股票 · 期权分析
BKNG 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $159.26
- 30D ATM IV
- 39.69%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 79
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +2.99
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.983
▲ +0.26 pts 较前一交易日
概览
BKNG 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 39.7%,相当于未来一个月约 ±11.4% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 198 个交易日中 79% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 2.99 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 2%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-02(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±6.8% 的波动,BKNG 实际平均波动 19.5%,6 次中有 4 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 39.69%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +2.99
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.81
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.983
对应 30 天内约 ±11.4% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.5%。
高于过去一年中 79% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 2.99 个点。
高于过去一年中 29% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.81 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 2%。
高于过去一年中 56% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 198 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 79%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 50%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 85%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 53%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $159.26
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $160.70
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 38.95%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 39.00%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 39.26%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 325,345
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.50
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 348 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 39.69% | +2.99 | 0.983 | $159.26 |
| 2026-11-09 | 39.43% | +2.12 | 0.997 | $163.49 |
| 2026-11-06 | 38.65% | +2.51 | 0.932 | $160.67 |
| 2026-11-05 | 40.46% | +2.17 | 0.943 | $168.72 |
| 2026-11-04 | 39.24% | +3.67 | 0.936 | $170.97 |
| 2026-11-03 | 50.99% | +3.39 | 0.836 | $155.67 |
| 2026-11-02 | 49.43% | +2.48 | 0.896 | $153.75 |
| 2026-10-30 | 45.77% | +0.87 | 0.876 | $148.13 |
| 2026-10-29 | 44.51% | +1.65 | 0.906 | $150.43 |
| 2026-10-28 | 45.05% | +1.70 | 0.941 | $147.94 |
| 2026-10-27 | 46.72% | +2.34 | 0.885 | $150.14 |
| 2026-10-26 | — | — | — | $153.14 |
| 2026-10-23 | 46.74% | +1.58 | 0.849 | $155.83 |
| 2026-10-22 | 47.14% | +3.02 | 0.855 | $161.10 |
| 2026-10-21 | 45.74% | +1.49 | 0.853 | $158.38 |
| 2026-10-20 | 45.41% | +1.47 | 0.850 | $163.92 |
| 2026-10-19 | 44.29% | +3.18 | 0.893 | $162.60 |
| 2026-10-16 | 44.54% | +1.47 | 0.836 | $163.45 |
| 2026-10-15 | 43.22% | +1.66 | 0.916 | $165.80 |
| 2026-10-14 | 43.77% | +1.44 | 0.905 | $160.68 |
| 2026-10-13 | 43.79% | +2.69 | 0.900 | $157.51 |
| 2026-10-09 | 45.38% | +1.43 | 0.891 | $160.34 |
| 2026-10-08 | 47.23% | +1.72 | 0.932 | $159.97 |
| 2026-10-07 | 46.93% | +1.39 | 0.865 | $155.87 |
| 2026-10-06 | 45.66% | +1.21 | 0.898 | $157.63 |
| 2026-10-05 | 43.98% | +1.76 | 0.943 | $158.33 |
| 2026-10-02 | 39.54% | +3.08 | 1.021 | $159.02 |
| 2026-10-01 | 42.17% | +1.39 | 0.952 | $160.28 |
| 2026-09-30 | 43.04% | +2.17 | 0.917 | $162.91 |
| 2026-09-29 | 42.02% | +0.87 | 0.975 | $162.34 |
| 2026-09-28 | 41.74% | +2.29 | 0.976 | $163.87 |
| 2026-09-25 | 38.21% | +1.83 | 1.081 | $163.95 |
| 2026-09-24 | 39.54% | +1.47 | 1.083 | $157.41 |
| 2026-09-23 | 39.95% | +1.44 | 1.011 | $155.90 |
| 2026-09-22 | 38.28% | +2.27 | 1.070 | $164.22 |
| 2026-09-21 | 36.92% | +0.72 | 1.084 | $168.52 |
| 2026-09-18 | 36.13% | +2.03 | 1.106 | $167.90 |
| 2026-09-17 | 36.30% | +2.78 | 1.089 | $170.52 |
| 2026-09-16 | 34.75% | +1.23 | 1.138 | $171.40 |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — | — | $171.32 |
