股票 · 期权分析
VST 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $134.51
- 30D ATM IV
- 46.54%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 10
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +3.15
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.015
▼ -4.39 pts 较前一交易日
概览
VST 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 46.5%,相当于未来一个月约 ±13.3% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 10% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 3.15 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-06(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±10.4% 的波动,VST 实际平均波动 7.8%,6 次中有 4 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 46.54%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +3.15
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.03
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.015
对应 30 天内约 ±13.3% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.9%。
高于过去一年中 10% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 3.15 个点。
高于过去一年中 58% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率与平值大致相同。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 2%。
高于过去一年中 54% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 10%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 11%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 8%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 11%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $134.51
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $134.91
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 46.07%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 47.26%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 48.55%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 365,103
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.30
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 333 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 46.54% | +3.15 | 1.015 | $134.51 |
| 2026-11-10 | 50.93% | +3.75 | 0.959 | $131.18 |
| 2026-11-09 | 51.51% | +4.68 | 0.945 | $133.92 |
| 2026-11-06 | 54.23% | +6.64 | 0.932 | $124.80 |
| 2026-11-05 | 62.62% | +2.06 | 0.856 | $112.89 |
| 2026-11-04 | 56.82% | +2.60 | 0.910 | $120.29 |
| 2026-11-03 | 56.89% | +2.91 | 0.885 | $139.59 |
| 2026-11-02 | 56.58% | +1.93 | 0.864 | $134.61 |
| 2026-10-30 | 53.26% | +1.27 | 0.923 | $138.37 |
| 2026-10-29 | 51.97% | +2.60 | 0.915 | $140.95 |
| 2026-10-28 | 50.43% | +1.11 | 0.939 | $142.72 |
| 2026-10-27 | 50.28% | -0.54 | 0.951 | $146.66 |
| 2026-10-26 | 51.11% | +0.99 | 0.938 | $141.73 |
| 2026-10-23 | 53.66% | +1.45 | 0.902 | $140.16 |
| 2026-10-22 | 55.24% | +2.02 | 0.880 | $140.83 |
| 2026-10-21 | 51.81% | +0.02 | 0.895 | $156.14 |
| 2026-10-20 | 52.88% | +1.24 | 0.895 | $150.32 |
| 2026-10-19 | 51.63% | +0.23 | 0.894 | $149.70 |
| 2026-10-16 | 53.53% | +1.11 | 0.879 | $152.02 |
| 2026-10-15 | 54.64% | -2.26 | 0.861 | $154.17 |
| 2026-10-14 | 55.26% | +0.99 | 0.885 | $151.79 |
| 2026-10-13 | 54.79% | +0.04 | 0.887 | $162.36 |
| 2026-10-09 | 52.77% | +0.40 | 0.908 | $161.48 |
| 2026-10-08 | 55.13% | -2.60 | 0.883 | $156.14 |
| 2026-10-07 | 53.03% | -1.08 | 0.918 | $166.72 |
| 2026-10-06 | 52.99% | -2.05 | 0.909 | $160.50 |
| 2026-10-05 | 49.00% | -1.97 | 0.949 | $144.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | 44.36% | -2.02 | 1.016 | $140.02 |
| 2026-10-01 | 44.42% | -0.98 | 1.032 | $139.75 |
| 2026-09-30 | 42.15% | -2.36 | 1.073 | $138.35 |
| 2026-09-29 | 43.09% | -2.62 | 1.068 | $140.83 |
| 2026-09-28 | 42.00% | -2.04 | 1.082 | $138.02 |
| 2026-09-25 | 40.62% | -1.71 | 1.117 | $138.46 |
| 2026-09-24 | 40.57% | -2.58 | 1.102 | $137.94 |
| 2026-09-23 | 40.61% | -2.82 | 1.110 | $137.97 |
| 2026-09-22 | 41.62% | -0.10 | 1.103 | $140.41 |
| 2026-09-21 | 41.25% | -2.51 | 1.121 | $140.78 |
| 2026-09-18 | 42.24% | -1.05 | 1.095 | $140.67 |
| 2026-09-17 | 42.84% | -1.10 | 1.073 | $143.56 |
| 2026-09-16 | 43.43% | -0.40 | 1.135 | $140.39 |
| 2026-09-15 | 43.75% | +0.22 | 1.088 | $141.53 |
| 2026-09-14 | 43.92% | -1.37 | 1.071 | $140.73 |
| 2026-09-11 | 44.35% | -1.98 | 1.070 | $148.38 |
| 2026-09-10 | 46.13% | -1.69 | 1.048 | $147.05 |
| 2026-09-09 | 44.06% | -1.66 | 1.105 | $151.10 |
| 2026-09-08 | 46.38% | -1.79 | 1.079 | $151.72 |
| 2026-09-04 | 43.61% | -1.63 | 1.092 | $149.30 |
| 2026-09-03 | 40.66% | +0.70 | 1.138 | $144.22 |
| 2026-09-02 | 42.48% | +0.23 | 1.079 | $143.46 |
