股票 · 期权分析
WDC 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $311.21
- 30D ATM IV
- 71.76%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 94
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +6.36
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.957
▼ -4.37 pts 较前一交易日
概览
WDC 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 71.8%,相当于未来一个月约 ±20.6% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 232 个交易日中 94% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 6.36 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 9% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 4%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-21(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 8 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±7.8% 的波动,WDC 实际平均波动 304.2%,8 次中有 2 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 71.76%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +6.36
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.76
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.957
对应 30 天内约 ±20.6% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.5%。
高于过去一年中 94% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 6.36 个点。
高于过去一年中 91% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.76 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 4%。
高于过去一年中 43% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 232 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 94%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 70%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 96%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 70%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $311.21
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $311.02
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 69.06%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 68.67%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 68.21%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 288,261
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.17
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 332 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 71.76% | +6.36 | 0.957 | $311.21 |
| 2026-11-10 | 76.14% | +9.80 | 0.956 | $289.20 |
| 2026-11-09 | 78.13% | +7.50 | 0.934 | $289.78 |
| 2026-11-06 | 87.00% | +9.53 | 0.881 | $263.78 |
| 2026-11-05 | 88.26% | +12.01 | 0.883 | $267.63 |
| 2026-11-04 | 68.88% | +4.23 | 0.966 | $323.83 |
| 2026-11-03 | 70.08% | +5.16 | 0.952 | $347.35 |
| 2026-11-02 | 75.20% | +2.71 | 0.906 | $338.59 |
| 2026-10-30 | 67.24% | +6.12 | 0.958 | $366.11 |
| 2026-10-29 | 63.40% | +1.30 | 0.991 | $395.41 |
| 2026-10-28 | 64.06% | -0.95 | 0.985 | $396.42 |
| 2026-10-27 | 64.06% | +1.74 | 0.965 | $380.88 |
| 2026-10-26 | 64.78% | +2.20 | 0.957 | $356.13 |
| 2026-10-23 | 66.34% | +1.47 | 0.962 | $343.67 |
| 2026-10-22 | 71.73% | +1.33 | 0.892 | $354.19 |
| 2026-10-21 | 68.12% | +0.29 | 0.907 | $378.51 |
| 2026-10-20 | 68.75% | +0.77 | 0.911 | $364.32 |
| 2026-10-19 | 69.26% | +1.84 | 0.901 | $352.21 |
| 2026-10-16 | 73.87% | +3.40 | 0.863 | $332.00 |
| 2026-10-15 | 68.49% | +0.55 | 0.898 | $356.45 |
| 2026-10-14 | 69.24% | +1.76 | 0.896 | $364.10 |
| 2026-10-13 | 66.52% | -0.27 | 0.893 | $380.71 |
| 2026-10-09 | 63.20% | -2.74 | 0.929 | $397.28 |
| 2026-10-08 | 64.27% | -2.01 | 0.944 | $393.31 |
| 2026-10-07 | 69.05% | -6.25 | 0.897 | $405.42 |
| 2026-10-06 | 67.69% | -3.62 | 0.920 | $411.04 |
| 2026-10-05 | 68.20% | -1.54 | 0.944 | $441.64 |
| 2026-10-02 | 67.85% | -2.97 | 0.971 | $415.29 |
| 2026-10-01 | 70.93% | -1.82 | 0.970 | $462.56 |
| 2026-09-30 | 75.14% | -3.37 | 0.945 | $454.46 |
| 2026-09-29 | 68.98% | +0.24 | 1.024 | $453.48 |
| 2026-09-28 | 74.29% | -3.25 | 0.951 | $453.23 |
| 2026-09-25 | 70.16% | -6.93 | 1.018 | $456.81 |
| 2026-09-24 | 68.55% | -6.08 | 1.037 | $450.31 |
| 2026-09-23 | 70.93% | -3.46 | 1.035 | $473.69 |
| 2026-09-22 | 70.56% | -4.37 | 1.057 | $464.60 |
| 2026-09-21 | 67.39% | -3.12 | 1.040 | $448.17 |
| 2026-09-18 | 64.99% | -2.96 | 1.060 | $441.36 |
| 2026-09-17 | 62.87% | -1.60 | 1.088 | $423.87 |
| 2026-09-16 | 63.87% | +0.17 | 1.120 | $416.97 |
| 2026-09-15 | 64.58% | -1.01 | 1.040 | $411.96 |
| 2026-09-14 | 65.24% | -1.34 | 1.089 | $426.94 |
| 2026-09-11 | 63.18% | -0.38 | 1.110 | $447.18 |
| 2026-09-10 | 68.65% | -5.92 | 1.028 | $460.93 |
