股票 · 期权分析
AMAT 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $372.53
- 30D ATM IV
- 66.59%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 98
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +4.96
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.893
▲ +0.39 pts 较前一交易日
概览
AMAT 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 66.6%,相当于未来一个月约 ±19.1% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 98% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 4.96 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 11%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-11(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 4 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±6.8% 的波动,AMAT 实际平均波动 102.0%,4 次中有 0 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 66.59%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +4.96
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.41
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.893
对应 30 天内约 ±19.1% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.2%。
高于过去一年中 98% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 4.96 个点。
高于过去一年中 81% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.41 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 11%。
高于过去一年中 11% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 98%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 80%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 99%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 80%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $372.53
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $371.41
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 60.28%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 59.47%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 57.35%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 388,697
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.45
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 348 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 66.59% | +4.96 | 0.893 | $372.53 |
| 2026-11-09 | 66.20% | +6.44 | 0.887 | $370.55 |
| 2026-11-06 | 72.83% | +9.80 | 0.863 | $332.72 |
| 2026-11-05 | 76.06% | +8.12 | 0.847 | $319.25 |
| 2026-11-04 | 63.61% | +3.09 | 0.907 | $369.40 |
| 2026-11-03 | 65.33% | +4.04 | 0.873 | $381.92 |
| 2026-11-02 | 65.68% | +1.53 | 0.884 | $374.53 |
| 2026-10-30 | 61.03% | +2.23 | 0.923 | $390.09 |
| 2026-10-29 | 56.59% | +1.56 | 0.942 | $421.66 |
| 2026-10-28 | 58.75% | -1.03 | 0.917 | $416.00 |
| 2026-10-27 | 57.24% | +3.47 | 0.923 | $395.93 |
| 2026-10-26 | 57.61% | +0.57 | 0.911 | $387.59 |
| 2026-10-23 | 58.52% | +2.25 | 0.895 | $377.24 |
| 2026-10-22 | 60.35% | +2.73 | 0.875 | $375.58 |
| 2026-10-21 | 57.12% | +0.05 | 0.922 | $408.94 |
| 2026-10-20 | 57.20% | -0.23 | 0.903 | $404.98 |
| 2026-10-19 | 55.96% | +0.88 | 0.921 | $413.11 |
| 2026-10-16 | 56.00% | -1.42 | 0.929 | $409.29 |
| 2026-10-15 | 57.05% | +1.44 | 0.901 | $430.01 |
| 2026-10-14 | 58.22% | -0.22 | 0.894 | $446.63 |
| 2026-10-13 | 54.76% | +0.07 | 0.920 | $464.24 |
| 2026-10-09 | 53.77% | -0.35 | 0.985 | $507.03 |
| 2026-10-08 | 54.07% | -0.65 | 0.981 | $509.57 |
| 2026-10-07 | 51.52% | -0.97 | 1.038 | $520.65 |
| 2026-10-06 | 50.54% | -3.67 | 1.038 | $530.27 |
| 2026-10-05 | 52.17% | -0.86 | 1.024 | $542.28 |
| 2026-10-02 | 51.55% | -0.57 | 1.060 | $540.04 |
| 2026-10-01 | 53.55% | +0.68 | 1.040 | $529.30 |
| 2026-09-30 | 55.94% | -0.46 | 1.005 | $511.38 |
| 2026-09-29 | 57.94% | +1.03 | 0.997 | $512.01 |
| 2026-09-28 | 53.93% | -0.17 | 1.048 | $486.76 |
| 2026-09-25 | 53.92% | -0.86 | 1.031 | $485.00 |
| 2026-09-24 | 55.92% | -1.07 | 0.993 | $474.25 |
| 2026-09-23 | 53.74% | -0.76 | 1.047 | $474.38 |
| 2026-09-22 | 51.67% | -0.43 | 1.086 | $472.46 |
| 2026-09-21 | 54.14% | -1.72 | 1.047 | $464.24 |
| 2026-09-18 | 49.67% | -1.45 | 1.097 | $444.57 |
| 2026-09-17 | 49.25% | -0.14 | 1.083 | $417.40 |
| 2026-09-16 | 49.32% | +0.34 | 1.083 | $415.38 |
| 2026-09-15 | 50.34% | -0.27 | 1.074 | $421.17 |
| 2026-09-14 | 52.22% | -2.41 | 1.071 | $424.21 |
| 2026-09-11 | 50.25% | -0.04 | 1.128 | $456.49 |
| 2026-09-10 | 52.44% | -2.30 | 1.090 | $454.01 |
| 2026-09-09 | 53.72% | -3.37 | 1.077 | $468.85 |
| 2026-09-08 | 54.57% | -0.94 | 1.117 | $472.79 |
| 2026-09-04 | 50.74% | -2.02 | 1.124 | $454.71 |
| 2026-09-03 | 48.04% | -0.58 | 1.122 | $435.91 |
