股票 · 期权分析
RBLX 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $51.42
- 30D ATM IV
- 60.56%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 58
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- -2.15
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.046
▼ -1.50 pts 较前一交易日
概览
RBLX 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 60.6%,相当于未来一个月约 ±17.4% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 58% 的读数。
它的 25-delta call 比 put 的隐含波动率高 2.15 个波动率点,比过去一年中 95% 的交易日都更接近。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-28(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±16.5% 的波动,RBLX 实际平均波动 12.4%,5 次中有 3 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 60.56%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- -2.15
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.22
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.046
对应 30 天内约 ±17.4% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.8%。
高于过去一年中 58% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，call 比 put的隐含波动率高 2.15 个点。
高于过去一年中 5% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.22 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 5%。
高于过去一年中 45% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 58%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 44%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 62%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 48%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $51.42
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $51.72
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 59.02%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 63.35%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 64.16%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 204,532
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.85
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 337 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 60.56% | -2.15 | 1.046 | $51.42 |
| 2026-11-10 | 62.06% | +3.70 | 1.022 | $51.19 |
| 2026-11-09 | 59.87% | +0.43 | 1.048 | $51.60 |
| 2026-11-06 | 61.71% | +0.01 | 1.015 | $49.30 |
| 2026-11-05 | 63.80% | -1.88 | 1.010 | $47.65 |
| 2026-11-04 | 60.14% | -3.14 | 1.011 | $49.31 |
| 2026-11-03 | 64.53% | -1.17 | 0.995 | $45.45 |
| 2026-11-02 | 65.17% | +2.29 | 0.995 | $42.88 |
| 2026-10-30 | 63.87% | +1.79 | 0.959 | $42.99 |
| 2026-10-29 | 86.95% | +3.59 | 0.800 | $52.46 |
| 2026-10-28 | 85.54% | -2.62 | 0.766 | $53.28 |
| 2026-10-27 | 81.64% | +2.19 | 0.795 | $54.47 |
| 2026-10-26 | 80.03% | +3.63 | 0.839 | $54.37 |
| 2026-10-23 | 80.93% | +0.34 | 0.792 | $52.89 |
| 2026-10-22 | 79.35% | +0.59 | 0.800 | $53.96 |
| 2026-10-21 | 77.15% | -0.76 | 0.818 | $52.55 |
| 2026-10-20 | 78.75% | +1.90 | 0.805 | $52.35 |
| 2026-10-19 | 80.23% | +2.48 | 0.788 | $50.75 |
| 2026-10-16 | 87.78% | -5.03 | 0.763 | $49.55 |
| 2026-10-15 | 85.04% | +0.54 | 0.783 | $51.13 |
| 2026-10-14 | 86.81% | -1.55 | 0.768 | $47.54 |
| 2026-10-13 | 79.99% | +2.92 | 0.818 | $49.51 |
| 2026-10-09 | 83.75% | +1.64 | 0.793 | $48.09 |
| 2026-10-08 | 82.52% | +4.36 | 0.829 | $45.52 |
| 2026-10-07 | 83.62% | +3.65 | 0.817 | $46.41 |
| 2026-10-06 | 81.22% | +3.25 | 0.836 | $45.56 |
| 2026-10-05 | 80.75% | -0.75 | 0.847 | $44.58 |
| 2026-10-02 | 80.31% | +4.50 | 0.848 | $44.12 |
| 2026-10-01 | 77.98% | -2.63 | 0.888 | $43.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | 74.89% | +0.94 | 0.918 | $42.37 |
| 2026-09-29 | 71.88% | -0.91 | 0.968 | $41.18 |
| 2026-09-28 | 70.52% | -3.09 | 0.986 | $41.86 |
| 2026-09-25 | 60.52% | -2.55 | 1.115 | $46.44 |
| 2026-09-24 | 62.01% | +0.30 | 1.106 | $48.83 |
| 2026-09-23 | 58.73% | -2.06 | 1.135 | $48.99 |
| 2026-09-22 | 57.43% | -1.70 | 1.145 | $49.87 |
| 2026-09-21 | 57.98% | +0.15 | 1.151 | $51.25 |
| 2026-09-18 | 56.03% | -1.03 | 1.201 | $47.82 |
| 2026-09-17 | 56.47% | -0.36 | 1.155 | $47.50 |
| 2026-09-16 | 55.64% | -1.14 | 1.180 | $47.43 |
| 2026-09-15 | 58.08% | -0.98 | 1.144 | $50.24 |
| 2026-09-14 | 59.90% | -1.59 | 1.130 | $51.29 |
| 2026-09-11 | 57.06% | +0.50 | 1.151 | $45.50 |
| 2026-09-10 | 59.99% | -1.26 | 1.165 | $44.88 |
| 2026-09-09 | 68.51% | +0.00 | 1.009 | $44.52 |
| 2026-09-08 | 72.23% | -2.72 | 1.003 | $44.82 |
| 2026-09-04 | 59.26% | +1.44 | 1.172 | $43.31 |
| 2026-09-03 | 58.02% | +2.09 | 1.174 | $41.51 |
