股票 · 期权分析
TGT 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $160.90
- 30D ATM IV
- 46.26%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 74
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +0.88
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.821
▼ -1.27 pts 较前一交易日
概览
TGT 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 46.3%,相当于未来一个月约 ±13.3% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 74% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 0.88 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 18%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2026-11-18 开盘前。
在最近 4 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±11.3% 的波动,TGT 实际平均波动 9.1%,4 次中有 3 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 46.26%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +0.88
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.27
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.821
对应 30 天内约 ±13.3% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.9%。
高于过去一年中 74% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 0.88 个点。
高于过去一年中 24% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.27 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 18%。
高于过去一年中 19% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 74%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 57%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 78%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 60%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $160.90
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $161.66
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 38.65%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 37.98%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 37.46%
- 使用的到期日数
- 14
- 总未平仓量
- 236,821
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.70
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 335 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 46.26% | +0.88 | 0.821 | $160.90 |
| 2026-11-10 | 47.53% | +2.36 | 0.822 | $161.78 |
| 2026-11-09 | 47.92% | +2.47 | 0.812 | $165.90 |
| 2026-11-06 | 47.74% | +2.55 | 0.810 | $158.41 |
| 2026-11-05 | 48.57% | +1.67 | 0.799 | $157.95 |
| 2026-11-04 | 46.87% | +2.77 | 0.811 | $163.10 |
| 2026-11-03 | 46.24% | +3.67 | 0.816 | $154.40 |
| 2026-11-02 | 46.52% | +3.09 | 0.805 | $158.38 |
| 2026-10-30 | 46.07% | +2.43 | 0.807 | $154.38 |
| 2026-10-29 | 43.47% | +1.26 | 0.834 | $151.82 |
| 2026-10-28 | 43.35% | +1.35 | 0.821 | $148.96 |
| 2026-10-27 | 43.74% | +2.45 | 0.806 | $148.01 |
| 2026-10-26 | 42.42% | +1.30 | 0.846 | $148.53 |
| 2026-10-23 | 43.35% | +2.19 | 0.805 | $152.76 |
| 2026-10-22 | 43.06% | +0.32 | 0.821 | $158.11 |
| 2026-10-21 | 42.43% | +2.50 | 0.803 | $152.38 |
| 2026-10-20 | 40.92% | +0.64 | 0.841 | $154.00 |
| 2026-10-19 | 39.55% | +0.31 | 0.871 | $153.29 |
| 2026-10-16 | 34.34% | +1.60 | 0.985 | $154.26 |
| 2026-10-15 | 32.51% | +2.34 | 1.065 | $156.63 |
| 2026-10-14 | 31.31% | +0.90 | 1.117 | $155.31 |
| 2026-10-13 | 30.30% | +0.58 | 1.103 | $151.99 |
| 2026-10-09 | 29.65% | +1.60 | 1.168 | $153.64 |
| 2026-10-08 | 30.25% | +0.87 | 1.164 | $154.76 |
| 2026-10-07 | 29.61% | +1.96 | 1.153 | $150.92 |
| 2026-10-06 | 29.90% | +3.24 | 1.161 | $154.33 |
| 2026-10-05 | 30.00% | +1.53 | 1.154 | $152.99 |
| 2026-10-02 | 29.09% | +1.93 | 1.190 | $156.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | 29.68% | +4.11 | 1.157 | $156.70 |
| 2026-09-30 | 29.96% | +1.25 | 1.170 | $156.69 |
| 2026-09-29 | 30.54% | +0.53 | 1.147 | $156.43 |
| 2026-09-28 | 30.14% | +1.10 | 1.171 | $158.43 |
| 2026-09-25 | 29.50% | +0.22 | 1.181 | $157.45 |
| 2026-09-24 | 30.47% | +0.94 | 1.131 | $156.15 |
| 2026-09-23 | 30.06% | +0.43 | 1.163 | $156.26 |
| 2026-09-22 | 29.46% | +0.41 | 1.172 | $159.02 |
| 2026-09-21 | 28.99% | +1.20 | 1.183 | $157.71 |
| 2026-09-18 | 28.83% | +0.82 | 1.204 | $158.19 |
| 2026-09-17 | 29.84% | +1.71 | 1.179 | $159.83 |
| 2026-09-16 | 30.49% | +1.12 | 1.157 | $154.68 |
| 2026-09-15 | 30.63% | +1.10 | 1.140 | $154.40 |
| 2026-09-14 | 29.75% | +1.64 | 1.171 | $158.70 |
| 2026-09-11 | 29.26% | +0.86 | 1.185 | $155.83 |
| 2026-09-10 | 29.26% | +1.18 | 1.189 | $155.73 |
| 2026-09-09 | 29.59% | +1.19 | 1.191 | $157.52 |
| 2026-09-08 | 29.86% | +0.80 | 1.196 | $162.71 |
| 2026-09-04 | 28.15% | +1.20 | 1.228 | $164.44 |
| 2026-09-03 | 28.18% | +1.19 | 1.244 | $164.01 |
| 2026-09-02 | 29.11% | +1.22 | 1.202 | $163.36 |
