股票 · 期权分析
TWLO 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $212.21
- 30D ATM IV
- 53.90%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 53
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +2.84
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.127
▼ -1.88 pts 较前一交易日
概览
TWLO 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 53.9%,相当于未来一个月约 ±15.5% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 247 个交易日中 53% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 2.84 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
较长期限的期权波动率更高:90 天波动率比 30 天高 13%。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-04(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±14.2% 的波动,TWLO 实际平均波动 102.6%,6 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 53.90%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +2.84
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.61
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.127
对应 30 天内约 ±15.5% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.4%。
高于过去一年中 53% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 2.84 个点。
高于过去一年中 62% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.61 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 13%。
高于过去一年中 63% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 247 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 53%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 38%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 65%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 46%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $212.21
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $214.16
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 54.38%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 60.76%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 60.59%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 47,849
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.99
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 335 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 53.90% | +2.84 | 1.127 | $212.21 |
| 2026-11-10 | 55.78% | +3.83 | 1.085 | $214.21 |
| 2026-11-09 | 57.32% | +5.89 | 1.052 | $206.64 |
| 2026-11-06 | 59.78% | +8.94 | 1.046 | $202.02 |
| 2026-11-05 | 63.31% | +5.78 | 1.017 | $200.96 |
| 2026-11-04 | 59.94% | +4.84 | 1.021 | $213.50 |
| 2026-11-03 | 63.37% | +3.37 | 1.005 | $213.77 |
| 2026-11-02 | 66.26% | +3.61 | 0.998 | $207.60 |
| 2026-10-30 | 61.83% | +3.57 | 0.972 | $205.03 |
| 2026-10-29 | 78.16% | +2.32 | 0.845 | $241.90 |
| 2026-10-28 | 77.53% | +1.11 | 0.843 | $253.77 |
| 2026-10-27 | 79.10% | +5.20 | 0.834 | $254.56 |
| 2026-10-26 | 80.86% | +2.92 | 0.824 | $263.65 |
| 2026-10-23 | 82.60% | +1.12 | 0.814 | $261.79 |
| 2026-10-22 | 83.98% | -1.11 | 0.808 | $253.63 |
| 2026-10-21 | 82.58% | +1.60 | 0.823 | $266.68 |
| 2026-10-20 | 82.73% | +1.74 | 0.797 | $258.69 |
| 2026-10-19 | 81.85% | +3.62 | 0.828 | $257.29 |
| 2026-10-16 | 82.20% | -0.80 | 0.788 | $244.37 |
| 2026-10-15 | 77.89% | +2.11 | 0.806 | $273.40 |
| 2026-10-14 | 78.34% | +1.40 | 0.795 | $271.12 |
| 2026-10-13 | 77.22% | -3.65 | 0.809 | $281.59 |
| 2026-10-09 | 78.42% | -0.96 | 0.800 | $289.47 |
| 2026-10-08 | 79.27% | -2.47 | 0.795 | $275.77 |
| 2026-10-07 | 77.94% | -3.18 | 0.809 | $273.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | 77.00% | -4.66 | 0.818 | $280.41 |
| 2026-10-05 | 74.09% | +1.64 | 0.850 | $300.91 |
| 2026-10-02 | 72.19% | -1.76 | 0.901 | $294.58 |
| 2026-10-01 | 66.33% | +0.98 | 0.997 | $301.27 |
| 2026-09-30 | 72.08% | +0.33 | 0.905 | $292.46 |
| 2026-09-29 | 69.78% | +0.18 | 0.952 | $290.78 |
| 2026-09-28 | 69.10% | +1.42 | 0.964 | $286.98 |
| 2026-09-25 | 60.95% | -2.58 | 1.084 | $275.80 |
| 2026-09-24 | 59.04% | +2.84 | 1.110 | $299.66 |
| 2026-09-23 | 56.96% | +2.08 | 1.134 | $290.70 |
| 2026-09-22 | 63.21% | +2.27 | — | $284.53 |
| 2026-09-21 | 51.63% | +3.36 | 1.163 | $266.06 |
| 2026-09-18 | 48.73% | +0.70 | 1.188 | $243.84 |
| 2026-09-17 | 48.57% | +2.27 | 1.200 | $246.24 |
| 2026-09-16 | 49.32% | +1.27 | 1.194 | $238.88 |
| 2026-09-15 | 51.55% | +1.42 | 1.171 | $242.16 |
| 2026-09-14 | 49.15% | +1.97 | 1.183 | $231.88 |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — | — | $227.35 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | — | $231.13 |
