股票 · 期权分析
SOFI 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $15.63
- 30D ATM IV
- 50.00%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 12
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +2.94
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.050
▼ -0.08 pts 较前一交易日
概览
SOFI 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 50.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±14.3% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 12% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 2.94 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-26(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±12.6% 的波动,SOFI 实际平均波动 6.7%,6 次中有 5 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 50.00%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +2.94
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.75
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.050
对应 30 天内约 ±14.3% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.1%。
高于过去一年中 12% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 2.94 个点。
高于过去一年中 71% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.75 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 5%。
高于过去一年中 55% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 12%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 10%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 13%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 10%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $15.63
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $15.71
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 49.49%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 52.49%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 52.83%
- 使用的到期日数
- 14
- 总未平仓量
- 2,950,676
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.53
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 335 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 50.00% | +2.94 | 1.050 | $15.63 |
| 2026-11-10 | 50.08% | +6.90 | 1.028 | $16.37 |
| 2026-11-09 | 48.66% | +7.19 | 1.027 | $16.75 |
| 2026-11-06 | 51.44% | +7.69 | 1.004 | $16.21 |
| 2026-11-05 | 54.53% | +8.27 | 0.970 | $16.04 |
| 2026-11-04 | 44.65% | +4.24 | 1.058 | $17.38 |
| 2026-11-03 | 49.19% | +5.96 | 1.009 | $16.77 |
| 2026-11-02 | 49.54% | +4.46 | 0.991 | $16.60 |
| 2026-10-30 | 46.62% | +4.56 | 1.038 | $16.76 |
| 2026-10-29 | 43.05% | +2.33 | 1.063 | $17.61 |
| 2026-10-28 | 43.83% | +3.48 | 1.057 | $17.14 |
| 2026-10-27 | 45.44% | +3.11 | 1.028 | $16.40 |
| 2026-10-26 | 58.95% | +2.01 | 0.901 | $14.46 |
| 2026-10-23 | 60.61% | +2.23 | 0.875 | $14.62 |
| 2026-10-22 | 60.01% | +1.05 | 0.873 | $14.77 |
| 2026-10-21 | 58.48% | +2.41 | 0.888 | $14.90 |
| 2026-10-20 | 58.80% | +2.97 | 0.893 | $14.68 |
| 2026-10-19 | 59.14% | +1.99 | 0.885 | $14.30 |
| 2026-10-16 | 60.26% | +1.39 | 0.873 | $14.55 |
| 2026-10-15 | 58.25% | +3.42 | 0.885 | $15.09 |
| 2026-10-14 | 59.77% | +0.88 | 0.880 | $14.22 |
| 2026-10-13 | 54.95% | +0.44 | 0.905 | $15.24 |
| 2026-10-09 | 54.18% | +1.35 | 0.923 | $15.80 |
| 2026-10-08 | 55.56% | -0.76 | 0.914 | $15.61 |
| 2026-10-07 | 54.64% | -0.54 | 0.918 | $15.66 |
| 2026-10-06 | 54.14% | -0.41 | 0.930 | $15.76 |
| 2026-10-05 | 53.58% | -0.05 | 0.942 | $15.92 |
