股票 · 期权分析
RDDT 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $99.55
- 30D ATM IV
- 62.38%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 17
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +2.79
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.068
▲ +0.73 pts 较前一交易日
概览
RDDT 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 62.4%,相当于未来一个月约 ±17.9% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 17% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 2.79 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
较长期限的期权波动率更高:90 天波动率比 30 天高 7%。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-28(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±17.8% 的波动,RDDT 实际平均波动 38.2%,5 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 62.38%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +2.79
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.78
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.068
对应 30 天内约 ±17.9% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.9%。
高于过去一年中 17% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 2.79 个点。
高于过去一年中 75% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.78 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 7%。
高于过去一年中 64% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 17%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 12%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 23%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 17%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $99.55
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $100.08
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 61.47%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 66.62%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 67.40%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 294,267
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.32
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 337 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 62.38% | +2.79 | 1.068 | $99.55 |
| 2026-11-10 | 61.65% | +6.37 | 1.068 | $98.67 |
| 2026-11-09 | 58.47% | +5.81 | 1.081 | $100.79 |
| 2026-11-06 | 59.59% | +6.31 | 1.066 | $95.10 |
| 2026-11-05 | 67.71% | +2.33 | 0.970 | $93.81 |
| 2026-11-04 | 58.49% | +1.73 | 1.053 | $101.89 |
| 2026-11-03 | 62.00% | +3.90 | 1.019 | $96.15 |
| 2026-11-02 | 65.17% | +1.53 | 0.991 | $90.97 |
| 2026-10-30 | 64.99% | +1.62 | 0.989 | $91.73 |
| 2026-10-29 | 77.21% | +0.71 | 0.894 | $129.60 |
| 2026-10-28 | 79.69% | +1.53 | 0.860 | $134.70 |
| 2026-10-27 | 78.99% | +1.01 | 0.867 | $136.46 |
| 2026-10-26 | 78.20% | -0.49 | 0.857 | $138.45 |
| 2026-10-23 | 80.47% | -0.83 | 0.820 | $144.25 |
| 2026-10-22 | 82.36% | +0.32 | 0.833 | $150.26 |
| 2026-10-21 | 80.85% | -0.12 | 0.833 | $153.28 |
| 2026-10-20 | 80.71% | +0.90 | 0.827 | $155.65 |
| 2026-10-19 | 80.79% | +0.17 | 0.813 | $155.14 |
| 2026-10-16 | 84.69% | -0.21 | 0.800 | $156.14 |
| 2026-10-15 | 81.48% | +3.66 | 0.817 | $159.36 |
| 2026-10-14 | 79.11% | +3.39 | 0.836 | $148.60 |
| 2026-10-13 | 79.49% | -1.95 | 0.819 | $155.29 |
| 2026-10-09 | 74.35% | -0.43 | 0.859 | $159.91 |
| 2026-10-08 | 74.03% | +2.03 | 0.871 | $156.47 |
| 2026-10-07 | 74.04% | -0.05 | 0.860 | $152.71 |
| 2026-10-06 | 72.92% | -1.76 | 0.867 | $148.95 |
| 2026-10-05 | 73.04% | -1.19 | 0.870 | $150.42 |
| 2026-10-02 | 72.04% | -1.61 | 0.895 | $147.86 |
| 2026-10-01 | 73.06% | -0.92 | 0.894 | $149.53 |
| 2026-09-30 | 70.27% | -1.88 | 0.914 | $142.44 |
| 2026-09-29 | 68.32% | -0.30 | 0.932 | $145.36 |
| 2026-09-28 | 66.21% | -1.68 | 0.978 | $143.08 |
| 2026-09-25 | 60.22% | -1.33 | 1.071 | $149.84 |
| 2026-09-24 | 59.76% | -2.03 | 1.086 | $152.72 |
| 2026-09-23 | 58.11% | -2.17 | 1.111 | $151.98 |
| 2026-09-22 | 58.45% | -1.78 | 1.101 | $155.67 |
| 2026-09-21 | 60.10% | -1.68 | 1.079 | $158.73 |
| 2026-09-18 | 56.16% | -2.03 | 1.148 | $150.85 |
| 2026-09-17 | 55.53% | -1.38 | 1.141 | $152.83 |
| 2026-09-16 | 58.59% | +0.02 | 1.114 | $157.60 |
| 2026-09-15 | 59.90% | -0.52 | 1.115 | $159.63 |
| 2026-09-14 | 58.07% | -0.71 | 1.153 | $162.38 |
| 2026-09-11 | 56.00% | -0.56 | 1.185 | $157.77 |
| 2026-09-10 | 62.40% | +0.91 | 1.087 | $155.34 |
| 2026-09-09 | 60.97% | -1.91 | 1.106 | $146.44 |
| 2026-09-08 | 61.05% | -4.50 | 1.090 | $149.38 |
| 2026-09-04 | 57.62% | -3.43 | 1.148 | $154.46 |
