ETF · 期权分析
USO 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $146.07
- 30D ATM IV
- 47.53%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 85
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- -2.62
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.998
▼ -2.29 pts 较前一交易日
概览
USO 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 47.5%,相当于未来一个月约 ±13.6% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 249 个交易日中 85% 的读数。
它的 25-delta call 比 put 的隐含波动率高 2.62 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 47.53%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- -2.62
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.06
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.998
对应 30 天内约 ±13.6% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.0%。
高于过去一年中 85% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，call 比 put的隐含波动率高 2.62 个点。
高于过去一年中 17% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.06 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 36% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 249 个交易日(一年窗口)
24.6%69.1%
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 85%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 52%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 88%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 52%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $146.07
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $146.24
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 47.79%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 47.42%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 45.73%
- 使用的到期日数
- 18
- 总未平仓量
- 1,097,343
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.10
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 333 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 47.53% | -2.62 | 0.998 | $146.07 |
| 2026-11-10 | 49.82% | -3.05 | 0.956 | $141.45 |
| 2026-11-09 | 52.72% | -1.70 | 0.928 | $142.66 |
| 2026-11-06 | 54.92% | -5.93 | 0.918 | $148.41 |
| 2026-11-05 | 55.90% | -5.10 | 0.911 | $148.21 |
| 2026-11-04 | 54.63% | -4.26 | 0.916 | $145.41 |
| 2026-11-03 | 57.80% | -6.05 | 0.908 | $158.17 |
| 2026-11-02 | 58.13% | -4.94 | 0.916 | $156.87 |
| 2026-10-30 | 53.34% | -3.19 | 0.996 | $168.83 |
| 2026-10-29 | 51.34% | -4.16 | 0.995 | $168.19 |
| 2026-10-28 | 52.32% | +0.56 | 0.989 | $166.57 |
| 2026-10-27 | 50.45% | -3.68 | 1.015 | $163.88 |
| 2026-10-26 | 52.94% | -3.74 | 1.005 | $166.23 |
| 2026-10-23 | 55.44% | -6.56 | 0.935 | $169.53 |
| 2026-10-22 | 50.22% | -5.70 | 0.957 | $162.51 |
| 2026-10-21 | 48.29% | -4.31 | 0.960 | $159.80 |
| 2026-10-20 | 46.65% | -4.57 | 0.978 | $160.61 |
| 2026-10-19 | 45.10% | -4.09 | 1.003 | $160.81 |
| 2026-10-16 | 46.70% | -4.97 | 0.980 | $161.76 |
| 2026-10-15 | 44.72% | -3.74 | 0.993 | $157.31 |
| 2026-10-14 | 44.18% | -2.81 | 0.995 | $153.56 |
| 2026-10-13 | 45.26% | -3.56 | 0.972 | $153.09 |
| 2026-10-09 | 45.51% | -1.65 | 0.981 | $148.20 |
| 2026-10-08 | 45.56% | -1.14 | 0.984 | $147.58 |
| 2026-10-07 | 46.77% | -1.23 | 0.953 | $143.91 |
| 2026-10-06 | 46.69% | -0.27 | 0.965 | $144.91 |
| 2026-10-05 | 46.59% | +0.46 | 0.968 | $143.99 |
| 2026-10-02 | 49.69% | -0.50 | 0.944 | $147.37 |
