股票 · 期权分析
SPCX 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $143.09
- 30D ATM IV
- 57.92%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- —
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +6.45
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.957
▲ +1.07 pts 较前一交易日
概览
SPCX 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 57.9%,相当于未来一个月约 ±16.6% 的波动。它在本站的历史只有 301 个交易日,不到计算百分位所需的 180 个,所以这个读数还没有和它自己的过去作比较。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 6.45 个波动率点。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 4%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 57.92%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +6.45
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.81
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.957
对应 30 天内约 ±16.6% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.6%。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 6.45 个点。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.81 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 4%。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 37 个交易日(一年窗口)
这个窗口内的历史不足,无法定位当前读数。
- IV 百分位,1 年
- —
- IV 排名,1 年
- —
- IV 百分位,2 年
- —
- IV 排名,2 年
- —
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $143.09
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $142.46
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 54.51%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 55.45%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 54.06%
- 使用的到期日数
- 21
- 总未平仓量
- 4,017,244
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.95
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 301 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 57.92% | +6.45 | 0.957 | $143.09 |
| 2026-11-09 | 56.85% | +5.81 | 0.959 | $142.07 |
| 2026-11-06 | 60.43% | +9.19 | 0.951 | $134.27 |
| 2026-11-05 | 64.83% | +8.71 | 0.893 | $123.62 |
| 2026-11-04 | 53.96% | +4.76 | 0.995 | $135.92 |
| 2026-11-03 | 56.18% | +6.20 | 0.963 | $141.31 |
| 2026-11-02 | 57.47% | +5.78 | 0.956 | $136.37 |
| 2026-10-30 | 53.37% | +5.12 | 0.997 | $134.72 |
| 2026-10-29 | 48.72% | +1.38 | 1.012 | $143.89 |
| 2026-10-28 | 48.88% | +1.92 | 1.010 | $145.23 |
| 2026-10-27 | 49.41% | +1.34 | 1.008 | $148.58 |
| 2026-10-26 | 51.08% | +1.91 | 0.988 | $146.90 |
| 2026-10-23 | 52.23% | +1.92 | 0.984 | $147.49 |
| 2026-10-22 | 53.94% | +2.81 | 0.949 | $144.75 |
| 2026-10-21 | 51.81% | +1.72 | 0.948 | $159.31 |
| 2026-10-20 | 57.60% | +1.94 | 0.873 | $147.79 |
| 2026-10-19 | 58.51% | +2.71 | 0.870 | $147.96 |
| 2026-10-16 | 59.47% | +4.56 | 0.869 | $146.03 |
| 2026-10-15 | 55.81% | +2.37 | 0.910 | $148.62 |
| 2026-10-14 | 53.85% | +2.01 | 0.925 | $152.16 |
| 2026-10-13 | 51.37% | +0.81 | 0.943 | $156.54 |
| 2026-10-09 | 48.95% | -0.22 | 0.990 | $162.57 |
| 2026-10-08 | 49.12% | +1.09 | 0.987 | $160.57 |
| 2026-10-07 | 49.29% | -1.14 | 0.975 | $167.60 |
| 2026-10-06 | 49.26% | -0.65 | 0.975 | $171.92 |
| 2026-10-05 | 49.28% | -1.68 | 0.988 | $171.09 |
| 2026-10-02 | 45.91% | -0.12 | 1.039 | $158.96 |
| 2026-10-01 | 42.65% | +1.23 | 1.093 | $148.07 |
| 2026-09-30 | 42.65% | +0.83 | 1.112 | $150.86 |
| 2026-09-29 | 45.02% | +0.22 | 1.085 | $149.24 |
| 2026-09-28 | 45.40% | +0.33 | 1.087 | $145.47 |
| 2026-09-25 | 45.22% | -0.15 | 1.097 | $148.68 |
| 2026-09-24 | 45.89% | -0.68 | 1.100 | $148.03 |
| 2026-09-23 | 48.02% | +0.27 | 1.080 | $148.36 |
| 2026-09-22 | 48.38% | -1.09 | 1.091 | $154.72 |
| 2026-09-21 | 49.60% | -0.58 | 1.077 | $151.85 |
| 2026-09-18 | 48.72% | -1.27 | 1.076 | $152.71 |
| 2025-10-22 | — | — | — | $25.75 |
| 2025-10-21 | — | — | — | $25.71 |
| 2025-10-20 | — | — | — | $25.85 |
| 2025-10-17 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-10-16 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-10-15 | — | — | — | $25.95 |
| 2025-10-14 | — | — | — | $25.93 |
| 2025-10-10 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-10-09 | — | — | — | $25.44 |
| 2025-10-08 | — | — | — | $25.29 |
| 2025-10-07 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-10-06 | — | — | — | $25.24 |
| 2025-10-03 | — | — | — | $25.16 |
| 2025-10-02 | — | — | — | $25.13 |
| 2025-10-01 | — | — | — | $25.19 |
| 2025-09-30 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-09-29 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-09-26 | — | — | — | $24.95 |
| 2025-09-25 | — | — | — | $24.98 |
| 2025-09-24 | — | — | — | $25.22 |