| 2026-09-01 | 29.60% | +1.42 | 1.187 | $163.75 |
| 2026-08-31 | 28.42% | +1.11 | 1.222 | $160.88 |
| 2026-08-28 | 27.71% | +0.58 | 1.238 | $163.18 |
| 2026-08-27 | 28.83% | +0.89 | 1.213 | $165.93 |
| 2026-08-26 | 29.07% | +0.44 | 1.204 | $164.04 |
| 2025-10-22 | 50.80% | +3.70 | 0.773 | $94.02 |
| 2025-10-21 | 48.86% | +3.70 | 0.817 | $94.40 |
| 2025-10-20 | 46.65% | +2.18 | 0.855 | $91.53 |
| 2025-10-17 | 42.34% | +2.14 | 0.964 | $90.84 |
| 2025-10-16 | 42.60% | +2.62 | 0.984 | $90.07 |
| 2025-10-15 | 37.83% | +1.22 | 1.094 | $90.91 |
| 2025-10-14 | 36.79% | +0.58 | 1.137 | $88.96 |
| 2025-10-10 | 38.51% | +0.93 | 1.122 | $85.53 |
| 2025-10-09 | 35.36% | -0.24 | 1.171 | $89.10 |
| 2025-10-08 | 34.04% | +0.05 | 1.206 | $90.38 |
| 2025-10-07 | 35.14% | -0.32 | 1.194 | $89.27 |
| 2025-10-06 | 34.39% | -0.40 | 1.211 | $88.96 |
| 2025-10-03 | 33.06% | -0.28 | 1.247 | $89.03 |
| 2025-10-02 | 33.30% | -0.60 | 1.240 | $89.51 |
| 2025-10-01 | 33.18% | -0.48 | 1.239 | $89.14 |
| 2025-09-30 | 34.28% | -1.13 | 1.231 | $89.70 |
| 2025-09-29 | 32.30% | -0.28 | 1.262 | $88.83 |
| 2025-09-26 | 30.78% | +0.22 | 1.312 | $87.85 |
| 2025-09-25 | 32.12% | -0.49 | 1.264 | $87.14 |
| 2025-09-24 | 32.08% | -0.66 | 1.267 | $88.31 |
| 2025-09-23 | 31.50% | -0.86 | 1.285 | $87.05 |
| 2025-09-22 | 31.68% | -1.16 | 1.273 | $86.56 |
| 2025-09-19 | 31.25% | -0.71 | 1.271 | $88.13 |
| 2025-09-18 | 31.92% | +0.20 | 1.229 | $89.42 |
| 2025-09-17 | 30.86% | +0.32 | 1.242 | $88.93 |
| 2025-09-16 | 30.88% | +0.36 | 1.237 | $89.72 |
| 2025-09-15 | 30.69% | +0.04 | 1.257 | $88.56 |
| 2025-09-12 | 29.34% | -0.19 | 1.296 | $89.96 |
| 2025-09-11 | 29.57% | -0.32 | 1.277 | $91.52 |
| 2025-09-10 | 30.09% | -0.15 | 1.271 | $90.78 |
| 2025-09-09 | 29.56% | +0.62 | 1.278 | $90.91 |
| 2025-09-08 | 28.97% | +1.33 | 1.291 | $91.50 |
| 2025-09-05 | 28.66% | +1.86 | 1.284 | $93.17 |
| 2025-09-04 | 29.10% | +1.48 | 1.290 | $92.71 |
| 2025-09-03 | 30.07% | +0.56 | 1.246 | $92.35 |
| 2025-09-02 | 30.07% | +1.69 | 1.241 | $92.44 |
| 2025-08-29 | 28.06% | +1.91 | 1.317 | $95.98 |
| 2025-08-28 | 28.20% | +1.98 | 1.294 | $96.81 |
| 2025-08-27 | 28.89% | +1.46 | 1.269 | $97.96 |
| 2025-08-26 | 28.46% | +1.29 | 1.269 | $96.11 |
| 2025-08-25 | 30.76% | +0.29 | 1.182 | $97.13 |
| 2025-08-22 | 28.52% | +1.39 | 1.260 | $99.24 |
| 2025-08-21 | 28.66% | +1.69 | 1.267 | $97.06 |
| 2025-08-20 | 30.87% | +1.39 | 1.185 | $98.69 |
| 2025-08-19 | 48.84% | +3.91 | 0.847 | $105.36 |
| 2025-08-18 | 47.54% | +2.34 | 0.885 | $104.95 |
| 2025-08-15 | 48.47% | +1.99 | 0.858 | $103.02 |
| 2025-08-14 | 45.40% | +1.93 | 0.921 | $104.25 |
| 2025-08-13 | 45.45% | +3.25 | 0.912 | $105.36 |
| 2025-08-12 | 48.47% | +0.69 | 0.849 | $106.26 |
| 2025-08-11 | 48.70% | +1.49 | 0.861 | $104.01 |
| 2025-08-08 | 48.14% | +1.17 | 0.851 | $105.40 |
| 2025-08-07 | 50.06% | +0.99 | 0.838 | $105.67 |
| 2025-08-06 | 49.01% | +1.36 | 0.847 | $105.39 |
| 2025-08-05 | 49.01% | +2.16 | 0.849 | $102.43 |
| 2025-08-04 | 49.54% | +1.89 | 0.845 | $99.79 |
| 2025-08-01 | 51.97% | +1.91 | 0.816 | $99.77 |
| 2025-07-31 | 51.27% | -0.04 | 0.830 | $100.50 |
| 2025-07-30 | 52.39% | -0.87 | 0.757 | $103.14 |
| 2025-07-29 | 48.91% | +2.44 | 0.811 | $104.18 |
| 2025-07-28 | 47.71% | +3.15 | 0.823 | $106.43 |
| 2025-07-25 | 47.62% | +2.12 | 0.807 | $106.05 |
| 2025-07-24 | 48.43% | +2.13 | 0.802 | $105.82 |
| 2025-07-23 | 45.75% | +3.02 | 0.826 | $107.43 |
| 2025-07-22 | 47.34% | +2.33 | 0.808 | $106.54 |
| 2025-07-21 | 45.94% | +2.50 | 0.843 | $101.71 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 335 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-13) · 8d (2026-11-20) · 15d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 8d | 15d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 41.76% | 73.11% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 39.28% | 72.25% | 56.01% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 38.66% | 73.52% | 56.60% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 38.38% | 73.65% | 57.49% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 38.20% | 74.01% | 57.49% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 38.07% | 74.14% | 58.14% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 37.97% | 74.21% | 58.24% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 37.89% | 74.26% | 58.24% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 37.81% | 74.69% | 58.49% |
