股票 · 期权分析
TMUS 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $171.03
- 30D ATM IV
- 34.00%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 84
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +3.04
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.001
▼ -0.02 pts 较前一交易日
概览
TMUS 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 34.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±9.7% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 232 个交易日中 84% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 3.04 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-19(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 7 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±5.0% 的波动,TMUS 实际平均波动 13.0%,7 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 34.00%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +3.04
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.19
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.001
对应 30 天内约 ±9.7% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.1%。
高于过去一年中 84% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 3.04 个点。
高于过去一年中 61% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.19 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 47% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 232 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 84%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 57%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 88%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 59%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $171.03
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $170.75
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 33.52%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 34.02%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 34.78%
- 使用的到期日数
- 10
- 总未平仓量
- 115,031
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.72
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 335 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 34.00% | +3.04 | 1.001 | $171.03 |
| 2026-11-10 | 34.02% | +3.79 | 1.017 | $169.08 |
| 2026-11-09 | 35.24% | +2.81 | 0.987 | $168.71 |
| 2026-11-06 | 35.21% | +3.60 | 0.999 | $162.01 |
| 2026-11-05 | 36.51% | +3.13 | 0.972 | $160.59 |
| 2026-11-04 | 35.86% | +2.27 | 1.017 | $159.17 |
| 2026-11-03 | 38.20% | +1.56 | 0.939 | $154.41 |
| 2026-11-02 | 36.43% | +1.39 | 0.993 | $160.15 |
| 2026-10-30 | 37.83% | +2.63 | 0.956 | $156.44 |
| 2026-10-29 | 36.06% | +2.80 | 0.968 | $147.29 |
| 2026-10-28 | 43.81% | +4.67 | 0.874 | $148.08 |
| 2026-10-27 | 41.57% | +3.55 | 0.890 | $146.83 |
| 2026-10-26 | 45.94% | +0.80 | 0.828 | $146.93 |
| 2026-10-23 | 40.73% | +2.95 | 0.882 | $146.54 |
| 2026-10-22 | 39.57% | +3.42 | 0.899 | $158.79 |
| 2026-10-21 | 39.17% | +2.64 | 0.882 | $153.75 |
| 2026-10-20 | 39.51% | +1.74 | 0.873 | $157.75 |
| 2026-10-19 | 37.66% | +2.34 | 0.902 | $156.09 |
| 2026-10-16 | 38.43% | +2.98 | 0.898 | $159.10 |
| 2026-10-15 | 37.63% | +2.94 | 0.895 | $157.03 |
| 2026-10-14 | 38.03% | +2.63 | 0.890 | $157.79 |
| 2026-10-13 | 39.31% | +2.18 | 0.881 | $153.73 |
| 2026-10-09 | 43.14% | +1.87 | 0.848 | $148.58 |
| 2026-10-08 | 35.53% | +2.20 | 0.886 | $171.31 |
| 2026-10-07 | 35.67% | +0.76 | 0.898 | $167.65 |
| 2026-10-06 | 36.12% | +1.94 | 0.897 | $165.93 |
| 2026-10-05 | 36.23% | +1.99 | 0.891 | $164.64 |
| 2026-10-02 | 35.02% | +0.51 | 0.925 | $163.64 |
| 2026-10-01 | 35.73% | +1.42 | 0.921 | $161.73 |
| 2026-09-30 | 35.82% | +1.53 | 0.914 | $163.08 |
| 2026-09-29 | 36.63% | +0.99 | 0.917 | $162.98 |
| 2026-09-28 | 35.47% | +0.39 | 0.945 | $166.45 |
| 2026-09-25 | 32.24% | +0.84 | 1.049 | $165.43 |
| 2026-09-24 | 31.83% | +1.25 | 1.067 | $165.35 |
| 2026-09-23 | 31.66% | +0.50 | 1.094 | $165.66 |
| 2026-09-22 | 30.49% | +0.88 | 1.124 | $162.41 |
| 2026-09-21 | 31.12% | +1.41 | 1.083 | $165.27 |
| 2026-09-18 | 30.98% | +0.95 | 1.093 | $168.18 |
| 2026-09-17 | 30.60% | +0.86 | 1.094 | $166.45 |
| 2026-09-16 | 30.99% | +0.65 | 1.073 | $176.26 |
| 2026-09-15 | 30.46% | +1.01 | 1.081 | $180.47 |