| 2026-09-09 | 69.27% | -1.22 | 1.085 | $482.28 |
| 2026-09-08 | 76.80% | -2.07 | 1.001 | $477.30 |
| 2026-09-04 | 68.88% | -2.55 | 1.053 | $467.46 |
| 2026-09-03 | 67.34% | -4.13 | 1.025 | $441.57 |
| 2026-09-02 | 63.90% | -0.47 | 1.105 | $448.90 |
| 2026-09-01 | 65.08% | +0.99 | 1.095 | $450.44 |
| 2026-08-31 | 63.97% | -2.44 | 1.100 | $450.55 |
| 2026-08-28 | 66.31% | -4.36 | 1.094 | $459.45 |
| 2026-08-27 | 69.33% | -2.05 | 1.087 | $462.00 |
| 2025-10-22 | 70.45% | -0.13 | 0.853 | $120.47 |
| 2025-10-21 | 65.13% | +2.64 | 0.908 | $121.41 |
| 2025-10-20 | 70.67% | -2.95 | 0.853 | $121.53 |
| 2025-10-17 | 71.78% | +2.12 | 0.846 | $126.20 |
| 2025-10-16 | 73.44% | +1.18 | 0.855 | $125.92 |
| 2025-10-15 | — | — | — | $120.44 |
| 2025-10-14 | — | — | — | $113.13 |
| 2025-10-10 | 70.86% | +0.21 | 0.857 | $115.42 |
| 2025-10-09 | 66.78% | +2.33 | 0.873 | $119.70 |
| 2025-10-08 | 68.08% | -9.09 | 0.891 | $121.18 |
| 2025-10-07 | 68.92% | -1.84 | 0.877 | $119.93 |
| 2025-10-06 | 70.79% | -3.45 | 0.878 | $125.28 |
| 2025-10-03 | 68.68% | +2.55 | 0.903 | $131.31 |
| 2025-10-02 | 69.87% | -6.40 | — | $131.26 |
| 2025-10-01 | 64.74% | -3.69 | — | $130.59 |
| 2025-09-30 | 58.27% | -1.82 | 0.964 | $120.06 |
| 2025-09-29 | 59.32% | +0.12 | 0.925 | $116.74 |
| 2025-09-26 | 50.49% | +1.87 | 0.994 | $106.88 |
| 2025-09-25 | 49.70% | +0.28 | 1.032 | $107.21 |
| 2025-09-24 | 55.61% | -1.42 | 0.954 | $109.69 |
| 2025-09-23 | 59.49% | -4.13 | 0.891 | $110.25 |
| 2025-09-22 | 51.93% | -0.07 | 1.008 | $112.41 |
| 2025-09-19 | 48.20% | +0.47 | 1.029 | $106.63 |
| 2025-09-18 | 45.99% | -0.72 | 1.066 | $105.15 |
| 2025-09-17 | 43.96% | +1.07 | 1.087 | $100.94 |
| 2025-09-16 | 47.01% | +0.27 | 1.047 | $103.09 |
| 2025-09-15 | 45.40% | +0.53 | 1.074 | $102.39 |
| 2025-09-12 | 41.30% | +0.36 | 1.135 | $97.66 |
| 2025-09-11 | — | — | — | $96.15 |
| 2025-09-10 | 41.68% | +2.63 | 1.060 | $95.02 |
| 2025-09-09 | 42.89% | +3.86 | 1.030 | $94.54 |
| 2025-09-08 | 39.20% | +0.94 | 1.124 | $93.29 |
| 2025-09-05 | 36.61% | -0.77 | 1.189 | $92.04 |
| 2025-09-04 | 43.72% | +2.43 | 0.983 | $90.49 |
| 2025-09-03 | 37.16% | +3.18 | 1.137 | $86.00 |
| 2025-09-02 | 36.11% | +8.06 | 1.156 | $81.91 |
| 2025-08-29 | 34.31% | +3.53 | 1.178 | $80.34 |
| 2025-08-28 | 35.04% | +0.58 | 1.109 | $82.04 |
| 2025-08-27 | 32.42% | +1.14 | 1.214 | $80.67 |
| 2025-08-26 | 33.52% | +2.87 | 1.190 | $79.71 |
| 2025-08-25 | 35.73% | +2.63 | 1.117 | $79.22 |
| 2025-08-22 | 35.11% | +2.75 | 1.106 | $76.97 |
| 2025-08-21 | 35.57% | +3.92 | 1.117 | $74.66 |
| 2025-08-20 | 35.26% | +3.33 | 1.102 | $75.64 |
| 2025-08-19 | 34.01% | +0.57 | 1.117 | $75.86 |
| 2025-08-18 | 33.26% | +2.29 | 1.128 | $76.29 |
| 2025-08-15 | 32.94% | +3.56 | 1.107 | $75.06 |
| 2025-08-14 | 32.47% | +3.42 | 1.142 | $76.24 |
| 2025-08-13 | 33.12% | +1.59 | 1.128 | $76.07 |
| 2025-08-12 | 32.91% | +2.22 | 1.120 | $75.91 |
| 2025-08-11 | 34.41% | +2.55 | 1.094 | $74.64 |
| 2025-08-08 | 32.96% | +3.12 | 1.131 | $74.97 |
| 2025-08-07 | 34.61% | +2.70 | 1.089 | $74.44 |
| 2025-08-06 | 35.64% | +1.17 | 1.069 | $73.78 |
| 2025-08-05 | 32.84% | +4.44 | 1.169 | $75.84 |
| 2025-08-04 | 35.91% | +1.85 | 1.056 | $77.29 |
| 2025-08-01 | 38.11% | +3.08 | 1.029 | $76.55 |
| 2025-07-31 | 37.23% | +3.07 | 1.026 | $78.69 |
| 2025-07-30 | 44.27% | +3.66 | 0.891 | $71.43 |
| 2025-07-29 | 44.44% | +1.86 | 0.888 | $70.61 |
| 2025-07-28 | 43.14% | +1.94 | 0.904 | $68.99 |
| 2025-07-25 | 41.25% | +1.67 | 0.974 | $68.82 |
| 2025-07-24 | 42.63% | +3.97 | 0.906 | $69.02 |
| 2025-07-23 | 44.07% | +3.97 | 0.896 | $69.32 |
| 2025-07-22 | 43.56% | +0.73 | 0.894 | $67.06 |
| 2025-07-21 | 43.38% | +1.84 | 0.887 | $68.74 |
| 2025-07-18 | 43.25% | +1.33 | 0.876 | $68.00 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 332 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 332 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-13) · 8d (2026-11-20) · 15d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 8d | 15d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | — | 77.78% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 84.68% | 77.52% | 69.36% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 86.07% | 77.87% | 69.44% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 85.96% | 77.96% | 69.88% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 86.20% | 77.34% | 70.19% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 87.40% | 78.41% | 70.44% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 86.61% | 78.11% | 71.02% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 85.55% | 79.20% | 70.86% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 85.96% | 78.85% | 71.76% |
