股票 · 期权分析
TXN 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $300.52
- 30D ATM IV
- 46.93%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 88
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +5.59
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.946
▲ +0.19 pts 较前一交易日
概览
TXN 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 46.9%,相当于未来一个月约 ±13.5% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 250 个交易日中 88% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 5.59 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 9% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 5%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-20(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 7 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±7.5% 的波动,TXN 实际平均波动 15.8%,7 次中有 4 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 46.93%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +5.59
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.06
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.946
对应 30 天内约 ±13.5% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.0%。
高于过去一年中 88% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 5.59 个点。
高于过去一年中 91% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.06 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 5%。
高于过去一年中 36% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 250 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 88%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 48%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 92%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 50%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $300.52
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $300.32
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 43.09%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 44.38%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 44.30%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 185,809
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.90
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 347 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 46.93% | +5.59 | 0.946 | $300.52 |
| 2026-11-09 | 46.73% | +5.69 | 0.958 | $295.73 |
| 2026-11-06 | 49.68% | +6.22 | 0.931 | $277.36 |
| 2026-11-05 | 52.12% | +5.87 | 0.902 | $278.15 |
| 2026-11-04 | 43.06% | +3.73 | 0.971 | $311.49 |
| 2026-11-03 | 44.05% | +3.16 | 0.954 | $312.49 |
| 2026-11-02 | 43.98% | +2.53 | 0.953 | $302.02 |
| 2026-10-30 | 42.02% | +4.36 | 0.971 | $300.84 |
| 2026-10-29 | 38.85% | +2.55 | 0.971 | $312.94 |
| 2026-10-28 | 38.30% | +1.95 | 0.995 | $309.83 |
| 2026-10-27 | 39.31% | +3.12 | 0.987 | $308.91 |
| 2026-10-26 | 39.99% | +3.64 | 0.970 | $298.12 |
| 2026-10-23 | 41.29% | +3.03 | 0.940 | $284.69 |
| 2026-10-22 | 42.81% | +2.12 | 0.921 | $279.50 |
| 2026-10-21 | 48.54% | +0.72 | 0.851 | $284.65 |
| 2026-10-20 | 48.41% | +2.77 | 0.847 | $277.78 |
| 2026-10-19 | 48.44% | +2.91 | 0.855 | $276.15 |
| 2026-10-16 | 50.95% | +1.84 | 0.826 | $276.48 |
| 2026-10-15 | 50.25% | +1.05 | 0.820 | $279.12 |
| 2026-10-14 | 50.35% | +0.79 | 0.834 | $280.65 |
| 2026-10-13 | 49.33% | +2.97 | 0.850 | $287.85 |
| 2026-10-09 | 47.29% | +0.91 | 0.863 | $283.74 |
| 2026-10-08 | 49.32% | +1.94 | 0.839 | $288.20 |
| 2026-10-07 | 45.80% | +3.65 | 0.882 | $288.98 |
| 2026-10-06 | 45.81% | +2.65 | 0.885 | $297.23 |
| 2026-10-05 | 46.42% | +0.58 | 0.880 | $294.90 |
| 2026-10-02 | 47.70% | +1.47 | 0.881 | $293.80 |
| 2026-10-01 | 48.85% | +2.31 | 0.861 | $281.31 |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.02% | +0.86 | 0.848 | $280.09 |
| 2026-09-29 | 48.70% | +2.40 | 0.878 | $281.69 |
| 2026-09-28 | 47.76% | +1.82 | 0.891 | $278.31 |
| 2026-09-25 | 46.57% | +0.97 | 0.911 | $278.07 |
| 2026-09-24 | 46.12% | +1.65 | 0.927 | $270.65 |
| 2026-09-23 | 44.51% | +1.27 | 0.962 | $272.62 |
| 2026-09-22 | 45.03% | +2.12 | 0.957 | $271.41 |
| 2026-09-21 | 43.54% | +2.43 | 1.015 | $270.87 |
| 2026-09-18 | 39.20% | +1.92 | 1.072 | $266.64 |
| 2026-09-17 | 37.30% | +1.88 | 1.122 | $258.14 |
| 2026-09-16 | 37.94% | +2.14 | 1.127 | $260.67 |
| 2026-09-15 | 38.35% | +1.86 | 1.115 | $263.43 |
| 2026-09-14 | 38.78% | +0.71 | 1.122 | $263.42 |
| 2026-09-11 | 37.74% | +1.55 | 1.124 | $268.70 |
| 2026-09-10 | 37.79% | +1.00 | 1.132 | $258.82 |
| 2026-09-09 | 38.11% | +2.21 | 1.142 | $261.59 |
| 2026-09-08 | 37.79% | +2.11 | 1.135 | $258.92 |
