ETF · 期权分析
TQQQ 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $59.88
- 30D ATM IV
- 69.05%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 83
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +19.83
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.955
▼ -1.83 pts 较前一交易日
概览
TQQQ 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 69.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±19.8% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 83% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 19.83 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 5%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 69.05%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +19.83
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +3.49
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.955
对应 30 天内约 ±19.8% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.3%。
高于过去一年中 83% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 19.83 个点。
高于过去一年中 82% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 3.49 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 5%。
高于过去一年中 25% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 83%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 31%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 87%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 33%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $59.88
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $59.86
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 66.20%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 65.93%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 65.33%
- 使用的到期日数
- 14
- 总未平仓量
- 1,520,146
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.79
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 335 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 69.05% | +19.83 | 0.955 | $59.88 |
| 2026-11-10 | 70.87% | +21.44 | 0.924 | $56.56 |
| 2026-11-09 | 72.55% | +20.69 | 0.902 | $57.58 |
| 2026-11-06 | 81.25% | +24.84 | 0.878 | $52.25 |
| 2026-11-05 | 92.90% | +27.94 | 0.792 | $50.47 |
| 2026-11-04 | 63.75% | +15.65 | 0.977 | $62.24 |
| 2026-11-03 | 78.34% | +20.19 | 0.872 | $60.55 |
| 2026-11-02 | 76.82% | +23.34 | 0.882 | $59.46 |
| 2026-10-30 | 73.99% | +22.93 | 0.905 | $62.01 |
| 2026-10-29 | 60.89% | +14.73 | 0.996 | $69.26 |
| 2026-10-28 | 60.72% | +14.54 | 0.985 | $72.36 |
| 2026-10-27 | 58.37% | +15.99 | 1.027 | $71.04 |
| 2026-10-26 | 63.95% | +18.40 | 0.959 | $68.43 |
| 2026-10-23 | 70.00% | +21.21 | 0.915 | $66.29 |
| 2026-10-22 | 73.86% | +21.23 | 0.884 | $66.42 |
| 2026-10-21 | 60.18% | +17.67 | 0.977 | $72.61 |
| 2026-10-20 | 62.59% | +18.27 | 0.951 | $70.41 |
| 2026-10-19 | 60.66% | +17.70 | 0.959 | $70.64 |
| 2026-10-16 | 66.47% | +22.37 | 0.924 | $68.21 |
| 2026-10-15 | 59.89% | +15.22 | 0.947 | $73.82 |
| 2026-10-14 | 58.65% | +17.80 | 0.987 | $74.12 |
| 2026-10-13 | 53.43% | +13.44 | 1.022 | $78.81 |
| 2026-10-09 | 52.50% | +13.14 | 1.062 | $81.28 |
| 2026-10-08 | 56.45% | +13.05 | 1.001 | $80.23 |
| 2026-10-07 | 55.06% | +11.33 | 1.031 | $83.62 |
| 2026-10-06 | 54.18% | +9.03 | 1.062 | $84.25 |
| 2026-10-05 | 56.35% | +10.66 | 1.029 | $83.12 |
| 2026-10-02 | 54.66% | +12.14 | 1.060 | $81.01 |
| 2026-10-01 | 57.18% | +15.36 | 1.030 | $78.73 |
| 2026-09-30 | 56.12% | +12.16 | 1.043 | $78.03 |
| 2026-09-29 | 56.84% | +15.40 | 1.040 | $77.46 |
| 2026-09-28 | 56.18% | +10.38 | 1.032 | $77.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | 51.76% | +11.60 | 1.125 | $79.60 |
| 2026-09-24 | 55.27% | +10.26 | 1.067 | $78.58 |
| 2026-09-23 | 52.36% | +10.55 | 1.128 | $78.66 |
| 2026-09-22 | 50.37% | +8.00 | 1.146 | $80.83 |
| 2026-09-21 | 51.95% | +8.41 | 1.119 | $78.91 |
| 2026-09-18 | 48.25% | +12.72 | 1.168 | $72.64 |
| 2026-09-17 | 49.90% | +13.18 | 1.135 | $71.38 |
| 2026-09-16 | 55.15% | +17.07 | 1.063 | $67.93 |
| 2026-09-15 | 55.07% | +17.78 | 1.074 | $67.90 |
| 2026-09-14 | 54.39% | +14.95 | 1.104 | $69.27 |
| 2026-09-11 | 55.93% | +14.71 | 1.018 | $70.98 |
| 2026-09-10 | 58.36% | +15.43 | 1.050 | $69.21 |