| 2026-09-14 | — | — | — | $175.35 |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — | — | $173.92 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | — | $174.33 |
| 2026-09-09 | — | — | — | $173.43 |
| 2026-09-08 | — | — | — | $180.30 |
| 2026-09-04 | 30.18% | +6.07 | 1.140 | $193.29 |
| 2026-09-03 | — | — | — | $195.13 |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — | — | $199.60 |
| 2026-09-01 | — | — | — | $195.69 |
| 2026-08-31 | — | — | — | $199.09 |
| 2026-08-28 | — | — | — | $205.63 |
| 2026-08-27 | — | — | — | $202.56 |
| 2026-08-26 | — | — | — | $208.89 |
| 2026-08-25 | — | — | — | $213.78 |
| 2026-08-24 | — | — | — | $213.36 |
| 2026-08-21 | 28.96% | +1.66 | 1.154 | $209.62 |
| 2026-08-20 | — | — | — | $209.87 |
| 2026-08-19 | — | — | — | $213.00 |
| 2026-08-18 | — | — | — | $208.25 |
| 2026-08-17 | — | — | — | $204.76 |
| 2025-10-22 | 34.03% | +3.85 | 0.841 | $5,230.59 |
| 2025-10-21 | 33.97% | +4.58 | 0.839 | $5,286.00 |
| 2025-10-20 | 33.52% | +5.83 | 0.868 | $5,141.88 |
| 2025-10-17 | 35.59% | +5.28 | 0.846 | $5,070.02 |
| 2025-10-16 | 38.48% | +5.29 | 0.828 | $4,952.31 |
| 2025-10-15 | 36.58% | +3.83 | 0.843 | $5,080.86 |
| 2025-10-14 | 35.29% | +5.68 | 0.837 | $5,280.14 |
| 2025-10-10 | 37.13% | +5.09 | 0.825 | $5,164.93 |
| 2025-10-09 | 36.27% | +5.45 | 0.831 | $5,191.93 |
| 2025-10-08 | 37.10% | +4.07 | 0.819 | $5,131.23 |
| 2025-10-07 | 37.10% | +5.78 | 0.820 | $5,242.00 |
| 2025-10-06 | 36.38% | +6.01 | 0.821 | $5,419.87 |
| 2025-10-03 | 36.82% | +5.42 | 0.812 | $5,418.05 |
| 2025-10-02 | 35.86% | +4.80 | 0.825 | $5,424.55 |
| 2025-10-01 | — | — | — | $5,350.56 |
| 2025-09-30 | 33.98% | +2.93 | 0.849 | $5,399.27 |
| 2025-09-29 | 31.00% | +3.70 | 0.917 | $5,454.81 |
| 2025-09-26 | 25.99% | +4.79 | 1.073 | $5,548.00 |
| 2025-09-25 | 29.83% | +6.03 | 0.963 | $5,575.73 |
| 2025-09-24 | 27.42% | +6.10 | 1.046 | $5,525.60 |
| 2025-09-23 | 27.23% | +5.22 | 1.054 | $5,509.02 |
| 2025-09-22 | 27.05% | +5.06 | 1.046 | $5,457.13 |
| 2025-09-19 | 25.49% | +4.21 | 1.098 | $5,444.44 |
| 2025-09-18 | 25.74% | +4.20 | 1.103 | $5,442.88 |
| 2025-09-17 | — | — | — | $5,553.70 |
| 2025-09-16 | 25.74% | +4.62 | 1.081 | $5,475.01 |
| 2025-09-15 | 25.24% | +4.28 | 1.087 | $5,559.83 |
| 2025-09-12 | 23.87% | +4.27 | 1.153 | $5,458.32 |
| 2025-09-11 | — | — | — | $5,498.00 |
| 2025-09-10 | — | — | — | $5,474.81 |
| 2025-09-09 | 25.67% | +4.76 | 1.051 | $5,571.83 |
| 2025-09-08 | 22.83% | +4.12 | 1.153 | $5,569.70 |
| 2025-09-05 | 22.85% | +4.42 | 1.185 | $5,505.80 |
| 2025-09-04 | — | — | — | $5,585.86 |
| 2025-09-03 | 22.87% | +4.74 | 1.172 | $5,582.95 |
| 2025-09-02 | 23.70% | +4.70 | 1.150 | $5,505.55 |
| 2025-08-29 | 23.94% | +4.82 | 1.132 | $5,599.05 |
| 2025-08-28 | — | — | — | $5,651.99 |
| 2025-08-27 | — | — | — | $5,615.68 |
| 2025-08-26 | 22.67% | +4.04 | 1.128 | $5,705.68 |
| 2025-08-25 | 22.26% | +4.09 | 1.140 | $5,703.60 |
| 2025-08-22 | 20.98% | +4.41 | 1.180 | $5,720.87 |
| 2025-08-21 | — | — | — | $5,710.74 |
| 2025-08-20 | 22.54% | +5.06 | 1.121 | $5,639.78 |
| 2025-08-19 | 23.54% | +5.23 | 1.138 | $5,584.08 |
| 2025-08-18 | 22.96% | +5.61 | 1.117 | $5,532.00 |
| 2025-08-15 | — | — | — | $5,454.29 |
| 2025-08-14 | — | — | — | $5,484.77 |
| 2025-08-13 | — | — | — | $5,447.92 |
| 2025-08-12 | 22.23% | +4.81 | 1.108 | $5,461.54 |
| 2025-08-11 | 24.10% | +2.94 | 1.053 | $5,364.25 |
| 2025-08-08 | 23.17% | +3.70 | 1.087 | $5,405.91 |
| 2025-08-07 | 23.90% | +3.48 | 1.069 | $5,432.10 |
| 2025-08-06 | — | — | — | $5,536.31 |
| 2025-08-05 | 24.32% | +5.24 | 1.064 | $5,457.86 |
| 2025-08-04 | 24.14% | +4.85 | 1.049 | $5,476.09 |
| 2025-08-01 | 26.37% | +6.21 | 1.007 | $5,386.29 |
| 2025-07-31 | — | — | — | $5,504.06 |
| 2025-07-30 | — | — | — | $5,612.91 |
| 2025-07-29 | 28.62% | +4.07 | 0.903 | $5,590.77 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 348 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Δ 看涨 | 48.92% | — | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 49.15% | — | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 49.04% | 42.41% | — |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 48.86% | 41.63% | 40.03% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 49.11% | 41.83% | 40.15% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 49.58% | 42.69% | 40.17% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 49.71% | 43.07% | 40.22% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 49.69% | 43.43% | 40.41% |
