股票 · 期权分析
AFRM 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $65.95
- 30D ATM IV
- 60.62%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 37
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +6.87
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.973
▲ +2.18 pts 较前一交易日
概览
AFRM 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 60.6%,相当于未来一个月约 ±17.4% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 37% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 6.87 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 3%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2026-11-26(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 7 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±16.5% 的波动,AFRM 实际平均波动 35.6%,7 次中有 3 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 60.62%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +6.87
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.14
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.973
对应 30 天内约 ±17.4% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.8%。
高于过去一年中 37% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 6.87 个点。
高于过去一年中 81% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.14 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 3%。
高于过去一年中 44% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 37%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 15%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 28%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 15%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $65.95
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $65.76
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 56.64%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 58.98%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 59.91%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 147,386
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.10
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 345 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 60.62% | +6.87 | 0.973 | $65.95 |
| 2026-11-09 | 58.44% | +6.90 | 1.012 | $68.03 |
| 2026-11-06 | 61.84% | +5.17 | 0.965 | $68.11 |
| 2026-11-05 | 76.40% | +6.20 | 0.845 | $69.66 |
| 2026-11-04 | 71.79% | +4.24 | 0.857 | $75.59 |
| 2026-11-03 | 74.34% | +2.40 | 0.847 | $71.97 |
| 2026-11-02 | 71.13% | +2.63 | 0.878 | $73.58 |
| 2026-10-30 | 74.70% | +6.55 | 0.844 | $73.47 |
| 2026-10-29 | 68.14% | +3.31 | 0.882 | $74.84 |
| 2026-10-28 | 67.42% | +1.64 | 0.903 | $73.32 |
| 2026-10-27 | 70.38% | +4.77 | 0.860 | $72.68 |
| 2026-10-26 | 69.39% | +2.83 | 0.863 | $69.49 |
| 2026-10-23 | 70.20% | +2.22 | 0.850 | $70.08 |
| 2026-10-22 | 72.37% | +3.81 | 0.833 | $72.40 |
| 2026-10-21 | 69.82% | +3.31 | 0.839 | $73.51 |
| 2026-10-20 | 72.17% | +3.07 | 0.824 | $73.85 |
| 2026-10-19 | 71.39% | +2.78 | 0.834 | $72.80 |
| 2026-10-16 | 73.76% | +6.09 | 0.826 | $74.01 |
| 2026-10-15 | 70.53% | +6.17 | 0.864 | $75.92 |
| 2026-10-14 | 70.80% | +0.31 | 0.809 | $70.51 |
| 2026-10-13 | 63.95% | +2.55 | 0.905 | $77.89 |
| 2026-10-09 | 64.28% | +2.49 | 0.871 | $80.70 |
| 2026-10-08 | 70.16% | -2.17 | 0.805 | $77.15 |
| 2026-10-07 | 68.62% | +1.94 | 0.835 | $75.31 |
| 2026-10-06 | 65.04% | +0.64 | 0.875 | $74.88 |
| 2026-10-05 | 60.92% | +0.26 | 0.927 | $74.75 |
| 2026-10-02 | 54.09% | +1.55 | 1.093 | $70.77 |
| 2026-10-01 | 60.35% | -5.95 | 0.987 | $70.43 |
| 2026-09-30 | 60.98% | +3.46 | 0.993 | $69.23 |
| 2026-09-29 | 54.30% | +2.38 | 1.084 | $69.30 |
| 2026-09-28 | 52.84% | -1.63 | 1.084 | $67.21 |
| 2026-09-25 | 52.04% | -0.11 | 1.118 | $71.52 |
| 2026-09-24 | 52.53% | +2.31 | 1.123 | $71.57 |
| 2026-09-23 | 51.27% | -1.19 | 1.136 | $68.09 |
| 2026-09-22 | 52.90% | +0.69 | 1.108 | $71.77 |
| 2026-09-21 | 51.13% | +0.75 | 1.149 | $71.05 |
| 2026-09-18 | 51.21% | +1.78 | 1.120 | $71.21 |
| 2026-09-17 | 51.23% | +1.31 | 1.140 | $70.28 |
| 2026-09-16 | 53.00% | +1.80 | 1.129 | $71.58 |
| 2026-09-15 | 53.69% | +0.73 | 1.135 | $72.09 |
| 2026-09-14 | 52.72% | +0.73 | 1.127 | $73.38 |
| 2026-09-11 | 52.24% | +0.87 | 1.118 | $71.44 |
| 2026-09-10 | 50.38% | +3.69 | 1.171 | $67.99 |
| 2026-09-09 | 54.41% | -4.05 | 1.069 | $68.15 |
