股票 · 期权分析
RH 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $134.82
- 30D ATM IV
- —
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- —
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- —
- 期限斜率 90/30
- —
本交易日无法计算任何指标
概览
它的下一次财报在 2026-12-10(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 4 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±18.3% 的波动,RH 实际平均波动 47.3%,4 次中有 0 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- —
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- —
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- —
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- —
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 249 个交易日(一年窗口)
这个窗口内的历史不足,无法定位当前读数。
- IV 百分位,1 年
- —
- IV 排名,1 年
- —
- IV 百分位,2 年
- —
- IV 排名,2 年
- —
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $134.82
- 30 天隐含远期价
- —
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 71.91%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 68.58%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 66.06%
- 使用的到期日数
- 8
- 总未平仓量
- 31,360
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.44
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 301 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | — | — | — | $134.82 |
| 2026-11-09 | 72.30% | +3.27 | 0.928 | $136.61 |
| 2026-11-06 | 77.74% | -1.85 | 0.868 | $130.96 |
| 2026-11-05 | — | — | — | $137.43 |
| 2026-11-04 | 60.57% | +1.28 | 1.121 | $144.90 |
| 2026-11-03 | 66.88% | -1.00 | 1.004 | $134.13 |
| 2026-11-02 | 65.28% | +0.89 | 1.027 | $146.52 |
| 2026-10-30 | 65.29% | -1.37 | 1.006 | $146.66 |
| 2026-10-29 | 67.96% | +0.17 | 0.957 | $150.79 |
| 2026-10-28 | 67.29% | +5.76 | 0.997 | $145.06 |
| 2026-10-27 | 67.75% | +6.27 | 1.000 | $140.76 |
| 2026-10-26 | 62.65% | +5.32 | 1.072 | $135.72 |
| 2026-10-23 | 64.74% | +1.98 | 1.015 | $137.43 |
| 2026-10-22 | 64.56% | +4.86 | 1.020 | $140.15 |
| 2026-10-21 | 60.32% | +0.53 | 1.127 | $128.01 |
| 2026-10-20 | 59.37% | +3.88 | 1.098 | $119.74 |
| 2026-10-19 | 61.96% | +0.07 | 1.043 | $114.03 |
| 2026-10-16 | 61.94% | +5.47 | 1.042 | $112.99 |
| 2026-10-15 | 69.48% | -2.06 | 0.954 | $117.87 |
| 2026-10-14 | 63.06% | -1.24 | 1.035 | $110.99 |
| 2026-10-13 | 59.47% | +0.97 | 1.086 | $115.88 |
| 2026-10-09 | 56.74% | +0.56 | 1.109 | $116.99 |
| 2026-10-08 | 56.83% | +3.96 | 1.126 | $113.67 |
| 2026-10-07 | 58.90% | +0.43 | 1.121 | $115.19 |
| 2026-10-06 | 57.50% | +1.58 | 1.161 | $117.16 |
| 2026-10-05 | 58.43% | +2.62 | 1.129 | $117.45 |
| 2026-10-02 | 60.84% | -1.54 | 1.069 | $120.46 |
| 2026-10-01 | 65.16% | -1.24 | 1.003 | $120.51 |
| 2026-09-30 | 60.92% | +0.98 | 1.060 | $121.75 |
| 2026-09-29 | 59.35% | -0.48 | 1.098 | $122.21 |
| 2026-09-28 | 58.90% | +1.57 | 1.091 | $122.08 |
| 2026-09-25 | 56.63% | +1.66 | 1.179 | $124.17 |
| 2026-09-24 | 58.48% | +0.80 | 1.064 | $121.19 |
| 2026-09-23 | 57.84% | +0.11 | 1.115 | $124.59 |
| 2026-09-22 | 56.80% | -0.01 | 1.163 | $130.64 |
| 2026-09-21 | 57.01% | +4.21 | 1.144 | $127.20 |
| 2026-09-18 | 55.61% | +0.41 | 1.133 | $126.54 |
| 2025-10-22 | 62.51% | +4.68 | 1.134 | $178.81 |
| 2025-10-21 | 64.16% | +1.47 | 1.107 | $185.70 |
| 2025-10-20 | 65.65% | +3.59 | 1.072 | $179.68 |
| 2025-10-17 | 67.62% | +5.35 | 1.064 | $174.27 |
| 2025-10-16 | 73.52% | +10.36 | 1.041 | $176.16 |
| 2025-10-15 | 75.82% | +5.59 | 0.957 | $176.56 |
| 2025-10-14 | — | — | — | $183.14 |
| 2025-10-10 | 69.21% | +4.59 | 0.990 | $173.37 |
| 2025-10-09 | 64.07% | -3.31 | 1.061 | $185.31 |
| 2025-10-08 | 62.57% | +2.37 | 1.066 | $199.26 |
| 2025-10-07 | 62.83% | +2.59 | 1.066 | $196.44 |
| 2025-10-06 | 62.83% | +1.12 | 1.080 | $200.00 |
| 2025-10-03 | 60.77% | +4.63 | 1.102 | $207.50 |
| 2025-10-02 | 60.89% | +3.15 | 1.092 | $203.79 |
| 2025-10-01 | 61.58% | +1.90 | 1.080 | $200.80 |