| ATM | 49.67% | 43.93% | 40.72% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 49.91% | 44.09% | 40.93% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 50.86% | 44.14% | 41.04% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 51.62% | 44.04% | 41.10% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 51.87% | 43.82% | 41.07% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 52.03% | 43.54% | 40.90% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 52.09% | 43.89% | — |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 52.14% | 44.80% | — |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 52.96% | 45.90% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $160.15 | 49.67% | 52.03% | 48.86% | +3.17 | +0.77 | 9 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $160.20 | 43.93% | 43.54% | 41.63% | +1.90 | -1.34 | 11 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $160.35 | 40.72% | 40.90% | 40.03% | +0.87 | -0.25 | 7 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $160.40 | 39.93% | 40.75% | 39.03% | +1.72 | -0.04 | 8 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $160.75 | 39.66% | 42.16% | 39.00% | +3.16 | +0.92 | 9 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $160.85 | 37.76% | 41.84% | 37.14% | +4.70 | +1.73 | 28 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $160.80 | 38.86% | 40.56% | 38.35% | +2.21 | +0.59 | 7 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $161.04 | 38.97% | 40.53% | 37.25% | +3.28 | -0.09 | 55 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $163.17 | 39.03% | 42.24% | 38.17% | +4.07 | +1.17 | 49 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $162.66 | 39.77% | 41.00% | 38.87% | +2.13 | +0.17 | 17 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $163.54 | 38.63% | 41.95% | 38.40% | +3.54 | +1.54 | 65 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $164.47 | 40.99% | 42.38% | 37.39% | +4.99 | -1.10 | 57 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $160.15 | 49.67% | $160.31 | 9 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $160.20 | 43.93% | $160.62 | 11 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $160.35 | 40.72% | $160.97 | 7 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $160.40 | 39.93% | $161.24 | 8 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $160.75 | 39.66% | $161.83 | 9 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $160.85 | 37.76% | $162.05 | 28 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $160.80 | 38.86% | $162.27 | 7 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $161.04 | 38.97% | $163.27 | 55 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $163.17 | 39.03% | $167.62 | 49 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $162.66 | 39.77% | $168.28 | 17 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $163.54 | 38.63% | $171.03 | 65 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $164.47 | 40.99% | $176.67 | 57 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 39.69%
- 60 天
- 38.95%
- 90 天
- 39.00%
- 180 天
- 39.26%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 4 次
- 67% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 6.8%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 19.5%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 收盘后 | 8.8% | +9.8% | 1.12× |
| 2026-10-27 | 未说明时间 | 4.3% | -1.5% | 0.34× |
| 2026-08-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-18 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-29 | 收盘后 | 5.8% | -96.3% | 16.61× |
| 2025-04-29 | 收盘后 | 7.1% | +3.9% | 0.54× |
| 2025-02-20 | 收盘后 | 7.9% | -0.5% | 0.07× |
| 2024-10-30 | 收盘后 | 6.6% | +4.8% | 0.72× |
| 2024-08-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-22 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。