| 2026-09-02 | 57.67% | -1.70 | 1.200 | $41.21 |
| 2026-09-01 | 60.61% | -1.17 | 1.146 | $40.67 |
| 2026-08-31 | 60.53% | -0.76 | 1.161 | $41.29 |
| 2026-08-28 | 58.85% | -6.90 | 1.156 | $38.53 |
| 2026-08-27 | 57.62% | +1.57 | 1.172 | $38.15 |
| 2026-08-26 | 57.35% | -1.36 | 1.217 | $37.56 |
| 2026-08-25 | 59.35% | -1.35 | 1.115 | $39.12 |
| 2025-10-22 | 82.57% | +4.13 | 0.754 | $128.00 |
| 2025-10-21 | 79.97% | +1.93 | 0.753 | $133.16 |
| 2025-10-20 | 77.39% | +4.02 | 0.788 | $134.84 |
| 2025-10-17 | 78.26% | +1.77 | 0.782 | $132.92 |
| 2025-10-16 | 80.67% | +9.93 | 0.782 | $134.49 |
| 2025-10-15 | 79.20% | +0.11 | 0.786 | $138.56 |
| 2025-10-14 | 80.03% | +5.65 | 0.793 | $133.28 |
| 2025-10-10 | 80.33% | +3.39 | 0.772 | $126.80 |
| 2025-10-09 | 75.23% | +2.97 | 0.788 | $126.43 |
| 2025-10-08 | 76.68% | +5.55 | 0.789 | $125.97 |
| 2025-10-07 | 73.52% | +3.73 | 0.840 | $124.99 |
| 2025-10-06 | 78.13% | +2.89 | 0.781 | $126.27 |
| 2025-10-03 | 72.74% | +3.39 | 0.847 | $122.69 |
| 2025-10-02 | 76.91% | +1.20 | 0.788 | $133.50 |
| 2025-10-01 | 62.74% | +6.94 | 0.990 | $134.07 |
| 2025-09-30 | 70.21% | +4.29 | 0.879 | $138.52 |
| 2025-09-29 | 70.03% | +4.00 | 0.879 | $141.56 |
| 2025-09-26 | 58.61% | +7.88 | 1.041 | $135.06 |
| 2025-09-25 | 53.85% | +3.26 | 1.155 | $132.04 |
| 2025-09-24 | 54.88% | +2.02 | 1.118 | $133.13 |
| 2025-09-23 | 56.51% | -1.24 | 1.116 | $132.22 |
| 2025-09-22 | 53.12% | +3.19 | 1.179 | $136.84 |
| 2025-09-19 | 50.58% | +2.26 | 1.185 | $135.18 |
| 2025-09-18 | 49.83% | +2.42 | 1.196 | $135.54 |
| 2025-09-17 | 49.57% | +2.65 | 1.205 | $135.38 |
| 2025-09-16 | 50.44% | +2.60 | 1.179 | $135.84 |
| 2025-09-15 | 50.17% | +2.28 | 1.205 | $137.25 |
| 2025-09-12 | 49.37% | +1.39 | 1.185 | $133.31 |
| 2025-09-11 | 50.93% | -0.27 | 1.154 | $132.96 |
| 2025-09-10 | 48.41% | +1.96 | 1.221 | $132.84 |
| 2025-09-09 | 47.74% | +2.35 | 1.238 | $131.79 |
| 2025-09-08 | 47.80% | +2.51 | 1.238 | $128.47 |
| 2025-09-05 | 47.81% | +2.72 | 1.258 | $127.69 |
| 2025-09-04 | 49.38% | +1.88 | 1.204 | $129.79 |
| 2025-09-03 | 49.10% | +2.85 | 1.218 | $133.46 |
| 2025-09-02 | 51.09% | +4.29 | 1.182 | $128.47 |
| 2025-08-29 | 47.69% | +3.22 | 1.243 | $124.59 |
| 2025-08-28 | 46.97% | +1.38 | 1.254 | $126.88 |
| 2025-08-27 | 49.12% | +1.81 | 1.189 | $122.70 |
| 2025-08-26 | 47.37% | +3.06 | 1.251 | $124.76 |
| 2025-08-25 | 48.40% | +3.24 | 1.219 | $124.81 |
| 2025-08-22 | 47.15% | +5.71 | 1.248 | $117.52 |
| 2025-08-21 | 51.62% | +4.55 | 1.158 | $114.85 |
| 2025-08-20 | 50.16% | +5.00 | 1.170 | $118.49 |
| 2025-08-19 | 51.47% | +6.85 | 1.163 | $118.28 |
| 2025-08-18 | 51.60% | +5.43 | 1.161 | $119.95 |
| 2025-08-15 | 51.33% | +5.68 | 1.126 | $117.34 |
| 2025-08-14 | 45.88% | +2.76 | 1.188 | $125.28 |
| 2025-08-13 | 44.47% | +3.04 | 1.247 | $126.78 |
| 2025-08-12 | 44.42% | +2.09 | 1.213 | $129.53 |
| 2025-08-11 | 46.52% | +2.81 | 1.167 | $130.74 |
| 2025-08-08 | 45.64% | +2.12 | 1.161 | $128.71 |
| 2025-08-07 | 45.66% | +3.79 | 1.172 | $129.63 |
| 2025-08-06 | 45.97% | +2.08 | 1.154 | $134.14 |
| 2025-08-05 | 46.58% | +2.04 | 1.123 | $127.11 |
| 2025-08-04 | 47.82% | +4.92 | 1.081 | $130.70 |
| 2025-08-01 | 48.18% | +3.40 | 1.084 | $125.03 |
| 2025-07-31 | 44.59% | +3.29 | 1.096 | $137.79 |
| 2025-07-30 | 74.60% | +6.96 | 0.768 | $124.94 |
| 2025-07-29 | 70.08% | +0.79 | 0.812 | $118.33 |
| 2025-07-28 | 69.35% | -0.73 | 0.822 | $120.96 |
| 2025-07-25 | 69.56% | +3.66 | 0.803 | $118.82 |
| 2025-07-24 | 68.74% | +2.02 | 0.830 | $118.12 |
| 2025-07-23 | 75.91% | +2.32 | 0.758 | $118.63 |
| 2025-07-22 | 70.95% | +3.94 | 0.813 | $120.20 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 337 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 337 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-13) · 8d (2026-11-20) · 15d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 8d | 15d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 73.53% | — | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 73.57% | 64.04% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 73.54% | 61.99% | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 73.40% | 61.08% | 59.83% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 73.24% | 60.84% | 58.66% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 72.91% | 61.07% | 59.24% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 72.53% | 61.54% | 58.69% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 72.29% | 62.14% | 58.18% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 72.69% | 62.71% | 58.25% |
