股票 · 期权分析
VRT 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $209.64
- 30D ATM IV
- 62.73%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 55
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +2.77
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.996
▼ -4.67 pts 较前一交易日
概览
VRT 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 62.7%,相当于未来一个月约 ±18.0% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 55% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 2.77 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-03(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 7 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±11.8% 的波动,VRT 实际平均波动 7.9%,7 次中有 5 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 62.73%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +2.77
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.68
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.996
对应 30 天内约 ±18.0% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.0%。
高于过去一年中 55% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 2.77 个点。
高于过去一年中 50% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.68 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 54% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 55%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 24%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 61%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 26%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $209.64
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $209.63
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 60.26%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 62.50%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 61.74%
- 使用的到期日数
- 14
- 总未平仓量
- 394,305
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.62
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 333 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 62.73% | +2.77 | 0.996 | $209.64 |
| 2026-11-10 | 67.40% | +7.58 | 0.935 | $194.22 |
| 2026-11-09 | 65.88% | +6.21 | 0.937 | $200.47 |
| 2026-11-06 | 71.41% | +9.46 | 0.917 | $182.86 |
| 2026-11-05 | 74.30% | +7.21 | 0.883 | $176.73 |
| 2026-11-04 | 61.62% | +4.58 | 0.964 | $205.55 |
| 2026-11-03 | 61.45% | +5.58 | 0.935 | $235.97 |
| 2026-11-02 | 62.30% | +2.20 | 0.923 | $224.24 |
| 2026-10-30 | 57.82% | +3.71 | 0.975 | $232.50 |
| 2026-10-29 | 51.52% | +2.26 | 1.035 | $245.92 |
| 2026-10-28 | 54.20% | +1.05 | 0.992 | $242.94 |
| 2026-10-27 | 66.67% | +0.66 | 0.842 | $208.56 |
| 2026-10-26 | 65.86% | +2.56 | 0.875 | $199.78 |
| 2026-10-23 | 66.54% | +1.38 | 0.870 | $194.32 |
| 2026-10-22 | 69.68% | +1.11 | 0.848 | $195.59 |
| 2026-10-21 | 65.05% | +0.13 | 0.862 | $212.15 |
| 2026-10-20 | 64.79% | +1.09 | 0.861 | $203.56 |
| 2026-10-19 | 64.57% | +1.36 | 0.852 | $206.08 |
| 2026-10-16 | 67.97% | +1.55 | 0.836 | $206.42 |
| 2026-10-15 | 64.91% | +1.98 | 0.862 | $214.75 |
| 2026-10-14 | 66.21% | -1.28 | 0.842 | $222.83 |
| 2026-10-13 | 61.82% | +3.55 | 0.880 | $237.29 |
| 2026-10-09 | 61.54% | +0.94 | 0.886 | $242.78 |
| 2026-10-08 | 65.41% | +0.94 | 0.855 | $243.73 |
| 2026-10-07 | 63.15% | -1.81 | 0.877 | $246.49 |
| 2026-10-06 | 63.10% | -0.19 | 0.895 | $253.14 |
| 2026-10-05 | 63.99% | -0.20 | 0.875 | $253.62 |
| 2026-10-02 | 64.22% | -0.36 | 0.908 | $252.18 |
| 2026-10-01 | 65.78% | +1.70 | 0.883 | $246.12 |
