股票 · 期权分析
VLO 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $374.95
- 30D ATM IV
- 48.02%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 80
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +1.71
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.995
▼ -2.15 pts 较前一交易日
概览
VLO 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 48.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±13.8% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 250 个交易日中 80% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 1.71 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-21(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 7 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±4.3% 的波动,VLO 实际平均波动 2.4%,7 次中有 5 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 48.02%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +1.71
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.34
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.995
对应 30 天内约 ±13.8% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.0%。
高于过去一年中 80% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 1.71 个点。
高于过去一年中 22% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.34 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 51% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 250 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 80%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 48%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 85%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 48%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $374.95
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $375.73
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 48.04%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 47.76%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 47.75%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 148,391
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.98
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 333 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 48.02% | +1.71 | 0.995 | $374.95 |
| 2026-11-10 | 50.17% | +3.68 | 0.958 | $350.71 |
| 2026-11-09 | 50.17% | +3.45 | 0.956 | $356.75 |
| 2026-11-06 | 51.27% | +3.16 | 0.962 | $346.45 |
| 2026-11-05 | 55.53% | -1.15 | 0.924 | $351.23 |
| 2026-11-04 | 55.25% | +2.14 | 0.941 | $365.34 |
| 2026-11-03 | 54.73% | +0.75 | 0.950 | $387.65 |
| 2026-11-02 | 55.19% | +0.02 | 0.922 | $381.46 |
| 2026-10-30 | 54.95% | +1.77 | 0.951 | $399.66 |
| 2026-10-29 | 50.93% | -0.88 | 0.965 | $384.57 |
| 2026-10-28 | 52.79% | +0.48 | 0.951 | $388.48 |
| 2026-10-27 | 52.86% | -0.45 | 0.953 | $387.34 |
| 2026-10-26 | 51.64% | +0.18 | 0.982 | $426.76 |
| 2026-10-23 | 52.70% | +0.10 | 0.963 | $419.28 |
| 2026-10-22 | 54.08% | +1.35 | 0.944 | $426.28 |
| 2026-10-21 | 55.32% | +1.23 | 0.938 | $436.75 |
| 2026-10-20 | 55.05% | +0.25 | 0.934 | $433.42 |
| 2026-10-19 | 53.68% | +1.33 | 0.943 | $433.31 |
| 2026-10-16 | 53.34% | +0.43 | 0.977 | $444.71 |
| 2026-10-15 | 53.71% | +0.79 | 0.958 | $444.06 |
| 2026-10-14 | 54.64% | -0.43 | 0.959 | $459.78 |
| 2026-10-13 | 53.07% | +1.34 | 0.958 | $456.46 |
| 2026-10-09 | 50.50% | -1.57 | 0.991 | $433.75 |
| 2026-10-08 | 51.37% | +1.12 | 0.994 | $443.80 |
| 2026-10-07 | 49.70% | -2.24 | 0.997 | $424.10 |
| 2026-10-06 | 50.40% | +1.36 | 0.985 | $419.22 |
| 2026-10-05 | 50.91% | +0.84 | 0.986 | $419.33 |
| 2026-10-02 | 50.54% | +0.08 | 1.004 | $406.30 |
| 2026-10-01 | 51.48% | +2.01 | 0.972 | $408.46 |
| 2026-09-30 | 51.03% | -3.35 | 0.985 | $387.61 |
| 2026-09-29 | 52.45% | +2.19 | 0.964 | $387.72 |
| 2026-09-28 | 54.78% | +0.73 | 0.963 | $389.57 |
| 2026-09-25 | 54.91% | +1.17 | 0.955 | $387.18 |
| 2026-09-24 | 53.39% | +1.21 | 0.977 | $382.86 |
| 2026-09-23 | 53.35% | +1.59 | 0.965 | $375.84 |
| 2026-09-22 | 53.95% | +0.27 | 0.969 | $377.14 |
| 2026-09-21 | 53.37% | +0.36 | 0.983 | $393.27 |
| 2026-09-18 | 50.84% | +0.80 | 1.031 | $413.28 |
| 2026-09-17 | 51.44% | +0.83 | 1.025 | $412.53 |
| 2026-09-16 | 53.14% | +1.40 | 0.996 | $403.28 |
| 2026-09-15 | 53.35% | +0.80 | 0.993 | $397.04 |
| 2026-09-14 | 48.91% | +0.65 | 1.017 | $382.95 |
| 2026-09-11 | 48.35% | -0.44 | 1.029 | $390.42 |
| 2026-09-10 | 47.69% | -0.68 | 1.026 | $385.43 |
| 2026-09-09 | 47.20% | -0.67 | 1.039 | $388.95 |
| 2026-09-08 | 47.17% | -0.53 | 1.025 | $382.85 |
| 2026-09-04 | 43.82% | +0.24 | 1.074 | $370.72 |
