股票 · 期权分析
RTX 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $200.27
- 30D ATM IV
- 28.02%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 78
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +3.03
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.007
▲ +0.05 pts 较前一交易日
概览
RTX 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 28.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±8.0% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 239 个交易日中 78% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 3.03 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-19(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 7 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±4.9% 的波动,RTX 实际平均波动 3.5%,7 次中有 5 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 28.02%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +3.03
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.47
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.007
对应 30 天内约 ±8.0% 的波动，平常一天约 ±1.8%。
高于过去一年中 78% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 3.03 个点。
高于过去一年中 74% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.47 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 38% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 239 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 78%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 32%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 82%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 36%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $200.27
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $200.39
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 26.44%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 28.21%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 29.82%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 133,567
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.70
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 347 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 28.02% | +3.03 | 1.007 | $200.27 |
| 2026-11-09 | 27.97% | +3.71 | 1.030 | $196.31 |
| 2026-11-06 | 28.71% | +0.98 | 1.013 | $189.53 |
| 2026-11-05 | 30.38% | +3.61 | 0.947 | $191.88 |
| 2026-11-04 | 27.36% | +1.80 | 1.019 | $198.43 |
| 2026-11-03 | 27.18% | +1.38 | 1.027 | $203.82 |
| 2026-11-02 | 27.04% | +1.39 | 1.012 | $202.79 |
| 2026-10-30 | 27.16% | +1.15 | 1.001 | $199.80 |
| 2026-10-29 | 26.20% | +0.54 | 1.001 | $199.40 |
| 2026-10-28 | 25.89% | +0.90 | 1.016 | $195.84 |
| 2026-10-27 | 26.33% | +1.57 | 0.999 | $194.60 |
| 2026-10-26 | 26.83% | +1.73 | 0.987 | $197.48 |
| 2026-10-23 | 27.32% | +1.81 | 0.959 | $191.01 |
| 2026-10-22 | 27.32% | +1.14 | 0.942 | $194.71 |
| 2026-10-21 | 27.42% | +0.85 | 0.926 | $191.60 |
| 2026-10-20 | 28.25% | +1.51 | 0.918 | $193.34 |
| 2026-10-19 | 34.68% | +0.70 | 0.828 | $192.11 |
| 2026-10-16 | 32.53% | +0.64 | 0.851 | $193.92 |
| 2026-10-15 | 31.79% | +1.29 | 0.853 | $186.95 |
| 2026-10-14 | 31.60% | +1.84 | 0.861 | $186.47 |
| 2026-10-13 | 32.05% | +2.00 | 0.859 | $183.02 |
| 2026-10-09 | 30.83% | +1.18 | 0.884 | $185.97 |
| 2026-10-08 | 31.65% | +0.85 | 0.860 | $184.32 |
| 2026-10-07 | 30.57% | +0.64 | 0.895 | $180.26 |
| 2026-10-06 | 30.83% | +0.52 | 0.880 | $183.29 |
| 2026-10-05 | 30.75% | +2.42 | 0.874 | $184.33 |
| 2026-10-02 | 30.54% | +0.27 | 0.899 | $184.68 |
| 2026-10-01 | 30.61% | +0.69 | 0.895 | $185.01 |
| 2026-09-30 | 30.93% | +1.21 | 0.891 | $185.65 |
| 2026-09-29 | 30.75% | +1.65 | 0.879 | $186.94 |
| 2026-09-28 | 30.81% | +1.22 | 0.875 | $187.66 |
| 2026-09-25 | 29.69% | +1.58 | 0.905 | $189.40 |
| 2026-09-24 | 30.08% | +1.01 | 0.902 | $188.61 |
| 2026-09-23 | 29.41% | +1.12 | 0.920 | $192.19 |
| 2026-09-22 | 28.54% | +1.41 | 0.955 | $190.99 |
| 2026-09-21 | 25.78% | +0.88 | 1.042 | $194.34 |
| 2026-09-18 | 25.03% | +1.98 | 1.083 | $194.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | 24.45% | +0.86 | 1.128 | $193.54 |
| 2026-09-16 | 26.80% | +0.96 | 1.029 | $196.83 |
| 2026-09-15 | 23.78% | +1.10 | 1.137 | $195.50 |
| 2026-09-14 | — | — | — | $195.34 |
| 2026-09-11 | 23.19% | +1.02 | 1.155 | $197.68 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | — | $198.12 |
| 2026-09-09 | 24.37% | -0.36 | 1.165 | $197.55 |
| 2026-09-08 | 24.64% | +1.36 | 1.153 | $198.81 |
| 2026-09-04 | 23.45% | +0.89 | 1.184 | $200.79 |