| 2026-10-01 | 49.74% | +0.39 | 0.962 | $150.02 |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.34% | +0.42 | 0.945 | $145.66 |
| 2026-09-29 | 51.56% | +0.43 | 0.926 | $143.35 |
| 2026-09-28 | 51.82% | -2.65 | 0.944 | $150.01 |
| 2026-09-25 | 53.12% | +0.43 | 0.938 | $148.33 |
| 2026-09-24 | 52.61% | -2.39 | 0.937 | $153.09 |
| 2026-09-23 | 49.88% | +1.03 | 0.953 | $148.83 |
| 2026-09-22 | 50.16% | +1.79 | 0.957 | $144.08 |
| 2026-09-21 | 46.65% | -3.80 | 1.001 | $148.16 |
| 2026-09-18 | 46.74% | -1.89 | 1.062 | $153.82 |
| 2026-09-17 | 49.41% | -3.24 | 1.058 | $155.31 |
| 2026-09-16 | 53.35% | -4.27 | 1.007 | $156.17 |
| 2026-09-15 | 57.57% | -5.91 | 0.958 | $161.86 |
| 2026-09-14 | 54.25% | -5.78 | 0.975 | $156.66 |
| 2026-09-11 | 55.42% | -9.15 | 0.925 | $154.90 |
| 2026-09-10 | 60.79% | -13.35 | 0.869 | $158.38 |
| 2026-09-09 | 45.24% | -0.97 | 1.053 | $149.97 |
| 2026-09-08 | 44.97% | -2.16 | 1.024 | $146.03 |
| 2026-09-04 | 40.39% | -4.52 | 1.087 | $141.96 |
| 2026-09-03 | 43.52% | -5.61 | 1.035 | $142.09 |
| 2026-09-02 | 45.18% | -4.75 | 1.026 | $141.15 |
| 2026-09-01 | 44.25% | -2.75 | 1.042 | $141.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | 42.26% | -4.75 | 1.038 | $133.70 |
| 2026-08-28 | 40.29% | -4.89 | 1.082 | $129.70 |
| 2026-08-27 | 41.72% | -1.18 | 1.082 | $130.01 |
| 2025-10-22 | 32.86% | -0.61 | 1.064 | $70.63 |
| 2025-10-21 | 31.20% | +1.35 | 1.034 | $68.27 |
| 2025-10-20 | 31.97% | +2.50 | 0.999 | $67.83 |
| 2025-10-17 | 32.54% | +2.89 | 1.025 | $67.98 |
| 2025-10-16 | 33.24% | +3.61 | 1.025 | $67.81 |
| 2025-10-15 | 32.06% | +3.81 | 1.028 | $68.99 |
| 2025-10-14 | 32.93% | +3.84 | 1.011 | $69.00 |
| 2025-10-10 | 32.85% | +4.17 | 0.995 | $69.39 |
| 2025-10-09 | 28.21% | +2.23 | 1.107 | $72.51 |
| 2025-10-08 | 27.59% | +1.57 | 1.100 | $73.53 |
| 2025-10-07 | 28.19% | +1.24 | 1.056 | $73.20 |
| 2025-10-06 | 30.25% | +0.74 | 1.010 | $72.87 |
| 2025-10-03 | 31.08% | +2.11 | 1.023 | $71.71 |
| 2025-10-02 | 32.29% | +1.59 | 1.014 | $71.54 |
| 2025-10-01 | 30.71% | +0.91 | 1.039 | $73.14 |
| 2025-09-30 | 30.28% | +0.15 | 1.041 | $73.75 |
| 2025-09-29 | 30.21% | -0.38 | 1.039 | $74.59 |
| 2025-09-26 | 30.63% | -1.40 | 1.012 | $77.02 |
| 2025-09-25 | 31.05% | -1.39 | 1.013 | $76.99 |
| 2025-09-24 | 28.71% | -0.28 | 1.063 | $76.39 |
| 2025-09-23 | 27.87% | +0.32 | 1.061 | $75.05 |
| 2025-09-22 | 26.94% | +1.57 | 1.103 | $73.45 |
| 2025-09-19 | 26.45% | +0.75 | 1.105 | $73.52 |
| 2025-09-18 | 27.19% | -0.12 | 1.105 | $74.69 |
| 2025-09-17 | 27.62% | +0.12 | 1.088 | $74.97 |
| 2025-09-16 | 28.46% | -1.04 | 1.073 | $75.67 |
| 2025-09-15 | 26.85% | -0.64 | 1.111 | $74.23 |
| 2025-09-12 | 26.71% | -0.06 | 1.118 | $73.31 |
| 2025-09-11 | 27.41% | +0.25 | 1.105 | $73.00 |
| 2025-09-10 | 28.18% | -0.78 | 1.089 | $74.71 |
| 2025-09-09 | 28.31% | +0.34 | 1.081 | $73.39 |
| 2025-09-08 | 29.31% | +1.11 | 1.062 | $73.04 |
| 2025-09-05 | 30.07% | +2.32 | 1.045 | $72.63 |
| 2025-09-04 | 30.77% | +1.87 | 1.026 | $74.18 |
| 2025-09-03 | 30.98% | +1.70 | 1.001 | $74.83 |
| 2025-09-02 | 29.71% | +0.56 | 1.040 | $76.76 |
| 2025-08-29 | 28.79% | -0.15 | 1.063 | $74.84 |
| 2025-08-28 | 29.93% | -0.22 | 1.044 | $75.24 |
| 2025-08-27 | 28.63% | +0.91 | 1.059 | $74.68 |
| 2025-08-26 | 29.64% | +1.37 | 1.058 | $74.05 |
| 2025-08-25 | 27.89% | +0.83 | 1.076 | $75.75 |