| 2026-09-09 | 50.59% | +2.58 | 1.175 | $227.19 |
| 2026-09-08 | 51.17% | +1.10 | 1.161 | $225.89 |
| 2026-09-04 | 47.13% | +3.99 | 1.255 | $232.98 |
| 2026-09-03 | — | — | — | $240.48 |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — | — | $226.75 |
| 2026-09-01 | 50.16% | +2.67 | 1.206 | $228.65 |
| 2026-08-31 | 48.15% | +1.17 | 1.236 | $235.63 |
| 2026-08-28 | 47.97% | +0.48 | 1.200 | $237.78 |
| 2026-08-27 | 47.78% | -0.57 | 1.229 | $241.34 |
| 2026-08-26 | 50.20% | +1.39 | 1.191 | $228.46 |
| 2025-10-22 | 72.11% | +0.86 | 0.779 | $109.41 |
| 2025-10-21 | 70.36% | +1.94 | 0.782 | $111.11 |
| 2025-10-20 | 68.93% | +4.47 | 0.799 | $109.02 |
| 2025-10-17 | 78.48% | -1.77 | 0.728 | $106.65 |
| 2025-10-16 | 79.93% | +0.98 | 0.742 | $106.23 |
| 2025-10-15 | 78.02% | -0.93 | 0.716 | $107.86 |
| 2025-10-14 | 78.08% | +1.46 | 0.752 | $108.10 |
| 2025-10-10 | 69.36% | +0.49 | 0.862 | $107.12 |
| 2025-10-09 | 69.27% | -1.98 | 0.819 | $113.96 |
| 2025-10-08 | 69.35% | +3.97 | 0.832 | $114.05 |
| 2025-10-07 | 68.59% | +2.08 | 0.808 | $107.55 |
| 2025-10-06 | 78.67% | +0.84 | 0.723 | $109.70 |
| 2025-10-03 | 59.38% | +2.62 | 0.931 | $102.94 |
| 2025-10-02 | 63.43% | +2.21 | 0.850 | $105.42 |
| 2025-10-01 | 57.63% | +2.36 | 0.914 | $102.70 |
| 2025-09-30 | 55.28% | +0.91 | 0.962 | $100.09 |
| 2025-09-29 | 49.35% | +2.69 | 1.071 | $104.29 |
| 2025-09-26 | 44.74% | +1.26 | 1.177 | $102.34 |
| 2025-09-25 | 55.51% | +0.77 | 0.964 | $101.33 |
| 2025-09-24 | 51.82% | +1.09 | 1.031 | $103.24 |
| 2025-09-23 | 50.13% | +0.45 | 1.096 | $103.43 |
| 2025-09-22 | 48.29% | -0.44 | 1.080 | $105.19 |
| 2025-09-19 | 45.80% | -1.17 | 1.126 | $106.50 |
| 2025-09-18 | 42.84% | -0.45 | 1.222 | $108.38 |
| 2025-09-17 | 41.33% | +2.14 | 1.239 | $103.53 |
| 2025-09-16 | 43.24% | +0.90 | 1.202 | $102.11 |
| 2025-09-15 | 41.88% | +2.16 | 1.229 | $104.48 |
| 2025-09-12 | 41.05% | +1.28 | 1.234 | $102.33 |
| 2025-09-11 | 42.02% | +0.19 | 1.231 | $102.56 |
| 2025-09-10 | 41.48% | +0.84 | 1.221 | $104.25 |
| 2025-09-09 | 41.58% | +1.46 | 1.200 | $107.00 |
| 2025-09-08 | 40.84% | +2.20 | 1.222 | $109.08 |
| 2025-09-05 | 41.27% | +4.14 | 1.184 | $108.67 |
| 2025-09-04 | 38.26% | +5.79 | 1.286 | $106.03 |
| 2025-09-03 | 41.24% | +2.43 | 1.204 | $105.24 |
| 2025-09-02 | 39.55% | +1.47 | 1.270 | $104.19 |
| 2025-08-29 | 39.80% | +0.29 | 1.237 | $105.61 |
| 2025-08-28 | 41.23% | +2.19 | 1.200 | $106.39 |
| 2025-08-27 | 42.60% | -0.35 | 1.197 | $103.15 |
| 2025-08-26 | 41.56% | -1.78 | 1.210 | $102.44 |
| 2025-08-25 | 39.84% | +2.71 | 1.248 | $104.59 |
| 2025-08-22 | 40.31% | +3.14 | 1.231 | $106.38 |
| 2025-08-21 | 42.13% | +2.47 | 1.167 | $100.97 |
| 2025-08-20 | 41.70% | +2.32 | 1.172 | $101.94 |
| 2025-08-19 | 40.82% | +1.22 | 1.199 | $103.33 |
| 2025-08-18 | 39.59% | +1.35 | 1.212 | $105.05 |
| 2025-08-15 | 38.71% | +1.49 | 1.251 | $105.67 |
| 2025-08-14 | 41.55% | +2.98 | 1.161 | $100.84 |
| 2025-08-13 | 41.84% | +0.94 | 1.157 | $101.71 |
| 2025-08-12 | 39.75% | +1.57 | 1.191 | $95.23 |
| 2025-08-11 | 41.42% | +2.27 | 1.142 | $92.44 |
| 2025-08-08 | 40.49% | +0.79 | 1.089 | $98.67 |
| 2025-08-07 | 73.77% | +1.20 | 0.735 | $122.39 |
| 2025-08-06 | 68.98% | +4.09 | 0.801 | $130.22 |
| 2025-08-05 | 66.72% | +4.46 | 0.838 | $124.65 |
| 2025-08-04 | 65.12% | +4.50 | 0.757 | $125.32 |
| 2025-08-01 | 68.20% | +1.55 | 0.802 | $121.16 |
| 2025-07-31 | 62.05% | +2.36 | 0.810 | $129.00 |
| 2025-07-30 | 59.21% | +1.27 | 0.832 | $130.92 |
| 2025-07-29 | 60.25% | +0.65 | 0.799 | $129.85 |
| 2025-07-28 | 59.55% | +2.08 | 0.786 | $131.51 |
| 2025-07-25 | 62.11% | +1.63 | 0.758 | $131.06 |
| 2025-07-24 | 62.18% | +3.92 | 0.778 | $131.67 |
| 2025-07-23 | 64.18% | +1.16 | 0.739 | $132.70 |
| 2025-07-22 | 64.45% | -1.78 | 0.744 | $131.00 |
| 2025-07-21 | 64.97% | +6.36 | 0.745 | $131.10 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 335 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
8d (2026-11-20) · 15d (2026-11-27) · 22d (2026-12-04)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 8d | 15d | 22d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20Δ 看涨 | 57.59% | 52.50% | 53.23% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 57.64% | 53.49% | 53.33% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 57.19% | 53.53% | 53.58% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 57.39% | 53.23% | 53.96% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 57.82% | 53.38% | 53.93% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 57.92% | 54.65% | 53.72% |
