股票 · 期权分析
QCOM 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $173.53
- 30D ATM IV
- 50.85%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 86
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +5.52
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.958
▲ +1.10 pts 较前一交易日
概览
QCOM 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 50.9%,相当于未来一个月约 ±14.6% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 86% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 5.52 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 4%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-03(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±8.2% 的波动,QCOM 实际平均波动 4.2%,6 次中有 5 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 50.85%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +5.52
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.57
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.958
对应 30 天内约 ±14.6% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.2%。
高于过去一年中 86% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 5.52 个点。
高于过去一年中 88% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.57 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 4%。
高于过去一年中 38% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 86%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 56%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 89%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 56%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $173.53
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $172.79
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 47.62%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 48.69%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 48.39%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 708,810
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.11
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 347 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 50.85% | +5.52 | 0.958 | $173.53 |
| 2026-11-09 | 49.75% | +6.22 | 0.977 | $171.47 |
| 2026-11-06 | 52.32% | +6.13 | 0.937 | $165.41 |
| 2026-11-05 | 57.58% | +5.66 | 0.891 | $156.75 |
| 2026-11-04 | 58.60% | +5.18 | 0.860 | $173.19 |
| 2026-11-03 | 59.37% | +7.16 | 0.870 | $164.43 |
| 2026-11-02 | 61.60% | +2.64 | 0.844 | $162.08 |
| 2026-10-30 | 59.62% | +3.76 | 0.855 | $164.79 |
| 2026-10-29 | 57.13% | +0.65 | 0.859 | $185.41 |
| 2026-10-28 | 55.03% | +1.36 | 0.879 | $182.97 |
| 2026-10-27 | 55.80% | +1.80 | 0.869 | $184.17 |
| 2026-10-26 | 55.56% | +1.30 | 0.870 | $179.60 |
| 2026-10-23 | 55.90% | +1.40 | 0.865 | $175.91 |
| 2026-10-22 | 57.56% | +0.64 | 0.855 | $172.83 |
| 2026-10-21 | 55.87% | +0.60 | 0.864 | $177.96 |
| 2026-10-20 | 55.53% | +0.69 | 0.870 | $175.71 |
| 2026-10-19 | 53.93% | +0.56 | 0.877 | $173.53 |
| 2026-10-16 | 54.78% | +1.05 | 0.863 | $172.11 |
| 2026-10-15 | 54.38% | +0.02 | 0.869 | $178.40 |
| 2026-10-14 | 53.15% | -1.36 | 0.879 | $172.62 |
| 2026-10-13 | 54.25% | +1.63 | 0.858 | $176.86 |
| 2026-10-09 | 51.93% | -1.98 | 0.897 | $175.50 |
| 2026-10-08 | 52.25% | -1.03 | 0.898 | $176.01 |
| 2026-10-07 | 52.21% | -3.08 | 0.896 | $177.12 |
| 2026-10-06 | 52.49% | -0.71 | 0.910 | $181.03 |
| 2026-10-05 | 51.21% | -2.62 | 0.933 | $180.79 |
| 2026-10-02 | 48.05% | -1.37 | 1.035 | $184.87 |
| 2026-10-01 | 48.20% | -1.94 | 1.032 | $182.09 |
| 2026-09-30 | 48.12% | -0.93 | 1.062 | $184.04 |
| 2026-09-29 | 47.96% | -1.15 | 1.060 | $184.10 |
| 2026-09-28 | 49.24% | -2.77 | 1.046 | $187.48 |
| 2026-09-25 | 48.82% | -1.87 | 1.076 | $201.97 |
| 2026-09-24 | 48.60% | -2.48 | 1.054 | $194.26 |
| 2026-09-23 | 51.04% | -2.94 | 1.042 | $197.24 |
| 2026-09-22 | 52.13% | -1.94 | 1.020 | $198.27 |
| 2026-09-21 | 52.33% | -3.05 | 1.031 | $194.23 |
| 2026-09-18 | 45.52% | -2.51 | 1.082 | $177.72 |
| 2026-09-17 | 46.28% | -1.96 | 1.049 | $188.71 |
| 2026-09-16 | 47.06% | -0.51 | 1.051 | $184.84 |
| 2026-09-15 | 48.94% | -1.52 | 1.050 | $187.80 |
| 2026-09-14 | 47.03% | -1.15 | 1.075 | $180.15 |
| 2026-09-11 | 44.79% | -2.25 | 1.110 | $181.97 |
| 2026-09-10 | 46.99% | -3.44 | 1.070 | $176.88 |
| 2026-09-09 | 45.53% | +0.73 | 1.059 | $176.40 |
| 2026-09-08 | 46.33% | -2.29 | 1.057 | $174.09 |
| 2026-09-04 | 40.77% | -1.40 | 1.121 | $168.74 |
| 2026-09-03 | 39.69% | -0.45 | 1.139 | $168.57 |
