股票 · 期权分析
ZS 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $194.92
- 30D ATM IV
- 83.94%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 98
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +6.60
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.798
▲ +0.24 pts 较前一交易日
概览
ZS 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 83.9%,相当于未来一个月约 ±24.1% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 251 个交易日中 98% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 6.60 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 9% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 20%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2026-11-24(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±13.0% 的波动,ZS 实际平均波动 15.3%,5 次中有 3 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 83.94%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +6.60
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.30
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.798
对应 30 天内约 ±24.1% 的波动，平常一天约 ±5.3%。
高于过去一年中 98% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 6.60 个点。
高于过去一年中 91% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.30 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 20%。
高于过去一年中 13% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 251 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 98%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 91%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 99%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 91%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $194.92
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $194.58
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 73.13%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 66.95%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 64.35%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 146,576
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.89
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 332 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 83.94% | +6.60 | 0.798 | $194.92 |
| 2026-11-09 | 83.70% | +3.71 | 0.796 | $199.04 |
| 2026-11-06 | 86.76% | +4.70 | 0.781 | $197.66 |
| 2026-11-05 | 89.44% | +4.61 | 0.792 | $203.88 |
| 2026-11-04 | 82.04% | +6.89 | 0.823 | $224.44 |
| 2026-11-03 | 85.35% | +1.53 | 0.807 | $225.09 |
| 2026-11-02 | 82.93% | -1.22 | 0.829 | $223.79 |
| 2026-10-30 | 76.64% | +3.72 | 0.873 | $237.83 |
| 2026-10-29 | 72.96% | -0.30 | 0.895 | $247.82 |
| 2026-10-28 | 66.87% | -2.43 | 0.950 | $255.80 |
| 2026-10-27 | 62.68% | -1.18 | 1.030 | $260.15 |
| 2026-10-26 | 65.47% | +1.67 | 0.989 | $260.45 |
| 2026-10-23 | 63.12% | +1.53 | — | $255.15 |
| 2026-10-22 | 59.00% | +0.82 | — | $237.76 |
| 2026-10-21 | 55.87% | +1.17 | 1.097 | $231.33 |
| 2026-10-20 | 53.95% | +2.57 | 1.129 | $214.51 |
| 2026-10-19 | 53.45% | +1.28 | 1.132 | $212.53 |
| 2026-10-16 | 57.60% | +3.08 | 1.090 | $207.38 |
| 2026-10-15 | 54.68% | +0.51 | 1.105 | $220.43 |
| 2026-10-14 | 55.14% | +0.08 | 1.102 | $220.79 |
| 2026-10-13 | 51.61% | -3.92 | 1.141 | $228.66 |
| 2026-10-09 | 51.15% | -1.29 | 1.133 | $233.73 |
| 2026-10-08 | 51.80% | -1.58 | 1.117 | $216.81 |
| 2026-10-07 | 50.54% | -1.83 | 1.133 | $213.55 |
| 2026-10-06 | 52.55% | +0.99 | 1.131 | $212.25 |
| 2026-10-05 | 55.70% | -1.45 | 1.091 | $201.80 |
| 2026-10-02 | 54.08% | -0.90 | 1.122 | $196.60 |
| 2026-10-01 | 56.79% | -2.76 | 1.086 | $198.78 |
| 2026-09-30 | 54.42% | -1.36 | 1.127 | $199.42 |
| 2026-09-29 | 56.76% | -2.01 | 1.105 | $198.36 |
| 2026-09-28 | 57.76% | -1.29 | 1.095 | $199.39 |
| 2026-09-25 | 54.79% | -4.15 | 1.147 | $193.05 |
| 2026-09-24 | 57.30% | -1.07 | 1.091 | $214.64 |
| 2026-09-23 | 55.52% | -2.02 | 1.114 | $214.45 |
| 2026-09-22 | 55.53% | -0.11 | 1.110 | $210.18 |
| 2026-09-21 | 56.35% | -2.94 | 1.096 | $207.13 |
| 2026-09-18 | 54.21% | -1.60 | 1.108 | $197.31 |
| 2026-09-17 | 53.97% | -1.87 | 1.120 | $197.47 |
| 2026-09-16 | 55.30% | -1.15 | 1.097 | $191.58 |
| 2026-09-15 | 57.23% | -2.32 | 1.085 | $193.89 |
| 2026-09-14 | 59.00% | -3.31 | 1.004 | $191.73 |
| 2026-09-11 | 50.28% | -0.70 | 1.117 | $164.54 |
| 2026-09-10 | 51.28% | -5.23 | 1.090 | $163.48 |
| 2026-09-09 | 52.75% | +1.22 | 1.071 | $166.10 |
| 2026-09-08 | 51.60% | -0.87 | 1.097 | $161.94 |