| 2026-09-30 | 65.91% | -0.42 | 0.878 | $241.31 |
| 2026-09-29 | 63.67% | +1.45 | 0.918 | $248.34 |
| 2026-09-28 | 63.03% | -0.33 | 0.925 | $244.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | 57.16% | -0.16 | 1.027 | $253.28 |
| 2026-09-24 | 54.17% | -0.28 | 1.090 | $245.30 |
| 2026-09-23 | 53.43% | +1.36 | 1.128 | $248.78 |
| 2026-09-22 | 56.25% | +1.09 | 1.078 | $253.46 |
| 2026-09-21 | 55.83% | +1.57 | 1.080 | $250.86 |
| 2026-09-18 | 53.53% | +1.25 | 1.113 | $249.39 |
| 2026-09-17 | 53.89% | +0.84 | 1.089 | $241.49 |
| 2026-09-16 | 56.76% | +1.13 | 1.071 | $239.41 |
| 2026-09-15 | 57.03% | +0.65 | 1.072 | $234.61 |
| 2026-09-14 | 56.21% | +1.49 | 1.092 | $237.39 |
| 2026-09-11 | 53.99% | +1.04 | 1.105 | $257.06 |
| 2026-09-10 | 57.92% | +1.11 | 1.075 | $248.13 |
| 2026-09-09 | 58.80% | -4.14 | 1.059 | $262.89 |
| 2026-09-08 | 56.93% | +1.34 | 1.069 | $290.83 |
| 2026-09-04 | 54.60% | -1.60 | 1.071 | $280.53 |
| 2026-09-03 | 52.99% | +3.08 | 1.109 | $268.83 |
| 2026-09-02 | 52.93% | +0.58 | 1.098 | $256.70 |
| 2026-09-01 | 52.23% | +0.34 | 1.122 | $255.97 |
| 2026-08-31 | 51.30% | +0.75 | 1.144 | $258.72 |
| 2026-08-28 | 50.67% | +0.88 | 1.158 | $257.08 |
| 2026-08-27 | 53.33% | +0.17 | 1.126 | $269.28 |
| 2025-10-22 | 65.45% | +3.04 | 0.895 | $171.59 |
| 2025-10-21 | 73.10% | +2.90 | 0.831 | $174.80 |
| 2025-10-20 | 75.34% | +0.83 | 0.833 | $175.73 |
| 2025-10-17 | 76.31% | +0.54 | 0.840 | $174.00 |
| 2025-10-16 | 79.85% | +3.96 | 0.849 | $177.82 |
| 2025-10-15 | 78.49% | +2.52 | 0.847 | $180.51 |
| 2025-10-14 | 74.93% | +3.41 | 0.849 | $175.15 |
| 2025-10-10 | 77.94% | +1.57 | 0.849 | $169.01 |
| 2025-10-09 | 69.50% | +3.51 | 0.906 | $168.88 |
| 2025-10-08 | 71.25% | -0.31 | 0.869 | $167.38 |
| 2025-10-07 | 71.45% | -2.85 | 0.868 | $158.87 |
| 2025-10-06 | 67.38% | +0.85 | 0.918 | $162.80 |
| 2025-10-03 | 64.72% | +0.76 | 0.938 | $160.20 |
| 2025-10-02 | 66.38% | +1.20 | 0.908 | $161.64 |
| 2025-10-01 | 65.44% | +4.39 | 0.924 | $161.59 |
| 2025-09-30 | 66.18% | +0.32 | 0.893 | $150.86 |
| 2025-09-29 | 65.24% | +1.81 | 0.902 | $143.31 |
| 2025-09-26 | 63.85% | -0.62 | 0.911 | $138.62 |
| 2025-09-25 | 59.67% | +0.06 | 0.999 | $139.77 |
| 2025-09-24 | 62.65% | -1.88 | 0.955 | $141.62 |
| 2025-09-23 | 60.56% | -0.33 | 0.978 | $142.61 |
| 2025-09-22 | 55.13% | +4.74 | 1.027 | $151.96 |
| 2025-09-19 | 52.56% | +1.15 | 1.059 | $143.60 |
| 2025-09-18 | 52.66% | +0.34 | 1.100 | $141.96 |
| 2025-09-17 | 52.11% | +0.66 | 1.074 | $136.83 |
| 2025-09-16 | 51.97% | +0.43 | 1.093 | $136.65 |
| 2025-09-15 | 51.07% | +0.63 | 1.064 | $138.26 |
| 2025-09-12 | 50.42% | +0.88 | 1.091 | $134.84 |
| 2025-09-11 | 48.13% | +0.42 | 1.139 | $135.71 |
| 2025-09-10 | 51.62% | +2.77 | 1.074 | $136.74 |
| 2025-09-09 | 50.16% | +3.53 | 1.061 | $125.58 |
| 2025-09-08 | 47.81% | +9.41 | 1.136 | $121.82 |
| 2025-09-05 | 52.01% | -1.76 | 1.034 | $124.00 |
| 2025-09-04 | 48.61% | +5.04 | 1.100 | $125.70 |
| 2025-09-03 | 46.72% | +6.21 | 1.141 | $125.59 |
| 2025-09-02 | 49.22% | +6.93 | 1.099 | $124.01 |
| 2025-08-29 | 47.51% | +4.14 | 1.122 | $127.55 |
| 2025-08-28 | 46.26% | +6.15 | 1.129 | $134.23 |
| 2025-08-27 | 51.33% | +2.09 | 1.052 | $129.31 |
| 2025-08-26 | 49.18% | +2.67 | 1.089 | $127.93 |
| 2025-08-25 | 50.89% | +4.30 | 1.055 | $125.02 |
| 2025-08-22 | 49.03% | +2.30 | 1.076 | $125.97 |
| 2025-08-21 | 50.86% | +4.46 | 1.079 | $126.58 |