| 2026-09-03 | 43.93% | -1.30 | 1.062 | $370.69 |
| 2026-09-02 | 44.06% | -1.07 | 1.056 | $366.09 |
| 2026-09-01 | 43.78% | +0.75 | 1.048 | $361.99 |
| 2026-08-31 | 41.90% | +0.62 | 1.060 | $358.92 |
| 2026-08-28 | 41.26% | +0.38 | 1.079 | $352.36 |
| 2026-08-27 | 41.53% | +0.17 | 1.055 | $346.59 |
| 2025-10-22 | 36.14% | +4.30 | 0.884 | $161.87 |
| 2025-10-21 | 36.09% | +4.97 | 0.906 | $157.69 |
| 2025-10-20 | 35.34% | +4.39 | 0.916 | $160.17 |
| 2025-10-17 | 36.38% | +3.90 | 0.919 | $157.77 |
| 2025-10-16 | 37.46% | +3.96 | 0.904 | $156.39 |
| 2025-10-15 | 34.32% | +4.40 | 0.962 | $160.98 |
| 2025-10-14 | 36.46% | +3.92 | 0.904 | $162.19 |
| 2025-10-10 | 36.70% | +3.52 | 0.928 | $158.02 |
| 2025-10-09 | 34.85% | +2.66 | 0.950 | $162.01 |
| 2025-10-08 | 34.54% | +3.87 | 0.956 | $162.44 |
| 2025-10-07 | 35.71% | +2.64 | 0.934 | $163.17 |
| 2025-10-06 | 34.77% | +2.56 | 0.959 | $163.42 |
| 2025-10-03 | 34.07% | +2.79 | 0.967 | $160.40 |
| 2025-10-02 | 34.42% | +2.53 | 0.960 | $164.70 |
| 2025-10-01 | 32.52% | +2.69 | 0.995 | $167.67 |
| 2025-09-30 | 32.68% | +2.88 | 0.995 | $170.26 |
| 2025-09-29 | 32.01% | +1.43 | 1.005 | $172.14 |
| 2025-09-26 | 31.90% | +1.72 | 0.998 | $175.63 |
| 2025-09-25 | 32.45% | +2.59 | 0.986 | $174.42 |
| 2025-09-24 | 32.08% | +2.49 | 0.992 | $170.83 |
| 2025-09-23 | 32.33% | +4.13 | 0.967 | $170.39 |
| 2025-09-22 | 31.20% | +2.97 | 0.973 | $166.44 |
| 2025-09-19 | 29.59% | +1.74 | 1.004 | $162.62 |
| 2025-09-18 | 29.13% | +2.06 | 1.037 | $163.85 |
| 2025-09-17 | 28.63% | +2.08 | 1.054 | $163.67 |
| 2025-09-16 | 29.57% | +2.50 | 1.038 | $162.64 |
| 2025-09-15 | 29.42% | +2.68 | 1.033 | $157.57 |
| 2025-09-12 | 28.77% | +2.23 | 1.047 | $156.72 |
| 2025-09-11 | 28.41% | +2.71 | 1.067 | $157.59 |
| 2025-09-10 | 29.57% | +2.97 | 1.033 | $158.50 |
| 2025-09-09 | 28.79% | +2.49 | 1.043 | $161.83 |
| 2025-09-08 | 28.17% | +2.59 | 1.052 | $157.36 |
| 2025-09-05 | 28.10% | +3.32 | 1.063 | $156.77 |
| 2025-09-04 | 28.46% | +2.67 | 1.050 | $155.39 |
| 2025-09-03 | 29.21% | +3.47 | 1.034 | $155.38 |
| 2025-09-02 | 26.84% | +2.90 | 1.118 | $154.28 |
| 2025-08-29 | 29.46% | +2.41 | 1.009 | $152.01 |
| 2025-08-28 | 29.42% | -0.54 | 1.047 | $151.16 |
| 2025-08-27 | 29.95% | +3.68 | 1.010 | $150.77 |
| 2025-08-26 | 33.06% | +2.88 | 0.919 | $146.95 |
| 2025-08-25 | 29.37% | +3.09 | 1.031 | $147.11 |
| 2025-08-22 | 29.51% | +3.41 | 1.018 | $145.37 |
| 2025-08-21 | 30.59% | +3.19 | 1.007 | $140.29 |
| 2025-08-20 | 29.26% | +4.96 | 1.063 | $140.51 |
| 2025-08-19 | 29.85% | +3.20 | 1.042 | $137.93 |
| 2025-08-18 | 30.08% | +2.94 | 1.008 | $136.81 |
| 2025-08-15 | 29.73% | +4.94 | 1.048 | $136.80 |
| 2025-08-14 | 31.28% | +1.94 | 1.012 | $135.82 |
| 2025-08-13 | 29.67% | +3.45 | 1.032 | $136.15 |
| 2025-08-12 | 30.21% | +4.91 | 1.017 | $133.38 |
| 2025-08-11 | 30.64% | +3.68 | 1.017 | $131.77 |
| 2025-08-08 | 30.07% | +4.91 | 1.042 | $133.29 |
| 2025-08-07 | 30.58% | +4.29 | 1.037 | $132.59 |
| 2025-08-06 | 28.67% | +5.59 | 1.082 | $133.46 |
| 2025-08-05 | 30.70% | -0.34 | 0.996 | $136.83 |
| 2025-08-04 | 31.04% | +2.07 | 1.001 | $135.04 |
| 2025-08-01 | 31.71% | +2.09 | 1.026 | $133.18 |
| 2025-07-31 | 29.31% | +4.29 | 1.042 | $137.31 |
| 2025-07-30 | 30.57% | +5.08 | 0.956 | $139.37 |
| 2025-07-29 | 28.91% | +1.96 | 1.010 | $144.73 |
| 2025-07-28 | 28.10% | +2.32 | 1.046 | $144.75 |
| 2025-07-25 | 28.33% | +2.72 | 1.032 | $141.97 |
| 2025-07-24 | 28.20% | +3.91 | 1.054 | $140.34 |
| 2025-07-23 | 29.76% | +6.71 | 1.015 | $147.54 |
| 2025-07-22 | 29.47% | -0.01 | 1.040 | $145.11 |
| 2025-07-21 | 30.72% | +3.98 | 1.028 | $146.28 |
| 2025-07-18 | 31.19% | +3.39 | 0.973 | $146.15 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 333 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 333 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-13) · 8d (2026-11-20) · 15d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 8d | 15d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | — | 55.74% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | — | 53.36% | 46.65% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | — | 52.32% | 46.24% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | — | 50.89% | 46.21% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 54.78% | 50.95% | 46.18% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 54.61% | 51.21% | 46.39% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 54.58% | 51.23% | 46.61% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 55.53% | 51.19% | 46.62% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 57.29% | 51.77% | 46.73% |