| 2025-09-23 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-09-22 | — | — | — | $24.85 |
| 2025-09-19 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-09-18 | — | — | — | $24.67 |
| 2025-09-17 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-09-16 | — | — | — | $24.66 |
| 2025-09-15 | — | — | — | $24.60 |
| 2025-09-12 | — | — | — | $24.65 |
| 2025-09-11 | — | — | — | $24.57 |
| 2025-09-10 | — | — | — | $24.57 |
| 2025-09-09 | — | — | — | $24.54 |
| 2025-09-08 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-09-05 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-09-04 | — | — | — | $24.58 |
| 2025-09-03 | — | — | — | $24.59 |
| 2025-09-02 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-08-29 | — | — | — | $24.63 |
| 2025-08-28 | — | — | — | $24.72 |
| 2025-08-27 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-08-26 | — | — | — | $24.59 |
| 2025-08-25 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-08-22 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-08-21 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-08-20 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-08-19 | — | — | — | $24.57 |
| 2025-08-18 | — | — | — | $24.72 |
| 2025-08-15 | — | — | — | $24.68 |
| 2025-08-14 | — | — | — | $24.70 |
| 2025-08-13 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-08-12 | — | — | — | $24.73 |
| 2025-08-11 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-08-08 | — | — | — | $24.78 |
| 2025-08-07 | — | — | — | $24.77 |
| 2025-08-06 | — | — | — | $24.94 |
| 2025-08-05 | — | — | — | $24.85 |
| 2025-08-04 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-08-01 | — | — | — | $24.80 |
| 2025-07-31 | — | — | — | $25.00 |
| 2025-07-30 | — | — | — | $25.20 |
| 2025-07-29 | — | — | — | $25.05 |
| 2025-07-28 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-07-25 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-07-24 | — | — | — | $25.39 |
| 2025-07-23 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-07-22 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-07-21 | — | — | — | $25.17 |
| 2025-07-18 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-07-17 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-07-16 | — | — | — | $25.71 |
| 2025-07-15 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-07-14 | — | — | — | $25.90 |
| 2025-07-11 | — | — | — | $25.56 |
| 2025-07-10 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-07-09 | — | — | — | $25.10 |
| 2025-07-08 | — | — | — | $25.61 |
| 2025-07-07 | — | — | — | $25.64 |
| 2025-07-03 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-07-02 | — | — | — | $25.09 |
| 2025-07-01 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-06-30 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-06-27 | — | — | — | $24.92 |
| 2025-06-26 | — | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2025-06-25 | — | — | — | $24.64 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 301 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 301 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-11) · 3d (2026-11-13) · 6d (2026-11-16)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 3d | 6d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 77.42% | 72.16% | 64.46% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 75.83% | 71.10% | 62.74% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 75.44% | 70.70% | 62.28% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 75.26% | 70.67% | 62.22% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 74.86% | 70.79% | 62.44% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 75.18% | 70.93% | 62.78% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 75.38% | 71.32% | 62.88% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 75.57% | 71.75% | 63.22% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 76.07% | 72.30% | 63.59% |
| ATM | 76.49% | 72.94% | 64.30% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 77.17% | 73.54% | 65.21% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 77.99% | 74.35% | 65.87% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 78.43% | 75.11% | 66.40% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 78.95% | 76.01% | 67.23% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 80.15% | 77.02% | 68.10% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 81.35% | 78.44% | 69.49% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 82.72% | 80.34% | 71.08% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 85.08% | 83.58% | 74.39% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 89.43% | 90.44% | 81.02% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 1 | $142.21 | 76.49% | 80.15% | 74.86% | +5.29 | +1.02 | 34 |
