股票 · 期权分析
SNOW 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $298.70
- 30D ATM IV
- 76.27%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 99
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +7.16
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.795
▲ +0.44 pts 较前一交易日
概览
SNOW 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 76.3%,相当于未来一个月约 ±21.9% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 99% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 7.16 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 21%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2026-12-02 收盘后。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±14.9% 的波动,SNOW 实际平均波动 77.6%,5 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 76.27%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +7.16
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.28
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.795
对应 30 天内约 ±21.9% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.8%。
高于过去一年几乎所有的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 7.16 个点。
高于过去一年中 87% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.28 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 21%。
高于过去一年中 15% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 99%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 88%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 99%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 88%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $298.70
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $298.95
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 64.62%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 60.63%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 59.55%
- 使用的到期日数
- 14
- 总未平仓量
- 415,272
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.78
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 337 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 76.27% | +7.16 | 0.795 | $298.70 |
| 2026-11-10 | 75.83% | +8.44 | 0.805 | $295.76 |
| 2026-11-09 | 75.58% | +7.38 | 0.796 | $291.14 |
| 2026-11-06 | 76.84% | +9.79 | 0.809 | $275.88 |
| 2026-11-05 | 82.52% | +9.80 | 0.775 | $269.54 |
| 2026-11-04 | 75.87% | +7.54 | 0.793 | $290.60 |
| 2026-11-03 | 75.26% | +6.37 | 0.814 | $295.04 |
| 2026-11-02 | 73.93% | +7.97 | 0.843 | $290.68 |
| 2026-10-30 | 66.95% | +5.21 | 0.897 | $306.08 |
| 2026-10-29 | 65.61% | +2.76 | 0.890 | $330.27 |
| 2026-10-28 | 58.04% | -0.04 | 1.005 | $339.91 |
| 2026-10-27 | 54.94% | +3.17 | 1.064 | $337.42 |
| 2026-10-26 | 54.05% | +2.60 | 1.093 | $334.95 |
| 2026-10-23 | 54.28% | +3.18 | 1.087 | $325.43 |
| 2026-10-22 | 54.72% | +4.47 | 1.074 | $313.96 |
| 2026-10-21 | 52.26% | +5.39 | 1.085 | $322.73 |
| 2026-10-20 | 53.05% | +4.58 | 1.097 | $319.61 |
| 2026-10-19 | 54.32% | +3.91 | 1.062 | $315.35 |
| 2026-10-16 | 57.48% | +3.23 | 1.044 | $306.84 |
| 2026-10-15 | 51.96% | +4.34 | 1.111 | $335.07 |
| 2026-10-14 | 51.64% | +1.96 | 1.094 | $335.08 |
| 2026-10-13 | 48.49% | +2.11 | 1.117 | $357.76 |
| 2026-10-09 | 47.27% | +1.18 | 1.145 | $368.89 |
| 2026-10-08 | 47.49% | +0.23 | 1.132 | $343.40 |
| 2026-10-07 | 46.89% | +1.88 | 1.152 | $332.85 |
| 2026-10-06 | 46.85% | -0.13 | 1.175 | $335.95 |
| 2026-10-05 | 47.25% | +0.40 | 1.156 | $338.99 |
| 2026-10-02 | 48.70% | +0.82 | 1.157 | $341.04 |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.06% | -0.23 | 1.105 | $341.99 |
| 2026-09-30 | 48.70% | +1.65 | 1.169 | $339.56 |
| 2026-09-29 | 50.15% | +2.32 | 1.151 | $330.31 |
| 2026-09-28 | 48.09% | -0.32 | 1.157 | $328.12 |
| 2026-09-25 | 48.10% | +0.11 | 1.168 | $335.94 |
| 2026-09-24 | 46.01% | +3.38 | 1.218 | $334.00 |
| 2026-09-23 | 48.01% | -0.57 | 1.176 | $334.81 |
| 2026-09-22 | 47.28% | -1.20 | 1.175 | $336.59 |
| 2026-09-21 | 44.91% | +1.30 | 1.238 | $339.39 |
| 2026-09-18 | 43.25% | +1.26 | 1.250 | $332.43 |
| 2026-09-17 | 43.71% | +1.52 | 1.243 | $338.39 |
| 2026-09-16 | 46.84% | +1.85 | 1.176 | $331.02 |
| 2026-09-15 | 46.23% | +1.45 | 1.175 | $322.98 |
| 2026-09-14 | 45.16% | +2.08 | 1.207 | $332.35 |
| 2026-09-11 | 45.75% | +2.15 | 1.163 | $328.99 |
| 2026-09-10 | 45.27% | +0.45 | 1.151 | $329.72 |
| 2026-09-09 | 45.52% | +0.60 | 1.163 | $331.48 |
| 2026-09-08 | 47.34% | -1.16 | 1.083 | $335.50 |
| 2026-09-04 | 42.40% | -0.23 | 1.151 | $337.18 |
| 2026-09-03 | 44.63% | -0.25 | 1.114 | $356.47 |
| 2026-09-02 | 72.71% | -0.23 | 0.802 | $305.84 |
