ETF · 期权分析
XOP 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $175.52
- 30D ATM IV
- 34.08%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 81
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +1.37
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.959
▲ +0.57 pts 较前一交易日
概览
XOP 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 34.1%,相当于未来一个月约 ±9.8% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 225 个交易日中 81% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 1.37 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 4%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 34.08%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +1.37
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.58
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.959
对应 30 天内约 ±9.8% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.1%。
高于过去一年中 81% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 1.37 个点。
高于过去一年中 23% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.58 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 4%。
高于过去一年中 17% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 225 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 81%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 26%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 86%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 26%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $175.52
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $175.66
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 32.52%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 32.66%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 32.43%
- 使用的到期日数
- 9
- 总未平仓量
- 210,610
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 2.00
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 332 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 34.08% | +1.37 | 0.959 | $175.52 |
| 2026-11-09 | 33.51% | +1.33 | 0.983 | $174.15 |
| 2026-11-06 | 35.28% | +0.50 | 0.954 | $173.77 |
| 2026-11-05 | 37.15% | +3.52 | 0.914 | $174.10 |
| 2026-11-04 | 35.52% | +1.16 | 0.962 | $179.29 |
| 2026-11-03 | 36.60% | +0.03 | 0.969 | $191.52 |
| 2026-11-02 | 38.57% | +0.68 | 0.922 | $193.56 |
| 2026-10-30 | 35.25% | +1.01 | 0.974 | $203.76 |
| 2026-10-29 | 32.63% | +1.02 | 1.007 | $199.52 |
| 2026-10-28 | 34.54% | +0.34 | 0.973 | $200.37 |
| 2026-10-27 | 34.88% | +1.45 | 0.959 | $200.01 |
| 2026-10-26 | 34.40% | +0.35 | 0.980 | $204.86 |
| 2026-10-23 | 34.93% | +0.65 | 0.969 | $201.69 |
| 2026-10-22 | 33.78% | +0.38 | 0.990 | $196.87 |
| 2026-10-21 | 33.78% | +1.82 | 0.968 | $199.02 |
| 2026-10-20 | 33.93% | +0.11 | 0.967 | $200.05 |
| 2026-10-19 | 33.31% | -0.09 | 0.952 | $199.47 |
| 2026-10-16 | 33.71% | +0.88 | 0.961 | $200.38 |
| 2026-10-15 | 32.05% | +0.72 | 0.987 | $194.89 |
| 2026-10-14 | 31.86% | +0.55 | 1.005 | $197.84 |
| 2026-10-13 | 31.91% | +0.72 | 0.986 | $199.82 |
| 2026-10-09 | 30.83% | -0.00 | 1.017 | $191.52 |
| 2026-10-08 | 32.77% | +0.90 | 0.980 | $193.49 |
| 2026-10-07 | 32.75% | +0.25 | 0.977 | $188.24 |
| 2026-10-06 | 32.72% | +3.49 | 0.987 | $188.46 |
| 2026-10-05 | 31.42% | +1.45 | 1.048 | $187.44 |
| 2026-10-02 | 33.43% | +2.49 | 0.963 | $184.93 |
| 2026-10-01 | 33.65% | +1.83 | 0.971 | $184.30 |
| 2026-09-30 | 33.44% | +0.62 | 1.002 | $179.33 |
| 2026-09-29 | 33.92% | +1.28 | 0.982 | $178.63 |
| 2026-09-28 | 34.31% | -0.57 | 0.989 | $180.14 |
| 2026-09-25 | 34.91% | +0.48 | 0.956 | $181.50 |
| 2026-09-24 | 32.59% | -0.24 | 1.012 | $184.05 |
| 2026-09-23 | 32.65% | -0.56 | 1.015 | $182.65 |
| 2026-09-22 | 33.11% | -0.98 | 1.005 | $181.61 |
| 2026-09-21 | 33.52% | +0.35 | 0.986 | $184.75 |
