股票 · 期权分析
ABNB 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $186.90
- 30D ATM IV
- 34.45%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 42
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +2.85
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.014
▲ +0.15 pts 较前一交易日
概览
ABNB 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 34.4%,相当于未来一个月约 ±9.9% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 245 个交易日中 42% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 2.85 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-05(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±10.6% 的波动,ABNB 实际平均波动 30.8%,5 次中有 0 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 34.45%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +2.85
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.15
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.014
对应 30 天内约 ±9.9% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.2%。
高于过去一年中 42% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 2.85 个点。
高于过去一年中 55% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.15 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 1%。
高于过去一年中 45% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 245 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 42%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 26%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 48%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 26%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $186.90
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $187.34
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 33.34%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 34.95%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 37.82%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 129,414
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.52
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 345 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 34.45% | +2.85 | 1.014 | $186.90 |
| 2026-11-09 | 34.30% | +3.47 | 1.017 | $190.29 |
| 2026-11-06 | 35.30% | +2.74 | 0.995 | $189.99 |
| 2026-11-05 | 50.55% | +4.80 | 0.803 | $170.13 |
| 2026-11-04 | 46.31% | +1.39 | 0.832 | $176.37 |
| 2026-11-03 | 45.84% | +0.83 | 0.832 | $166.96 |
| 2026-11-02 | 44.76% | +3.03 | 0.857 | $171.11 |
| 2026-10-30 | 43.95% | +1.68 | 0.875 | $164.39 |
| 2026-10-29 | 43.18% | +1.93 | 0.871 | $166.45 |
| 2026-10-28 | 42.99% | +3.55 | 0.871 | $166.05 |
| 2026-10-27 | 43.45% | -0.17 | 0.851 | $168.82 |
| 2026-10-26 | 44.13% | +3.54 | 0.830 | $171.05 |
| 2026-10-23 | 43.33% | +3.40 | 0.841 | $172.01 |
| 2026-10-22 | 46.44% | +2.92 | 0.806 | $175.76 |
| 2026-10-21 | 43.78% | +2.85 | 0.829 | $173.69 |
| 2026-10-20 | 44.20% | +4.02 | 0.835 | $176.94 |
| 2026-10-19 | 44.24% | +3.37 | 0.827 | $175.46 |
| 2026-10-16 | 44.95% | +2.11 | 0.820 | $173.70 |
| 2026-10-15 | 45.43% | +1.73 | 0.812 | $174.28 |
| 2026-10-14 | 46.43% | +2.70 | 0.802 | $167.06 |
| 2026-10-13 | 44.27% | +0.66 | 0.834 | $165.58 |
| 2026-10-09 | 44.19% | +2.22 | 0.833 | $165.87 |
| 2026-10-08 | 45.26% | +4.61 | 0.828 | $163.23 |
| 2026-10-07 | 43.97% | +0.86 | 0.858 | $160.63 |
| 2026-10-06 | 42.62% | +1.24 | 0.868 | $160.39 |
| 2026-10-05 | 41.58% | +2.47 | 0.899 | $164.07 |
| 2026-10-02 | 36.80% | +2.10 | 1.022 | $162.43 |
| 2026-10-01 | 37.08% | +1.25 | 1.025 | $160.47 |
| 2026-09-30 | 36.32% | +1.12 | 1.070 | $160.65 |
| 2026-09-29 | 37.85% | +2.39 | 1.027 | $156.96 |
| 2026-09-28 | 37.94% | +1.66 | 1.026 | $156.08 |
| 2026-09-25 | 34.82% | +2.19 | 1.113 | $157.47 |
| 2026-09-24 | 35.81% | +4.71 | 1.088 | $151.39 |
| 2026-09-23 | 36.53% | +2.22 | 1.089 | $149.58 |
| 2026-09-22 | 32.21% | +0.99 | 1.154 | $161.81 |
| 2026-09-21 | 32.31% | +2.18 | 1.151 | $166.84 |
| 2026-09-18 | 31.19% | +1.60 | 1.161 | $166.22 |
| 2026-09-17 | 32.18% | +2.36 | 1.120 | $165.93 |
| 2026-09-16 | 33.01% | +2.17 | 1.140 | $167.51 |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — | — | $168.32 |
| 2026-09-14 | — | — | — | $170.65 |
| 2026-09-11 | 30.48% | +2.69 | 1.225 | $170.19 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | — | $167.65 |
| 2026-09-09 | — | — | — | $169.63 |
| 2026-09-08 | — | — | — | $174.54 |