| 2026-09-02 | 47.64% | +0.36 | 1.121 | $438.46 |
| 2026-09-01 | 48.00% | -4.33 | 1.134 | $441.85 |
| 2026-08-31 | 48.57% | -2.22 | 1.110 | $458.39 |
| 2026-08-28 | 49.42% | -2.41 | 1.124 | $461.67 |
| 2026-08-27 | 51.52% | -0.45 | 1.124 | $482.36 |
| 2026-08-26 | 53.76% | -0.13 | 1.094 | $479.76 |
| 2026-08-25 | 53.43% | -1.33 | 1.115 | $480.04 |
| 2026-08-24 | 54.91% | -0.35 | 1.095 | $484.19 |
| 2026-08-21 | 54.06% | -0.33 | 1.119 | $492.32 |
| 2026-08-20 | 55.67% | +0.12 | 1.087 | $496.21 |
| 2026-08-19 | 55.81% | +0.60 | 1.095 | $496.17 |
| 2026-08-18 | 58.00% | +0.04 | 1.082 | $514.33 |
| 2026-08-17 | 57.60% | -1.28 | 1.075 | $535.31 |
| 2025-10-22 | 48.64% | +3.32 | 0.860 | $220.56 |
| 2025-10-21 | 47.32% | +2.92 | 0.884 | $226.00 |
| 2025-10-20 | 49.31% | +2.05 | 0.872 | $228.13 |
| 2025-10-17 | 50.26% | +3.19 | 0.855 | $224.99 |
| 2025-10-16 | 53.89% | +3.94 | 0.833 | $227.72 |
| 2025-10-15 | 49.04% | +2.12 | 0.895 | $227.58 |
| 2025-10-14 | 48.10% | +1.40 | 0.899 | $218.19 |
| 2025-10-10 | 48.32% | +4.24 | 0.915 | $209.95 |
| 2025-10-09 | 42.94% | +0.42 | 0.974 | $220.30 |
| 2025-10-08 | 44.25% | +1.88 | 0.964 | $217.51 |
| 2025-10-07 | 42.81% | +0.35 | 0.985 | $211.56 |
| 2025-10-06 | 41.92% | -1.78 | 1.001 | $223.91 |
| 2025-10-03 | 40.61% | +1.96 | 0.995 | $217.53 |
| 2025-10-02 | 41.15% | -0.36 | 0.989 | $223.59 |
| 2025-10-01 | 42.44% | +0.60 | 0.950 | $217.74 |
| 2025-09-30 | 39.46% | +2.32 | 0.991 | $204.74 |
| 2025-09-29 | 37.73% | +0.42 | 1.026 | $204.95 |
| 2025-09-26 | 37.13% | +1.83 | 1.030 | $203.92 |
| 2025-09-25 | 38.69% | +3.05 | 1.001 | $199.60 |
| 2025-09-24 | 39.60% | +1.44 | 0.989 | $201.44 |
| 2025-09-23 | 42.19% | +2.21 | 0.963 | $200.87 |
| 2025-09-22 | 39.44% | -1.04 | 1.008 | $200.52 |
| 2025-09-19 | 35.81% | +0.41 | 1.028 | $190.10 |
| 2025-09-18 | 37.01% | +0.81 | 1.025 | $189.76 |
| 2025-09-17 | 34.79% | +1.49 | 1.058 | $178.13 |
| 2025-09-16 | 35.20% | +1.14 | 1.023 | $173.54 |
| 2025-09-15 | 34.79% | +0.81 | 1.049 | $170.93 |
| 2025-09-12 | 32.92% | -0.44 | 1.075 | $167.80 |
| 2025-09-11 | 31.39% | +1.82 | 1.135 | $170.15 |
| 2025-09-10 | 30.26% | +2.01 | 1.151 | $163.42 |
| 2025-09-09 | 29.79% | +2.60 | 1.156 | $163.50 |
| 2025-09-08 | 29.68% | +1.33 | 1.162 | $162.05 |
| 2025-09-05 | 29.93% | +4.20 | 1.168 | $162.75 |
| 2025-09-04 | 29.07% | +3.07 | 1.189 | $158.24 |
| 2025-09-03 | 29.55% | +2.65 | 1.174 | $156.25 |
| 2025-09-02 | 29.20% | +3.10 | 1.209 | $157.57 |
| 2025-08-29 | 29.21% | +3.41 | 1.191 | $160.76 |
| 2025-08-28 | 27.90% | +2.28 | 1.197 | $165.27 |
| 2025-08-27 | 31.54% | +0.91 | 1.096 | $164.39 |
| 2025-08-26 | 27.89% | +2.57 | 1.153 | $164.51 |
| 2025-08-25 | 28.29% | +0.56 | 1.188 | $161.99 |
| 2025-08-22 | 28.93% | +2.19 | 1.157 | $162.49 |
| 2025-08-21 | 30.84% | +2.97 | 1.111 | $159.84 |
| 2025-08-20 | 31.27% | +2.46 | 1.099 | $160.96 |
| 2025-08-19 | 30.11% | +5.79 | 1.127 | $162.22 |
| 2025-08-18 | 31.00% | +1.96 | 1.105 | $163.53 |
| 2025-08-15 | 33.26% | +2.04 | 1.043 | $161.76 |
| 2025-08-14 | 38.58% | +1.54 | 0.913 | $188.24 |
| 2025-08-13 | 38.90% | +2.30 | 0.924 | $190.03 |
| 2025-08-12 | 37.55% | +3.35 | 0.934 | $188.45 |
| 2025-08-11 | 38.86% | +1.73 | 0.914 | $184.38 |
| 2025-08-08 | 38.35% | +3.40 | 0.937 | $184.87 |
| 2025-08-07 | 40.77% | +2.46 | 0.898 | $183.15 |
| 2025-08-06 | 37.92% | +1.37 | 0.953 | $178.14 |
| 2025-08-05 | 40.00% | +3.53 | 0.914 | $179.15 |
| 2025-08-04 | 36.86% | +7.11 | 0.953 | $182.82 |
| 2025-08-01 | 40.82% | +4.70 | 0.896 | $179.99 |
| 2025-07-31 | 39.15% | +3.53 | 0.915 | $180.06 |
| 2025-07-30 | 38.48% | +3.98 | 0.896 | $189.39 |
| 2025-07-29 | 36.75% | +4.60 | 0.949 | $188.41 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 348 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 116.42% | 83.06% | 70.58% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 116.36% | 81.69% | 68.62% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 116.56% | 81.66% | 69.42% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 117.05% | 81.91% | 69.65% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 117.34% | 82.31% | 69.24% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 117.89% | 82.82% | 71.29% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 118.50% | 83.52% | 70.42% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 119.07% | 84.08% | 72.45% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 119.83% | 84.66% | 72.71% |