| 2026-09-18 | 32.70% | +1.61 | 0.979 | $190.61 |
| 2026-09-17 | 33.71% | +1.76 | 1.010 | $192.59 |
| 2026-09-16 | 34.09% | +0.79 | 0.995 | $191.80 |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — | — | $199.70 |
| 2026-09-14 | — | — | — | $193.47 |
| 2026-09-11 | 32.49% | +1.41 | 1.032 | $195.72 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | — | $195.47 |
| 2026-09-09 | 30.82% | +4.04 | 1.072 | $195.01 |
| 2026-09-08 | — | — | — | $193.91 |
| 2026-09-04 | 29.75% | +0.99 | 1.087 | $190.71 |
| 2026-09-03 | — | — | — | $192.33 |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — | — | $193.16 |
| 2026-09-01 | — | — | — | $192.72 |
| 2026-08-31 | 30.60% | +1.55 | 1.026 | $188.96 |
| 2026-08-28 | — | — | — | $185.94 |
| 2026-08-27 | 29.73% | +0.91 | 1.069 | $185.47 |
| 2025-10-22 | — | — | — | $124.90 |
| 2025-10-21 | — | — | — | $124.34 |
| 2025-10-20 | — | — | — | $125.27 |
| 2025-10-17 | 31.72% | +4.80 | 0.983 | $123.57 |
| 2025-10-16 | — | — | — | $123.29 |
| 2025-10-15 | — | — | — | $125.93 |
| 2025-10-14 | — | — | — | $126.14 |
| 2025-10-10 | — | — | — | $123.96 |
| 2025-10-09 | — | — | — | $131.00 |
| 2025-10-08 | — | — | — | $133.92 |
| 2025-10-07 | — | — | — | $133.73 |
| 2025-10-06 | — | — | — | $134.15 |
| 2025-10-03 | — | — | — | $133.19 |
| 2025-10-02 | 31.61% | +2.92 | 0.945 | $131.87 |
| 2025-10-01 | — | — | — | $134.49 |
| 2025-09-30 | — | — | — | $132.20 |
| 2025-09-29 | — | — | — | $133.50 |
| 2025-09-26 | 27.77% | +2.60 | 1.183 | $137.24 |
| 2025-09-25 | — | — | — | $136.09 |
| 2025-09-24 | — | — | — | $135.28 |
| 2025-09-23 | 29.29% | +4.49 | 1.054 | $133.24 |
| 2025-09-22 | 27.79% | +3.56 | 1.007 | $130.19 |
| 2025-09-19 | 27.13% | +4.71 | 1.006 | $130.10 |
| 2025-09-18 | 27.48% | +3.65 | 0.984 | $132.92 |
| 2025-09-17 | 27.32% | +2.52 | 0.961 | $133.33 |
| 2025-09-16 | 27.53% | +3.89 | 0.980 | $133.42 |
| 2025-09-15 | 26.71% | +3.71 | 0.999 | $129.34 |
| 2025-09-12 | 26.42% | -0.21 | 0.975 | $130.13 |
| 2025-09-11 | 25.19% | +0.85 | 1.067 | $131.37 |
| 2025-09-10 | 24.57% | +4.00 | 1.071 | $131.77 |
| 2025-09-09 | 27.44% | +2.52 | 0.975 | $129.03 |
| 2025-09-08 | 26.65% | +3.81 | 1.003 | $128.69 |
| 2025-09-05 | 28.06% | +4.02 | 0.973 | $129.64 |
| 2025-09-04 | 24.93% | +6.99 | 1.096 | $132.25 |
| 2025-09-03 | 27.54% | +4.12 | 0.981 | $130.84 |
| 2025-09-02 | 26.15% | +5.98 | 1.065 | $134.57 |
| 2025-08-29 | 24.17% | +3.25 | 1.053 | $133.01 |
| 2025-08-28 | 24.96% | +3.58 | 1.021 | $132.78 |
| 2025-08-27 | 24.48% | +3.66 | 1.026 | $131.40 |
| 2025-08-26 | 24.36% | +3.61 | 1.019 | $129.54 |
| 2025-08-25 | 24.14% | +3.26 | 1.030 | $129.96 |
| 2025-08-22 | 22.79% | +3.82 | 1.090 | $128.62 |
| 2025-08-21 | 23.26% | +5.29 | 1.172 | $124.36 |
| 2025-08-20 | 23.45% | +4.11 | 1.118 | $124.11 |
| 2025-08-19 | 25.37% | +3.13 | 1.045 | $122.92 |
| 2025-08-18 | 25.50% | +3.22 | 1.059 | $123.48 |
| 2025-08-15 | 25.75% | +2.91 | 1.049 | $124.52 |
| 2025-08-14 | 25.71% | +0.57 | 1.028 | $125.15 |
| 2025-08-13 | 27.81% | +2.15 | 0.961 | $124.93 |
| 2025-08-12 | 25.82% | +2.05 | 1.046 | $123.27 |
| 2025-08-11 | 26.22% | +2.24 | 1.084 | $121.81 |
| 2025-08-08 | 27.19% | +3.47 | 1.023 | $122.99 |
| 2025-08-07 | 28.01% | +3.25 | 1.037 | $122.54 |
| 2025-08-06 | 28.96% | +2.63 | 0.975 | $123.71 |
| 2025-08-05 | 28.72% | +1.31 | 0.965 | $125.04 |
| 2025-08-04 | 28.23% | +1.35 | 0.973 | $124.09 |
| 2025-08-01 | 33.23% | +3.14 | 0.856 | $123.70 |
| 2025-07-31 | 27.92% | +2.35 | 1.022 | $128.15 |
| 2025-07-30 | 27.72% | +2.59 | 0.996 | $129.70 |
| 2025-07-29 | 26.77% | +0.37 | 1.052 | $131.78 |
| 2025-07-28 | 25.73% | +2.16 | 1.042 | $130.93 |