| ATM | 74.80% | 62.93% | 58.07% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 77.69% | 62.03% | 59.43% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 79.73% | 61.89% | 59.78% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 79.71% | 62.57% | 59.42% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 79.14% | 65.93% | 59.40% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 78.24% | 66.08% | 59.88% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 77.13% | 66.81% | 57.36% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 75.96% | 66.75% | 59.10% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 75.15% | 67.30% | 60.50% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 79.77% | 67.40% | 61.05% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 | $51.57 | 74.80% | 78.24% | 73.24% | +5.00 | +0.94 | 9 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $51.66 | 62.93% | 66.08% | 60.84% | +5.24 | +0.53 | 23 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $51.61 | 58.07% | 59.88% | 58.66% | +1.22 | +1.20 | 19 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $51.67 | 59.57% | 62.17% | 59.94% | +2.23 | +1.48 | 19 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $51.70 | 60.66% | 59.39% | 62.36% | -2.97 | +0.22 | 21 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $51.82 | 60.06% | 61.18% | 59.32% | +1.86 | +0.19 | 14 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $51.89 | 59.63% | 62.41% | 60.25% | +2.16 | +1.70 | 16 |
| 2026-12-31 | 49 | $52.42 | 62.40% | 61.06% | 55.35% | +5.71 | -4.20 | 8 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $51.97 | 58.05% | 58.03% | 56.86% | +1.17 | -0.60 | 17 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 | $52.43 | 64.48% | 67.33% | 64.82% | +2.51 | +1.60 | 12 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $52.44 | 64.08% | 64.72% | 63.64% | +1.08 | +0.10 | 16 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 | $52.84 | 63.47% | 63.65% | 62.04% | +1.61 | -0.62 | 12 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $53.18 | 64.88% | 65.33% | 63.60% | +1.72 | -0.42 | 17 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 天 | $51.57 | 74.80% | $51.61 | 9 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $51.66 | 62.93% | $51.88 | 23 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $51.61 | 58.07% | $51.97 | 19 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $51.67 | 59.57% | $52.23 | 19 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $51.70 | 60.66% | $52.46 | 21 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $51.82 | 60.06% | $52.75 | 14 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $51.89 | 59.63% | $52.96 | 16 |
| 2026-12-31 | 49 天 | $52.42 | 62.40% | $53.81 | 8 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $51.97 | 58.05% | $53.53 | 17 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 天 | $52.43 | 64.48% | $55.47 | 12 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $52.44 | 64.08% | $56.32 | 16 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 天 | $52.84 | 63.47% | $57.55 | 12 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $53.18 | 64.88% | $60.27 | 17 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 60.56%
- 60 天
- 59.02%
- 90 天
- 63.35%
- 180 天
- 64.16%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 337 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 3 次
- 60% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 16.5%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 12.4%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 收盘后 | 18.0% | -18.1% | 1.00× |
| 2026-07-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-31 | 开盘前 | 16.1% | +10.3% | 0.64× |
| 2025-05-01 | 开盘前 | 15.4% | +2.9% | 0.19× |
| 2025-02-06 | 开盘前 | 17.1% | -11.1% | 0.65× |
| 2024-10-31 | 开盘前 | 15.8% | +19.9% | 1.26× |
| 2024-08-01 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-09 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-07 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-08 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。