股票 · 期权分析
UPST 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $19.15
- 30D ATM IV
- 63.18%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 12
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +1.54
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.088
▼ -2.09 pts 较前一交易日
概览
UPST 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 63.2%,相当于未来一个月约 ±18.1% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 249 个交易日中 12% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 1.54 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
较长期限的期权波动率更高:90 天波动率比 30 天高 9%。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-02(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±22.9% 的波动,UPST 实际平均波动 40.8%,5 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 63.18%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +1.54
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.23
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.088
对应 30 天内约 ±18.1% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.0%。
高于过去一年中 12% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 1.54 个点。
高于过去一年中 62% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.23 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 9%。
高于过去一年中 54% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 249 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 12%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 9%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 9%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 9%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $19.15
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $19.26
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 67.40%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 68.75%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 70.09%
- 使用的到期日数
- 9
- 总未平仓量
- 161,741
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.08
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 335 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 63.18% | +1.54 | 1.088 | $19.15 |
| 2026-11-10 | 65.27% | +4.05 | 1.051 | $20.41 |
| 2026-11-09 | 63.50% | +5.03 | 1.062 | $22.25 |
| 2026-11-06 | 65.31% | +4.81 | 1.067 | $21.89 |
| 2026-11-05 | 68.37% | +1.76 | 1.004 | $22.14 |
| 2026-11-04 | 62.92% | +1.53 | 1.023 | $23.38 |
| 2026-11-03 | 65.32% | +0.11 | 1.028 | $21.37 |
| 2026-11-02 | 81.64% | +2.56 | 0.874 | $21.31 |
| 2026-10-30 | 79.97% | +2.34 | 0.858 | $23.02 |
| 2026-10-29 | 73.73% | +0.29 | 0.888 | $24.84 |
| 2026-10-28 | 80.19% | +1.38 | 0.883 | $24.14 |
| 2026-10-27 | 75.28% | -0.82 | 0.896 | $23.71 |
| 2026-10-26 | 80.14% | -6.10 | 0.891 | $23.00 |
| 2026-10-23 | 77.38% | +1.82 | 0.876 | $23.78 |
| 2026-10-22 | 77.42% | +2.64 | 0.871 | $23.85 |
| 2026-10-21 | 75.41% | -2.63 | 0.884 | $23.66 |
| 2026-10-20 | 75.97% | -0.29 | 0.883 | $23.65 |
| 2026-10-19 | 77.05% | +4.07 | 0.882 | $23.25 |
| 2026-10-16 | 78.86% | -0.41 | 0.857 | $23.56 |
| 2026-10-15 | 77.86% | -3.37 | 0.859 | $24.75 |
| 2026-10-14 | 78.13% | -0.66 | 0.847 | $22.74 |
| 2026-10-13 | 76.92% | +1.37 | 0.830 | $23.83 |
| 2026-10-09 | 76.78% | +1.74 | 0.862 | $24.10 |
| 2026-10-08 | 78.70% | -4.01 | 0.882 | $24.19 |
| 2026-10-07 | 76.02% | +0.91 | 0.871 | $24.02 |
| 2026-10-06 | 72.68% | -3.18 | 0.908 | $23.86 |
| 2026-10-05 | 69.68% | +0.46 | 0.963 | $24.35 |
| 2026-10-02 | 56.08% | +0.90 | 1.195 | $22.81 |
| 2026-10-01 | 62.83% | +6.07 | 1.122 | $22.95 |
| 2026-09-30 | 60.38% | +0.03 | 1.157 | $22.99 |
| 2026-09-29 | 60.21% | -0.35 | 1.176 | $23.14 |
| 2026-09-28 | 59.34% | -0.77 | 1.172 | $23.03 |
| 2026-09-25 | 57.97% | +1.02 | 1.181 | $23.81 |
| 2026-09-24 | 58.73% | +0.71 | 1.189 | $24.64 |
| 2026-09-23 | 59.04% | -1.77 | 1.153 | $24.45 |
| 2026-09-22 | 58.08% | +2.10 | 1.168 | $25.97 |
| 2026-09-21 | 57.66% | +1.28 | 1.162 | $25.58 |
| 2026-09-18 | 57.05% | +0.93 | 1.221 | $25.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | 59.14% | -1.46 | 1.175 | $24.77 |
| 2026-09-16 | 60.16% | -0.82 | 1.202 | $24.85 |