| 2026-09-01 | 68.85% | +1.75 | 0.845 | $319.80 |
| 2026-08-31 | 68.63% | +0.71 | 0.841 | $331.43 |
| 2026-08-28 | 69.43% | -0.24 | 0.838 | $328.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | 70.18% | -0.74 | 0.838 | $329.11 |
| 2026-08-26 | 70.86% | +3.36 | 0.819 | $315.37 |
| 2026-08-25 | 72.70% | +3.39 | 0.824 | $317.02 |
| 2025-10-22 | 58.36% | -0.24 | 0.834 | $241.67 |
| 2025-10-21 | 51.59% | +2.17 | 0.900 | $247.52 |
| 2025-10-20 | 49.81% | +3.27 | 0.951 | $245.67 |
| 2025-10-17 | 48.60% | +3.87 | 1.003 | $240.74 |
| 2025-10-16 | 49.42% | +2.66 | 1.002 | $240.06 |
| 2025-10-15 | 43.83% | +2.04 | 1.125 | $240.86 |
| 2025-10-14 | 43.57% | +3.08 | 1.124 | $240.83 |
| 2025-10-10 | 47.17% | +2.12 | 1.079 | $242.17 |
| 2025-10-09 | 43.77% | +1.13 | 1.107 | $250.67 |
| 2025-10-08 | 44.76% | +1.75 | 1.085 | $250.21 |
| 2025-10-07 | 43.30% | +2.82 | 1.123 | $234.81 |
| 2025-10-06 | 43.69% | +2.03 | 1.106 | $242.52 |
| 2025-10-03 | 42.26% | +1.85 | 1.139 | $235.09 |
| 2025-10-02 | 42.55% | +1.41 | 1.125 | $240.54 |
| 2025-10-01 | 41.46% | +1.89 | 1.159 | $230.55 |
| 2025-09-30 | 40.75% | +3.82 | 1.155 | $225.55 |
| 2025-09-29 | 38.89% | +0.23 | 1.208 | $225.25 |
| 2025-09-26 | 38.94% | +2.74 | 1.199 | $224.64 |
| 2025-09-25 | 39.87% | +2.31 | 1.172 | $221.60 |
| 2025-09-24 | 39.12% | +0.83 | 1.194 | $222.57 |
| 2025-09-23 | 39.27% | +1.37 | 1.201 | $223.54 |
| 2025-09-22 | 38.68% | +2.09 | 1.192 | $229.54 |
| 2025-09-19 | 36.39% | +0.87 | 1.230 | $230.48 |
| 2025-09-18 | 36.49% | +0.25 | 1.218 | $222.11 |
| 2025-09-17 | 36.76% | +1.19 | 1.199 | $217.96 |
| 2025-09-16 | 37.40% | +0.92 | 1.201 | $215.95 |
| 2025-09-15 | 36.46% | +0.63 | 1.201 | $225.79 |
| 2025-09-12 | 34.73% | +0.85 | 1.246 | $221.15 |
| 2025-09-11 | 34.37% | +3.87 | 1.250 | $224.53 |
| 2025-09-10 | 34.93% | +2.32 | 1.245 | $225.85 |
| 2025-09-09 | 33.71% | +2.07 | 1.260 | $225.56 |
| 2025-09-08 | 34.92% | +3.61 | 1.211 | $226.52 |
| 2025-09-05 | 34.40% | +1.61 | 1.230 | $225.58 |
| 2025-09-04 | 34.97% | +1.16 | 1.204 | $221.90 |
| 2025-09-03 | 34.45% | +4.95 | 1.224 | $229.33 |
| 2025-09-02 | 36.45% | +0.72 | 1.146 | $233.60 |
| 2025-08-29 | 34.63% | +1.79 | 1.171 | $238.66 |
| 2025-08-28 | 36.24% | +1.33 | 1.136 | $241.00 |
| 2025-08-27 | 57.52% | -3.16 | 0.866 | $200.39 |
| 2025-08-26 | 59.76% | +0.77 | 0.853 | $194.35 |
| 2025-08-25 | 60.49% | +1.22 | 0.824 | $194.68 |
| 2025-08-22 | 60.00% | +2.75 | 0.827 | $196.81 |
| 2025-08-21 | 62.01% | +4.87 | 0.812 | $194.68 |
| 2025-08-20 | 63.29% | +4.30 | 0.805 | $194.80 |
| 2025-08-19 | 62.47% | +2.68 | 0.805 | $192.63 |
| 2025-08-18 | 60.06% | +1.44 | 0.810 | $198.24 |
| 2025-08-15 | 59.92% | +1.68 | 0.793 | $199.08 |
| 2025-08-14 | 60.81% | +0.65 | 0.804 | $194.90 |
| 2025-08-13 | 61.46% | +2.66 | 0.798 | $196.87 |
| 2025-08-12 | 62.00% | +2.49 | 0.792 | $193.06 |
| 2025-08-11 | 61.41% | +4.09 | 0.822 | $191.80 |
| 2025-08-08 | 60.74% | +4.41 | 0.822 | $191.73 |
| 2025-08-07 | 59.06% | +0.86 | 0.790 | $206.40 |
| 2025-08-06 | 57.65% | +3.18 | 0.803 | $210.54 |
| 2025-08-05 | 57.82% | +2.99 | 0.800 | $205.77 |
| 2025-08-04 | 55.62% | +3.01 | 0.823 | $208.48 |
| 2025-08-01 | 59.13% | +3.96 | 0.798 | $205.02 |
| 2025-07-31 | 56.59% | +4.60 | 0.790 | $223.50 |
| 2025-07-30 | 55.29% | +3.98 | 0.798 | $220.28 |
| 2025-07-29 | 52.58% | +1.99 | 0.823 | $218.76 |
| 2025-07-28 | 52.73% | +2.06 | 0.819 | $218.67 |
| 2025-07-25 | 50.41% | +4.12 | 0.846 | $219.51 |
| 2025-07-24 | 49.49% | +3.60 | 0.861 | $215.02 |
| 2025-07-23 | 46.40% | +3.53 | 0.922 | $212.56 |
| 2025-07-22 | 45.65% | +2.22 | 0.929 | $212.25 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 337 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 337 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-13) · 8d (2026-11-20) · 15d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 8d | 15d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | — | 57.32% | 51.86% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 67.24% | 57.17% | 51.42% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 66.42% | 57.18% | 51.02% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 65.76% | 57.24% | 50.60% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 65.72% | 57.44% | 50.70% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 65.73% | 57.59% | 51.44% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 65.81% | 57.84% | 50.68% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 66.03% | 58.05% | 51.08% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 66.32% | 58.39% | 51.89% |