| 2026-09-01 | 41.48% | -0.65 | 1.090 | $138.08 |
| 2026-08-31 | 39.85% | +0.36 | 1.133 | $137.37 |
| 2026-08-28 | 40.60% | +1.51 | 1.126 | $137.09 |
| 2026-08-27 | 42.29% | +0.91 | 1.098 | $139.81 |
| 2025-10-22 | 63.98% | +5.03 | 0.855 | $185.83 |
| 2025-10-21 | 60.19% | +3.02 | 0.928 | $186.52 |
| 2025-10-20 | 62.48% | +3.40 | 0.890 | $194.24 |
| 2025-10-17 | 64.08% | +2.89 | 0.899 | $201.35 |
| 2025-10-16 | 68.76% | +2.13 | 0.845 | $210.40 |
| 2025-10-15 | 64.80% | +1.11 | 0.894 | $210.85 |
| 2025-10-14 | 63.78% | +3.08 | 0.895 | $205.51 |
| 2025-10-10 | 65.49% | +1.53 | 0.894 | $196.86 |
| 2025-10-09 | 61.95% | +1.58 | 0.910 | $210.00 |
| 2025-10-08 | 61.64% | +3.04 | 0.912 | $206.55 |
| 2025-10-07 | 59.45% | +1.37 | 0.936 | $199.62 |
| 2025-10-06 | 62.29% | -0.31 | 0.916 | $200.41 |
| 2025-10-03 | 56.04% | +1.76 | 1.004 | $201.99 |
| 2025-10-02 | 54.12% | +2.01 | 1.035 | $202.65 |
| 2025-10-01 | 53.24% | +2.11 | 1.061 | $201.51 |
| 2025-09-30 | 52.14% | +4.33 | 1.068 | $195.92 |
| 2025-09-29 | 52.84% | +1.97 | 1.042 | $197.94 |
| 2025-09-26 | 50.91% | +2.84 | 1.108 | $207.22 |
| 2025-09-25 | 54.00% | +2.74 | 1.051 | $201.62 |
| 2025-09-24 | 53.75% | +2.63 | 1.055 | $202.06 |
| 2025-09-23 | 54.39% | +2.64 | 1.055 | $204.24 |
| 2025-09-22 | 54.34% | +3.16 | 1.069 | $217.92 |
| 2025-09-19 | 51.77% | +2.06 | 1.068 | $211.28 |
| 2025-09-18 | 51.27% | +1.98 | 1.068 | $210.16 |
| 2025-09-17 | 52.32% | +1.71 | 1.058 | $208.31 |
| 2025-09-16 | 52.29% | +2.01 | 1.059 | $209.43 |
| 2025-09-15 | 52.44% | +1.25 | 1.043 | $213.52 |
| 2025-09-12 | 49.91% | +1.42 | 1.076 | $209.70 |
| 2025-09-11 | 50.46% | +2.55 | 1.073 | $204.05 |
| 2025-09-10 | 50.46% | +0.45 | 1.093 | $209.21 |
| 2025-09-09 | 49.06% | +2.31 | 1.068 | $193.78 |
| 2025-09-08 | 48.93% | +4.04 | 1.053 | $188.01 |
| 2025-09-05 | 49.35% | +5.73 | 1.061 | $188.00 |
| 2025-09-04 | 47.67% | +1.99 | 1.067 | $189.73 |
| 2025-09-03 | 47.31% | +5.39 | 1.067 | $188.12 |
| 2025-09-02 | 49.72% | +1.87 | 1.056 | $185.81 |
| 2025-08-29 | 48.33% | +4.52 | 1.074 | $189.11 |
| 2025-08-28 | 47.26% | +4.31 | 1.096 | $196.70 |
| 2025-08-27 | 49.90% | +2.79 | 1.057 | $194.60 |
| 2025-08-26 | 51.10% | +2.28 | 1.048 | $195.12 |
| 2025-08-25 | 49.35% | +3.23 | 1.064 | $190.08 |
| 2025-08-22 | 49.27% | +3.51 | 1.053 | $190.46 |
| 2025-08-21 | 50.51% | +3.99 | 1.042 | $190.28 |
| 2025-08-20 | 50.69% | +2.77 | 1.057 | $192.91 |
| 2025-08-19 | 49.64% | +4.09 | 1.038 | $193.52 |
| 2025-08-18 | 48.18% | +4.28 | 1.084 | $198.96 |
| 2025-08-15 | 48.92% | +3.52 | 1.053 | $197.33 |
| 2025-08-14 | 49.50% | +4.07 | 1.038 | $202.35 |
| 2025-08-13 | 46.67% | +4.57 | 1.089 | $205.28 |
| 2025-08-12 | 47.15% | -0.04 | 1.074 | $209.56 |
| 2025-08-11 | 49.96% | +0.61 | 1.050 | $200.08 |
| 2025-08-08 | 48.37% | +4.32 | 1.036 | $202.12 |
| 2025-08-07 | 48.45% | +4.64 | 1.058 | $205.59 |
| 2025-08-06 | 55.64% | +8.08 | 0.996 | $200.85 |
| 2025-08-05 | 59.68% | +3.73 | 0.929 | $209.60 |
| 2025-08-04 | 58.55% | +3.05 | 0.941 | $214.06 |
| 2025-08-01 | 59.49% | +2.61 | 0.925 | $208.05 |
| 2025-07-31 | 57.06% | +0.57 | 0.934 | $208.54 |
| 2025-07-30 | 58.11% | +2.69 | 0.906 | $207.05 |
| 2025-07-29 | 56.59% | +3.11 | 0.931 | $198.00 |
| 2025-07-28 | 58.40% | -0.02 | 0.903 | $195.88 |
| 2025-07-25 | 57.59% | +3.80 | 0.915 | $192.20 |
| 2025-07-24 | 56.47% | +2.62 | 0.931 | $196.24 |
| 2025-07-23 | 59.76% | +5.95 | 0.909 | $200.12 |
| 2025-07-22 | 59.12% | +4.25 | 0.925 | $189.09 |
| 2025-07-21 | 59.81% | +4.25 | 0.906 | $188.23 |
| 2025-07-18 | 60.87% | +4.36 | 0.899 | $193.01 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 333 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 333 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-13) · 8d (2026-11-20) · 15d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 8d | 15d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 56.71% | 49.39% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 55.44% | 49.13% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 55.01% | 48.34% | 44.97% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 54.86% | 48.66% | 44.57% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 55.06% | 48.77% | 44.58% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 55.31% | 48.43% | 44.23% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 55.05% | 49.37% | 45.32% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 54.52% | 48.88% | 46.78% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 53.20% | 50.39% | 46.81% |