| 2025-09-30 | 60.00% | +4.07 | 1.103 | $203.16 |
| 2025-09-29 | 62.30% | +2.81 | 1.078 | $197.84 |
| 2025-09-26 | 61.90% | +0.63 | 1.059 | $202.50 |
| 2025-09-25 | 60.96% | +2.52 | 1.073 | $211.30 |
| 2025-09-24 | 61.27% | +2.48 | 1.098 | $212.62 |
| 2025-09-23 | 61.49% | +2.80 | 1.095 | $218.44 |
| 2025-09-22 | 62.00% | +1.76 | 1.071 | $217.79 |
| 2025-09-19 | 60.56% | +1.88 | 1.095 | $224.70 |
| 2025-09-18 | 60.72% | +2.11 | 1.078 | $233.46 |
| 2025-09-17 | 61.31% | +2.58 | 1.084 | $229.51 |
| 2025-09-16 | 62.91% | +2.35 | 1.028 | $230.70 |
| 2025-09-15 | 60.21% | +1.70 | 1.057 | $222.83 |
| 2025-09-12 | 58.17% | -0.70 | 1.078 | $217.62 |
| 2025-09-11 | 89.48% | +2.99 | 0.805 | $228.12 |
| 2025-09-10 | 85.39% | +6.24 | 0.827 | $228.93 |
| 2025-09-09 | 83.44% | +3.60 | 0.847 | $232.98 |
| 2025-09-08 | 82.33% | +4.45 | 0.859 | $240.99 |
| 2025-09-05 | 85.50% | +0.54 | 0.823 | $251.00 |
| 2025-09-04 | 83.43% | +10.78 | 0.863 | $235.24 |
| 2025-09-03 | 88.44% | +4.31 | 0.825 | $221.22 |
| 2025-09-02 | 89.36% | +4.45 | 0.809 | $221.72 |
| 2025-08-29 | 89.11% | +3.11 | 0.804 | $225.67 |
| 2025-08-28 | 89.17% | +1.19 | 0.791 | $229.22 |
| 2025-08-27 | 93.75% | -8.44 | 0.789 | $228.00 |
| 2025-08-26 | 85.53% | +0.39 | 0.831 | $221.19 |
| 2025-08-25 | 88.05% | +2.79 | 0.803 | $230.72 |
| 2025-08-22 | 86.55% | +2.86 | 0.782 | $243.71 |
| 2025-08-21 | 85.18% | +5.96 | 0.809 | $218.79 |
| 2025-08-20 | 87.01% | +3.56 | 0.790 | $216.61 |
| 2025-08-19 | 86.55% | +2.87 | 0.786 | $231.53 |
| 2025-08-18 | 83.21% | +2.29 | 0.802 | $229.21 |
| 2025-08-15 | 84.60% | +3.56 | 0.789 | $233.76 |
| 2025-08-14 | 78.20% | +3.01 | 0.873 | $235.10 |
| 2025-08-13 | 79.94% | +1.07 | 0.843 | $245.68 |
| 2025-08-12 | 71.52% | +3.30 | 0.941 | $237.29 |
| 2025-08-11 | 77.05% | +3.99 | 0.894 | $214.92 |
| 2025-08-08 | 71.60% | +3.07 | 0.936 | $215.04 |
| 2025-08-07 | 63.31% | +1.20 | 1.086 | $213.06 |
| 2025-08-06 | 70.07% | +4.25 | 0.988 | $213.02 |
| 2025-08-05 | 73.80% | +2.36 | 0.930 | $217.99 |
| 2025-08-04 | 74.09% | +0.56 | 0.939 | $216.89 |
| 2025-08-01 | 65.29% | +3.43 | 1.071 | $200.76 |
| 2025-07-31 | 66.89% | +2.69 | 1.031 | $205.62 |
| 2025-07-30 | 66.20% | +2.18 | 1.032 | $207.72 |
| 2025-07-29 | 59.48% | +3.65 | 1.157 | $211.53 |
| 2025-07-28 | 63.48% | +0.45 | 1.064 | $218.17 |
| 2025-07-25 | 60.34% | +2.35 | 1.143 | $213.80 |
| 2025-07-24 | 61.32% | +3.74 | 1.119 | $212.74 |
| 2025-07-23 | 61.53% | +1.62 | 1.121 | $221.00 |
| 2025-07-22 | 59.98% | +1.30 | 1.133 | $212.79 |
| 2025-07-21 | 61.11% | +0.47 | 1.140 | $194.67 |
| 2025-07-18 | 61.41% | +1.46 | 1.114 | $195.49 |
| 2025-07-17 | 58.74% | +2.86 | 1.153 | $196.76 |
| 2025-07-16 | 58.32% | -0.96 | 1.188 | $188.32 |
| 2025-07-15 | 60.08% | +2.03 | 1.160 | $187.54 |
| 2025-07-14 | 59.67% | +4.79 | 1.142 | $202.91 |
| 2025-07-11 | 56.60% | +0.32 | 1.177 | $207.52 |
| 2025-07-10 | 57.90% | +3.33 | 1.165 | $213.45 |
| 2025-07-09 | 58.96% | +4.02 | 1.167 | $203.27 |
| 2025-07-08 | 59.48% | +2.69 | 1.155 | $199.62 |
| 2025-07-07 | 60.91% | +3.34 | 1.131 | $198.38 |
| 2025-07-03 | 57.97% | +2.13 | 1.163 | $207.04 |
| 2025-07-02 | 60.64% | +4.99 | 1.117 | $205.80 |
| 2025-07-01 | 56.73% | -0.44 | 1.206 | $198.97 |
| 2025-06-30 | 57.43% | +1.66 | 1.182 | $189.01 |
| 2025-06-27 | 58.56% | +4.41 | 1.156 | $190.83 |
| 2025-06-26 | 55.64% | +5.63 | 1.202 | $193.04 |
| 2025-06-25 | 55.87% | +7.22 | 1.205 | $186.95 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 301 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 301 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