| ATM | 66.47% | 58.69% | 52.36% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 66.64% | 59.04% | 54.91% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 66.91% | 59.43% | 54.29% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 67.35% | 59.92% | 55.40% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 68.17% | 60.44% | 55.52% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 69.09% | 61.11% | 57.09% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 70.22% | 61.89% | 58.21% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 71.70% | 62.97% | 59.01% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 73.17% | 64.43% | 61.08% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 76.72% | 67.50% | 61.44% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 | $298.48 | 66.47% | 69.09% | 65.72% | +3.37 | +0.94 | 16 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $298.70 | 58.69% | 61.11% | 57.44% | +3.67 | +0.58 | 40 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $298.92 | 52.36% | 57.09% | 50.70% | +6.40 | +1.54 | 42 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $299.00 | 82.58% | 86.49% | 79.46% | +7.02 | +0.39 | 43 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $298.95 | 76.91% | 80.34% | 72.88% | +7.46 | -0.30 | 41 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $298.95 | 73.09% | 75.76% | 70.10% | +5.66 | -0.16 | 28 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $298.59 | 70.09% | 73.02% | 66.77% | +6.26 | -0.20 | 37 |
| 2026-12-31 | 49 | $298.52 | 67.96% | 70.27% | 63.98% | +6.29 | -0.84 | 21 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $300.45 | 63.66% | 65.94% | 61.22% | +4.72 | -0.08 | 34 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 | $301.11 | 59.94% | 62.91% | 56.94% | +5.98 | -0.01 | 38 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $302.41 | 62.12% | 65.47% | 59.67% | +5.80 | +0.45 | 44 |
| 2027-05-21 | 190 | $303.38 | 59.22% | 61.59% | 56.61% | +4.98 | -0.12 | 41 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $305.48 | 60.13% | 63.31% | 58.22% | +5.09 | +0.63 | 57 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 | $309.09 | 58.74% | 61.83% | 56.88% | +4.95 | +0.61 | 56 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
14 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 天 | $298.48 | 66.47% | $298.66 | 16 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $298.70 | 58.69% | $299.83 | 40 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $298.92 | 52.36% | $300.61 | 42 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $299.00 | 82.58% | $305.21 | 43 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $298.95 | 76.91% | $306.05 | 41 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $298.95 | 73.09% | $306.93 | 28 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $298.59 | 70.09% | $307.15 | 37 |
| 2026-12-31 | 49 天 | $298.52 | 67.96% | $307.92 | 21 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $300.45 | 63.66% | $311.32 | 34 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 天 | $301.11 | 59.94% | $316.15 | 38 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $302.41 | 62.12% | $323.41 | 44 |
| 2027-05-21 | 190 天 | $303.38 | 59.22% | $332.37 | 41 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $305.48 | 60.13% | $340.15 | 57 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 天 | $309.09 | 58.74% | $357.70 | 56 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 76.27%
- 60 天
- 64.62%
- 90 天
- 60.63%
- 180 天
- 59.55%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 337 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 1 次
- 20% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 14.9%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 77.6%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 收盘后 | 17.0% | +16.6% | 0.98× |
| 2026-05-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-03 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-27 | 收盘后 | 13.8% | +58.2% | 4.21× |
| 2025-05-21 | 收盘后 | 12.6% | +77.0% | 6.13× |
| 2025-02-26 | 收盘后 | 15.9% | +90.8% | 5.72× |
| 2024-11-20 | 收盘后 | 15.3% | +145.5% | 9.49× |
| 2024-08-21 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-22 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。