| ATM | 87.38% | 79.34% | 71.52% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 88.33% | 78.53% | 72.09% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 89.04% | 78.64% | 71.79% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 90.60% | 78.87% | 72.59% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 90.89% | 79.42% | 72.87% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 91.84% | 81.08% | 74.03% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 92.70% | 82.27% | 74.66% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 93.71% | 83.00% | 76.08% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 94.03% | 84.82% | 77.52% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 99.23% | 88.86% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 | $310.45 | 87.38% | 91.84% | 86.20% | +5.64 | +1.64 | 22 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $310.45 | 79.34% | 81.08% | 77.34% | +3.74 | -0.14 | 52 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $310.73 | 71.52% | 74.03% | 70.19% | +3.84 | +0.59 | 43 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $310.10 | 73.64% | 74.22% | 69.73% | +4.49 | -1.66 | 33 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $310.95 | 72.04% | 76.17% | 69.48% | +6.70 | +0.78 | 30 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $311.46 | 70.41% | 73.40% | 68.69% | +4.71 | +0.63 | 28 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $310.30 | 71.18% | 73.17% | 69.25% | +3.92 | +0.03 | 30 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $311.76 | 68.75% | 70.83% | 66.74% | +4.09 | +0.04 | 41 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $314.21 | 68.61% | 71.35% | 68.17% | +3.18 | +1.16 | 57 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 | $315.75 | 68.10% | 71.45% | 67.36% | +4.09 | +1.31 | 58 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $317.74 | 68.33% | 71.07% | 67.33% | +3.74 | +0.87 | 81 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 | $320.44 | 68.97% | 71.59% | 68.23% | +3.36 | +0.94 | 68 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 天 | $310.45 | 87.38% | $310.77 | 22 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $310.45 | 79.34% | $312.60 | 52 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $310.73 | 71.52% | $314.01 | 43 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $310.10 | 73.64% | $315.21 | 33 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $310.95 | 72.04% | $317.43 | 30 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $311.46 | 70.41% | $319.16 | 28 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $310.30 | 71.18% | $319.48 | 30 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $311.76 | 68.75% | $324.95 | 41 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $314.21 | 68.61% | $341.02 | 57 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 天 | $315.75 | 68.10% | $348.42 | 58 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $317.74 | 68.33% | $365.05 | 81 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 天 | $320.44 | 68.97% | $391.91 | 68 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 71.76%
- 60 天
- 69.06%
- 90 天
- 68.67%
- 180 天
- 68.21%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 332 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 8 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 8 次中 2 次
- 25% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 7.8%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 304.2%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 未说明时间 | 6.6% | -17.4% | 2.64× |
| 2026-10-29 | 未说明时间 | 5.1% | -7.4% | 1.46× |
| 2026-10-22 | 收盘后 | 9.6% | -3.0% | 0.31× |
| 2026-08-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-30 | 收盘后 | 8.5% | +546.8% | 64.49× |
| 2025-04-30 | 开盘前 | 10.3% | +8.0% | 0.78× |
| 2025-01-29 | 收盘后 | 10.1% | +635.7% | 63.02× |
| 2025-01-16 | 收盘后 | 2.6% | +619.1% | 238.38× |
| 2024-10-24 | 收盘后 | 9.4% | +596.6% | 63.39× |
| 2024-07-31 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。