38d (2026-12-18) · 44d (2026-12-24) · 66d (2027-01-15)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 38d | 44d | 66d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Δ 看涨 | 75.97% | — | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 77.38% | — | 68.97% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 76.49% | — | 68.70% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 76.24% | 75.38% | 68.30% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 76.12% | 75.46% | 67.94% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 76.10% | 77.24% | 68.36% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 77.29% | 79.11% | 69.23% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 78.94% | 79.19% | 69.16% |
| ATM | 79.46% | 76.69% | 70.67% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 77.79% | 74.16% | 70.23% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 77.12% | 73.76% | 68.90% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 77.95% | 76.15% | 69.14% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 77.32% | 73.50% | 72.61% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 77.58% | 73.53% | 72.43% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 79.26% | 73.85% | 73.12% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 81.01% | 75.10% | 73.87% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 80.35% | — | 74.23% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 79.58% | — | 75.38% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $134.05 | 79.46% | 77.58% | 76.24% | +1.34 | -2.55 | 19 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $132.76 | 76.69% | 73.53% | 75.38% | -1.85 | -2.23 | 8 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $135.00 | 70.67% | 72.43% | 68.30% | +4.14 | -0.30 | 21 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $134.49 | 67.94% | 68.17% | 66.90% | +1.27 | -0.41 | 25 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $136.17 | 65.07% | 69.80% | 65.28% | +4.53 | +2.47 | 27 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $136.94 | 66.22% | 68.94% | 64.81% | +4.14 | +0.66 | 21 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $138.20 | 67.86% | 71.48% | 65.58% | +5.90 | +0.67 | 39 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $137.77 | 66.95% | 67.83% | 65.41% | +2.43 | -0.33 | 31 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
8 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $134.05 | 79.46% | $138.52 | 19 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $132.76 | 76.69% | $137.55 | 8 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $135.00 | 70.67% | $141.24 | 21 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $134.49 | 67.94% | $143.36 | 25 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $136.17 | 65.07% | $146.75 | 27 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $136.94 | 66.22% | $153.69 | 21 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $138.20 | 67.86% | $158.68 | 39 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $137.77 | 66.95% | $166.75 | 31 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- —
- 60 天
- 71.91%
- 90 天
- 68.58%
- 180 天
- 66.06%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 301 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 4 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 4 次中 0 次
- 0% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 18.3%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 47.3%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-11 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-31 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-11 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-11 | 收盘后 | 19.3% | -44.5% | 2.30× |
| 2025-06-12 | 收盘后 | 19.5% | -28.5% | 1.46× |
| 2025-04-02 | 收盘后 | 18.7% | -49.3% | 2.63× |
| 2024-12-12 | 收盘后 | 15.9% | -66.8% | 4.22× |
| 2024-09-12 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-13 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。