| 2025-08-20 | 48.73% | +6.49 | 1.117 | $127.54 |
| 2025-08-19 | 50.15% | +3.72 | 1.072 | $129.05 |
| 2025-08-18 | 47.61% | +2.43 | 1.095 | $135.69 |
| 2025-08-15 | 47.94% | +4.87 | 1.092 | $133.07 |
| 2025-08-14 | 51.82% | +4.32 | 1.015 | $132.52 |
| 2025-08-13 | 48.64% | +1.91 | 1.061 | $137.40 |
| 2025-08-12 | 44.12% | +3.05 | 1.114 | $143.72 |
| 2025-08-11 | 47.13% | +4.27 | 1.069 | $139.83 |
| 2025-08-08 | 46.54% | +1.46 | 1.076 | $139.93 |
| 2025-08-07 | 50.19% | +1.87 | 1.029 | $139.39 |
| 2025-08-06 | 48.85% | +3.62 | 1.055 | $139.75 |
| 2025-08-05 | 51.92% | +4.81 | 1.006 | $138.76 |
| 2025-08-04 | 51.17% | +4.52 | 1.009 | $140.20 |
| 2025-08-01 | 51.51% | +2.67 | 1.030 | $141.59 |
| 2025-07-31 | 49.92% | +2.82 | 1.022 | $145.60 |
| 2025-07-30 | 51.76% | +1.43 | 0.964 | $144.17 |
| 2025-07-29 | 61.13% | +7.14 | 0.871 | $142.70 |
| 2025-07-28 | 57.42% | +1.01 | 0.911 | $142.55 |
| 2025-07-25 | 56.37% | +5.50 | 0.937 | $137.47 |
| 2025-07-24 | 60.36% | +4.77 | 0.881 | $130.87 |
| 2025-07-23 | 64.76% | +0.16 | 0.850 | $130.19 |
| 2025-07-22 | 63.42% | +2.67 | 0.863 | $125.29 |
| 2025-07-21 | 62.40% | +3.63 | 0.869 | $126.21 |
| 2025-07-18 | 61.70% | +4.38 | 0.883 | $129.06 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 333 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 333 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-13) · 8d (2026-11-20) · 15d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 8d | 15d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 82.26% | — | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 80.58% | 72.38% | 62.97% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 80.75% | 72.15% | 63.17% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 81.78% | 72.00% | 63.24% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 82.66% | 72.55% | 62.67% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 83.00% | 72.18% | 63.16% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 83.13% | 73.81% | 63.32% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 83.32% | 72.90% | 63.97% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 83.57% | 73.17% | 64.65% |
| ATM | 83.82% | 73.65% | 65.03% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 84.12% | 73.94% | 65.95% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 84.18% | 75.30% | 66.48% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 83.87% | 75.87% | 66.70% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 83.75% | 75.79% | 67.50% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 84.57% | 77.39% | 68.20% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 85.36% | 78.41% | 68.89% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 86.01% | 78.64% | 69.14% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 87.04% | 80.11% | 69.52% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 89.25% | 81.74% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 | $209.25 | 83.82% | 84.57% | 82.66% | +1.92 | -0.21 | 15 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $209.57 | 73.65% | 77.39% | 72.55% | +4.84 | +1.32 | 30 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $209.52 | 65.03% | 68.20% | 62.67% | +5.52 | +0.40 | 32 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $209.45 | 63.48% | 65.88% | 62.06% | +3.81 | +0.49 | 20 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $209.55 | 62.85% | 63.08% | 60.87% | +2.20 | -0.88 | 21 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $210.13 | 62.11% | 65.13% | 59.64% | +5.49 | +0.27 | 21 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $210.15 | 61.88% | 63.43% | 60.70% | +2.73 | +0.19 | 21 |