| 2026-09-15 | 60.17% | -1.92 | 1.183 | $25.28 |
| 2026-09-14 | 62.78% | -0.68 | 1.125 | $26.10 |
| 2026-09-11 | 69.22% | +0.58 | 1.032 | $25.59 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | — | $25.10 |
| 2026-09-09 | — | — | — | $25.89 |
| 2026-09-08 | 69.79% | -0.94 | 1.035 | $26.98 |
| 2026-09-04 | 62.75% | -4.20 | 1.061 | $28.05 |
| 2026-09-03 | 60.12% | +0.93 | 1.142 | $28.52 |
| 2026-09-02 | 64.34% | -0.14 | 1.032 | $28.17 |
| 2026-09-01 | 65.13% | -4.09 | 1.060 | $27.39 |
| 2026-08-31 | 60.66% | -3.41 | 1.124 | $28.68 |
| 2026-08-28 | 65.47% | +1.28 | 1.064 | $29.08 |
| 2026-08-27 | — | — | — | $30.46 |
| 2026-08-26 | 60.30% | -1.10 | 1.128 | $30.47 |
| 2025-10-22 | 110.79% | +0.10 | 0.778 | $50.38 |
| 2025-10-21 | 110.92% | +0.83 | 0.807 | $52.36 |
| 2025-10-20 | 104.72% | +1.86 | 0.830 | $50.22 |
| 2025-10-17 | 109.77% | +0.00 | 0.785 | $46.50 |
| 2025-10-16 | 103.74% | +3.66 | 0.817 | $47.79 |
| 2025-10-15 | 107.87% | +0.58 | 0.792 | $51.07 |
| 2025-10-14 | 106.13% | +2.72 | 0.784 | $50.39 |
| 2025-10-10 | 110.94% | -3.96 | 0.768 | $48.58 |
| 2025-10-09 | 105.42% | -2.45 | 0.786 | $52.37 |
| 2025-10-08 | 106.83% | -7.37 | 0.777 | $51.76 |
| 2025-10-07 | 100.84% | -8.01 | 0.821 | $51.81 |
| 2025-10-06 | 100.48% | -4.54 | 0.826 | $52.61 |
| 2025-10-03 | 81.52% | -5.49 | 0.998 | $51.96 |
| 2025-10-02 | 77.02% | -3.03 | 1.069 | $52.88 |
| 2025-10-01 | 74.82% | +1.95 | 1.104 | $52.13 |
| 2025-09-30 | 73.73% | -0.48 | 1.106 | $50.80 |
| 2025-09-29 | 75.85% | -0.19 | 1.081 | $52.74 |
| 2025-09-26 | 69.97% | -4.83 | 1.131 | $57.35 |
| 2025-09-25 | 72.02% | -0.76 | 1.120 | $56.93 |
| 2025-09-24 | 71.58% | -4.91 | 1.126 | $60.61 |
| 2025-09-23 | 70.65% | +0.62 | 1.150 | $62.38 |
| 2025-09-22 | 69.30% | -5.34 | 1.171 | $64.90 |
| 2025-09-19 | 68.29% | -4.91 | 1.158 | $67.89 |
| 2025-09-18 | 67.39% | -3.31 | 1.169 | $68.05 |
| 2025-09-17 | 69.45% | -3.52 | 1.135 | $68.12 |
| 2025-09-16 | 70.70% | -4.05 | 1.114 | $67.17 |
| 2025-09-15 | 69.98% | -4.15 | 1.113 | $66.98 |
| 2025-09-12 | 64.64% | -3.83 | 1.167 | $63.08 |
| 2025-09-11 | 65.20% | +0.04 | 1.153 | $62.19 |
| 2025-09-10 | 70.32% | -4.12 | 1.111 | $62.42 |
| 2025-09-09 | 67.85% | +2.47 | 1.108 | $68.92 |
| 2025-09-08 | 63.96% | +0.43 | 1.170 | $68.22 |
| 2025-09-05 | 65.27% | -0.40 | 1.138 | $66.90 |
| 2025-09-04 | 64.69% | +3.24 | 1.148 | $65.87 |
| 2025-09-03 | 65.53% | +3.73 | 1.130 | $64.46 |
| 2025-09-02 | 67.19% | +0.33 | 1.118 | $69.17 |
| 2025-08-29 | 65.19% | +2.58 | 1.141 | $73.28 |
| 2025-08-28 | 65.87% | +0.25 | 1.108 | $73.76 |
| 2025-08-27 | 65.75% | +2.00 | 1.104 | $69.60 |
| 2025-08-26 | 66.78% | +3.19 | 1.079 | $68.89 |
| 2025-08-25 | 62.24% | -2.30 | 1.173 | $69.15 |
| 2025-08-22 | 62.56% | +1.87 | 1.113 | $68.85 |
| 2025-08-21 | 64.24% | +6.46 | 1.078 | $63.52 |
| 2025-08-20 | 61.82% | +3.89 | 1.111 | $63.88 |
| 2025-08-19 | 61.02% | +3.33 | 1.105 | $61.59 |
| 2025-08-18 | 59.17% | +3.26 | 1.132 | $65.30 |
| 2025-08-15 | 59.71% | +3.76 | 1.141 | $64.09 |
| 2025-08-14 | 63.26% | +1.67 | 1.084 | $63.83 |
| 2025-08-13 | 58.13% | -0.15 | 1.180 | $66.83 |
| 2025-08-12 | 63.04% | -0.10 | 1.098 | $63.41 |
| 2025-08-11 | 67.76% | -1.84 | 1.056 | $63.46 |
| 2025-08-08 | 63.64% | -0.20 | 1.100 | $68.76 |
| 2025-08-07 | 70.75% | -2.65 | 1.013 | $69.53 |
| 2025-08-06 | 75.78% | -1.37 | 0.951 | $67.14 |
| 2025-08-05 | 100.18% | -5.50 | — | $82.62 |
| 2025-08-04 | 109.43% | -0.32 | — | $82.83 |
| 2025-08-01 | 106.09% | +3.03 | — | $79.22 |
| 2025-07-31 | 107.09% | +3.71 | — | $81.74 |
| 2025-07-30 | 114.58% | -2.89 | — | $83.33 |
| 2025-07-29 | 105.65% | -7.27 | 0.791 | $80.43 |
| 2025-07-28 | 100.27% | -1.69 | — | $82.30 |
| 2025-07-25 | 98.46% | -3.72 | — | $83.53 |
| 2025-07-24 | 105.60% | -3.24 | — | $82.70 |
| 2025-07-23 | 107.84% | -4.28 | — | $84.13 |
| 2025-07-22 | 104.05% | +2.95 | — | $79.99 |