| 2026-09-14 | — | — | — | $182.90 |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — | — | $182.33 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | — | $177.16 |
| 2026-09-09 | — | — | — | $177.34 |
| 2026-09-08 | 30.30% | +2.65 | 1.047 | $181.69 |
| 2026-09-04 | — | — | — | $181.52 |
| 2026-09-03 | — | — | — | $188.02 |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — | — | $187.30 |
| 2026-09-01 | 29.27% | +0.62 | 1.070 | $182.16 |
| 2026-08-31 | — | — | — | $180.44 |
| 2026-08-28 | — | — | — | $181.37 |
| 2026-08-27 | — | — | — | $177.75 |
| 2026-08-26 | — | — | — | $179.61 |
| 2025-10-22 | 31.56% | +3.00 | 0.825 | $227.40 |
| 2025-10-21 | 29.87% | +0.74 | 0.874 | $229.08 |
| 2025-10-20 | 29.37% | +3.71 | 0.873 | $230.09 |
| 2025-10-17 | 30.92% | +2.49 | 0.859 | $229.33 |
| 2025-10-16 | 31.48% | +3.23 | 0.836 | $226.45 |
| 2025-10-15 | 31.99% | +3.22 | 0.831 | $226.65 |
| 2025-10-14 | 30.55% | +2.60 | 0.859 | $229.42 |
| 2025-10-10 | 31.22% | +3.32 | 0.858 | $228.79 |
| 2025-10-09 | 29.94% | +2.73 | 0.867 | $226.21 |
| 2025-10-08 | 30.01% | +1.96 | 0.872 | $226.58 |
| 2025-10-07 | 29.83% | +2.97 | 0.866 | $227.68 |
| 2025-10-06 | 30.86% | +1.84 | 0.841 | $224.96 |
| 2025-10-03 | 28.62% | +2.53 | 0.876 | $230.27 |
| 2025-10-02 | 28.76% | +2.52 | 0.874 | $230.14 |
| 2025-10-01 | 29.05% | +1.28 | 0.857 | $233.26 |
| 2025-09-30 | 27.84% | +2.42 | 0.869 | $239.38 |
| 2025-09-29 | 27.18% | +2.62 | 0.891 | $237.96 |
| 2025-09-26 | 27.98% | +2.66 | 0.866 | $237.47 |
| 2025-09-25 | 28.16% | +2.57 | 0.872 | $237.94 |
| 2025-09-24 | 28.42% | +2.54 | 0.866 | $238.40 |
| 2025-09-23 | 24.71% | +3.13 | 0.980 | $239.49 |
| 2025-09-22 | 24.29% | +2.93 | 1.000 | $237.44 |
| 2025-09-19 | 22.92% | +2.38 | 1.061 | $238.17 |
| 2025-09-18 | 22.89% | +2.06 | 1.075 | $238.83 |
| 2025-09-17 | 25.39% | +2.38 | 0.959 | $239.45 |
| 2025-09-16 | 22.84% | +2.30 | 1.097 | $237.62 |
| 2025-09-15 | 22.59% | +2.08 | 1.098 | $239.74 |
| 2025-09-12 | 21.77% | +2.34 | 1.124 | $241.72 |
| 2025-09-11 | 22.50% | +2.99 | 1.084 | $241.39 |
| 2025-09-10 | 22.28% | +2.41 | 1.110 | $240.38 |
| 2025-09-09 | 22.51% | +2.45 | 1.096 | $242.72 |
| 2025-09-08 | 23.58% | +3.85 | 1.076 | $242.90 |
| 2025-09-05 | 20.75% | +1.56 | 1.159 | $252.76 |
| 2025-09-04 | 20.94% | +1.74 | 1.147 | $252.12 |
| 2025-09-03 | 21.24% | +0.21 | 1.131 | $252.66 |
| 2025-09-02 | 23.74% | +4.59 | 1.029 | $255.89 |
| 2025-08-29 | 19.89% | +1.86 | 1.190 | $251.99 |
| 2025-08-28 | 19.41% | +3.41 | 1.215 | $250.56 |
| 2025-08-27 | 21.04% | +2.24 | 1.094 | $251.36 |
| 2025-08-26 | 19.76% | +2.60 | 1.151 | $251.20 |
| 2025-08-25 | 19.66% | +3.07 | 1.170 | $251.74 |
| 2025-08-22 | 19.36% | +2.49 | 1.183 | $251.95 |
| 2025-08-21 | 19.94% | +2.70 | 1.156 | $258.16 |
| 2025-08-20 | 19.83% | +2.18 | 1.172 | $259.01 |
| 2025-08-19 | 19.55% | +1.93 | 1.172 | $258.22 |
| 2025-08-18 | 19.67% | +2.80 | 1.164 | $255.18 |
| 2025-08-15 | 20.12% | +2.73 | 1.150 | $254.63 |
| 2025-08-14 | 20.13% | +2.68 | 1.149 | $250.31 |
| 2025-08-13 | 20.31% | +1.91 | 1.159 | $250.84 |
| 2025-08-12 | — | — | — | $252.28 |
| 2025-08-11 | 22.03% | +2.64 | 1.077 | $248.87 |
| 2025-08-08 | 20.70% | +3.09 | 1.133 | $244.98 |
| 2025-08-07 | 21.94% | +3.29 | 1.095 | $242.93 |
| 2025-08-06 | 22.91% | +3.00 | 1.061 | $239.22 |
| 2025-08-05 | 24.28% | +3.15 | 1.012 | $238.93 |
| 2025-08-04 | 23.40% | +3.56 | 1.043 | $241.01 |
| 2025-08-01 | 24.97% | +2.93 | 1.007 | $237.20 |
| 2025-07-31 | 24.23% | +1.51 | 1.004 | $238.41 |
| 2025-07-30 | 21.52% | +1.74 | 1.074 | $241.58 |
| 2025-07-29 | 21.20% | +3.77 | 1.089 | $239.25 |
| 2025-07-28 | 21.83% | +2.90 | 1.050 | $238.19 |
| 2025-07-25 | 20.43% | +1.43 | 1.108 | $243.55 |
| 2025-07-24 | 19.82% | +2.38 | 1.136 | $247.50 |
| 2025-07-23 | 30.19% | +1.44 | 0.895 | $233.93 |
| 2025-07-22 | 28.00% | +2.59 | 0.924 | $233.25 |
| 2025-07-21 | 28.35% | +2.43 | 0.905 | $232.62 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 335 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