| 2026-09-09 | 58.38% | +10.04 | 1.030 | $71.55 |
| 2026-09-08 | 56.55% | +10.76 | 1.082 | $72.16 |
| 2026-09-04 | 53.54% | +12.07 | 1.072 | $72.37 |
| 2026-09-03 | 53.66% | +11.39 | 1.030 | $72.03 |
| 2026-09-02 | 54.63% | +12.04 | 1.032 | $69.60 |
| 2026-09-01 | 51.88% | +17.28 | 1.081 | $69.15 |
| 2026-08-31 | 47.21% | +13.96 | 1.211 | $71.92 |
| 2026-08-28 | 48.20% | +10.83 | 1.170 | $71.85 |
| 2026-08-27 | 48.70% | +13.06 | 1.176 | $73.30 |
| 2026-08-26 | 57.43% | +11.09 | 1.045 | $70.47 |
| 2025-10-22 | 58.89% | +19.52 | 0.966 | $104.60 |
| 2025-10-21 | 55.76% | +14.09 | 1.008 | $107.77 |
| 2025-10-20 | 55.97% | +15.57 | 1.028 | $107.89 |
| 2025-10-17 | 65.59% | +22.88 | 0.928 | $103.99 |
| 2025-10-16 | 68.76% | +23.71 | 0.895 | $102.05 |
| 2025-10-15 | 65.42% | +17.81 | 0.930 | $103.20 |
| 2025-10-14 | 58.41% | +20.60 | 1.006 | $101.13 |
| 2025-10-10 | 66.82% | +20.49 | 0.955 | $97.07 |
| 2025-10-09 | 50.78% | +11.00 | 1.087 | $108.45 |
| 2025-10-08 | 51.45% | +10.75 | 1.061 | $108.88 |
| 2025-10-07 | 54.79% | +14.70 | 1.015 | $105.31 |
| 2025-10-06 | 52.46% | +18.31 | 1.038 | $107.04 |
| 2025-10-03 | 51.93% | +15.15 | 1.039 | $104.70 |
| 2025-10-02 | 53.09% | +14.02 | 1.013 | $106.14 |
| 2025-10-01 | 53.01% | +12.78 | 1.013 | $104.86 |
| 2025-09-30 | 49.60% | +16.26 | 1.054 | $103.40 |
| 2025-09-29 | 52.95% | +10.63 | 1.008 | $102.60 |
| 2025-09-26 | 50.32% | +12.23 | 1.057 | $101.25 |
| 2025-09-25 | 56.63% | +13.45 | 0.966 | $100.05 |
| 2025-09-24 | 50.81% | +14.38 | 1.075 | $101.41 |
| 2025-09-23 | 53.57% | +13.89 | 1.033 | $102.61 |
| 2025-09-22 | 49.93% | +11.19 | 1.073 | $104.72 |
| 2025-09-19 | 47.67% | +13.37 | 1.036 | $102.98 |
| 2025-09-18 | 47.48% | +12.15 | 1.095 | $100.98 |
| 2025-09-17 | 47.63% | +12.09 | 1.090 | $98.33 |
| 2025-09-16 | 48.35% | +13.52 | 1.079 | $98.96 |
| 2025-09-15 | 47.28% | +14.07 | 1.085 | $99.23 |
| 2025-09-12 | 45.87% | +10.74 | 1.101 | $96.76 |
| 2025-09-11 | 48.04% | +12.58 | 1.061 | $95.57 |
| 2025-09-10 | 46.44% | +12.28 | 1.102 | $93.99 |
| 2025-09-09 | 42.36% | +17.00 | 1.162 | $93.89 |
| 2025-09-08 | 45.85% | +15.64 | 1.089 | $93.13 |
| 2025-09-05 | 46.23% | +16.79 | 1.078 | $91.82 |
| 2025-09-04 | 48.24% | +16.36 | 1.016 | $91.52 |
| 2025-09-03 | 48.20% | +18.89 | 1.080 | $89.11 |
| 2025-09-02 | 50.12% | +22.88 | 1.053 | $87.08 |
| 2025-08-29 | 46.48% | +15.47 | 1.098 | $89.36 |
| 2025-08-28 | 41.86% | +15.43 | 1.177 | $92.70 |
| 2025-08-27 | 50.70% | +10.45 | 1.020 | $91.04 |
| 2025-08-26 | 46.41% | +12.99 | 1.073 | $90.63 |
| 2025-08-25 | 47.15% | +10.95 | 1.073 | $89.59 |
| 2025-08-22 | 47.63% | +11.38 | 1.049 | $90.38 |
| 2025-08-21 | 53.29% | +15.59 | 1.005 | $86.49 |
| 2025-08-20 | 52.36% | +12.15 | 1.001 | $87.71 |
| 2025-08-19 | 47.97% | +15.44 | 1.058 | $89.34 |
| 2025-08-18 | 44.63% | +11.39 | 1.099 | $93.14 |
| 2025-08-15 | 45.45% | +11.46 | 1.079 | $93.26 |
| 2025-08-14 | 43.45% | +8.70 | 1.114 | $94.60 |
| 2025-08-13 | 42.06% | +10.24 | 1.166 | $94.86 |
| 2025-08-12 | 45.17% | +10.41 | 1.099 | $94.72 |
| 2025-08-11 | 47.10% | +12.92 | 1.077 | $91.35 |
| 2025-08-08 | 39.93% | +17.89 | 1.227 | $92.16 |
| 2025-08-07 | 49.47% | +14.47 | 1.013 | $89.74 |
| 2025-08-06 | 53.04% | +11.40 | 0.968 | $88.84 |
| 2025-08-05 | 49.07% | +17.53 | 1.097 | $85.64 |
| 2025-08-04 | 44.92% | +22.29 | 1.157 | $87.46 |
| 2025-08-01 | 55.96% | +18.94 | 0.997 | $82.92 |
| 2025-07-31 | 50.61% | +10.93 | 1.012 | $88.21 |
| 2025-07-30 | 43.51% | +15.56 | 1.151 | $89.69 |
| 2025-07-29 | 48.23% | +15.43 | 1.050 | $89.38 |
| 2025-07-28 | 42.20% | +11.32 | 1.161 | $89.79 |
| 2025-07-25 | 42.26% | +10.24 | 1.157 | $88.92 |
| 2025-07-24 | 47.26% | +9.82 | 1.060 | $88.42 |
| 2025-07-23 | 46.55% | +10.18 | 1.060 | $87.84 |
| 2025-07-22 | 49.07% | +12.63 | 1.047 | $86.70 |