| 2025-07-21 | 104.19% | +0.79 | 0.771 | $76.68 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 335 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-13) · 8d (2026-11-20) · 15d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 8d | 15d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 75.78% | 70.03% | 62.94% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 74.89% | 67.29% | 62.70% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 74.73% | 65.83% | 62.29% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 74.85% | 66.24% | 63.25% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 75.09% | 66.82% | 61.92% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 75.37% | 67.12% | 61.89% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 75.69% | 67.27% | 62.13% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 76.45% | 66.99% | 62.50% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 77.62% | 66.70% | 61.84% |
| ATM | 78.88% | 67.24% | 61.68% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 79.91% | 67.92% | 62.01% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 80.28% | 68.01% | 62.86% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 80.20% | 68.08% | 63.38% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 80.04% | 68.31% | 62.76% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 79.84% | 68.77% | 62.95% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 79.71% | 69.92% | 63.81% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 80.20% | 70.18% | 64.87% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 82.98% | 70.64% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 | $19.18 | 78.88% | 79.84% | 75.09% | +4.76 | -1.42 | 7 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $19.17 | 67.24% | 68.77% | 66.82% | +1.96 | +0.55 | 19 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $19.20 | 61.68% | 62.95% | 61.92% | +1.03 | +0.75 | 17 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $19.22 | 63.49% | 66.55% | 63.51% | +3.03 | +1.54 | 12 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $19.26 | 62.88% | 64.85% | 63.37% | +1.49 | +1.23 | 13 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 | $19.52 | 68.99% | 71.56% | 68.93% | +2.63 | +1.25 | 11 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $19.48 | 69.96% | 70.91% | 68.45% | +2.46 | -0.28 | 14 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 | $19.72 | 66.27% | 72.23% | 67.55% | +4.68 | +3.62 | 12 |
| 2027-05-21 | 190 | $19.80 | 71.30% | 72.45% | 70.67% | +1.78 | +0.26 | 17 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
9 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 天 | $19.18 | 78.88% | $19.19 | 7 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $19.17 | 67.24% | $19.26 | 19 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $19.20 | 61.68% | $19.35 | 17 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $19.22 | 63.49% | $19.45 | 12 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $19.26 | 62.88% | $19.56 | 13 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 天 | $19.52 | 68.99% | $20.83 | 11 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $19.48 | 69.96% | $21.21 | 14 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 天 | $19.72 | 66.27% | $21.65 | 12 |
| 2027-05-21 | 190 天 | $19.80 | 71.30% | $22.60 | 17 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 63.18%
- 60 天
- 67.40%
- 90 天
- 68.75%
- 180 天
- 70.09%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 1 次
- 20% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 22.9%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 40.8%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 开盘前 | 17.0% | +0.3% | 0.02× |
| 2026-08-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-10 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-05 | 收盘后 | 22.9% | -63.1% | 2.76× |
| 2025-05-06 | 收盘后 | 25.0% | -40.7% | 1.63× |
| 2025-02-11 | 收盘后 | 27.2% | -54.8% | 2.01× |
| 2024-11-07 | 收盘后 | 22.5% | -45.1% | 2.00× |
| 2024-08-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-13 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。