| 2026-09-04 | 37.00% | +1.41 | 1.142 | $258.44 |
| 2026-09-03 | 35.09% | +0.24 | 1.190 | $253.83 |
| 2026-09-02 | 36.12% | +1.86 | 1.141 | $254.80 |
| 2026-09-01 | 36.35% | +1.10 | 1.146 | $253.34 |
| 2026-08-31 | 35.43% | +1.11 | 1.159 | $260.91 |
| 2026-08-28 | 35.80% | +1.31 | 1.160 | $258.64 |
| 2026-08-26 | 37.22% | -0.43 | 1.159 | $261.77 |
| 2026-08-25 | 38.37% | +0.45 | 1.132 | $260.05 |
| 2026-08-24 | 39.67% | +0.78 | 1.125 | $258.94 |
| 2026-08-21 | 38.28% | +0.70 | 1.171 | $264.36 |
| 2026-08-20 | 38.28% | +0.04 | 1.168 | $265.60 |
| 2026-08-19 | 40.04% | -0.80 | 1.123 | $267.45 |
| 2026-08-18 | 39.16% | +0.98 | 1.169 | $272.24 |
| 2026-08-17 | 40.08% | -0.14 | 1.146 | $282.91 |
| 2025-10-22 | 31.25% | +1.55 | 0.999 | $170.71 |
| 2025-10-21 | 40.75% | +0.94 | 0.834 | $180.84 |
| 2025-10-20 | 41.03% | +3.06 | 0.838 | $179.59 |
| 2025-10-17 | 44.61% | +4.67 | 0.797 | $176.58 |
| 2025-10-16 | 47.69% | +3.94 | 0.760 | $175.48 |
| 2025-10-15 | 47.25% | +2.88 | 0.780 | $175.27 |
| 2025-10-14 | 43.64% | +3.21 | 0.812 | $173.94 |
| 2025-10-10 | 46.58% | +3.27 | 0.816 | $171.70 |
| 2025-10-09 | 43.01% | +2.15 | 0.814 | $178.96 |
| 2025-10-08 | 43.00% | +3.29 | 0.817 | $181.60 |
| 2025-10-07 | 43.18% | +4.16 | 0.808 | $177.05 |
| 2025-10-06 | 44.80% | +1.59 | 0.782 | $181.81 |
| 2025-10-03 | 41.37% | +1.74 | 0.832 | $180.32 |
| 2025-10-02 | 41.44% | +2.52 | 0.829 | $182.32 |
| 2025-10-01 | 42.02% | +1.59 | 0.808 | $180.39 |
| 2025-09-30 | 37.84% | +2.26 | 0.870 | $183.73 |
| 2025-09-29 | 38.26% | +2.98 | 0.861 | $183.23 |
| 2025-09-26 | 37.21% | +2.11 | 0.884 | $184.55 |
| 2025-09-25 | 38.05% | +1.89 | 0.882 | $182.04 |
| 2025-09-24 | 37.23% | +1.05 | 0.890 | $184.44 |
| 2025-09-23 | 35.33% | +0.61 | 0.938 | $182.04 |
| 2025-09-22 | 34.79% | +0.94 | 0.947 | $179.62 |
| 2025-09-19 | 31.00% | -0.09 | 1.080 | $179.37 |
| 2025-09-18 | 30.34% | +1.79 | 1.092 | $181.62 |
| 2025-09-17 | 29.34% | +3.22 | 1.115 | $180.30 |
| 2025-09-16 | 29.94% | -0.70 | 1.099 | $177.63 |
| 2025-09-15 | 28.96% | +2.05 | 1.139 | $178.20 |
| 2025-09-12 | 27.68% | +2.11 | 1.148 | $182.60 |
| 2025-09-11 | 27.94% | +2.26 | 1.141 | $184.35 |
| 2025-09-10 | 28.28% | +2.37 | 1.148 | $184.01 |
| 2025-09-09 | 28.44% | +3.38 | 1.119 | $185.03 |
| 2025-09-08 | 29.18% | +5.06 | 1.095 | $185.82 |
| 2025-09-05 | 27.60% | +3.30 | 1.154 | $187.93 |
| 2025-09-04 | 27.29% | +2.46 | 1.144 | $187.29 |
| 2025-09-03 | 27.20% | +3.06 | 1.141 | $195.74 |
| 2025-09-02 | 26.96% | +2.55 | 1.152 | $199.81 |
| 2025-08-29 | 24.53% | +4.56 | 1.179 | $202.48 |
| 2025-08-28 | 24.07% | +0.00 | 1.234 | $204.09 |
| 2025-08-27 | 25.76% | +2.09 | 1.168 | $205.47 |
| 2025-08-26 | 25.91% | +2.70 | 1.191 | $205.98 |
| 2025-08-25 | 24.71% | +2.25 | 1.254 | $205.97 |
| 2025-08-22 | 25.49% | +1.71 | 1.163 | $206.06 |
| 2025-08-21 | 27.66% | +3.51 | 1.116 | $200.71 |
| 2025-08-20 | 26.38% | +3.84 | 1.131 | $200.77 |
| 2025-08-19 | 26.82% | +3.12 | 1.077 | $195.94 |
| 2025-08-18 | 25.25% | +2.88 | 1.157 | $194.33 |
| 2025-08-15 | 26.17% | +2.84 | 1.115 | $194.57 |
| 2025-08-14 | 25.86% | +1.38 | 1.100 | $193.71 |
| 2025-08-13 | 27.08% | +2.82 | 1.053 | $193.29 |
| 2025-08-12 | 24.83% | +1.98 | 1.130 | $192.97 |
| 2025-08-11 | 25.28% | +2.38 | 1.110 | $183.71 |
| 2025-08-08 | 24.10% | +1.61 | 1.118 | $187.22 |
| 2025-08-07 | 25.43% | +2.01 | 1.099 | $185.91 |
| 2025-08-06 | 25.13% | +2.60 | 1.082 | $185.91 |
| 2025-08-05 | 24.68% | +7.28 | 1.119 | $185.40 |
| 2025-08-04 | 25.80% | +2.67 | 1.048 | $182.73 |
| 2025-08-01 | 27.80% | +4.23 | 1.040 | $180.86 |
| 2025-07-31 | 27.11% | +5.43 | 1.021 | $181.06 |
| 2025-07-30 | 25.57% | +2.22 | 1.010 | $189.52 |
| 2025-07-29 | 25.24% | +2.73 | 1.038 | $191.38 |
| 2025-07-28 | 24.25% | +1.82 | 1.035 | $189.25 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 347 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 347 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | — | 47.77% | 43.05% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | — | 48.02% | 43.59% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 55.40% | 48.39% | 44.05% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 56.13% | 48.63% | 44.94% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 56.47% | 49.10% | 45.15% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 57.40% | 49.36% | 45.28% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 57.91% | 50.02% | 45.80% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 58.12% | 50.20% | 46.31% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 58.63% | 50.56% | 46.74% |
