股票 · 期权分析
CVX 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $211.22
- 30D ATM IV
- 28.74%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 84
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +2.66
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.975
▼ -0.46 pts 较前一交易日
概览
CVX 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 28.7%,相当于未来一个月约 ±8.2% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 84% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 2.66 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 2%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-29(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±5.1% 的波动,CVX 实际平均波动 2.2%,5 次中有 4 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 28.74%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +2.66
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.10
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.975
对应 30 天内约 ±8.2% 的波动，平常一天约 ±1.8%。
高于过去一年中 84% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 2.66 个点。
高于过去一年中 63% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.10 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 2%。
高于过去一年中 37% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 84%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 28%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 89%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 32%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $211.22
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $210.17
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 27.87%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 28.03%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 28.21%
- 使用的到期日数
- 11
- 总未平仓量
- 383,106
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.58
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 348 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 28.74% | +2.66 | 0.975 | $211.22 |
| 2026-11-09 | 29.20% | +2.99 | 0.960 | $210.78 |
| 2026-11-06 | 30.16% | +2.64 | 0.969 | $212.61 |
| 2026-11-05 | 32.06% | +2.30 | 0.919 | $212.93 |
| 2026-11-04 | 30.03% | +3.03 | 0.952 | $216.96 |
| 2026-11-03 | 30.40% | +2.29 | 0.952 | $225.27 |
| 2026-11-02 | 31.04% | +2.25 | 0.957 | $227.77 |
| 2026-10-30 | 29.34% | +1.94 | 0.972 | $235.52 |
| 2026-10-29 | 29.03% | +0.87 | 0.956 | $231.46 |
| 2026-10-28 | 29.26% | +1.39 | 0.961 | $229.20 |
| 2026-10-27 | 30.02% | +0.88 | 0.941 | $228.23 |
| 2026-10-26 | 29.57% | +1.24 | 0.946 | $232.01 |
| 2026-10-23 | 32.29% | -0.09 | 0.893 | $233.21 |
| 2026-10-22 | 30.61% | +1.66 | 0.918 | $226.68 |
| 2026-10-21 | 29.67% | +0.96 | 0.910 | $226.78 |
| 2026-10-20 | 30.02% | +1.85 | 0.912 | $225.71 |
| 2026-10-19 | 28.94% | +1.30 | 0.933 | $224.37 |
| 2026-10-16 | 28.78% | +1.39 | 0.940 | $224.99 |
| 2026-10-15 | 28.88% | +0.78 | 0.929 | $219.32 |
| 2026-10-14 | 29.44% | +1.10 | 0.924 | $222.04 |
| 2026-10-13 | 28.32% | +1.64 | 0.946 | $217.73 |
| 2026-10-09 | 28.05% | +1.06 | 0.971 | $211.98 |
| 2026-10-08 | 28.47% | +1.34 | 0.960 | $211.55 |
| 2026-10-07 | 27.93% | +1.40 | 0.957 | $205.15 |
| 2026-10-06 | 27.94% | +1.37 | 0.958 | $207.58 |
| 2026-10-05 | 28.03% | +1.89 | 0.961 | $206.47 |
| 2026-10-02 | 27.90% | +1.45 | 0.971 | $206.69 |
| 2026-10-01 | 27.98% | +1.32 | 0.972 | $207.10 |
| 2026-09-30 | 27.82% | +0.86 | 0.978 | $204.21 |
| 2026-09-29 | 28.31% | +1.20 | 0.967 | $204.38 |
| 2026-09-28 | 28.16% | +1.80 | 0.980 | $206.37 |
| 2026-09-25 | 26.64% | +1.53 | 1.028 | $204.45 |
| 2026-09-24 | 26.71% | +1.28 | 1.013 | $205.65 |