| ATM | 37.75% | 74.59% | 58.73% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 37.69% | 75.11% | 58.74% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 37.66% | 74.75% | 58.70% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 37.65% | 74.09% | 58.21% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 37.69% | 74.26% | 58.43% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 37.83% | 74.39% | 58.81% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 38.07% | 74.75% | 58.70% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 38.47% | 74.50% | 59.14% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 39.18% | 75.02% | 59.96% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 40.63% | — | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 | $161.14 | 37.75% | 37.83% | 38.20% | -0.37 | +0.27 | 10 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $161.32 | 74.59% | 74.39% | 74.01% | +0.38 | -0.39 | 26 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $161.37 | 58.73% | 58.81% | 57.49% | +1.32 | -0.58 | 24 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $161.68 | 51.11% | 51.33% | 50.51% | +0.83 | -0.19 | 13 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $161.63 | 46.80% | 46.91% | 46.09% | +0.82 | -0.30 | 14 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $161.81 | 43.57% | 44.05% | 42.89% | +1.16 | -0.10 | 16 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $161.93 | 41.18% | 42.34% | 41.32% | +1.01 | +0.64 | 10 |
| 2026-12-31 | 49 | $162.04 | 40.80% | 40.98% | 39.62% | +1.36 | -0.50 | 9 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $162.47 | 38.03% | 38.43% | 37.42% | +1.00 | -0.11 | 22 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $162.59 | 37.94% | 38.67% | 37.50% | +1.17 | +0.15 | 25 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 | $163.09 | 37.12% | 37.79% | 36.36% | +1.43 | -0.05 | 26 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $163.59 | 37.81% | 38.04% | 37.18% | +0.85 | -0.20 | 29 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 | $164.45 | 37.45% | 38.46% | 36.82% | +1.64 | +0.19 | 31 |
| 2027-12-17 | 400 | $165.71 | 37.02% | 38.47% | 36.54% | +1.93 | +0.49 | 32 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
14 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 天 | $161.14 | 37.75% | $161.17 | 10 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $161.32 | 74.59% | $162.31 | 26 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $161.37 | 58.73% | $162.52 | 24 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $161.68 | 51.11% | $162.96 | 13 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $161.63 | 46.80% | $163.04 | 14 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $161.81 | 43.57% | $163.33 | 16 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $161.93 | 41.18% | $163.52 | 10 |
| 2026-12-31 | 49 天 | $162.04 | 40.80% | $163.86 | 9 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $162.47 | 38.03% | $164.54 | 22 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $162.59 | 37.94% | $166.71 | 25 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 天 | $163.09 | 37.12% | $167.93 | 26 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $163.59 | 37.81% | $170.69 | 29 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 天 | $164.45 | 37.45% | $174.51 | 31 |
| 2027-12-17 | 400 天 | $165.71 | 37.02% | $178.63 | 32 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 46.26%
- 60 天
- 38.65%
- 90 天
- 37.98%
- 180 天
- 37.46%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 4 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 4 次中 3 次
- 75% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 11.3%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 9.1%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-20 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-03 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-11 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-19 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-20 | 开盘前 | 11.8% | -6.3% | 0.54× |
| 2025-05-21 | 开盘前 | 11.4% | -5.2% | 0.46× |
| 2025-03-04 | 开盘前 | 10.8% | -3.0% | 0.28× |
| 2024-11-20 | 开盘前 | 10.9% | -22.0% | 2.01× |
| 2024-08-21 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-22 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-05 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-15 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。