| 2025-08-22 | 27.61% | +0.57 | 1.103 | $74.64 |
| 2025-08-21 | 28.44% | +0.79 | 1.068 | $74.13 |
| 2025-08-20 | 29.17% | +1.27 | 1.065 | $73.52 |
| 2025-08-19 | 29.97% | +1.29 | 1.033 | $72.30 |
| 2025-08-18 | 29.99% | +1.73 | 1.035 | $73.17 |
| 2025-08-15 | 32.31% | +1.56 | 1.013 | $72.80 |
| 2025-08-14 | 31.57% | +0.83 | 1.023 | $73.74 |
| 2025-08-13 | 29.91% | +0.99 | 1.073 | $72.46 |
| 2025-08-12 | 29.00% | +1.63 | 1.061 | $72.95 |
| 2025-08-11 | 30.14% | +2.12 | 1.027 | $73.80 |
| 2025-08-08 | 29.36% | +4.78 | 1.061 | $73.30 |
| 2025-08-07 | 30.47% | +2.25 | 1.036 | $73.42 |
| 2025-08-06 | 31.96% | +1.93 | 1.001 | $73.79 |
| 2025-08-05 | 31.67% | +0.63 | 1.013 | $75.02 |
| 2025-08-04 | 33.08% | +0.46 | 1.007 | $76.11 |
| 2025-08-01 | 35.45% | -0.69 | 0.961 | $77.46 |
| 2025-07-31 | 33.40% | -1.62 | 0.954 | $79.59 |
| 2025-07-30 | 41.93% | -4.88 | 0.767 | $81.04 |
| 2025-07-29 | 32.42% | -2.33 | 0.988 | $79.80 |
| 2025-07-28 | 30.10% | -0.36 | 1.023 | $77.17 |
| 2025-07-25 | 27.52% | +0.75 | 1.085 | $74.85 |
| 2025-07-24 | 27.88% | +0.92 | 1.075 | $76.09 |
| 2025-07-23 | 27.59% | +1.91 | 1.092 | $75.28 |
| 2025-07-22 | 27.81% | +2.54 | 1.115 | $75.35 |
| 2025-07-21 | 28.37% | +1.73 | 1.054 | $75.59 |
| 2025-07-18 | 27.36% | +1.54 | 1.094 | $75.93 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 333 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 333 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-13) · 6d (2026-11-18) · 8d (2026-11-20)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 6d | 8d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 61.80% | 66.28% | 68.62% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 54.86% | 55.22% | 58.07% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 51.77% | 49.94% | 52.92% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 51.31% | 47.01% | 50.12% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 47.81% | 45.47% | 48.52% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 47.31% | 43.15% | 46.88% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 46.35% | 42.23% | 45.92% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 45.53% | 41.57% | 45.02% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 44.50% | 41.10% | 44.32% |
| ATM | 44.52% | 40.86% | 43.87% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 44.62% | 40.75% | 44.11% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 44.25% | 40.37% | 44.01% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 43.83% | 40.22% | 43.92% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 45.12% | 40.88% | 44.32% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 45.57% | 41.71% | 44.84% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 46.46% | 42.33% | 45.86% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 47.55% | 44.23% | 46.96% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 50.22% | 46.19% | 48.91% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 54.71% | 48.89% | 52.16% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 | $146.19 | 44.52% | 45.57% | 47.81% | -2.24 | +2.17 | 43 |
| 2026-11-18 | 6 | $146.21 | 40.86% | 41.71% | 45.47% | -3.77 | +2.73 | 54 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $146.27 | 43.87% | 44.84% | 48.52% | -3.67 | +2.81 | 87 |
