股票 · 期权分析
APO 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $122.74
- 30D ATM IV
- 36.70%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 51
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +3.44
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.014
▼ -0.43 pts 较前一交易日
概览
APO 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 36.7%,相当于未来一个月约 ±10.5% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 233 个交易日中 51% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 3.44 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2026-11-25(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 11 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±5.3% 的波动,APO 实际平均波动 4.8%,11 次中有 8 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 36.70%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +3.44
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.37
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.014
对应 30 天内约 ±10.5% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.3%。
高于过去一年中 51% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 3.44 个点。
高于过去一年中 27% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.37 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 1%。
高于过去一年中 58% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 233 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 51%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 13%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 60%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 17%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $122.74
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $122.39
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 35.80%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 37.22%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 37.85%
- 使用的到期日数
- 9
- 总未平仓量
- 151,462
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.91
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 345 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 36.70% | +3.44 | 1.014 | $122.74 |
| 2026-11-09 | 37.13% | +3.67 | 0.994 | $122.20 |
| 2026-11-06 | 39.83% | +2.56 | 0.954 | $116.75 |
| 2026-11-05 | 42.38% | +5.47 | 0.909 | $117.27 |
| 2026-11-04 | 36.66% | +3.30 | 0.987 | $122.76 |
| 2026-11-03 | 39.18% | +3.12 | 0.947 | $113.55 |
| 2026-11-02 | 44.32% | +3.43 | 0.874 | $119.46 |
| 2026-10-30 | 45.23% | +4.80 | 0.872 | $115.84 |
| 2026-10-29 | 41.96% | +5.11 | 0.898 | $118.56 |
| 2026-10-28 | 42.26% | +5.29 | 0.919 | $113.45 |
| 2026-10-27 | 42.98% | +4.62 | 0.897 | $114.26 |
| 2026-10-26 | 43.05% | +2.67 | 0.901 | $114.37 |
| 2026-10-23 | 42.45% | +4.79 | 0.914 | $112.83 |
| 2026-10-22 | 45.33% | +3.53 | 0.860 | $114.83 |
| 2026-10-21 | 42.36% | +2.27 | 0.903 | $111.69 |
| 2026-10-20 | 44.08% | +3.27 | 0.871 | $111.22 |
| 2026-10-19 | 44.19% | +4.32 | 0.886 | $110.95 |
| 2026-10-16 | 45.21% | +4.95 | 0.869 | $110.78 |
| 2026-10-15 | 44.61% | +3.97 | 0.867 | $111.87 |
| 2026-10-14 | 44.35% | +3.62 | 0.875 | $113.39 |
| 2026-10-13 | 42.50% | +4.02 | 0.880 | $116.28 |
| 2026-10-09 | 38.61% | +1.25 | 0.960 | $118.65 |
| 2026-10-08 | 41.92% | +2.55 | 0.906 | $115.30 |
| 2026-10-07 | 40.64% | +3.51 | 0.922 | $115.55 |
| 2026-10-06 | 37.81% | +3.36 | 0.966 | $115.95 |
| 2026-10-05 | 38.26% | +2.98 | 0.985 | $115.35 |
| 2026-10-02 | 38.35% | +2.61 | 0.988 | $114.02 |
| 2026-10-01 | — | — | — | $114.34 |
| 2026-09-30 | 36.83% | +4.10 | 0.997 | $116.06 |
| 2026-09-29 | 36.72% | +4.15 | 1.011 | $119.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | 38.82% | +3.01 | 0.962 | $119.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | 37.28% | +2.54 | 0.962 | $121.69 |
| 2026-09-24 | 36.90% | +2.78 | 1.008 | $120.69 |
| 2026-09-23 | 35.85% | +2.59 | 1.005 | $124.36 |
| 2026-09-22 | 35.80% | +2.89 | 1.037 | $124.15 |
| 2026-09-21 | 35.71% | +1.73 | 1.035 | $127.91 |
| 2026-09-18 | 34.18% | +2.50 | 1.102 | $125.91 |
| 2026-09-17 | 35.99% | +2.66 | 1.045 | $126.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | 35.26% | +2.83 | 1.071 | $124.53 |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — | — | $127.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | 34.48% | +1.36 | 1.114 | $128.31 |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — | — | $128.98 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | — | $127.91 |