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $142.28 | 72.94% | 77.02% | 70.79% | +6.24 | +0.97 | 61 |
| 2026-11-16 | 6 | $142.33 | 64.30% | 68.10% | 62.44% | +5.67 | +0.97 | 49 |
| 2026-11-18 | 8 | $142.10 | 67.48% | 70.02% | 64.91% | +5.11 | -0.01 | 52 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $142.33 | 68.27% | 72.60% | 66.01% | +6.59 | +1.04 | 69 |
| 2026-11-23 | 13 | $142.28 | 64.19% | 69.03% | 60.72% | +8.31 | +0.69 | 40 |
| 2026-11-25 | 15 | $142.30 | 60.87% | 66.24% | 59.64% | +6.60 | +2.07 | 11 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $142.15 | 61.95% | 64.89% | 59.44% | +5.46 | +0.22 | 56 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $142.26 | 59.06% | 62.63% | 56.67% | +5.96 | +0.59 | 35 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $142.49 | 57.77% | 61.87% | 55.36% | +6.52 | +0.84 | 29 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $142.64 | 57.07% | 60.80% | 54.80% | +6.00 | +0.73 | 65 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $142.36 | 55.95% | 60.24% | 53.47% | +6.77 | +0.90 | 24 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $143.11 | 54.15% | 58.02% | 52.21% | +5.81 | +0.97 | 63 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $143.53 | 55.83% | 59.16% | 53.38% | +5.78 | +0.43 | 50 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $143.98 | 54.85% | 58.59% | 52.63% | +5.96 | +0.76 | 54 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $144.34 | 54.09% | 57.63% | 51.90% | +5.73 | +0.68 | 53 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $145.46 | 54.03% | 57.83% | 51.97% | +5.85 | +0.87 | 82 |
| 2027-07-16 | 248 | $145.46 | 53.82% | 57.06% | 51.59% | +5.47 | +0.50 | 46 |
| 2027-08-20 | 283 | $146.50 | 54.02% | 57.62% | 52.01% | +5.61 | +0.79 | 53 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $146.97 | 53.71% | 56.80% | 51.67% | +5.14 | +0.53 | 63 |
| 2027-10-15 | 339 | $147.48 | 52.76% | 56.86% | 51.95% | +4.91 | +1.65 | 49 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
21 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | 1 天 | $142.21 | 76.49% | $142.32 | 34 |
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $142.28 | 72.94% | $142.59 | 61 |
| 2026-11-16 | 6 天 | $142.33 | 64.30% | $142.81 | 49 |
| 2026-11-18 | 8 天 | $142.10 | 67.48% | $142.81 | 52 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $142.33 | 68.27% | $143.24 | 69 |
| 2026-11-23 | 13 天 | $142.28 | 64.19% | $143.32 | 40 |
| 2026-11-25 | 15 天 | $142.30 | 60.87% | $143.39 | 11 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $142.15 | 61.95% | $143.43 | 56 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $142.26 | 59.06% | $143.90 | 35 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $142.49 | 57.77% | $144.53 | 29 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $142.64 | 57.07% | $145.08 | 65 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $142.36 | 55.95% | $145.07 | 24 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $143.11 | 54.15% | $146.96 | 63 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $143.53 | 55.83% | $149.86 | 50 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $143.98 | 54.85% | $151.85 | 54 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $144.34 | 54.09% | $153.71 | 53 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $145.46 | 54.03% | $158.78 | 82 |
| 2027-07-16 | 248 天 | $145.46 | 53.82% | $160.50 | 46 |
| 2027-08-20 | 283 天 | $146.50 | 54.02% | $164.05 | 53 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $146.97 | 53.71% | $166.19 | 63 |
| 2027-10-15 | 339 天 | $147.48 | 52.76% | $167.83 | 49 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 57.92%
- 60 天
- 54.51%
- 90 天
- 55.45%
- 180 天
- 54.06%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 301 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 2 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 2 次中 2 次
- 100% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 7.0%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 5.8%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 未说明时间 | 5.3% | -3.8% | 0.72× |
| 2026-10-20 | 收盘后 | 8.7% | +7.8% | 0.89× |
| 2026-08-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。