| 2026-09-03 | 22.87% | +1.64 | 1.172 | $202.13 |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — | — | $200.78 |
| 2026-09-01 | 23.64% | +1.34 | 1.152 | $205.16 |
| 2026-08-31 | 22.73% | +1.33 | 1.166 | $207.73 |
| 2026-08-28 | 23.69% | -1.33 | 1.164 | $211.71 |
| 2026-08-26 | 22.75% | +1.58 | 1.197 | $211.99 |
| 2026-08-25 | 23.00% | +1.42 | 1.189 | $210.28 |
| 2026-08-24 | 24.17% | +0.50 | 1.131 | $209.22 |
| 2026-08-21 | — | — | — | $209.91 |
| 2026-08-20 | — | — | — | $212.29 |
| 2026-08-19 | — | — | — | $220.35 |
| 2026-08-18 | — | — | — | $225.49 |
| 2026-08-17 | — | — | — | $221.64 |
| 2025-10-22 | 21.31% | +2.23 | 1.008 | $177.98 |
| 2025-10-21 | 23.43% | +2.59 | 0.949 | $173.04 |
| 2025-10-20 | 31.59% | +2.68 | 0.809 | $160.71 |
| 2025-10-17 | 29.91% | +1.96 | 0.866 | $157.95 |
| 2025-10-16 | 32.09% | +2.68 | 0.809 | $157.05 |
| 2025-10-15 | 30.61% | +2.60 | 0.848 | $157.00 |
| 2025-10-14 | 28.87% | +1.54 | 0.838 | $159.40 |
| 2025-10-10 | 31.02% | +1.36 | 0.858 | $157.70 |
| 2025-10-09 | 29.09% | +1.88 | 0.855 | $162.18 |
| 2025-10-08 | 27.14% | +1.81 | 0.898 | $168.57 |
| 2025-10-07 | 27.64% | -1.35 | 0.822 | $169.27 |
| 2025-10-06 | 30.49% | +1.95 | 0.812 | $168.80 |
| 2025-10-03 | 28.15% | +2.09 | 0.876 | $166.58 |
| 2025-10-02 | 28.14% | +1.59 | 0.886 | $166.63 |
| 2025-10-01 | 28.87% | +1.97 | 0.868 | $167.20 |
| 2025-09-30 | 26.79% | +0.11 | 0.917 | $167.33 |
| 2025-09-29 | 23.89% | +1.69 | 1.033 | $163.63 |
| 2025-09-26 | 26.75% | +2.56 | 0.918 | $163.35 |
| 2025-09-25 | 27.12% | +1.71 | 0.916 | $160.51 |
| 2025-09-24 | 24.12% | +2.19 | 1.027 | $161.38 |
| 2025-09-23 | 23.41% | +2.36 | 1.033 | $160.54 |
| 2025-09-22 | 22.60% | +1.97 | 1.059 | $159.43 |
| 2025-09-19 | 23.03% | +1.95 | 1.073 | $158.24 |
| 2025-09-18 | 21.81% | +1.86 | 1.114 | $158.19 |
| 2025-09-17 | 21.65% | +1.89 | 1.116 | $158.31 |
| 2025-09-16 | 22.07% | +2.31 | 1.103 | $158.58 |
| 2025-09-15 | 21.41% | +2.05 | 1.121 | $158.37 |
| 2025-09-12 | 21.32% | +2.87 | 1.146 | $155.85 |
| 2025-09-11 | 20.30% | +1.53 | 1.172 | $157.65 |
| 2025-09-10 | 21.84% | +4.23 | 1.105 | $155.00 |
| 2025-09-09 | 21.51% | +2.59 | 1.117 | $151.75 |
| 2025-09-08 | 20.41% | +3.02 | 1.180 | $154.22 |
| 2025-09-05 | 20.72% | +3.15 | 1.124 | $157.52 |
| 2025-09-04 | 19.99% | +2.31 | 1.182 | $158.68 |
| 2025-09-03 | 18.76% | +4.77 | 1.261 | $158.11 |
| 2025-09-02 | 19.61% | +3.12 | 1.190 | $158.01 |
| 2025-08-29 | 18.58% | +2.37 | 1.239 | $158.60 |
| 2025-08-28 | 18.92% | +1.61 | 1.189 | $160.66 |
| 2025-08-27 | 18.93% | +2.54 | 1.164 | $159.84 |
| 2025-08-26 | 19.31% | +0.49 | 1.158 | $159.57 |
| 2025-08-25 | 17.97% | +2.31 | 1.232 | $156.27 |
| 2025-08-22 | 17.30% | +2.16 | 1.242 | $156.24 |
| 2025-08-21 | 18.75% | +2.05 | 1.200 | $156.32 |
| 2025-08-20 | 18.68% | +2.62 | 1.182 | $156.59 |
| 2025-08-19 | 18.94% | +2.50 | 1.174 | $153.66 |
| 2025-08-18 | 18.18% | +2.33 | 1.180 | $155.50 |
| 2025-08-15 | 18.45% | +3.00 | 1.170 | $154.09 |
| 2025-08-14 | 17.98% | +2.36 | 1.207 | $155.08 |
| 2025-08-13 | 17.85% | +1.49 | 1.196 | $155.71 |
| 2025-08-12 | 18.36% | +1.94 | 1.166 | $155.49 |
| 2025-08-11 | 19.57% | +1.93 | 1.133 | $154.80 |
| 2025-08-08 | — | — | — | $154.86 |
| 2025-08-07 | 18.75% | +1.17 | 1.203 | $155.76 |
| 2025-08-06 | 16.99% | +0.71 | 1.278 | $155.75 |
| 2025-08-05 | 20.43% | +2.35 | 1.141 | $156.33 |
| 2025-08-04 | 19.47% | +0.97 | 1.147 | $157.38 |
| 2025-08-01 | 20.01% | +0.18 | 1.160 | $156.81 |
| 2025-07-31 | 19.86% | +2.06 | 1.116 | $157.57 |
| 2025-07-30 | 18.54% | +1.45 | 1.179 | $158.40 |
| 2025-07-29 | 18.61% | +1.80 | 1.169 | $157.12 |
| 2025-07-28 | 19.00% | +1.84 | 1.145 | $156.07 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 347 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 347 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | — | 31.33% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 32.04% | 29.67% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 31.99% | 29.09% | 27.06% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 31.66% | 28.84% | 27.47% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 31.56% | 28.77% | 27.62% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 31.84% | 29.12% | 27.62% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 32.27% | 29.24% | 27.59% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 32.69% | 29.22% | 27.85% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 33.14% | 29.31% | 28.16% |