| 2026-10-02 | 54.28% | -0.43 | 0.959 | $15.77 |
| 2026-10-01 | 56.06% | +0.83 | 0.943 | $15.84 |
| 2026-09-30 | 54.24% | -1.01 | 0.956 | $15.72 |
| 2026-09-29 | 53.75% | -1.09 | 0.954 | $15.91 |
| 2026-09-28 | 50.18% | -2.85 | 1.039 | $15.93 |
| 2026-09-25 | 45.48% | -0.93 | 1.137 | $16.58 |
| 2026-09-24 | 45.88% | +1.04 | 1.142 | $16.80 |
| 2026-09-23 | 45.21% | -2.90 | 1.167 | $16.55 |
| 2026-09-22 | 45.17% | -0.12 | 1.182 | $17.16 |
| 2026-09-21 | 44.90% | -1.14 | 1.166 | $16.97 |
| 2026-09-18 | 43.99% | -0.36 | 1.192 | $16.96 |
| 2026-09-17 | 46.21% | -1.45 | 1.166 | $16.73 |
| 2026-09-16 | 48.40% | +0.32 | 1.129 | $16.84 |
| 2026-09-15 | 48.11% | +1.33 | 1.130 | $17.07 |
| 2026-09-14 | 47.56% | +0.29 | 1.145 | $17.65 |
| 2026-09-11 | 46.28% | -1.05 | 1.182 | $17.32 |
| 2026-09-10 | 48.10% | -1.72 | 1.159 | $17.21 |
| 2026-09-09 | 49.96% | -2.86 | 1.135 | $17.33 |
| 2026-09-08 | 50.14% | -0.89 | 1.126 | $18.01 |
| 2026-09-04 | 47.57% | -0.78 | 1.179 | $18.22 |
| 2026-09-03 | 48.16% | +0.03 | 1.172 | $18.51 |
| 2026-09-02 | 47.55% | +0.45 | 1.166 | $17.84 |
| 2026-09-01 | 47.01% | +0.98 | 1.177 | $17.05 |
| 2026-08-31 | 47.48% | -1.34 | 1.184 | $17.88 |
| 2026-08-28 | 48.02% | -2.89 | 1.179 | $18.06 |
| 2026-08-27 | 50.43% | +0.51 | 1.133 | $19.18 |
| 2026-08-26 | 50.10% | +0.51 | 1.135 | $18.84 |
| 2025-10-22 | 84.82% | +1.73 | 0.854 | $27.19 |
| 2025-10-21 | 82.55% | +1.55 | 0.851 | $28.75 |
| 2025-10-20 | 81.37% | +2.73 | 0.864 | $28.68 |
| 2025-10-17 | 84.13% | +2.82 | 0.839 | $26.54 |
| 2025-10-16 | 89.32% | +2.63 | 0.828 | $26.60 |
| 2025-10-15 | 83.32% | +2.15 | 0.853 | $28.03 |
| 2025-10-14 | 82.43% | +3.70 | 0.855 | $27.87 |
| 2025-10-10 | 88.66% | +0.53 | 0.836 | $26.19 |
| 2025-10-09 | 83.54% | -2.63 | 0.848 | $28.45 |
| 2025-10-08 | 83.09% | -3.06 | 0.858 | $28.02 |
| 2025-10-07 | 83.32% | -3.03 | 0.862 | $28.14 |
| 2025-10-06 | 80.69% | -4.21 | 0.871 | $26.36 |
| 2025-10-03 | 74.71% | -3.18 | 0.904 | $25.24 |
| 2025-10-02 | 74.34% | -2.64 | 0.903 | $25.97 |
| 2025-10-01 | 73.43% | -3.19 | 0.914 | $25.76 |
| 2025-09-30 | 71.61% | +0.48 | 0.936 | $26.42 |
| 2025-09-29 | 69.12% | -2.22 | 0.973 | $27.55 |
| 2025-09-26 | 61.61% | -0.44 | 1.068 | $27.98 |
| 2025-09-25 | 62.60% | +0.20 | 1.076 | $28.12 |
| 2025-09-24 | 61.32% | -0.39 | 1.095 | $28.44 |
| 2025-09-23 | 61.87% | -0.73 | — | $29.09 |
| 2025-09-22 | 61.59% | -0.40 | — | $29.81 |
| 2025-09-19 | 60.43% | -1.47 | 1.078 | $29.51 |
| 2025-09-18 | 58.31% | -0.91 | 1.089 | $28.11 |
| 2025-09-17 | 59.13% | -0.70 | 1.085 | $27.14 |
| 2025-09-16 | 60.57% | -0.52 | 1.069 | $27.42 |
| 2025-09-15 | 59.78% | -0.58 | 1.073 | $27.67 |
| 2025-09-12 | 56.94% | -0.60 | 1.108 | $26.55 |
| 2025-09-11 | 56.89% | -1.40 | 1.110 | $25.96 |
| 2025-09-10 | 56.01% | +1.00 | 1.130 | $25.52 |
| 2025-09-09 | 59.80% | +0.17 | 1.062 | $25.97 |
| 2025-09-08 | 57.27% | +0.65 | 1.107 | $25.96 |
| 2025-09-05 | 58.07% | +1.23 | 1.113 | $25.60 |
| 2025-09-04 | 57.37% | +0.54 | 1.112 | $25.38 |
| 2025-09-03 | 57.18% | +0.09 | 1.128 | $24.49 |
| 2025-09-02 | 59.43% | +0.11 | 1.092 | $24.91 |
| 2025-08-29 | 56.81% | -0.26 | 1.129 | $25.54 |
| 2025-08-28 | 58.43% | -1.91 | 1.109 | $26.04 |
| 2025-08-27 | 59.42% | -2.06 | 1.093 | $24.96 |
| 2025-08-26 | 61.06% | -1.07 | 1.081 | $25.62 |
