股票 · 期权分析
SHOP 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $146.78
- 30D ATM IV
- 48.26%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 40
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +2.23
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.055
▼ -2.66 pts 较前一交易日
概览
SHOP 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 48.3%,相当于未来一个月约 ±13.8% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 40% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 2.23 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
较长期限的期权波动率更高:90 天波动率比 30 天高 5%。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-01(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 4 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±15.5% 的波动,SHOP 实际平均波动 8.6%,4 次中有 3 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 48.26%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +2.23
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +2.65
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.055
对应 30 天内约 ±13.8% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.0%。
高于过去一年中 40% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 2.23 个点。
高于过去一年中 43% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 2.65 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 5%。
高于过去一年中 53% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 40%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 18%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 47%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 24%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $146.78
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $147.61
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 48.72%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 50.90%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 54.21%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 383,139
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.56
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 337 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 48.26% | +2.23 | 1.055 | $146.78 |
| 2026-11-10 | 50.92% | +4.06 | 1.049 | $146.61 |
| 2026-11-09 | 52.42% | +5.36 | 1.003 | $152.06 |
| 2026-11-06 | 54.37% | +5.38 | 0.993 | $148.91 |
| 2026-11-05 | 58.18% | +3.46 | 0.944 | $143.75 |
| 2026-11-04 | 51.10% | +2.72 | 0.998 | $153.03 |
| 2026-11-03 | 57.54% | +2.08 | 0.927 | $142.57 |
| 2026-11-02 | 81.06% | +2.34 | 0.783 | $156.22 |
| 2026-10-30 | 77.42% | +2.15 | 0.792 | $157.49 |
| 2026-10-29 | 71.29% | +2.31 | 0.834 | $166.89 |
| 2026-10-28 | 70.79% | +1.45 | 0.828 | $168.22 |
| 2026-10-27 | 71.28% | +2.85 | 0.805 | $165.81 |
| 2026-10-26 | 70.44% | +3.36 | 0.834 | $168.18 |
| 2026-10-23 | 72.13% | +3.22 | 0.814 | $168.68 |
| 2026-10-22 | 73.42% | +3.06 | 0.804 | $168.81 |
| 2026-10-21 | 71.95% | +3.12 | 0.801 | $174.29 |
| 2026-10-20 | 72.50% | +3.03 | 0.789 | $173.48 |
| 2026-10-19 | 71.63% | +3.12 | 0.803 | $171.06 |
| 2026-10-16 | 75.47% | +1.52 | 0.785 | $169.52 |
| 2026-10-15 | 71.71% | +4.17 | 0.786 | $178.14 |
| 2026-10-14 | 69.60% | +0.79 | 0.803 | $172.50 |
| 2026-10-13 | 68.62% | +0.50 | 0.811 | $176.52 |
| 2026-10-09 | 66.22% | +2.68 | 0.811 | $170.85 |
| 2026-10-08 | 70.04% | -6.84 | 0.789 | $164.56 |
| 2026-10-07 | 67.82% | +6.46 | 0.801 | $166.03 |
| 2026-10-06 | 64.31% | +0.51 | 0.856 | $164.44 |
| 2026-10-05 | 64.39% | +0.90 | 0.865 | $160.11 |
| 2026-10-02 | 56.99% | +0.62 | 0.980 | $151.39 |
| 2026-10-01 | 58.73% | -1.54 | 0.982 | $149.09 |
| 2026-09-30 | 61.77% | -0.87 | 0.952 | $148.30 |
| 2026-09-29 | 55.92% | +4.25 | 1.055 | $148.26 |
| 2026-09-28 | 56.44% | +1.41 | 1.049 | $144.01 |
| 2026-09-25 | 53.95% | -0.16 | 1.094 | $142.25 |
| 2026-09-24 | 54.85% | +3.40 | 1.077 | $145.16 |
| 2026-09-23 | 52.24% | +0.10 | 1.112 | $142.34 |
| 2026-09-22 | 52.14% | -0.07 | 1.094 | $147.74 |
| 2026-09-21 | 51.67% | -1.65 | 1.112 | $137.92 |
| 2026-09-18 | 44.76% | -0.19 | 1.215 | $128.50 |
| 2026-09-17 | 45.75% | +0.23 | 1.193 | $128.60 |
| 2026-09-16 | 48.33% | +0.92 | 1.166 | $129.96 |
| 2026-09-15 | 48.53% | -0.70 | 1.148 | $129.86 |
| 2026-09-14 | 48.23% | +2.02 | 1.167 | $133.89 |
| 2026-09-11 | 46.07% | +1.83 | 1.241 | $128.79 |
| 2026-09-10 | 48.01% | +1.35 | 1.231 | $126.60 |
| 2026-09-09 | 50.34% | +1.50 | 1.145 | $126.79 |
| 2026-09-08 | 48.78% | +0.03 | 1.146 | $134.10 |