| ATM | 33.64% | 29.82% | 27.84% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 34.09% | 30.20% | 27.80% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 34.50% | 30.45% | 28.10% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 34.89% | 30.71% | 28.37% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 35.10% | 30.99% | 28.76% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 35.05% | 31.17% | 29.38% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 34.96% | 31.39% | 30.40% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 34.96% | 32.03% | — |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 35.17% | 33.06% | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 36.42% | 34.11% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $200.78 | 33.64% | 35.05% | 31.56% | +3.49 | -0.33 | 10 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $200.45 | 29.82% | 31.17% | 28.77% | +2.39 | +0.15 | 14 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $200.40 | 27.84% | 29.38% | 27.62% | +1.77 | +0.66 | 10 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $200.48 | 27.33% | 28.58% | 26.51% | +2.07 | +0.22 | 8 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $200.38 | 28.11% | 30.18% | 27.03% | +3.15 | +0.50 | 7 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $200.78 | 27.12% | 28.57% | 26.42% | +2.15 | +0.38 | 9 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $201.59 | 26.33% | 27.72% | 25.78% | +1.94 | +0.42 | 14 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $202.18 | 28.75% | 30.19% | 27.74% | +2.44 | +0.22 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $202.41 | 28.76% | 30.22% | 27.49% | +2.74 | +0.09 | 19 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $203.07 | 29.98% | 31.98% | 28.71% | +3.27 | +0.36 | 21 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $202.98 | 30.01% | 31.46% | 28.43% | +3.02 | -0.06 | 22 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $204.70 | 29.91% | 30.62% | 28.07% | +2.55 | -0.57 | 25 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $200.78 | 33.64% | $200.87 | 10 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $200.45 | 29.82% | $200.69 | 14 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $200.40 | 27.84% | $200.76 | 10 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $200.48 | 27.33% | $200.97 | 8 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $200.38 | 28.11% | $201.05 | 7 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $200.78 | 27.12% | $201.55 | 9 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $201.59 | 26.33% | $202.85 | 14 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $202.18 | 28.75% | $204.50 | 14 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $202.41 | 28.76% | $205.39 | 19 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $203.07 | 29.98% | $207.93 | 21 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $202.98 | 30.01% | $208.54 | 22 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $204.70 | 29.91% | $212.66 | 25 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 28.02%
- 60 天
- 26.44%
- 90 天
- 28.21%
- 180 天
- 29.82%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 347 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 7 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 7 次中 5 次
- 71% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 4.9%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 3.5%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 未说明时间 | 2.5% | -1.9% | 0.75× |
| 2026-10-20 | 开盘前 | 3.4% | -0.9% | 0.27× |
| 2026-07-23 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-21 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-27 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-21 | 开盘前 | 6.1% | +7.7% | 1.26× |
| 2025-07-22 | 开盘前 | 4.8% | -1.6% | 0.33× |
| 2025-04-22 | 开盘前 | 6.2% | -9.8% | 1.57× |
| 2025-01-28 | 开盘前 | 5.6% | +2.6% | 0.47× |
| 2024-10-22 | 开盘前 | 5.4% | -0.3% | 0.05× |
| 2024-07-25 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-23 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-23 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-24 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。