| 2025-07-25 | 25.67% | +3.70 | 1.037 | $128.02 |
| 2025-07-24 | 23.96% | +2.79 | 1.135 | $128.79 |
| 2025-07-23 | 26.57% | +2.41 | 1.021 | $128.46 |
| 2025-07-22 | 26.90% | -0.24 | 1.035 | $127.57 |
| 2025-07-21 | 28.07% | +2.15 | 0.990 | $126.17 |
| 2025-07-18 | 27.99% | +1.77 | 0.983 | $129.41 |
| 2025-07-17 | 28.56% | +0.78 | 0.967 | $129.22 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 332 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 332 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Δ 看涨 | 40.25% | 34.46% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 38.47% | 34.58% | 32.86% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 39.15% | 35.61% | 32.61% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 39.71% | 36.05% | 32.74% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 39.74% | 35.19% | 32.76% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 39.81% | 34.66% | 32.84% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 41.06% | 34.64% | 32.96% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 40.74% | 34.02% | 32.34% |
| ATM | 40.46% | 34.35% | 31.42% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 40.25% | 33.51% | 34.21% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 40.40% | 36.95% | 37.78% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 40.88% | 34.15% | 35.35% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 41.02% | 35.02% | 34.84% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 41.15% | 34.44% | 34.29% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | — | 34.87% | — |
| 15Δ 看跌 | — | 36.91% | — |
| 10Δ 看跌 | — | 36.80% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $175.07 | 40.46% | 41.15% | 39.71% | +1.44 | -0.04 | 16 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $175.20 | 34.35% | 34.44% | 36.05% | -1.61 | +0.90 | 27 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $175.70 | 31.42% | 34.29% | 32.74% | +1.55 | +2.09 | 17 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $175.58 | 34.39% | 34.10% | 33.11% | +0.99 | -0.78 | 15 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $175.68 | 34.04% | 34.19% | 32.77% | +1.42 | -0.56 | 20 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $176.08 | 32.49% | 34.02% | 31.53% | +2.49 | +0.28 | 24 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $175.58 | 32.53% | 32.60% | 31.50% | +1.09 | -0.48 | 38 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $176.39 | 32.78% | 32.63% | 32.40% | +0.23 | -0.26 | 51 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $177.57 | 32.28% | 33.49% | 32.83% | +0.66 | +0.88 | 36 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
9 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $175.07 | 40.46% | $175.18 | 16 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $175.20 | 34.35% | $175.48 | 27 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $175.70 | 31.42% | $176.11 | 17 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $175.58 | 34.39% | $176.26 | 15 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $175.68 | 34.04% | $176.54 | 20 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $176.08 | 32.49% | $177.05 | 24 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $175.58 | 32.53% | $177.27 | 38 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $176.39 | 32.78% | $179.77 | 51 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $177.57 | 32.28% | $183.20 | 36 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 34.08%
- 60 天
- 32.52%
- 90 天
- 32.66%
- 180 天
- 32.43%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 332 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。