| 2026-12-31 | 49 | $210.80 | 61.06% | 63.60% | 59.88% | +3.72 | +0.68 | 19 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $210.81 | 60.04% | 63.27% | 57.77% | +5.50 | +0.48 | 26 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 | $211.80 | 63.04% | 63.48% | 61.03% | +2.45 | -0.78 | 18 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $212.44 | 62.56% | 65.73% | 61.06% | +4.67 | +0.84 | 33 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 | $213.64 | 61.56% | 65.06% | 59.29% | +5.77 | +0.62 | 30 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $215.38 | 61.93% | 65.09% | 60.14% | +4.95 | +0.69 | 40 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 | $218.10 | 61.60% | 64.56% | 59.72% | +4.84 | +0.54 | 43 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
14 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 天 | $209.25 | 83.82% | $209.45 | 15 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $209.57 | 73.65% | $210.82 | 30 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $209.52 | 65.03% | $211.35 | 32 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $209.45 | 63.48% | $212.01 | 20 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $209.55 | 62.85% | $212.86 | 21 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $210.13 | 62.11% | $214.16 | 21 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $210.15 | 61.88% | $214.83 | 21 |
| 2026-12-31 | 49 天 | $210.80 | 61.06% | $216.15 | 19 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $210.81 | 60.04% | $217.57 | 26 |
| 2027-02-19 | 99 天 | $211.80 | 63.04% | $223.52 | 18 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $212.44 | 62.56% | $227.40 | 33 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 天 | $213.64 | 61.56% | $231.54 | 30 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $215.38 | 61.93% | $241.39 | 40 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 天 | $218.10 | 61.60% | $256.10 | 43 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 62.73%
- 60 天
- 60.26%
- 90 天
- 62.50%
- 180 天
- 61.74%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 333 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 7 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 7 次中 5 次
- 71% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 11.8%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 7.9%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 未说明时间 | 6.6% | -14.0% | 2.11× |
| 2026-10-28 | 开盘前 | 12.8% | +16.5% | 1.29× |
| 2026-07-29 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-22 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-11 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-22 | 开盘前 | 12.7% | -1.8% | 0.14× |
| 2025-07-30 | 开盘前 | 11.3% | +1.0% | 0.09× |
| 2025-04-23 | 开盘前 | 14.1% | +8.6% | 0.61× |
| 2025-02-12 | 开盘前 | 12.4% | -9.7% | 0.79× |
| 2024-10-23 | 开盘前 | 12.8% | -3.7% | 0.29× |
| 2024-07-24 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-24 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-21 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-25 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。