| 2025-08-25 | 63.84% | -1.95 | 1.049 | $26.15 |
| 2025-08-22 | 59.54% | +1.62 | 1.082 | $25.02 |
| 2025-08-21 | 59.54% | +1.76 | 1.068 | $23.33 |
| 2025-08-20 | 58.44% | +2.17 | 1.067 | $22.52 |
| 2025-08-19 | 56.77% | +0.60 | 1.091 | $22.75 |
| 2025-08-18 | 54.20% | +1.42 | 1.108 | $24.23 |
| 2025-08-15 | 54.39% | +0.50 | 1.104 | $23.77 |
| 2025-08-14 | 55.49% | +1.45 | 1.076 | $23.29 |
| 2025-08-13 | 55.26% | +0.62 | 1.059 | $23.81 |
| 2025-08-12 | 52.33% | +0.72 | 1.100 | $23.65 |
| 2025-08-11 | 53.18% | +1.00 | 1.087 | $22.42 |
| 2025-08-08 | 52.30% | +0.83 | 1.077 | $22.10 |
| 2025-08-07 | 52.72% | +0.96 | 1.073 | $22.08 |
| 2025-08-06 | 53.30% | +0.75 | 1.074 | $21.46 |
| 2025-08-05 | 56.22% | +0.70 | 1.029 | $21.54 |
| 2025-08-04 | 54.57% | +0.82 | 1.039 | $21.81 |
| 2025-08-01 | 57.53% | +0.50 | 0.997 | $21.23 |
| 2025-07-31 | 54.71% | +0.87 | 1.034 | $22.58 |
| 2025-07-30 | 53.36% | -1.78 | 1.035 | $21.87 |
| 2025-07-29 | 54.38% | -0.61 | 0.995 | $22.40 |
| 2025-07-28 | 62.30% | +0.24 | 0.919 | $21.02 |
| 2025-07-25 | 63.13% | -0.90 | 0.919 | $21.20 |
| 2025-07-24 | 65.58% | -1.06 | 0.899 | $21.51 |
| 2025-07-23 | 66.47% | +0.65 | 0.888 | $21.56 |
| 2025-07-22 | 67.10% | -2.24 | 0.895 | $20.98 |
| 2025-07-21 | 65.46% | -1.33 | 0.899 | $21.16 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 335 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
8d (2026-11-20) · 15d (2026-11-27) · 22d (2026-12-04)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 8d | 15d | 22d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 61.37% | 55.45% | 55.07% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 55.03% | 51.31% | 51.15% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 54.27% | 49.35% | 49.52% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 53.24% | 48.52% | 48.54% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 52.12% | 48.25% | 48.26% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 51.37% | 48.13% | 48.15% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 50.75% | 47.85% | 48.10% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 50.48% | 47.39% | 48.37% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 50.56% | 47.25% | 48.90% |
| ATM | 50.77% | 47.32% | 49.02% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 51.02% | 47.46% | 49.07% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 51.26% | 47.67% | 49.36% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 51.51% | 48.09% | 50.14% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 51.83% | 48.65% | 50.81% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 52.36% | 49.51% | 51.46% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 53.48% | 50.50% | 52.10% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 55.00% | 51.27% | 53.15% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 56.86% | 52.98% | 54.92% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 61.96% | 60.55% | 59.04% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $15.67 | 50.77% | 52.36% | 52.12% | +0.24 | +1.48 | 16 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $15.69 | 47.32% | 49.51% | 48.25% | +1.26 | +1.56 | 21 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $15.71 | 49.02% | 51.46% | 48.26% | +3.19 | +0.84 | 26 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $15.71 | 49.91% | 52.20% | 49.21% | +2.99 | +0.79 | 27 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $15.71 | 50.42% | 52.32% | 49.61% | +2.71 | +0.54 | 21 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $15.74 | 49.17% | 51.58% | 48.09% | +3.49 | +0.66 | 29 |