| 2026-09-04 | 49.79% | -2.14 | 1.071 | $169.80 |
| 2026-09-03 | 81.73% | -6.23 | 0.790 | $177.80 |
| 2026-09-02 | 71.87% | -2.23 | 0.859 | $172.73 |
| 2026-09-01 | 74.48% | -0.96 | 0.839 | $178.37 |
| 2026-08-31 | 71.50% | -2.03 | 0.866 | $188.39 |
| 2026-08-28 | 71.06% | -0.68 | 0.848 | $184.23 |
| 2026-08-27 | 76.94% | +0.05 | 0.817 | $187.30 |
| 2025-10-22 | 39.62% | +4.59 | 1.130 | $307.92 |
| 2025-10-21 | 38.18% | +3.77 | 1.142 | $310.37 |
| 2025-10-20 | 39.84% | +4.09 | 1.102 | $305.90 |
| 2025-10-17 | 40.97% | +3.31 | 1.075 | $300.25 |
| 2025-10-16 | 44.21% | +3.03 | 1.034 | $299.24 |
| 2025-10-15 | 40.28% | +2.34 | 1.092 | $302.35 |
| 2025-10-14 | 41.01% | +1.89 | 1.097 | $301.80 |
| 2025-10-10 | 42.14% | +3.49 | 1.069 | $309.88 |
| 2025-10-09 | 39.61% | +2.78 | 1.121 | $315.21 |
| 2025-10-08 | 39.70% | +1.91 | 1.130 | $313.89 |
| 2025-10-07 | 38.57% | +3.76 | 1.128 | $292.75 |
| 2025-10-06 | 37.22% | +2.26 | 1.133 | $305.24 |
| 2025-10-03 | 35.52% | +1.49 | 1.153 | $305.41 |
| 2025-10-02 | 35.48% | +1.90 | 1.154 | $307.58 |
| 2025-10-01 | 36.15% | +2.15 | 1.141 | $304.53 |
| 2025-09-30 | 38.65% | +2.16 | 1.081 | $299.66 |
| 2025-09-29 | 37.40% | +1.96 | 1.114 | $296.90 |
| 2025-09-26 | 36.05% | +2.42 | 1.137 | $294.65 |
| 2025-09-25 | 37.88% | +2.70 | 1.079 | $286.66 |
| 2025-09-24 | 36.48% | +2.76 | 1.120 | $284.42 |
| 2025-09-23 | 36.90% | +2.62 | 1.083 | $289.29 |
| 2025-09-22 | 36.28% | +1.00 | 1.085 | $291.57 |
| 2025-09-19 | 35.10% | +1.66 | 1.101 | $294.27 |
| 2025-09-18 | 36.10% | +1.71 | 1.061 | $291.11 |
| 2025-09-17 | 35.55% | +1.69 | 1.080 | $279.46 |
| 2025-09-16 | 34.62% | +2.22 | 1.092 | $281.96 |
| 2025-09-15 | 35.15% | +1.64 | 1.067 | $285.66 |
| 2025-09-12 | 33.79% | +1.87 | 1.077 | $283.19 |
| 2025-09-11 | 33.28% | +2.28 | 1.078 | $286.66 |
| 2025-09-10 | 32.05% | +1.32 | 1.103 | $278.79 |
| 2025-09-09 | 32.80% | +1.75 | 1.055 | $282.29 |
| 2025-09-08 | 31.77% | +1.02 | 1.103 | $281.60 |
| 2025-09-05 | 31.96% | +1.79 | 1.079 | $274.20 |
| 2025-09-04 | 32.46% | +2.67 | 1.053 | $268.25 |
| 2025-09-03 | 34.33% | +1.59 | 1.030 | $270.58 |
| 2025-09-02 | 59.06% | +4.17 | 0.749 | $274.57 |
| 2025-08-29 | 55.30% | +4.44 | 0.784 | $277.05 |
| 2025-08-28 | 55.23% | +2.09 | 0.783 | $280.42 |
| 2025-08-27 | 54.34% | +2.18 | 0.800 | $273.07 |
| 2025-08-26 | 53.69% | +4.11 | 0.802 | $267.68 |
| 2025-08-25 | 53.90% | +3.11 | 0.791 | $269.66 |
| 2025-08-22 | 54.11% | +3.11 | 0.796 | $272.52 |
| 2025-08-21 | 54.34% | +4.02 | 0.818 | $270.35 |
| 2025-08-20 | 55.23% | +3.67 | 0.790 | $273.81 |
| 2025-08-19 | 55.28% | +3.42 | 0.796 | $274.92 |
| 2025-08-18 | 55.68% | +3.33 | 0.794 | $277.03 |
| 2025-08-15 | 54.40% | +2.47 | 0.803 | $274.97 |
| 2025-08-14 | 54.86% | +3.38 | 0.803 | $270.99 |
| 2025-08-13 | 55.23% | +2.67 | 0.789 | $277.77 |
| 2025-08-12 | 53.17% | +4.38 | 0.816 | $275.43 |
| 2025-08-11 | 54.40% | +4.04 | 0.794 | $271.18 |
| 2025-08-08 | 54.77% | +3.55 | 0.785 | $269.70 |
| 2025-08-07 | 54.88% | +4.36 | 0.804 | $272.50 |
| 2025-08-06 | 45.84% | +4.49 | 0.914 | $289.32 |
| 2025-08-05 | 46.47% | +2.66 | 0.889 | $281.96 |
| 2025-08-04 | 45.59% | +4.57 | 0.920 | $285.86 |
| 2025-08-01 | 41.93% | +3.10 | 1.009 | $280.27 |
| 2025-07-31 | 39.50% | +2.45 | 1.047 | $285.56 |
| 2025-07-30 | 40.76% | +3.49 | 1.007 | $287.73 |
| 2025-07-29 | 37.25% | +2.43 | 1.093 | $290.07 |
| 2025-07-28 | 34.56% | +3.38 | 1.168 | $289.04 |
| 2025-07-25 | 34.17% | +4.40 | 1.188 | $286.19 |
| 2025-07-24 | 33.75% | +0.86 | 1.197 | $284.30 |
| 2025-07-23 | 37.61% | +3.36 | 1.085 | $283.37 |
| 2025-07-22 | 37.06% | +3.15 | 1.099 | $285.71 |
| 2025-07-21 | 36.48% | +3.63 | 1.119 | $288.43 |
| 2025-07-18 | 33.10% | +3.09 | 1.229 | $288.72 |
| 2025-07-17 | 32.92% | +3.08 | 1.223 | $286.29 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 332 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 332 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 73.83% | 66.28% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 72.37% | 65.03% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 72.19% | 66.01% | 59.47% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 71.82% | 65.20% | 60.56% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 73.00% | 64.14% | 60.11% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 74.04% | 63.51% | 59.98% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 74.63% | 63.22% | 60.65% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 75.71% | 64.92% | 62.20% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 74.99% | 65.47% | 62.02% |