| 2026-09-02 | 41.53% | +1.37 | 1.081 | $169.96 |
| 2026-09-01 | 41.05% | -1.49 | 1.100 | $166.61 |
| 2026-08-31 | 41.32% | -0.18 | 1.102 | $170.48 |
| 2026-08-28 | 39.22% | -1.14 | 1.156 | $164.19 |
| 2026-08-26 | 41.89% | -2.64 | 1.111 | $163.72 |
| 2026-08-25 | 41.41% | -1.11 | 1.120 | $160.56 |
| 2026-08-24 | 42.08% | -1.29 | 1.075 | $158.53 |
| 2026-08-21 | 42.11% | -1.71 | 1.114 | $160.75 |
| 2026-08-20 | 42.15% | -0.59 | 1.115 | $160.74 |
| 2026-08-19 | 43.59% | -2.04 | 1.100 | $161.91 |
| 2026-08-18 | 43.03% | -1.57 | 1.113 | $160.19 |
| 2026-08-17 | 43.01% | -1.79 | 1.112 | $162.18 |
| 2025-10-22 | 42.06% | +4.78 | 0.810 | $169.27 |
| 2025-10-21 | 41.02% | +4.15 | 0.832 | $168.83 |
| 2025-10-20 | 40.66% | +2.00 | 0.848 | $167.04 |
| 2025-10-17 | 44.05% | +3.43 | 0.807 | $163.45 |
| 2025-10-16 | 46.25% | +3.82 | 0.787 | $164.08 |
| 2025-10-15 | 43.42% | +2.08 | 0.814 | $162.97 |
| 2025-10-14 | 43.56% | +2.29 | 0.813 | $161.74 |
| 2025-10-10 | 47.78% | +0.82 | 0.795 | $153.59 |
| 2025-10-09 | 41.32% | +1.02 | 0.830 | $165.66 |
| 2025-10-08 | 40.54% | +1.56 | 0.845 | $167.77 |
| 2025-10-07 | 40.13% | -0.44 | 0.852 | $165.46 |
| 2025-10-06 | 38.58% | +1.12 | 0.883 | $168.62 |
| 2025-10-03 | 32.52% | +1.03 | 1.013 | $169.18 |
| 2025-10-02 | 31.96% | +1.68 | 1.048 | $168.85 |
| 2025-10-01 | 30.40% | +1.90 | 1.099 | $166.49 |
| 2025-09-30 | 28.55% | +1.68 | 1.161 | $166.36 |
| 2025-09-29 | 29.62% | +0.77 | 1.118 | $165.30 |
| 2025-09-26 | 28.00% | +1.48 | 1.167 | $169.20 |
| 2025-09-25 | 29.66% | +1.44 | 1.130 | $169.68 |
| 2025-09-24 | 30.00% | +1.41 | 1.107 | $173.55 |
| 2025-09-23 | 30.29% | +0.03 | 1.076 | $169.53 |
| 2025-09-22 | 29.67% | +0.75 | 1.115 | $169.72 |
| 2025-09-19 | 28.46% | +1.37 | 1.149 | $166.85 |
| 2025-09-18 | 28.86% | +1.68 | 1.127 | $168.13 |
| 2025-09-17 | 29.77% | +1.31 | 1.101 | $165.26 |
| 2025-09-16 | 29.71% | +1.65 | 1.101 | $164.14 |
| 2025-09-15 | 28.53% | +1.61 | 1.127 | $161.22 |
| 2025-09-12 | 27.61% | +0.79 | 1.137 | $161.83 |
| 2025-09-11 | 26.48% | +2.74 | 1.193 | $161.51 |
| 2025-09-10 | 27.58% | +2.81 | 1.144 | $158.95 |
| 2025-09-09 | 25.76% | +4.18 | 1.220 | $158.66 |
| 2025-09-08 | 26.81% | +2.99 | 1.164 | $160.24 |
| 2025-09-05 | 26.71% | +2.51 | 1.157 | $159.84 |
| 2025-09-04 | 26.86% | +4.66 | 1.146 | $159.71 |
| 2025-09-03 | 25.61% | +3.86 | 1.224 | $157.28 |
| 2025-09-02 | 28.66% | +5.95 | 1.102 | $158.78 |
| 2025-08-29 | 25.91% | +3.80 | 1.176 | $160.73 |
| 2025-08-28 | 25.24% | +2.61 | 1.193 | $160.80 |
| 2025-08-27 | 25.89% | +2.64 | 1.192 | $159.77 |
| 2025-08-26 | 26.77% | +2.93 | 1.160 | $159.17 |
| 2025-08-25 | 27.44% | +1.11 | 1.141 | $156.42 |
| 2025-08-22 | 25.66% | +1.87 | 1.204 | $158.01 |
| 2025-08-21 | 27.75% | +3.71 | 1.140 | $154.13 |
| 2025-08-20 | 27.05% | +3.49 | 1.143 | $155.44 |
| 2025-08-19 | 27.35% | +3.41 | 1.144 | $156.25 |
| 2025-08-18 | 26.44% | +2.20 | 1.149 | $158.90 |
| 2025-08-15 | 26.03% | +2.17 | 1.148 | $157.85 |
| 2025-08-14 | 26.94% | +2.31 | 1.123 | $158.09 |
| 2025-08-13 | 26.28% | +2.17 | 1.131 | $156.59 |
| 2025-08-12 | 25.27% | +1.52 | 1.145 | $153.73 |
| 2025-08-11 | 25.99% | +1.74 | 1.122 | $147.97 |
| 2025-08-08 | 25.88% | +2.32 | 1.119 | $147.56 |
| 2025-08-07 | 27.02% | +3.55 | 1.074 | $145.90 |
| 2025-08-06 | 27.92% | +2.31 | 1.041 | $145.84 |
| 2025-08-05 | 25.69% | +3.91 | 1.140 | $146.71 |
| 2025-08-04 | 26.65% | +3.66 | 1.087 | $147.51 |
| 2025-08-01 | 27.29% | +2.99 | 1.110 | $148.19 |
| 2025-07-31 | 30.15% | +3.23 | 1.006 | $146.76 |
| 2025-07-30 | 37.10% | +2.85 | 0.884 | $159.06 |
| 2025-07-29 | 38.62% | +2.33 | 0.867 | $162.08 |
| 2025-07-28 | 37.45% | +3.41 | 0.874 | $161.05 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 347 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 347 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 63.82% | 56.59% | 51.13% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 61.87% | 54.88% | 49.72% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 61.32% | 54.51% | 49.19% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 61.23% | 54.29% | 49.32% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 61.14% | 54.51% | 49.41% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 60.88% | 54.73% | 50.01% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 60.82% | 54.98% | 50.44% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 61.25% | 55.38% | 50.89% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 61.59% | 55.62% | 51.12% |