| 2026-09-08 | 54.37% | -0.20 | 1.103 | $72.08 |
| 2026-09-04 | 49.86% | +0.43 | 1.198 | $72.35 |
| 2026-09-03 | 49.69% | -0.98 | 1.163 | $74.30 |
| 2026-09-02 | 53.24% | -1.56 | 1.125 | $74.09 |
| 2026-09-01 | 53.64% | -0.22 | 1.084 | $69.94 |
| 2026-08-31 | 50.98% | +2.70 | 1.101 | $74.45 |
| 2026-08-28 | 50.59% | -0.04 | 1.180 | $77.76 |
| 2026-08-27 | 65.94% | +2.20 | 0.949 | $77.49 |
| 2026-08-26 | 67.77% | +5.33 | 0.936 | $76.46 |
| 2026-08-25 | 68.74% | +4.33 | 0.967 | $77.95 |
| 2026-08-24 | 69.97% | +2.56 | 0.880 | $76.88 |
| 2026-08-21 | 69.65% | +1.99 | 0.950 | $77.03 |
| 2026-08-20 | 69.80% | -1.73 | 0.965 | $75.05 |
| 2026-08-19 | 69.57% | -0.15 | 0.916 | $77.33 |
| 2026-08-18 | 66.24% | +2.29 | 0.982 | $73.56 |
| 2025-10-22 | 88.81% | +6.46 | 0.793 | $71.93 |
| 2025-10-21 | 85.98% | +6.08 | 0.820 | $74.49 |
| 2025-10-20 | 85.74% | +8.52 | 0.822 | $72.08 |
| 2025-10-17 | 88.73% | +7.27 | 0.799 | $67.90 |
| 2025-10-16 | 96.74% | +8.38 | 0.775 | $69.07 |
| 2025-10-15 | 87.35% | +2.75 | 0.832 | $73.06 |
| 2025-10-14 | 90.29% | +6.32 | 0.777 | $72.92 |
| 2025-10-10 | 94.40% | +5.76 | 0.762 | $71.14 |
| 2025-10-09 | 82.10% | +4.40 | 0.841 | $77.46 |
| 2025-10-08 | 89.12% | +3.88 | 0.763 | $75.25 |
| 2025-10-07 | 80.16% | +1.09 | 0.839 | $76.65 |
| 2025-10-06 | 74.76% | +0.13 | 0.895 | $75.86 |
| 2025-10-03 | 67.42% | +1.65 | 0.990 | $74.83 |
| 2025-10-02 | 62.81% | +3.06 | 1.053 | $77.43 |
| 2025-10-01 | 61.87% | +2.29 | 1.074 | $74.42 |
| 2025-09-30 | 63.64% | +0.72 | 1.050 | $73.08 |
| 2025-09-29 | 59.43% | +2.82 | 1.103 | $76.56 |
| 2025-09-26 | 56.87% | +2.98 | 1.142 | $76.03 |
| 2025-09-25 | 59.46% | -0.70 | 1.107 | $77.94 |
| 2025-09-24 | 56.13% | +1.67 | 1.184 | $81.53 |
| 2025-09-23 | 61.57% | +3.27 | 1.080 | $82.73 |
| 2025-09-22 | 56.32% | +0.54 | 1.141 | $90.12 |
| 2025-09-19 | 55.20% | +2.58 | 1.154 | $92.18 |
| 2025-09-18 | 54.44% | +0.74 | 1.176 | $89.91 |
| 2025-09-17 | 56.61% | +0.79 | 1.130 | $90.40 |
| 2025-09-16 | 57.83% | +1.32 | 1.130 | $89.96 |
| 2025-09-15 | 58.06% | +1.86 | 1.120 | $89.43 |
| 2025-09-12 | 57.02% | +0.26 | 1.129 | $83.08 |
| 2025-09-11 | 54.64% | +2.54 | 1.168 | $81.41 |
| 2025-09-10 | 53.84% | +2.14 | 1.182 | $84.87 |
| 2025-09-09 | 54.90% | -2.11 | 1.146 | $88.42 |
| 2025-09-08 | 52.54% | +5.05 | 1.205 | $85.88 |
| 2025-09-05 | 53.79% | +2.13 | 1.168 | $87.35 |
| 2025-09-04 | 55.15% | +2.93 | 1.126 | $89.66 |
| 2025-09-03 | 53.62% | +4.34 | 1.152 | $85.31 |
| 2025-09-02 | 55.94% | +2.97 | 1.146 | $82.22 |
| 2025-08-29 | 56.81% | +1.19 | — | $88.46 |
| 2025-08-28 | 70.23% | +7.17 | 0.974 | $79.99 |
| 2025-08-27 | 80.12% | +1.98 | 0.896 | $77.59 |
| 2025-08-26 | 76.41% | +10.57 | 0.943 | $77.95 |
| 2025-08-25 | 83.51% | +6.71 | 0.868 | $77.39 |
| 2025-08-22 | 80.80% | +3.82 | 0.901 | $79.49 |
| 2025-08-21 | 79.92% | +7.25 | 0.904 | $74.49 |
| 2025-08-20 | 79.98% | +6.71 | 0.899 | $72.98 |
| 2025-08-19 | 76.94% | +6.39 | 0.910 | $73.86 |
| 2025-08-18 | 76.61% | +5.71 | 0.899 | $78.24 |
| 2025-08-15 | 75.60% | +4.45 | 0.904 | $78.72 |
| 2025-08-14 | 71.93% | +8.77 | 0.966 | $77.02 |
| 2025-08-13 | 78.06% | -0.69 | 0.874 | $77.71 |
| 2025-08-12 | 76.62% | +11.50 | 0.892 | $76.89 |
| 2025-08-11 | 79.93% | +5.60 | 0.876 | $72.97 |
| 2025-08-08 | 81.41% | +6.73 | 0.859 | $72.33 |
| 2025-08-07 | 83.99% | -2.61 | — | $78.96 |
| 2025-08-06 | 86.06% | +3.23 | 0.820 | $77.28 |
| 2025-08-05 | 78.52% | +4.33 | 0.884 | $74.86 |
| 2025-08-04 | 84.76% | +2.64 | 0.795 | $74.79 |
| 2025-08-01 | 81.28% | +1.67 | 0.839 | $66.41 |
| 2025-07-31 | 77.22% | +6.07 | 0.871 | $68.56 |
| 2025-07-30 | 65.61% | +0.29 | 1.002 | $67.43 |
| 2025-07-29 | 70.15% | +0.28 | 0.924 | $67.96 |
| 2025-07-28 | 68.98% | +7.00 | 0.933 | $67.51 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 345 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 69.57% | 63.17% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 68.96% | 62.20% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 68.77% | 61.92% | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 68.08% | 61.69% | 58.13% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 68.24% | 62.07% | 57.17% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 70.31% | 62.16% | 57.72% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 70.21% | 61.28% | 59.08% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 69.74% | 62.36% | 59.84% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 70.80% | 64.18% | 60.03% |