| ATM | 57.80% | 51.32% | 46.89% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 58.08% | 51.33% | 46.81% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 58.43% | 52.44% | 46.79% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 59.52% | 51.86% | 46.95% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 61.53% | 52.37% | 47.39% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 62.10% | 53.01% | 48.19% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 62.45% | 53.40% | 48.36% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | — | 54.11% | 49.43% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | — | 55.59% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 | $376.00 | 57.80% | 62.10% | 54.78% | +7.33 | +0.64 | 6 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $375.65 | 51.32% | 53.01% | 50.95% | +2.06 | +0.66 | 28 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $375.35 | 46.89% | 48.19% | 46.18% | +2.01 | +0.30 | 23 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $376.05 | 47.98% | 49.30% | 48.09% | +1.21 | +0.71 | 21 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $375.75 | 47.74% | 48.93% | 47.16% | +1.77 | +0.30 | 22 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $375.58 | 49.33% | 50.55% | 49.12% | +1.43 | +0.51 | 24 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $376.91 | 48.53% | 49.29% | 48.07% | +1.22 | +0.16 | 24 |
| 2026-12-31 | 49 | $377.26 | 47.88% | 48.36% | 46.64% | +1.72 | -0.38 | 22 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $376.98 | 48.09% | 49.21% | 47.34% | +1.87 | +0.19 | 26 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $379.24 | 47.53% | 48.92% | 47.35% | +1.57 | +0.61 | 32 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $382.67 | 47.84% | 48.41% | 47.76% | +0.65 | +0.25 | 43 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 | $385.58 | 47.31% | 47.75% | 47.36% | +0.39 | +0.25 | 37 |
| 2027-12-17 | 400 | $389.05 | 47.26% | 47.64% | 46.86% | +0.78 | -0.01 | 46 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 天 | $376.00 | 57.80% | $376.17 | 6 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $375.65 | 51.32% | $376.74 | 28 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $375.35 | 46.89% | $377.05 | 23 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $376.05 | 47.98% | $378.67 | 21 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $375.75 | 47.74% | $379.17 | 22 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $375.58 | 49.33% | $380.12 | 24 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $376.91 | 48.53% | $382.05 | 24 |
| 2026-12-31 | 49 天 | $377.26 | 47.88% | $383.11 | 22 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $376.98 | 48.09% | $384.70 | 26 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $379.24 | 47.53% | $394.44 | 32 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $382.67 | 47.84% | $409.60 | 43 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 天 | $385.58 | 47.31% | $423.90 | 37 |
| 2027-12-17 | 400 天 | $389.05 | 47.26% | $439.71 | 46 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 48.02%
- 60 天
- 48.04%
- 90 天
- 47.76%
- 180 天
- 47.75%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 333 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 7 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 7 次中 5 次
- 71% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 4.3%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 2.4%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 未说明时间 | 3.4% | +3.9% | 1.16× |
| 2026-10-22 | 开盘前 | 5.8% | -2.4% | 0.41× |
| 2026-07-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-29 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-23 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-24 | 开盘前 | 3.9% | -4.9% | 1.25× |
| 2025-04-24 | 开盘前 | 4.7% | -1.0% | 0.21× |
| 2025-04-16 | 开盘前 | 4.0% | -0.4% | 0.10× |
| 2025-01-30 | 开盘前 | 4.5% | -2.9% | 0.65× |
| 2024-10-24 | 开盘前 | 3.9% | -1.2% | 0.29× |
| 2024-07-25 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-25 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-25 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-26 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。