| 2026-09-04 | 47.74% | -0.13 | 1.143 | $145.09 |
| 2026-09-03 | 42.59% | +5.54 | 1.256 | $145.88 |
| 2026-09-02 | 42.64% | -0.76 | 1.260 | $141.87 |
| 2026-09-01 | 46.32% | -2.67 | 1.153 | $139.82 |
| 2026-08-31 | 44.00% | +0.06 | 1.189 | $147.37 |
| 2026-08-28 | 44.23% | -0.09 | 1.174 | $152.90 |
| 2026-08-27 | 43.47% | -0.12 | 1.226 | $154.33 |
| 2026-08-26 | 45.66% | +0.02 | 1.166 | $150.29 |
| 2026-08-25 | 44.57% | +4.40 | 1.155 | $153.88 |
| 2025-10-22 | 68.71% | +3.82 | 0.808 | $162.01 |
| 2025-10-21 | 66.43% | +4.92 | 0.836 | $162.64 |
| 2025-10-20 | 67.12% | +3.61 | 0.813 | $164.71 |
| 2025-10-17 | 68.93% | +6.41 | 0.802 | $157.76 |
| 2025-10-16 | 75.10% | +4.43 | 0.775 | $156.57 |
| 2025-10-15 | 67.60% | +10.40 | 0.819 | $156.21 |
| 2025-10-14 | 66.99% | +8.56 | 0.842 | $152.88 |
| 2025-10-10 | 72.94% | +4.43 | 0.794 | $151.02 |
| 2025-10-09 | 66.73% | -1.75 | 0.807 | $163.87 |
| 2025-10-08 | 65.78% | -0.23 | 0.836 | $166.43 |
| 2025-10-07 | 64.12% | +0.35 | 0.854 | $161.28 |
| 2025-10-06 | 60.20% | +1.71 | 0.909 | $164.50 |
| 2025-10-03 | 54.53% | +1.78 | 0.994 | $161.14 |
| 2025-10-02 | 52.47% | -3.82 | 1.012 | $151.30 |
| 2025-10-01 | 49.75% | -3.02 | 1.081 | $149.57 |
| 2025-09-30 | 49.34% | -4.01 | 1.086 | $148.61 |
| 2025-09-29 | 49.85% | -2.05 | 1.088 | $149.00 |
| 2025-09-26 | 47.19% | +0.80 | 1.117 | $140.25 |
| 2025-09-25 | 46.16% | +1.15 | 1.155 | $143.45 |
| 2025-09-24 | 45.33% | -0.37 | 1.166 | $148.83 |
| 2025-09-23 | 45.78% | -1.19 | 1.167 | $149.94 |
| 2025-09-22 | 43.66% | +2.43 | 1.184 | $157.12 |
| 2025-09-19 | 41.32% | +2.30 | 1.207 | $153.30 |
| 2025-09-18 | 42.61% | +1.03 | 1.178 | $152.11 |
| 2025-09-17 | 42.27% | +0.98 | 1.164 | $147.87 |
| 2025-09-16 | 42.66% | +1.08 | 1.162 | $147.21 |
| 2025-09-15 | 42.59% | +0.68 | 1.169 | $147.89 |
| 2025-09-12 | 39.58% | +1.68 | 1.217 | $143.38 |
| 2025-09-11 | 39.04% | +2.22 | 1.213 | $145.03 |
| 2025-09-10 | 39.94% | +2.37 | 1.230 | $142.20 |
| 2025-09-09 | 37.85% | +1.70 | 1.282 | $143.44 |
| 2025-09-08 | 39.02% | +2.34 | 1.221 | $146.22 |
| 2025-09-05 | 38.54% | +2.97 | 1.255 | $146.82 |
| 2025-09-04 | 39.53% | +3.71 | 1.220 | $145.15 |
| 2025-09-03 | 38.59% | +5.81 | 1.269 | $140.22 |
| 2025-09-02 | 40.04% | +3.91 | 1.225 | $139.04 |
| 2025-08-29 | 39.24% | +3.77 | 1.232 | $141.28 |
| 2025-08-28 | 38.33% | +2.73 | 1.252 | $141.54 |
| 2025-08-27 | 37.06% | +7.23 | 1.306 | $139.89 |
| 2025-08-26 | 40.07% | +2.74 | 1.206 | $140.85 |
| 2025-08-25 | 38.31% | +2.85 | 1.257 | $140.53 |
| 2025-08-22 | 39.34% | +1.93 | 1.205 | $142.11 |
| 2025-08-21 | 40.86% | +3.88 | 1.193 | $136.68 |
| 2025-08-20 | 41.19% | +2.94 | 1.181 | $137.29 |
| 2025-08-19 | 40.64% | +2.66 | 1.216 | $139.25 |
| 2025-08-18 | 38.74% | +2.37 | 1.218 | $143.11 |
| 2025-08-15 | 37.62% | +1.60 | 1.236 | $141.47 |
| 2025-08-14 | 38.68% | -0.38 | 1.196 | $144.27 |
| 2025-08-13 | 39.67% | -0.09 | 1.149 | $150.09 |
| 2025-08-12 | 36.81% | -0.11 | 1.237 | $149.30 |
| 2025-08-11 | 39.55% | +1.18 | 1.151 | $147.50 |
| 2025-08-08 | 38.10% | +1.72 | 1.158 | $149.61 |
| 2025-08-07 | 41.40% | +1.45 | 1.089 | $151.07 |
| 2025-08-06 | 43.91% | -0.18 | — | $154.90 |
| 2025-08-05 | 61.60% | -4.76 | 0.830 | $127.00 |
| 2025-08-04 | 62.68% | +3.08 | 0.830 | $125.21 |
| 2025-08-01 | 63.37% | +2.33 | 0.820 | $118.60 |
| 2025-07-31 | 62.84% | +1.46 | 0.805 | $122.21 |
| 2025-07-30 | 62.97% | +4.25 | 0.793 | $123.01 |
| 2025-07-29 | 61.38% | -2.77 | 0.814 | $124.85 |
| 2025-07-28 | 59.09% | +5.20 | 0.831 | $126.84 |
| 2025-07-25 | 59.79% | -0.78 | 0.826 | $124.43 |
| 2025-07-24 | 58.64% | +3.40 | 0.827 | $122.08 |
| 2025-07-23 | 63.05% | +7.12 | 0.796 | $122.21 |
| 2025-07-22 | 63.27% | +0.96 | 0.779 | $123.71 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 337 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 337 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-13) · 8d (2026-11-20) · 15d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 8d | 15d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 59.38% | 53.13% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 57.21% | 51.98% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 57.08% | 51.50% | 47.04% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 57.03% | 51.53% | 46.88% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 56.92% | 52.44% | 47.04% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 56.65% | 51.95% | 46.58% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 56.25% | 51.92% | 46.01% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 56.01% | 52.32% | 46.12% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 58.12% | 52.77% | 46.66% |