| ATM | 72.38% | 63.75% | 59.51% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 73.75% | 64.70% | 61.80% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 74.53% | 65.95% | 60.56% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 74.80% | 65.83% | 60.48% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 75.37% | 68.45% | 61.98% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 76.56% | 67.39% | 60.95% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 79.11% | 67.43% | 61.64% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 79.46% | 70.20% | 63.60% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | — | 71.56% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $65.79 | 72.38% | 76.56% | 68.24% | +8.32 | +0.02 | 13 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $65.71 | 63.75% | 67.39% | 62.07% | +5.32 | +0.98 | 26 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $65.58 | 59.51% | 60.95% | 57.17% | +3.78 | -0.45 | 18 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $65.80 | 59.92% | 64.58% | 56.50% | +8.09 | +0.62 | 26 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $65.75 | 60.70% | 63.82% | 57.11% | +6.71 | -0.24 | 26 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $65.85 | 58.82% | 60.38% | 56.38% | +4.00 | -0.44 | 20 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $65.72 | 57.38% | 62.70% | 59.12% | +3.58 | +3.53 | 20 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $66.08 | 56.46% | 59.18% | 53.99% | +5.19 | +0.13 | 27 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $66.31 | 59.71% | 63.83% | 57.52% | +6.31 | +0.97 | 23 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $66.48 | 59.34% | 62.56% | 57.22% | +5.34 | +0.55 | 28 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $67.19 | 60.00% | 63.14% | 59.72% | +3.42 | +1.43 | 26 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $68.71 | 58.84% | 62.86% | 58.17% | +4.70 | +1.68 | 19 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $65.79 | 72.38% | $65.94 | 13 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $65.71 | 63.75% | $66.08 | 26 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $65.58 | 59.51% | $66.12 | 18 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $65.80 | 59.92% | $66.58 | 26 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $65.75 | 60.70% | $66.79 | 26 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $65.85 | 58.82% | $67.05 | 20 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $65.72 | 57.38% | $67.04 | 20 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $66.08 | 56.46% | $68.02 | 27 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $66.31 | 59.71% | $69.66 | 23 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $66.48 | 59.34% | $70.75 | 28 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $67.19 | 60.00% | $73.87 | 26 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $68.71 | 58.84% | $79.63 | 19 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 60.62%
- 60 天
- 56.64%
- 90 天
- 58.98%
- 180 天
- 59.91%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 7 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 7 次中 3 次
- 43% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 16.5%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 35.6%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | 收盘后 | 13.1% | -2.2% | 0.17× |
| 2026-08-27 | 收盘后 | 14.0% | +0.3% | 0.02× |
| 2026-05-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-28 | 收盘后 | 16.0% | -8.0% | 0.50× |
| 2025-05-08 | 收盘后 | 16.4% | +35.6% | 2.16× |
| 2025-02-06 | 收盘后 | 17.3% | +19.1% | 1.11× |
| 2024-11-07 | 收盘后 | 20.3% | +50.8% | 2.50× |
| 2024-08-28 | 收盘后 | 18.7% | +132.9% | 7.10× |
| 2024-05-08 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-08 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-08 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。