +4.63 | 1.046 | $119.13 |
| 2025-08-07 | 29.15% | +2.98 | 1.042 | $119.30 |
| 2025-08-06 | 29.86% | +3.24 | 1.006 | $119.84 |
| 2025-08-05 | 29.41% | +4.18 | 1.013 | $122.07 |
| 2025-08-04 | 30.12% | +3.19 | 0.969 | $121.46 |
| 2025-08-01 | 30.27% | +5.13 | 0.969 | $119.60 |
| 2025-07-31 | 29.19% | +3.66 | 0.963 | $123.58 |
| 2025-07-30 | 30.57% | +2.31 | 0.929 | $124.40 |
| 2025-07-29 | 28.47% | +4.23 | 0.987 | $128.41 |
| 2025-07-28 | 28.05% | +4.32 | 0.994 | $127.69 |
| 2025-07-25 | 28.18% | +3.63 | 0.987 | $124.97 |
| 2025-07-24 | 33.26% | +1.92 | 0.872 | $124.32 |
| 2025-07-23 | 32.02% | +4.51 | 0.894 | $127.85 |
| 2025-07-22 | 31.75% | +3.59 | 0.888 | $126.16 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 337 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 337 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
8d (2026-11-20) · 15d (2026-11-27) · 22d (2026-12-04)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 8d | 15d | 22d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15Δ 看涨 | 41.05% | 39.47% | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 41.88% | 39.36% | — |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 41.78% | 40.39% | 40.19% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 42.67% | 39.70% | 39.95% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 43.25% | 39.96% | 40.22% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 43.51% | 40.83% | 40.50% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 43.83% | 41.19% | 40.65% |
| ATM | 43.90% | 41.09% | 40.70% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 43.99% | 41.15% | 40.54% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 43.96% | 41.41% | 40.66% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 43.76% | 41.76% | 41.09% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 43.48% | 41.53% | 41.57% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 43.34% | 41.46% | 43.06% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 43.63% | 42.12% | 43.17% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 43.83% | — | — |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 45.32% | — | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $262.40 | 43.90% | 43.34% | 41.78% | +1.56 | -1.34 | 16 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $262.60 | 41.09% | 41.46% | 40.39% | +1.07 | -0.17 | 13 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $263.05 | 40.70% | 43.06% | 40.19% | +2.88 | +0.93 | 10 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $263.46 | 41.05% | 42.22% | 39.72% | +2.50 | -0.09 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $263.06 | 41.35% | 42.21% | 40.11% | +2.10 | -0.19 | 12 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $263.77 | 40.67% | 42.95% | 39.03% | +3.92 | +0.31 | 14 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $264.84 | 39.06% | 41.02% | 38.46% | +2.56 | +0.68 | 14 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 | $265.30 | 40.60% | 42.40% | 39.68% | +2.72 | +0.45 | 18 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $265.23 | 40.79% | 42.82% | 40.17% | +2.66 | +0.70 | 20 |
| 2027-05-21 | 190 | $267.39 | 41.24% | 43.59% | 40.26% | +3.32 | +0.69 | 26 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $267.18 | 41.04% | 42.97% | 39.84% | +3.12 | +0.36 | 30 |
| 2027-08-20 | 281 | $269.01 | 41.00% | 42.74% | 40.05% | +2.69 | +0.39 | 26 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 | $269.04 | 40.57% | 42.76% | 39.71% | +3.05 | +0.67 | 26 |
| 2027-11-19 | 372 | $270.52 | 40.71% | 41.96% | 39.79% | +2.18 | +0.17 | 28 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
14 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $262.40 | 43.90% | $262.95 | 16 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $262.60 | 41.09% | $263.51 | 13 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $263.05 | 40.70% | $264.36 | 10 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $263.46 | 41.05% | $265.23 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $263.06 | 41.35% | $265.29 | 12 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $263.77 | 40.67% | $266.29 | 14 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $264.84 | 39.06% | $268.40 | 14 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 天 | $265.30 | 40.60% | $271.29 | 18 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $265.23 | 40.79% | $273.02 | 20 |
| 2027-05-21 | 190 天 | $267.39 | 41.24% | $279.49 | 26 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $267.18 | 41.04% | $280.90 | 30 |
| 2027-08-20 | 281 天 | $269.01 | 41.00% | $286.99 | 26 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 天 | $269.04 | 40.57% | $288.45 | 26 |
| 2027-11-19 | 372 天 | $270.52 | 40.71% | $294.36 | 28 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 41.10%
- 60 天
- 39.27%
- 90 天
- 40.32%
- 180 天
- 41.19%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 337 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 3 次
- 50% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 4.6%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 54.7%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-07 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2026-11-04 | 未说明时间 | 5.4% | -4.8% | 0.89× |
| 2026-10-28 | 开盘前 | 5.6% | +1.9% | 0.35× |
| 2026-08-05 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-04 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-29 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-25 | 开盘前 | 5.8% | +0.5% | 0.09× |
| 2025-04-25 | 未说明时间 | 3.8% | +127.9% | 33.56× |
| 2025-01-31 | 未说明时间 | 4.1% | +101.0% | 24.41× |
| 2024-10-29 | 未说明时间 | 2.8% | +92.2% | 33.37× |
| 2024-07-30 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-26 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-27 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。