| 2026-11-25 | 13 | $146.38 | 45.38% | 46.08% | 49.21% | -3.12 | +2.26 | 42 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $146.37 | 43.77% | 45.91% | 47.66% | -1.75 | +3.01 | 70 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $146.25 | 46.61% | 46.65% | 49.48% | -2.82 | +1.45 | 69 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $146.20 | 47.46% | 47.12% | 49.68% | -2.56 | +0.95 | 79 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $146.48 | 47.91% | 48.11% | 50.98% | -2.87 | +1.63 | 89 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $146.30 | 48.25% | 49.81% | 49.51% | +0.30 | +1.41 | 48 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $146.82 | 47.72% | 47.44% | 51.05% | -3.60 | +1.53 | 93 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 | $146.92 | 47.35% | 46.06% | 50.45% | -4.39 | +0.91 | 57 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $146.90 | 46.81% | 45.59% | 49.34% | -3.75 | +0.66 | 132 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 | $147.11 | 46.78% | 45.49% | 49.10% | -3.61 | +0.51 | 99 |
| 2027-05-21 | 190 | $147.59 | 45.39% | 46.03% | 46.89% | -0.85 | +1.07 | 136 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $147.77 | 45.01% | 45.25% | 46.20% | -0.94 | +0.72 | 152 |
| 2027-07-16 | 246 | $148.25 | 44.16% | 44.39% | 45.54% | -1.15 | +0.80 | 57 |
| 2027-08-20 | 281 | $148.34 | 44.20% | 44.19% | 44.99% | -0.80 | +0.39 | 106 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 | $148.53 | 43.96% | 43.48% | 44.41% | -0.93 | -0.02 | 158 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
18 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 天 | $146.19 | 44.52% | $146.23 | 43 |
| 2026-11-18 | 6 天 | $146.21 | 40.86% | $146.41 | 54 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $146.27 | 43.87% | $146.58 | 87 |
| 2026-11-25 | 13 天 | $146.38 | 45.38% | $146.91 | 42 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $146.37 | 43.77% | $146.95 | 70 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $146.25 | 46.61% | $147.21 | 69 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $146.20 | 47.46% | $147.51 | 79 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $146.48 | 47.91% | $148.14 | 89 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $146.30 | 48.25% | $148.27 | 48 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $146.82 | 47.72% | $149.78 | 93 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 天 | $146.92 | 47.35% | $151.46 | 57 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $146.90 | 46.81% | $152.61 | 132 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 天 | $147.11 | 46.78% | $154.11 | 99 |
| 2027-05-21 | 190 天 | $147.59 | 45.39% | $155.72 | 136 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $147.77 | 45.01% | $156.94 | 152 |
| 2027-07-16 | 246 天 | $148.25 | 44.16% | $158.32 | 57 |
| 2027-08-20 | 281 天 | $148.34 | 44.20% | $159.92 | 106 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 天 | $148.53 | 43.96% | $161.19 | 158 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 47.53%
- 60 天
- 47.79%
- 90 天
- 47.42%
- 180 天
- 45.73%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 333 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。