| 2026-09-09 | 35.26% | +3.63 | 1.107 | $130.98 |
| 2026-09-08 | 35.65% | +2.46 | 1.053 | $131.81 |
| 2026-09-04 | 35.03% | +0.60 | 1.042 | $133.67 |
| 2026-09-03 | 32.64% | +3.24 | 1.119 | $134.49 |
| 2026-09-02 | 34.68% | +1.59 | 1.065 | $132.29 |
| 2026-09-01 | 35.20% | +2.25 | 1.061 | $131.69 |
| 2026-08-31 | 33.65% | +2.26 | 1.074 | $136.58 |
| 2026-08-28 | 32.38% | +2.17 | 1.074 | $135.04 |
| 2026-08-27 | 33.96% | +3.20 | 1.095 | $133.44 |
| 2026-08-26 | 34.29% | +1.44 | 1.043 | $133.67 |
| 2026-08-25 | 38.03% | +1.69 | 1.018 | $133.18 |
| 2026-08-24 | 33.74% | +2.72 | 1.108 | $132.79 |
| 2026-08-21 | 34.09% | +2.86 | 1.092 | $132.69 |
| 2026-08-20 | — | — | — | $129.98 |
| 2026-08-19 | 34.62% | +1.15 | 1.046 | $133.63 |
| 2026-08-18 | — | — | — | $133.85 |
| 2025-10-22 | 44.62% | +8.12 | 0.797 | $126.53 |
| 2025-10-21 | 42.87% | +4.14 | 0.899 | $125.98 |
| 2025-10-20 | — | — | — | $125.19 |
| 2025-10-17 | — | — | — | $121.38 |
| 2025-10-16 | 48.92% | +7.94 | 0.857 | $120.84 |
| 2025-10-15 | 43.03% | +6.03 | 0.885 | $127.70 |
| 2025-10-14 | 43.73% | +2.91 | 0.865 | $127.64 |
| 2025-10-10 | 46.72% | +8.89 | 0.857 | $118.22 |
| 2025-10-09 | 41.16% | +2.47 | 0.916 | $123.54 |
| 2025-10-08 | 41.87% | +3.43 | 0.902 | $124.80 |
| 2025-10-07 | 40.81% | +5.80 | 0.919 | $126.05 |
| 2025-10-06 | 40.70% | +4.99 | 0.931 | $126.70 |
| 2025-10-03 | 38.35% | +3.66 | 0.989 | $125.89 |
| 2025-10-02 | 35.07% | +8.94 | 1.072 | $127.23 |
| 2025-10-01 | 38.38% | +4.07 | 0.972 | $129.95 |
| 2025-09-30 | 37.73% | +4.21 | 0.978 | $133.27 |
| 2025-09-29 | 36.67% | +4.34 | 0.990 | $138.44 |
| 2025-09-26 | 36.52% | +4.47 | 0.984 | $137.63 |
| 2025-09-25 | 36.44% | +3.97 | 1.017 | $136.13 |
| 2025-09-24 | 36.30% | +2.73 | 0.995 | $137.16 |
| 2025-09-23 | 35.28% | +4.16 | 0.991 | $144.89 |
| 2025-09-22 | 33.92% | +4.53 | 1.007 | $143.96 |
| 2025-09-19 | — | — | — | $144.75 |
| 2025-09-18 | 32.68% | +1.81 | 1.022 | $143.49 |
| 2025-09-17 | — | — | — | $138.82 |
| 2025-09-16 | 34.17% | +4.38 | 1.010 | $140.05 |
| 2025-09-15 | 33.56% | +4.18 | 1.026 | $138.48 |
| 2025-09-12 | 32.26% | +4.53 | 1.051 | $138.03 |
| 2025-09-11 | 31.59% | +5.02 | 1.077 | $136.40 |
| 2025-09-10 | 33.16% | +4.20 | 1.036 | $133.64 |
| 2025-09-09 | 30.93% | +2.22 | 1.073 | $134.42 |
| 2025-09-08 | 31.11% | +4.87 | 1.085 | $134.44 |
| 2025-09-05 | 31.97% | +4.58 | 1.057 | $131.55 |
| 2025-09-04 | 32.04% | +4.92 | 1.032 | $134.76 |
| 2025-09-03 | 33.62% | +4.43 | 1.003 | $132.63 |
| 2025-09-02 | 32.16% | +4.22 | 1.046 | $135.84 |
| 2025-08-29 | 30.56% | +4.45 | 1.101 | $136.23 |
| 2025-08-28 | 31.47% | +3.14 | 1.055 | $136.39 |
| 2025-08-27 | 32.05% | +4.26 | 1.061 | $135.72 |
| 2025-08-26 | 32.68% | +4.28 | 1.044 | $134.40 |
| 2025-08-25 | 33.54% | +3.81 | 1.032 | $133.89 |
| 2025-08-22 | 32.88% | +4.17 | 1.044 | $134.20 |
| 2025-08-21 | 34.08% | +5.80 | 1.034 | $134.01 |
| 2025-08-20 | 33.71% | +5.17 | 1.027 | $135.34 |
| 2025-08-19 | 34.63% | +2.81 | 1.004 | $137.08 |
| 2025-08-18 | 32.77% | +4.32 | 1.044 | $139.39 |
| 2025-08-15 | 32.43% | +5.03 | 1.065 | $139.39 |
| 2025-08-14 | 32.31% | +4.95 | 1.051 | $140.68 |
| 2025-08-13 | 33.16% | +4.82 | 1.031 | $140.95 |
| 2025-08-12 | 31.56% | +4.09 | 1.059 | $144.60 |
| 2025-08-11 | 32.93% | +4.84 | 1.021 | $142.12 |
| 2025-08-08 | 32.56% | +5.30 | 1.041 | $141.97 |
| 2025-08-07 | 34.46% | +5.80 | 0.997 | $141.11 |
| 2025-08-06 | 32.97% | +4.61 | 1.013 | $145.87 |
| 2025-08-05 | 32.11% | +3.89 | 1.018 | $145.54 |
| 2025-08-04 | 37.93% | +4.47 | 0.921 | $142.02 |
| 2025-08-01 | 39.36% | +4.88 | 0.909 | $138.29 |
| 2025-07-31 | 36.97% | +3.80 | 0.922 | $145.32 |
| 2025-07-30 | 36.96% | +4.05 | 0.920 | $145.46 |
| 2025-07-29 | 36.82% | +3.94 | 0.917 | $147.82 |