| ATM | 61.75% | 55.95% | 51.15% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 62.02% | 56.54% | 51.84% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 62.72% | 57.05% | 52.39% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 63.41% | 57.40% | 52.67% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 63.95% | 57.81% | 53.34% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 64.62% | 58.46% | 53.85% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 65.51% | 59.70% | 54.85% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 67.06% | 61.29% | 56.15% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 68.65% | 63.48% | 58.17% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 70.94% | 68.52% | 62.33% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $173.10 | 61.75% | 64.62% | 61.14% | +3.48 | +1.12 | 20 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $173.28 | 55.95% | 58.46% | 54.51% | +3.95 | +0.53 | 29 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $173.50 | 51.15% | 53.85% | 49.41% | +4.44 | +0.49 | 23 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $173.35 | 51.72% | 54.41% | 48.76% | +5.65 | -0.13 | 18 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $172.69 | 50.74% | 52.86% | 47.36% | +5.50 | -0.63 | 16 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $173.02 | 49.94% | 52.65% | 47.90% | +4.74 | +0.34 | 26 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $172.61 | 50.04% | 53.58% | 46.11% | +7.46 | -0.20 | 18 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $173.54 | 46.99% | 49.45% | 46.24% | +3.21 | +0.86 | 29 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $174.54 | 49.19% | 51.81% | 47.97% | +3.84 | +0.70 | 29 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $174.64 | 48.60% | 51.39% | 47.76% | +3.63 | +0.97 | 34 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $174.72 | 47.83% | 49.98% | 46.55% | +3.43 | +0.44 | 33 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $175.41 | 49.07% | 51.19% | 48.01% | +3.18 | +0.54 | 43 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $176.17 | 49.51% | 50.55% | 47.53% | +3.03 | -0.47 | 34 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $173.10 | 61.75% | $173.37 | 20 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $173.28 | 55.95% | $174.02 | 29 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $173.50 | 51.15% | $174.56 | 23 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $173.35 | 51.72% | $174.88 | 18 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $172.69 | 50.74% | $174.59 | 16 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $173.02 | 49.94% | $175.28 | 26 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $172.61 | 50.04% | $175.24 | 18 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $173.54 | 46.99% | $177.04 | 29 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $174.54 | 49.19% | $180.49 | 29 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $174.64 | 48.60% | $182.09 | 34 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $174.72 | 47.83% | $183.53 | 33 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $175.41 | 49.07% | $188.55 | 43 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $176.17 | 49.51% | $195.56 | 34 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 50.85%
- 60 天
- 47.62%
- 90 天
- 48.69%
- 180 天
- 48.39%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 347 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 5 次
- 83% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 8.2%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 4.2%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 收盘后 | 10.6% | -9.5% | 0.89× |
| 2026-10-28 | 未说明时间 | 4.0% | +1.3% | 0.34× |
| 2026-07-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-30 | 收盘后 | 7.3% | +2.0% | 0.27× |
| 2025-04-30 | 收盘后 | 8.4% | -8.9% | 1.06× |
| 2025-02-05 | 收盘后 | 8.9% | -3.7% | 0.42× |
| 2024-11-06 | 收盘后 | 10.0% | -0.0% | 0.00× |
| 2024-07-31 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-31 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。