| 2026-09-03 | 57.32% | -0.37 | 1.106 | $155.99 |
| 2026-09-02 | 57.02% | +0.87 | 1.123 | $158.10 |
| 2026-09-01 | 53.28% | -0.80 | 1.172 | $144.64 |
| 2026-08-31 | 53.97% | -0.01 | 1.199 | $147.81 |
| 2026-08-28 | 54.29% | -2.37 | 1.164 | $153.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | 56.07% | -1.52 | 1.175 | $153.95 |
| 2026-08-26 | 56.15% | -1.56 | 1.144 | $155.36 |
| 2026-08-25 | 55.73% | +1.17 | 1.189 | $162.45 |
| 2025-10-22 | 98.31% | -0.14 | 0.794 | $197.05 |
| 2025-10-21 | 94.94% | +1.38 | 0.800 | $205.71 |
| 2025-10-20 | 96.91% | -2.41 | 0.806 | $202.48 |
| 2025-10-17 | 94.99% | +1.33 | 0.796 | $194.95 |
| 2025-10-16 | 94.94% | -0.16 | 0.825 | $198.97 |
| 2025-10-15 | 93.59% | +0.33 | 0.813 | $200.76 |
| 2025-10-14 | 94.96% | -1.74 | 0.807 | $196.35 |
| 2025-10-10 | 96.75% | -0.77 | 0.824 | $198.55 |
| 2025-10-09 | 95.99% | -0.16 | 0.807 | $211.70 |
| 2025-10-08 | 101.50% | -4.29 | 0.783 | $202.29 |
| 2025-10-07 | 92.76% | -0.49 | 0.842 | $205.92 |
| 2025-10-06 | 91.64% | -1.96 | 0.853 | $203.63 |
| 2025-10-03 | 87.05% | +0.07 | 0.882 | $207.20 |
| 2025-10-02 | 84.98% | +0.21 | 0.909 | $200.92 |
| 2025-10-01 | 88.05% | -3.20 | 0.899 | $202.60 |
| 2025-09-30 | 82.24% | -0.70 | 0.926 | $229.99 |
| 2025-09-29 | 78.33% | +3.14 | 0.980 | $241.98 |
| 2025-09-26 | 70.49% | +1.69 | 1.069 | $240.11 |
| 2025-09-25 | 73.26% | +1.45 | 1.045 | $232.75 |
| 2025-09-24 | 71.91% | +1.96 | 1.085 | $235.69 |
| 2025-09-23 | 73.49% | -0.75 | 1.051 | $237.45 |
| 2025-09-22 | 71.91% | +0.23 | 1.082 | $257.56 |
| 2025-09-19 | 67.83% | -1.79 | 1.125 | $264.48 |
| 2025-09-18 | 68.51% | -1.68 | 1.106 | $270.71 |
| 2025-09-17 | 67.92% | -2.15 | 1.097 | $266.47 |
| 2025-09-16 | 66.95% | -1.40 | 1.108 | $266.66 |
| 2025-09-15 | 68.33% | -1.44 | — | $263.64 |
| 2025-09-12 | 64.19% | +0.56 | — | $254.29 |
| 2025-09-11 | 62.69% | +3.66 | — | $260.54 |
| 2025-09-10 | 67.84% | +2.15 | — | $259.03 |
| 2025-09-09 | 63.21% | +5.54 | 1.119 | $240.20 |
| 2025-09-08 | 63.13% | +2.77 | 1.112 | $229.98 |
| 2025-09-05 | 63.01% | +1.22 | 1.108 | $240.00 |
| 2025-09-04 | 61.91% | +3.39 | 1.116 | $232.11 |
| 2025-09-03 | 64.38% | +1.47 | 1.091 | $223.14 |
| 2025-09-02 | 63.91% | +5.81 | 1.097 | $220.06 |
| 2025-08-29 | 61.46% | +1.99 | 1.135 | $225.08 |
| 2025-08-28 | 61.31% | +3.49 | 1.129 | $225.54 |
| 2025-08-27 | 64.22% | +1.51 | 1.076 | $211.10 |
| 2025-08-26 | 62.61% | +2.10 | 1.097 | $219.43 |
| 2025-08-25 | 64.05% | +0.26 | 1.088 | $219.73 |
| 2025-08-22 | 61.85% | +2.46 | 1.122 | $217.31 |
| 2025-08-21 | 65.00% | +2.44 | 1.087 | $218.65 |
| 2025-08-20 | 65.93% | +3.38 | 1.057 | $218.37 |
| 2025-08-19 | 64.90% | +2.99 | 1.048 | $228.18 |
| 2025-08-18 | 62.82% | +0.16 | 1.085 | $241.76 |
| 2025-08-15 | 61.75% | +1.40 | 1.101 | $246.50 |
| 2025-08-14 | 62.86% | -1.18 | 1.080 | $243.47 |
| 2025-08-13 | 61.06% | +1.62 | 1.090 | $234.77 |
| 2025-08-12 | 58.75% | +0.87 | 1.129 | $224.02 |
| 2025-08-11 | 61.04% | +0.22 | 1.086 | $220.75 |
| 2025-08-08 | 60.45% | +1.84 | 1.079 | $215.44 |
| 2025-08-07 | 62.31% | +0.60 | 1.067 | $211.82 |
| 2025-08-06 | 63.46% | +1.73 | 1.033 | $212.81 |
| 2025-08-05 | 62.58% | -1.77 | 1.053 | $199.09 |
| 2025-08-04 | 62.09% | +2.33 | 1.046 | $201.76 |
| 2025-08-01 | 64.38% | +3.04 | 1.026 | $188.64 |
| 2025-07-31 | 89.66% | +3.74 | 0.800 | $160.59 |
| 2025-07-30 | 80.08% | +3.30 | 0.884 | $149.33 |
| 2025-07-29 | 83.49% | -0.42 | 0.852 | $144.85 |
| 2025-07-28 | 83.88% | -3.80 | 0.831 | $151.60 |
| 2025-07-25 | 78.55% | +0.70 | 0.895 | $149.66 |
| 2025-07-24 | 86.71% | -5.40 | 0.825 | $148.13 |
| 2025-07-23 | 86.80% | +0.99 | 0.825 | $146.10 |
| 2025-07-22 | 87.34% | -5.66 | 0.820 | $145.80 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 337 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 337 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-13) · 8d (2026-11-20) · 15d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 8d | 15d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 79.66% | 69.04% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 76.87% | 66.94% | 61.66% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 77.64% | 66.03% | 60.31% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 74.44% | 65.49% | 60.57% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 74.36% | 65.89% | 60.48% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 75.80% | 65.73% | 61.11% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 75.49% | 66.14% | 61.30% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 75.03% | 66.75% | 61.30% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 74.73% | 66.25% | 61.04% |