| 2026-09-04 | — | — | — | $181.94 |
| 2026-09-03 | 30.54% | +1.61 | 1.154 | $185.25 |
| 2026-09-02 | 30.46% | +0.70 | 1.124 | $183.26 |
| 2026-09-01 | — | — | — | $182.55 |
| 2026-08-31 | 29.39% | +1.21 | 1.154 | $183.22 |
| 2026-08-28 | 27.98% | +0.56 | 1.241 | $189.43 |
| 2026-08-27 | 29.19% | +0.42 | 1.192 | $184.40 |
| 2026-08-26 | 28.54% | +1.69 | 1.214 | $188.07 |
| 2026-08-25 | 30.69% | -0.81 | 1.167 | $190.50 |
| 2026-08-24 | 32.62% | +0.72 | 1.088 | $190.21 |
| 2026-08-21 | 29.19% | +1.34 | 1.226 | $187.30 |
| 2026-08-20 | 29.10% | +1.51 | 1.217 | $185.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | 28.53% | +1.43 | 1.225 | $186.39 |
| 2026-08-18 | 29.46% | -0.70 | 1.206 | $183.25 |
| 2025-10-22 | 48.68% | +2.93 | 0.775 | $127.50 |
| 2025-10-21 | 47.85% | +0.28 | 0.747 | $128.56 |
| 2025-10-20 | 51.96% | -1.56 | 0.708 | $127.21 |
| 2025-10-17 | 47.18% | +1.50 | 0.808 | $125.91 |
| 2025-10-16 | 48.99% | +0.41 | 0.802 | $122.89 |
| 2025-10-15 | 45.77% | +1.29 | 0.837 | $124.26 |
| 2025-10-14 | 48.52% | +2.23 | 0.788 | $122.89 |
| 2025-10-10 | 46.14% | +3.15 | 0.840 | $118.19 |
| 2025-10-09 | 46.41% | +2.32 | 0.818 | $120.15 |
| 2025-10-08 | 45.32% | +1.86 | 0.850 | $119.99 |
| 2025-10-07 | 40.61% | +0.94 | 0.949 | $119.85 |
| 2025-10-06 | 40.71% | +1.40 | 0.960 | $120.35 |
| 2025-10-03 | 39.53% | -0.82 | 0.977 | $120.22 |
| 2025-10-02 | 38.07% | +0.65 | 1.007 | $121.49 |
| 2025-10-01 | 34.46% | +2.26 | 1.099 | $122.32 |
| 2025-09-30 | 35.95% | +2.99 | 1.050 | $121.42 |
| 2025-09-29 | 32.36% | +0.24 | 1.159 | $122.92 |
| 2025-09-26 | 31.84% | +0.77 | 1.160 | $123.70 |
| 2025-09-25 | 32.96% | +1.30 | 1.143 | $121.75 |
| 2025-09-24 | 28.95% | +1.82 | 1.293 | $123.08 |
| 2025-09-23 | 31.53% | +2.68 | 1.190 | $123.50 |
| 2025-09-22 | 31.67% | -1.05 | 1.153 | $125.44 |
| 2025-09-19 | 30.72% | +2.18 | 1.172 | $127.04 |
| 2025-09-18 | 30.33% | +2.00 | 1.170 | $125.47 |
| 2025-09-17 | 29.95% | +1.35 | 1.183 | $123.20 |
| 2025-09-16 | 30.34% | +2.09 | 1.171 | $121.66 |
| 2025-09-15 | 30.66% | +2.24 | 1.165 | $120.37 |
| 2025-09-12 | 28.64% | +2.48 | 1.214 | $122.55 |
| 2025-09-11 | 29.02% | +2.66 | 1.190 | $123.05 |
| 2025-09-10 | 26.67% | +6.91 | 1.317 | $123.41 |
| 2025-09-09 | 29.72% | -0.00 | 1.167 | $123.81 |
| 2025-09-08 | 30.81% | +2.74 | 1.124 | $124.62 |
| 2025-09-05 | 31.15% | +4.37 | 1.128 | $123.81 |
| 2025-09-04 | 30.71% | +1.19 | 1.134 | $125.37 |
| 2025-09-03 | 29.20% | +2.24 | 1.180 | $124.90 |
| 2025-09-02 | 29.22% | +1.17 | 1.180 | $127.59 |
| 2025-08-29 | 26.38% | +3.04 | 1.281 | $130.53 |
| 2025-08-28 | 26.68% | +1.71 | 1.260 | $130.46 |
| 2025-08-27 | 23.60% | +4.46 | 1.445 | $129.85 |
| 2025-08-26 | 27.33% | +1.05 | 1.245 | $126.89 |
| 2025-08-25 | 27.36% | +0.69 | 1.224 | $128.15 |
| 2025-08-22 | 25.51% | +1.96 | 1.307 | $129.92 |
| 2025-08-21 | 29.17% | +2.53 | 1.141 | $126.43 |
| 2025-08-20 | 28.79% | +2.88 | 1.184 | $124.96 |
| 2025-08-19 | 28.66% | +2.15 | 1.161 | $126.00 |
| 2025-08-18 | 28.27% | +1.65 | 1.169 | $125.49 |
| 2025-08-15 | 28.05% | +2.06 | 1.170 | $125.10 |
| 2025-08-14 | 28.05% | +2.98 | 1.163 | $124.64 |
| 2025-08-13 | 27.62% | +2.80 | 1.132 | $124.55 |
| 2025-08-12 | 27.46% | +1.30 | 1.146 | $121.61 |
| 2025-08-11 | 28.16% | +1.37 | 1.091 | $118.30 |
| 2025-08-08 | 27.36% | +1.46 | 1.101 | $121.02 |
| 2025-08-07 | 31.53% | +2.66 | 0.996 | $120.03 |
| 2025-08-06 | 43.29% | +3.19 | 0.836 | $130.50 |
| 2025-08-05 | 44.72% | +2.27 | 0.816 | $129.96 |
| 2025-08-04 | 43.92% | +2.66 | 0.833 | $130.96 |
| 2025-08-01 | 44.82% | +4.39 | 0.844 | $128.02 |
| 2025-07-31 | 43.97% | +2.57 | 0.841 | $132.41 |
| 2025-07-30 | 43.49% | +1.52 | 0.824 | $134.75 |
| 2025-07-29 | 38.01% | +6.29 | 0.920 | $136.84 |
| 2025-07-28 | 43.01% | -0.50 | 0.801 | $142.16 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 345 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 43.19% | 34.56% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 41.84% | 34.99% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 41.40% | 35.08% | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 41.26% | 35.04% | 31.68% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 41.26% | 34.92% | 31.84% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 41.28% | 35.14% | 32.24% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 41.34% | 35.01% | 32.95% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 41.54% | 34.74% | 32.98% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 41.83% | 35.83% | 33.02% |