8d (2026-11-20) · 22d (2026-12-04) · 29d (2026-12-11)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 8d | 22d | 29d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15Δ 看涨 | 34.17% | — | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 33.78% | 32.02% | — |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 33.67% | 32.29% | 32.85% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 34.23% | 32.38% | 33.41% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 34.63% | 32.44% | 33.72% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 34.64% | 32.56% | 33.94% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 34.65% | 33.22% | 34.12% |
| ATM | 34.98% | 34.07% | 34.25% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 35.56% | 34.47% | 34.36% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 35.77% | 34.59% | 34.50% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 35.87% | 34.70% | 34.70% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 36.14% | 34.96% | 35.23% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 36.70% | 35.44% | 35.95% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 37.52% | 36.05% | 36.21% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 38.72% | 36.90% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $171.25 | 34.98% | 36.70% | 33.67% | +3.03 | +0.21 | 10 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $170.55 | 34.07% | 35.44% | 32.29% | +3.15 | -0.21 | 7 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $170.79 | 34.25% | 35.95% | 32.85% | +3.10 | +0.15 | 6 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $170.50 | 32.77% | 34.51% | 31.80% | +2.71 | +0.39 | 14 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $171.31 | 33.59% | 34.17% | 31.50% | +2.66 | -0.75 | 17 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 | $172.28 | 34.11% | 36.03% | 33.87% | +2.16 | +0.84 | 17 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $171.98 | 34.07% | 36.24% | 33.00% | +3.25 | +0.55 | 19 |
| 2027-05-21 | 190 | $172.80 | 34.86% | 36.13% | 33.18% | +2.94 | -0.21 | 20 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $172.59 | 34.38% | 36.12% | 32.77% | +3.35 | +0.06 | 24 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 | $174.64 | 34.36% | 38.07% | 33.27% | +4.81 | +1.31 | 26 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
10 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $171.25 | 34.98% | $171.48 | 10 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $170.55 | 34.07% | $171.15 | 7 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $170.79 | 34.25% | $171.58 | 6 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $170.50 | 32.77% | $171.41 | 14 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $171.31 | 33.59% | $173.01 | 17 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 天 | $172.28 | 34.11% | $175.02 | 17 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $171.98 | 34.07% | $175.49 | 19 |
| 2027-05-21 | 190 天 | $172.80 | 34.86% | $178.35 | 20 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $172.59 | 34.38% | $178.76 | 24 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 天 | $174.64 | 34.36% | $183.58 | 26 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 34.00%
- 60 天
- 33.52%
- 90 天
- 34.02%
- 180 天
- 34.78%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 7 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 7 次中 1 次
- 14% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 5.0%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 13.0%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 收盘后 | 6.8% | -0.5% | 0.08× |
| 2026-10-22 | 未说明时间 | 2.4% | -7.7% | 3.27× |
| 2026-10-21 | 未说明时间 | 2.9% | +3.3% | 1.13× |
| 2026-07-23 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-11 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-23 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-23 | 收盘后 | 6.4% | -23.2% | 3.60× |
| 2025-04-24 | 收盘后 | 6.4% | -31.5% | 4.88× |
| 2025-01-29 | 开盘前 | 5.6% | +6.3% | 1.13× |
| 2024-10-23 | 收盘后 | 4.7% | -18.7% | 3.94× |
| 2024-07-31 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-25 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。