| ATM | 74.31% | 67.13% | 63.02% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 74.66% | 67.53% | 63.46% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 76.14% | 68.34% | 64.57% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 77.55% | 69.14% | 65.29% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 77.93% | 70.22% | 66.37% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 78.00% | 71.22% | 67.07% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 78.96% | 72.63% | 69.22% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 83.49% | 79.62% | — |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 83.11% | 80.21% | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 89.69% | 81.36% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $194.07 | 74.31% | 78.00% | 73.00% | +5.00 | +1.19 | 20 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $194.17 | 67.13% | 71.22% | 64.14% | +7.08 | +0.56 | 29 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $194.32 | 63.02% | 67.07% | 60.11% | +6.96 | +0.57 | 21 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $194.25 | 89.41% | 91.70% | 86.03% | +5.67 | -0.54 | 22 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $194.64 | 83.21% | 86.99% | 80.27% | +6.72 | +0.42 | 23 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $194.35 | 80.21% | 82.86% | 78.38% | +4.48 | +0.41 | 27 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $194.32 | 78.08% | 80.41% | 74.83% | +5.58 | -0.46 | 21 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $194.82 | 71.84% | 73.94% | 70.16% | +3.78 | +0.21 | 31 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $195.46 | 65.41% | 68.87% | 64.56% | +4.32 | +1.30 | 31 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $197.11 | 67.53% | 71.69% | 66.16% | +5.54 | +1.39 | 39 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $198.34 | 63.83% | 66.22% | 62.22% | +4.00 | +0.40 | 38 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $199.05 | 65.24% | 67.46% | 63.78% | +3.68 | +0.38 | 41 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $200.68 | 64.75% | 66.24% | 63.08% | +3.16 | -0.09 | 42 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $194.07 | 74.31% | $194.52 | 20 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $194.17 | 67.13% | $195.38 | 29 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $194.32 | 63.02% | $196.13 | 21 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $194.25 | 89.41% | $199.42 | 22 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $194.64 | 83.21% | $200.45 | 23 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $194.35 | 80.21% | $200.97 | 27 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $194.32 | 78.08% | $201.59 | 21 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $194.82 | 71.84% | $204.13 | 31 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $195.46 | 65.41% | $207.38 | 31 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $197.11 | 67.53% | $213.65 | 39 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $198.34 | 63.83% | $220.77 | 38 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $199.05 | 65.24% | $226.16 | 41 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $200.68 | 64.75% | $239.91 | 42 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 83.94%
- 60 天
- 73.13%
- 90 天
- 66.95%
- 180 天
- 64.35%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 332 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 3 次
- 60% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 13.0%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 15.3%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | 收盘后 | 18.5% | -4.5% | 0.24× |
| 2026-05-26 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-26 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-02 | 收盘后 | 12.5% | -31.8% | 2.55× |
| 2025-05-29 | 收盘后 | 7.7% | -25.4% | 3.28× |
| 2025-03-05 | 收盘后 | 13.3% | -4.7% | 0.35× |
| 2024-12-02 | 收盘后 | 12.8% | -10.2% | 0.79× |
| 2024-09-03 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-29 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。