| ATM | 42.22% | 36.70% | 33.73% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 42.80% | 36.67% | 34.43% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 43.28% | 36.78% | 34.70% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 43.57% | 37.55% | 34.74% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 43.79% | 37.76% | 34.95% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 43.80% | 37.96% | 35.35% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 43.69% | 38.62% | 35.09% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 43.78% | 39.74% | — |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 44.90% | 40.95% | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | — | 42.76% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $186.74 | 42.22% | 43.80% | 41.26% | +2.54 | +0.31 | 9 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $186.92 | 36.70% | 37.96% | 34.92% | +3.05 | -0.26 | 13 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $187.30 | 33.73% | 35.35% | 31.84% | +3.50 | -0.14 | 12 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $187.21 | 33.70% | 35.79% | 32.35% | +3.43 | +0.37 | 9 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $187.36 | 34.54% | 35.71% | 32.94% | +2.77 | -0.22 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $187.54 | 33.25% | 35.50% | 32.04% | +3.46 | +0.52 | 12 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $187.46 | 34.50% | 36.97% | 34.42% | +2.55 | +1.20 | 10 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $188.16 | 33.05% | 35.22% | 31.64% | +3.58 | +0.38 | 15 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $189.92 | 36.45% | 38.49% | 35.03% | +3.46 | +0.31 | 19 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $189.72 | 37.07% | 38.20% | 35.20% | +3.00 | -0.37 | 20 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $191.05 | 38.71% | 39.07% | 36.09% | +2.98 | -1.13 | 26 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $193.68 | 38.24% | 39.52% | 36.59% | +2.94 | -0.19 | 28 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $186.74 | 42.22% | $186.88 | 9 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $186.92 | 36.70% | $187.27 | 13 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $187.30 | 33.73% | $187.80 | 12 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $187.21 | 33.70% | $187.91 | 9 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $187.36 | 34.54% | $188.31 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $187.54 | 33.25% | $188.62 | 12 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $187.46 | 34.50% | $188.81 | 10 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $188.16 | 33.05% | $190.03 | 15 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $189.92 | 36.45% | $194.44 | 19 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $189.72 | 37.07% | $195.41 | 20 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $191.05 | 38.71% | $199.83 | 26 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $193.68 | 38.24% | $206.13 | 28 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 34.45%
- 60 天
- 33.34%
- 90 天
- 34.95%
- 180 天
- 37.82%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 0 次
- 0% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 10.6%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 30.8%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-07 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2026-11-05 | 收盘后 | 9.9% | +11.7% | 1.18× |
| 2026-08-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-12 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-06 | 收盘后 | 9.2% | +40.4% | 4.37× |
| 2025-05-01 | 收盘后 | 9.6% | +47.8% | 5.00× |
| 2025-02-13 | 收盘后 | 11.9% | +29.9% | 2.52× |
| 2024-11-07 | 收盘后 | 12.6% | +24.3% | 1.92× |
| 2024-08-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-08 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-13 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。