| 2025-07-21 | 48.38% | +11.67 | 1.060 | $88.07 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 335 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-13) · 4d (2026-11-16) · 6d (2026-11-18)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 4d | 6d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 82.44% | 53.82% | 63.96% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 81.62% | 54.96% | 64.98% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 82.15% | 56.44% | 66.53% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 83.01% | 57.73% | 67.35% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 84.26% | 58.40% | 68.33% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 85.67% | 59.08% | 70.19% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 87.05% | 59.82% | 71.20% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 88.54% | 61.00% | 73.20% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 90.11% | 62.89% | 74.55% |
| ATM | 91.77% | 64.67% | 75.56% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 93.58% | 66.32% | 79.13% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 95.49% | 67.91% | 81.11% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 97.52% | 69.51% | 82.96% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 99.77% | 72.28% | 85.43% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 102.36% | 75.47% | 87.91% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 105.53% | 78.19% | 90.61% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 109.84% | 81.51% | 95.14% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 116.30% | 84.87% | 100.41% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 130.33% | 96.79% | 110.87% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 | $59.60 | 91.77% | 102.36% | 84.26% | +18.10 | +1.54 | 27 |
| 2026-11-16 | 4 | $59.64 | 64.67% | 75.47% | 58.40% | +17.07 | +2.27 | 26 |
| 2026-11-18 | 6 | $59.63 | 75.56% | 87.91% | 68.33% | +19.58 | +2.56 | 27 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $59.63 | 80.21% | 92.01% | 71.70% | +20.31 | +1.65 | 58 |
| 2026-11-23 | 11 | $59.70 | 72.35% | 82.59% | 66.96% | +15.63 | +2.43 | 21 |
| 2026-11-25 | 13 | $59.77 | 73.05% | 85.43% | 66.75% | +18.68 | +3.04 | 23 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $59.67 | 70.87% | 82.28% | 61.80% | +20.48 | +1.17 | 47 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $59.72 | 69.07% | 81.90% | 63.95% | +17.95 | +3.86 | 59 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $59.87 | 68.97% | 82.67% | 62.66% | +20.02 | +3.69 | 58 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $59.77 | 69.40% | 81.36% | 62.41% | +18.94 | +2.49 | 52 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $60.10 | 67.06% | 80.91% | 59.28% | +21.63 | +3.03 | 42 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $59.77 | 66.07% | 76.37% | 59.43% | +16.94 | +1.84 | 109 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $59.97 | 65.83% | 73.97% | 60.73% | +13.24 | +1.52 | 60 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $60.59 | 65.13% | 74.56% | 60.61% | +13.96 | +2.45 | 61 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
14 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 天 | $59.60 | 91.77% | $59.67 | 27 |
| 2026-11-16 | 4 天 | $59.64 | 64.67% | $59.78 | 26 |
| 2026-11-18 | 6 天 | $59.63 | 75.56% | $59.92 | 27 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $59.63 | 80.21% | $60.06 | 58 |
| 2026-11-23 | 11 天 | $59.70 | 72.35% | $60.18 | 21 |
| 2026-11-25 | 13 天 | $59.77 | 73.05% | $60.35 | 23 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $59.67 | 70.87% | $60.29 | 47 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $59.72 | 69.07% | $60.59 | 59 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $59.87 | 68.97% | $61.02 | 58 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $59.77 | 69.40% | $61.21 | 52 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $60.10 | 67.06% | $61.68 | 42 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $59.77 | 66.07% | $62.11 | 109 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $59.97 | 65.83% | $64.67 | 60 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $60.59 | 65.13% | $68.73 | 61 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 69.05%
- 60 天
- 66.20%
- 90 天
- 65.93%
- 180 天
- 65.33%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。