| ATM | 58.55% | 53.68% | 54.12% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 59.87% | 54.53% | 54.47% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 59.42% | 55.45% | 54.70% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 61.12% | 56.01% | 54.88% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 60.66% | 56.44% | 56.65% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 61.59% | 57.47% | 57.01% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 62.30% | 58.11% | 57.14% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | — | 57.63% | 58.56% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $213.30 | 58.55% | 61.59% | 57.64% | +3.95 | +1.06 | 15 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $213.60 | 53.68% | 57.47% | 53.49% | +3.98 | +1.80 | 17 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $213.70 | 54.12% | 57.01% | 53.33% | +3.67 | +1.05 | 13 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $214.16 | 54.01% | 55.63% | 53.13% | +2.50 | +0.37 | 13 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $214.12 | 53.39% | 57.37% | 52.92% | +4.45 | +1.76 | 17 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $214.77 | 53.66% | 58.62% | 52.69% | +5.93 | +2.00 | 12 |
| 2026-12-31 | 49 | $214.95 | 53.96% | 56.63% | 53.29% | +3.34 | +1.00 | 13 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $214.43 | 54.50% | 56.55% | 53.32% | +3.23 | +0.43 | 22 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 | $215.30 | 62.08% | 64.77% | 60.39% | +4.39 | +0.50 | 29 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $216.75 | 60.33% | 63.26% | 59.12% | +4.14 | +0.86 | 34 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 | $217.61 | 59.83% | 62.10% | 58.18% | +3.92 | +0.31 | 37 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $219.49 | 61.39% | 63.87% | 60.16% | +3.72 | +0.62 | 43 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 | $222.08 | 62.04% | 64.30% | 60.47% | +3.82 | +0.34 | 41 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $213.30 | 58.55% | $214.10 | 15 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $213.60 | 53.68% | $214.87 | 17 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $213.70 | 54.12% | $215.59 | 13 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $214.16 | 54.01% | $216.66 | 13 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $214.12 | 53.39% | $217.15 | 17 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $214.77 | 53.66% | $218.36 | 12 |
| 2026-12-31 | 49 天 | $214.95 | 53.96% | $219.19 | 13 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $214.43 | 54.50% | $220.09 | 22 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 天 | $215.30 | 62.08% | $226.85 | 29 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $216.75 | 60.33% | $230.92 | 34 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 天 | $217.61 | 59.83% | $234.79 | 37 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $219.49 | 61.39% | $245.51 | 43 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 天 | $222.08 | 62.04% | $261.38 | 41 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 53.90%
- 60 天
- 54.38%
- 90 天
- 60.76%
- 180 天
- 60.59%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 1 次
- 17% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 14.2%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 102.6%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 收盘后 | 16.7% | -15.2% | 0.92× |
| 2026-08-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-12 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-07 | 收盘后 | 17.2% | +86.7% | 5.04× |
| 2025-05-01 | 收盘后 | 16.5% | +133.4% | 8.07× |
| 2025-02-13 | 收盘后 | 13.2% | +55.1% | 4.17× |
| 2025-01-23 | 收盘后 | 10.5% | +101.5% | 9.62× |
| 2024-10-30 | 收盘后 | 11.3% | +223.7% | 19.89× |
| 2024-08-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-14 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-08 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-08 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。