| ATM | 60.05% | 51.76% | 47.46% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 60.00% | 51.73% | 47.80% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 61.06% | 52.37% | 48.32% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 62.19% | 53.28% | 48.85% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 62.22% | 53.80% | 49.68% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 62.52% | 54.40% | 50.33% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 64.41% | 55.64% | 51.46% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 66.23% | 58.27% | 53.19% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 66.32% | 61.09% | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | — | 62.55% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $299.72 | 60.05% | 62.52% | 56.47% | +6.04 | -0.55 | 19 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $299.97 | 51.76% | 54.40% | 49.10% | +5.30 | -0.01 | 27 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $300.20 | 47.46% | 50.33% | 45.15% | +5.18 | +0.28 | 22 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $300.28 | 47.34% | 48.66% | 43.63% | +5.03 | -1.20 | 17 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $300.33 | 46.87% | 49.79% | 44.12% | +5.67 | +0.08 | 21 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $300.78 | 45.87% | 48.15% | 43.18% | +4.97 | -0.21 | 29 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $301.00 | 44.82% | 49.50% | 43.68% | +5.81 | +1.77 | 17 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $302.34 | 42.65% | 46.27% | 40.75% | +5.52 | +0.86 | 32 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $301.82 | 44.88% | 48.25% | 41.97% | +6.28 | +0.23 | 34 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $302.94 | 44.42% | 47.46% | 42.15% | +5.31 | +0.39 | 23 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $303.37 | 44.28% | 47.01% | 42.18% | +4.83 | +0.32 | 42 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $304.59 | 44.34% | 47.29% | 41.63% | +5.67 | +0.12 | 39 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $306.08 | 43.83% | 47.02% | 41.59% | +5.43 | +0.47 | 37 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $299.72 | 60.05% | $300.17 | 19 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $299.97 | 51.76% | $301.08 | 27 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $300.20 | 47.46% | $301.78 | 22 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $300.28 | 47.34% | $302.50 | 17 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $300.33 | 46.87% | $303.14 | 21 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $300.78 | 45.87% | $304.09 | 29 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $301.00 | 44.82% | $304.67 | 17 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $302.34 | 42.65% | $307.36 | 32 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $301.82 | 44.88% | $310.35 | 34 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $302.94 | 44.42% | $313.69 | 23 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $303.37 | 44.28% | $316.44 | 42 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $304.59 | 44.34% | $323.10 | 39 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $306.08 | 43.83% | $332.19 | 37 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 46.93%
- 60 天
- 43.09%
- 90 天
- 44.38%
- 180 天
- 44.30%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 347 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 7 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 7 次中 4 次
- 57% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 7.5%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 15.8%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 收盘后 | 9.1% | -1.8% | 0.20× |
| 2026-10-20 | 未说明时间 | 9.4% | +2.5% | 0.26× |
| 2026-07-22 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-22 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-21 | 收盘后 | 7.8% | +56.4% | 7.25× |
| 2025-07-22 | 收盘后 | 5.9% | +31.6% | 5.37× |
| 2025-04-23 | 收盘后 | 7.2% | +6.6% | 0.91× |
| 2025-01-23 | 收盘后 | 6.2% | -7.5% | 1.21× |
| 2024-10-22 | 收盘后 | 7.0% | +4.0% | 0.57× |
| 2024-07-23 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-23 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-23 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-24 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。