| 2026-12-31 | 49 | $15.75 | 48.52% | 51.65% | 47.44% | +4.20 | +1.03 | 14 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $15.79 | 49.75% | 52.39% | 48.52% | +3.86 | +0.70 | 29 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 | $15.84 | 53.09% | 55.22% | 51.31% | +3.90 | +0.18 | 16 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $15.91 | 53.06% | 55.25% | 51.91% | +3.34 | +0.52 | 13 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 | $15.97 | 52.23% | 54.05% | 50.46% | +3.59 | +0.03 | 22 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $16.12 | 53.46% | 56.33% | 52.26% | +4.07 | +0.84 | 33 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 | $16.24 | 54.37% | 55.64% | 53.22% | +2.41 | +0.06 | 12 |
| 2027-12-17 | 400 | $16.50 | 54.28% | 56.30% | 53.83% | +2.47 | +0.79 | 17 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
14 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $15.67 | 50.77% | $15.71 | 16 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $15.69 | 47.32% | $15.76 | 21 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $15.71 | 49.02% | $15.82 | 26 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $15.71 | 49.91% | $15.86 | 27 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $15.71 | 50.42% | $15.91 | 21 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $15.74 | 49.17% | $15.96 | 29 |
| 2026-12-31 | 49 天 | $15.75 | 48.52% | $16.00 | 14 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $15.79 | 49.75% | $16.13 | 29 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 天 | $15.84 | 53.09% | $16.46 | 16 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $15.91 | 53.06% | $16.71 | 13 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 天 | $15.97 | 52.23% | $16.92 | 22 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $16.12 | 53.46% | $17.55 | 33 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 天 | $16.24 | 54.37% | $18.41 | 12 |
| 2027-12-17 | 400 天 | $16.50 | 54.28% | $19.39 | 17 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 50.00%
- 60 天
- 49.49%
- 90 天
- 52.49%
- 180 天
- 52.83%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 5 次
- 83% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 12.6%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 6.7%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 未说明时间 | 4.5% | +2.7% | 0.61× |
| 2026-10-27 | 开盘前 | 11.1% | +13.4% | 1.20× |
| 2026-07-29 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-28 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-29 | 开盘前 | 12.4% | +6.6% | 0.53× |
| 2025-04-29 | 开盘前 | 15.9% | +0.5% | 0.03× |
| 2025-01-27 | 开盘前 | 16.4% | -10.3% | 0.63× |
| 2024-10-29 | 开盘前 | 15.4% | -6.4% | 0.42× |
| 2024-07-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-29 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-29 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。