| ATM | 74.61% | 65.97% | 61.94% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 74.73% | 66.91% | 61.93% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 74.83% | 67.87% | 62.06% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 74.80% | 67.71% | 62.40% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 74.79% | 68.96% | 62.56% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 74.98% | 67.70% | 63.01% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 75.84% | 69.29% | 62.39% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 78.02% | 69.71% | 63.94% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 79.18% | 70.27% | 64.89% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 82.34% | 74.57% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 | $99.87 | 74.61% | 74.98% | 74.36% | +0.63 | +0.06 | 18 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $99.90 | 65.97% | 67.70% | 65.89% | +1.81 | +0.82 | 32 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $99.75 | 61.94% | 63.01% | 60.48% | +2.53 | -0.19 | 39 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $99.92 | 61.61% | 62.69% | 60.68% | +2.01 | +0.08 | 41 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $100.05 | 62.51% | 64.57% | 61.84% | +2.73 | +0.70 | 42 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $100.28 | 61.75% | 64.50% | 61.40% | +3.10 | +1.21 | 19 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $100.20 | 61.23% | 63.23% | 60.31% | +2.93 | +0.55 | 41 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $100.35 | 61.51% | 62.84% | 60.60% | +2.25 | +0.21 | 30 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 | $100.99 | 67.71% | 69.87% | 66.51% | +3.36 | +0.48 | 31 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $101.55 | 66.85% | 70.01% | 65.47% | +4.54 | +0.89 | 34 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 | $101.66 | 66.75% | 69.30% | 65.26% | +4.04 | +0.53 | 36 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $102.39 | 68.07% | 70.38% | 66.45% | +3.93 | +0.34 | 42 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 | $103.42 | 67.83% | 70.00% | 66.71% | +3.29 | +0.53 | 37 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 天 | $99.87 | 74.61% | $99.95 | 18 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $99.90 | 65.97% | $100.38 | 32 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $99.75 | 61.94% | $100.54 | 39 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $99.92 | 61.61% | $101.07 | 41 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $100.05 | 62.51% | $101.62 | 42 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $100.28 | 61.75% | $102.18 | 19 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $100.20 | 61.23% | $102.39 | 41 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $100.35 | 61.51% | $103.74 | 30 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 天 | $100.99 | 67.71% | $107.46 | 31 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $101.55 | 66.85% | $109.76 | 34 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 天 | $101.66 | 66.75% | $111.74 | 36 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $102.39 | 68.07% | $117.51 | 42 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 天 | $103.42 | 67.83% | $125.65 | 37 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 62.38%
- 60 天
- 61.47%
- 90 天
- 66.62%
- 180 天
- 67.40%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 337 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 1 次
- 20% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 17.8%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 38.2%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 收盘后 | 16.2% | -29.2% | 1.81× |
| 2026-07-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-31 | 收盘后 | 17.8% | +1.2% | 0.07× |
| 2025-05-01 | 收盘后 | 17.3% | +36.8% | 2.12× |
| 2025-02-12 | 收盘后 | 19.0% | -25.0% | 1.31× |
| 2024-10-29 | 收盘后 | 18.9% | +98.7% | 5.24× |
| 2024-08-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。