| 2025-07-28 | 36.17% | +3.95 | 0.949 | $148.70 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 345 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27) · 24d (2026-12-04)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 10d | 17d | 24d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20Δ 看涨 | — | — | 36.28% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 36.79% | 35.57% | 36.33% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 37.70% | 36.56% | 36.66% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 38.82% | 36.49% | 37.01% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 39.37% | 36.95% | 38.14% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 38.97% | 36.30% | 37.98% |
| ATM | 39.98% | 37.17% | 37.32% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 41.06% | 37.53% | 37.35% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 41.37% | 37.58% | 37.44% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 41.54% | 37.91% | 37.82% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 41.97% | 37.57% | 38.34% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 41.54% | 37.90% | 38.42% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 43.85% | 38.37% | — |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 43.35% | 40.31% | — |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 44.39% | — | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $122.35 | 39.98% | 41.54% | 36.79% | +4.75 | -0.82 | 15 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $122.30 | 37.17% | 37.90% | 35.57% | +2.33 | -0.43 | 19 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $122.35 | 37.32% | 38.42% | 36.33% | +2.09 | +0.06 | 15 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $122.46 | 36.18% | 39.12% | 34.51% | +4.60 | +0.64 | 9 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $122.83 | 35.74% | 38.23% | 34.30% | +3.93 | +0.53 | 10 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $123.53 | 37.65% | 40.31% | 34.96% | +5.36 | -0.01 | 13 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $123.88 | 36.90% | 40.88% | 35.63% | +5.25 | +1.36 | 16 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $124.02 | 38.28% | 39.96% | 36.18% | +3.78 | -0.21 | 23 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $125.26 | 37.81% | 40.25% | 35.98% | +4.27 | +0.31 | 28 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
9 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $122.35 | 39.98% | $122.62 | 15 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $122.30 | 37.17% | $122.69 | 19 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $122.35 | 37.32% | $122.91 | 15 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $122.46 | 36.18% | $123.30 | 9 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $122.83 | 35.74% | $124.26 | 10 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $123.53 | 37.65% | $125.98 | 13 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $123.88 | 36.90% | $126.90 | 16 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $124.02 | 38.28% | $129.60 | 23 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $125.26 | 37.81% | $133.13 | 28 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 36.70%
- 60 天
- 35.80%
- 90 天
- 37.22%
- 180 天
- 37.85%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 345 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 11 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 11 次中 8 次
- 73% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 5.3%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 4.8%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 开盘前 | 7.2% | -4.9% | 0.69× |
| 2026-10-05 | 收盘后 | 4.3% | +0.5% | 0.12× |
| 2026-09-24 | 未说明时间 | 3.0% | +0.8% | 0.27× |
| 2026-08-04 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-09 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-04 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-02 | 开盘前 | 3.4% | -2.1% | 0.61× |
| 2025-08-05 | 开盘前 | 6.8% | +2.5% | 0.37× |
| 2025-07-01 | 收盘后 | 2.7% | -5.5% | 2.00× |
| 2025-05-02 | 开盘前 | 9.4% | -1.8% | 0.19× |
| 2025-04-02 | 收盘后 | 4.7% | -5.4% | 1.17× |
| 2025-02-04 | 开盘前 | 7.7% | -2.7% | 0.35× |
| 2025-01-02 | 收盘后 | 1.6% | -19.3% | 12.20× |
| 2024-11-05 | 开盘前 | 7.2% | +7.1% | 0.98× |
| 2024-08-01 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-02 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-08 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-01 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。