| ATM | 59.42% | 53.27% | 45.25% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 59.08% | 53.20% | 48.91% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 58.95% | 51.97% | 50.22% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 58.92% | 53.32% | 49.65% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 61.16% | 53.38% | 51.24% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 62.93% | 54.15% | 51.62% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 63.32% | 54.25% | 52.35% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 63.61% | 55.14% | 53.11% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 63.83% | 56.51% | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 64.03% | 58.87% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 | $146.79 | 59.42% | 62.93% | 56.92% | +6.01 | +0.51 | 14 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $146.77 | 53.27% | 54.15% | 52.44% | +1.71 | +0.02 | 26 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $147.40 | 45.25% | 51.62% | 47.04% | +4.58 | +4.08 | 22 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $147.30 | 49.97% | 49.43% | 48.52% | +0.91 | -1.00 | 25 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $147.67 | 47.95% | 52.35% | 50.03% | +2.33 | +3.24 | 20 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $147.23 | 49.74% | 50.38% | 48.65% | +1.73 | -0.23 | 17 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $148.55 | 49.00% | 52.57% | 48.42% | +4.14 | +1.50 | 22 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $148.09 | 48.68% | 51.75% | 47.48% | +4.27 | +0.93 | 21 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $150.28 | 52.43% | 57.14% | 52.41% | +4.73 | +2.34 | 26 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 | $150.36 | 53.89% | 55.66% | 52.14% | +3.52 | +0.01 | 30 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $150.95 | 54.55% | 56.08% | 53.31% | +2.77 | +0.14 | 36 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 | $153.29 | 54.83% | 57.28% | 54.08% | +3.20 | +0.85 | 36 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 天 | $146.79 | 59.42% | $146.86 | 14 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $146.77 | 53.27% | $147.23 | 26 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $147.40 | 45.25% | $148.02 | 22 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $147.30 | 49.97% | $148.41 | 25 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $147.67 | 47.95% | $149.03 | 20 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $147.23 | 49.74% | $149.04 | 17 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $148.55 | 49.00% | $150.61 | 22 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $148.09 | 48.68% | $151.19 | 21 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $150.28 | 52.43% | $157.64 | 26 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 天 | $150.36 | 53.89% | $159.92 | 30 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $150.95 | 54.55% | $164.91 | 36 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 天 | $153.29 | 54.83% | $174.08 | 36 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 48.26%
- 60 天
- 48.72%
- 90 天
- 50.90%
- 180 天
- 54.21%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 337 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 4 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 4 次中 3 次
- 75% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 15.5%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 8.6%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 开盘前 | 18.1% | -8.7% | 0.48× |
| 2026-08-05 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-05 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-11 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-04 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-06 | 开盘前 | 13.5% | +22.0% | 1.63× |
| 2025-05-08 | 开盘前 | 13.9% | -0.5% | 0.04× |
| 2025-02-11 | 开盘前 | 16.5% | +3.1% | 0.19× |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。