| ATM | 120.08% | 85.40% | 71.54% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 120.41% | 85.74% | 73.63% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 121.02% | 86.37% | 73.61% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 121.62% | 87.02% | 74.07% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 122.30% | 87.81% | 74.70% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 122.96% | 88.46% | 75.21% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 123.99% | 89.37% | 76.23% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 125.66% | 90.38% | 78.04% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 128.05% | 92.00% | 79.42% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 132.81% | 95.77% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $370.95 | 120.08% | 122.96% | 117.34% | +5.62 | +0.07 | 82 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $370.80 | 85.40% | 88.46% | 82.31% | +6.16 | -0.01 | 70 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $371.35 | 71.54% | 75.21% | 69.24% | +5.97 | +0.68 | 50 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $371.15 | 68.50% | 70.43% | 66.02% | +4.41 | -0.28 | 48 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $371.45 | 66.34% | 69.35% | 64.32% | +5.03 | +0.50 | 46 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $371.88 | 64.87% | 66.79% | 62.34% | +4.45 | -0.30 | 35 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $371.78 | 63.72% | 65.62% | 60.62% | +5.00 | -0.60 | 43 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $373.85 | 59.39% | 62.13% | 57.74% | +4.40 | +0.54 | 42 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $375.32 | 59.49% | 61.91% | 57.56% | +4.35 | +0.25 | 50 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $375.96 | 58.87% | 61.05% | 56.75% | +4.30 | +0.03 | 55 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $376.28 | 58.17% | 59.85% | 56.33% | +3.51 | -0.08 | 55 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $380.21 | 56.33% | 59.27% | 55.22% | +4.05 | +0.91 | 77 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $382.29 | 56.58% | 58.09% | 55.30% | +2.79 | +0.11 | 50 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $370.95 | 120.08% | $373.15 | 82 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $370.80 | 85.40% | $374.52 | 70 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $371.35 | 71.54% | $375.81 | 50 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $371.15 | 68.50% | $376.92 | 48 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $371.45 | 66.34% | $378.46 | 46 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $371.88 | 64.87% | $380.12 | 35 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $371.78 | 63.72% | $380.99 | 43 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $373.85 | 59.39% | $385.97 | 42 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $375.32 | 59.49% | $394.16 | 50 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $375.96 | 58.87% | $399.71 | 55 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $376.28 | 58.17% | $404.69 | 55 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $380.21 | 56.33% | $418.18 | 77 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $382.29 | 56.58% | $438.14 | 50 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 66.59%
- 60 天
- 60.28%
- 90 天
- 59.47%
- 180 天
- 57.35%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 4 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 4 次中 0 次
- 0% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 6.8%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 102.0%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-13 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-14 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-12 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-13 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-14 | 收盘后 | 7.1% | +184.4% | 26.12× |
| 2025-05-15 | 收盘后 | 6.8% | +206.3% | 30.52× |
| 2025-02-13 | 收盘后 | 6.5% | -8.2% | 1.25× |
| 2024-11-14 | 收盘后 | 6.9% | -9.2% | 1.33× |
| 2024-08-15 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-15 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-16 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。