| ATM | 52.63% | 51.20% | 46.97% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 52.82% | 51.42% | 47.16% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 53.08% | 51.38% | 46.79% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 53.31% | 52.52% | 50.98% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 53.61% | 53.54% | 48.82% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 54.14% | 53.23% | 48.76% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 54.67% | 54.18% | 48.39% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 55.19% | 54.01% | 48.17% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 56.31% | 54.36% | 49.76% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 58.77% | 60.00% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 | $133.85 | 52.63% | 54.14% | 55.06% | -0.92 | +1.97 | 21 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $134.18 | 51.20% | 53.23% | 48.77% | +4.46 | -0.19 | 33 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $134.23 | 46.97% | 48.76% | 44.58% | +4.18 | -0.30 | 30 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $134.67 | 47.22% | 49.30% | 45.18% | +4.12 | +0.02 | 29 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $134.97 | 46.55% | 48.02% | 45.02% | +2.99 | -0.03 | 35 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $134.52 | 46.51% | 48.78% | 44.89% | +3.88 | +0.33 | 16 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $134.85 | 47.48% | 50.62% | 45.72% | +4.91 | +0.69 | 29 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $134.82 | 45.87% | 47.19% | 44.46% | +2.74 | -0.04 | 21 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $136.02 | 48.23% | 49.93% | 47.09% | +2.83 | +0.28 | 23 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 | $137.01 | 48.04% | 49.91% | 46.76% | +3.16 | +0.29 | 24 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $137.95 | 49.08% | 51.18% | 46.77% | +4.41 | -0.10 | 30 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 | $139.61 | 48.06% | 51.53% | 48.33% | +3.20 | +1.88 | 30 |
| 2027-12-17 | 400 | $141.16 | 49.49% | 50.83% | 46.87% | +3.96 | -0.64 | 48 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 天 | $133.85 | 52.63% | $133.91 | 21 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $134.18 | 51.20% | $134.56 | 33 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $134.23 | 46.97% | $134.84 | 30 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $134.67 | 47.22% | $135.58 | 29 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $134.97 | 46.55% | $136.14 | 35 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $134.52 | 46.51% | $135.97 | 16 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $134.85 | 47.48% | $136.61 | 29 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $134.82 | 45.87% | $137.33 | 21 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $136.02 | 48.23% | $141.63 | 23 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 天 | $137.01 | 48.04% | $143.89 | 24 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $137.95 | 49.08% | $148.18 | 30 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 天 | $139.61 | 48.06% | $153.95 | 30 |
| 2027-12-17 | 400 天 | $141.16 | 49.49% | $161.43 | 48 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 46.54%
- 60 天
- 46.07%
- 90 天
- 47.26%
- 180 天
- 48.55%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 333 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 4 次
- 67% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 10.4%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 7.8%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-07 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2026-11-06 | 开盘前 | 11.7% | +10.6% | 0.90× |
| 2026-11-05 | 未说明时间 | 8.7% | +10.6% | 1.22× |
| 2026-08-07 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-26 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-06 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-07 | 开盘前 | 10.1% | +2.4% | 0.23× |
| 2025-05-07 | 开盘前 | 10.4% | -3.7% | 0.35× |
| 2025-02-27 | 开盘前 | 11.5% | -12.3% | 1.07× |
| 2024-11-07 | 开盘前 | 10.0% | +7.6% | 0.76× |
| 2024-08-08 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-08 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-28 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-07 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。