| 2026-09-23 | 26.84% | +1.70 | 1.028 | $205.51 |
| 2026-09-22 | 26.49% | +0.42 | 1.029 | $202.41 |
| 2026-09-21 | 27.12% | +0.54 | 1.018 | $203.67 |
| 2026-09-18 | 26.29% | +1.04 | 1.062 | $209.51 |
| 2026-09-17 | 26.39% | +0.69 | 1.062 | $211.57 |
| 2026-09-16 | 27.79% | +1.18 | 1.039 | $211.54 |
| 2026-09-15 | 28.48% | +0.30 | 1.017 | $217.77 |
| 2026-09-14 | 27.26% | +0.81 | 1.029 | $212.17 |
| 2026-09-11 | 26.01% | +1.11 | 1.048 | $214.06 |
| 2026-09-10 | 26.40% | +0.50 | 1.053 | $212.76 |
| 2026-09-09 | 26.04% | +0.42 | 1.055 | $213.81 |
| 2026-09-08 | 26.40% | -0.52 | 1.039 | $209.80 |
| 2026-09-04 | 24.56% | +0.03 | 1.099 | $208.60 |
| 2026-09-03 | 24.41% | -0.12 | 1.083 | $211.32 |
| 2026-09-02 | 25.25% | -0.13 | 1.076 | $211.78 |
| 2026-09-01 | 26.82% | +1.55 | 1.046 | $211.05 |
| 2026-08-31 | 25.11% | +0.41 | 1.077 | $206.14 |
| 2026-08-28 | 24.69% | +0.82 | 1.063 | $201.86 |
| 2026-08-27 | 24.22% | +0.81 | 1.089 | $199.77 |
| 2026-08-26 | 25.15% | -0.30 | 1.056 | $200.21 |
| 2026-08-25 | 25.99% | +0.65 | 1.020 | $199.89 |
| 2026-08-24 | 25.28% | +0.84 | 1.048 | $203.09 |
| 2026-08-21 | 24.16% | +0.20 | 1.098 | $205.27 |
| 2026-08-20 | 25.08% | +0.12 | 1.084 | $205.77 |
| 2026-08-19 | 24.97% | +0.38 | 1.073 | $205.76 |
| 2026-08-18 | 25.05% | +0.29 | 1.056 | $205.74 |
| 2026-08-17 | 25.93% | -0.54 | 1.056 | $202.70 |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.59% | +3.21 | 0.867 | $155.57 |
| 2025-10-21 | 24.61% | +2.73 | 0.906 | $153.79 |
| 2025-10-20 | 24.55% | +3.14 | 0.913 | $154.48 |
| 2025-10-17 | 25.24% | +2.65 | 0.916 | $153.08 |
| 2025-10-16 | 26.79% | +3.85 | 0.884 | $151.71 |
| 2025-10-15 | 25.81% | +2.86 | 0.904 | $152.11 |
| 2025-10-14 | 24.32% | +0.22 | 0.960 | $152.39 |
| 2025-10-10 | 26.68% | +1.78 | 0.916 | $148.90 |
| 2025-10-09 | 23.76% | +1.55 | 0.955 | $151.64 |
| 2025-10-08 | 24.28% | -0.15 | 0.933 | $153.74 |
| 2025-10-07 | 24.09% | +2.18 | 0.945 | $154.91 |
| 2025-10-06 | 23.57% | +2.66 | 0.961 | $154.02 |
| 2025-10-03 | 23.18% | +1.75 | 0.983 | $153.55 |
| 2025-10-02 | 23.14% | +1.78 | 0.982 | $153.37 |
| 2025-10-01 | 22.90% | +1.90 | 0.986 | $154.58 |
| 2025-09-30 | 22.97% | +2.08 | 0.983 | $155.29 |
| 2025-09-29 | 22.38% | +1.95 | 1.015 | $156.10 |
| 2025-09-26 | 21.05% | +2.00 | 1.054 | $160.16 |
| 2025-09-25 | 21.76% | +2.06 | 1.041 | $160.72 |
| 2025-09-24 | 21.40% | +2.48 | 1.067 | $159.18 |
| 2025-09-23 | 19.94% | +4.64 | 1.139 | $157.42 |
| 2025-09-22 | 21.13% | +1.67 | 1.056 | $156.05 |
| 2025-09-19 | 20.44% | +1.84 | 1.098 | $156.21 |
| 2025-09-18 | 20.79% | +1.61 | 1.071 | $158.84 |
| 2025-09-17 | 20.48% | +1.95 | 1.085 | $160.09 |
| 2025-09-16 | 20.82% | +1.62 | 1.069 | $159.54 |
| 2025-09-15 | 20.72% | +1.76 | 1.087 | $157.31 |
| 2025-09-12 | 20.40% | -0.09 | 1.095 | $157.11 |
| 2025-09-11 | 20.06% | +0.51 | 1.121 | $158.25 |
| 2025-09-10 | 20.75% | +2.49 | 1.076 | $157.79 |
| 2025-09-09 | 21.04% | +2.33 | 1.077 | $154.85 |
| 2025-09-08 | 20.00% | +1.94 | 1.110 | $154.00 |
| 2025-09-05 | 21.36% | +2.54 | 1.049 | $153.66 |
| 2025-09-04 | 20.13% | +1.36 | 1.107 | $157.69 |
| 2025-09-03 | 19.94% | +2.72 | 1.119 | $158.06 |
| 2025-09-02 | 18.84% | +2.60 | 1.150 | $161.83 |
| 2025-08-29 | 18.98% | +1.37 | 1.135 | $160.60 |
| 2025-08-28 | 19.25% | +1.69 | 1.136 | $159.32 |
| 2025-08-27 | 19.06% | +2.54 | 1.143 | $159.24 |
| 2025-08-26 | 19.50% | +2.00 | 1.137 | $157.36 |
| 2025-08-25 | 18.08% | +2.93 | 1.187 | $158.20 |
| 2025-08-22 | 18.37% | +1.63 | 1.192 | $158.18 |
| 2025-08-21 | 20.16% | +1.66 | 1.119 | $155.55 |
| 2025-08-20 | 19.76% | +1.25 | 1.142 | $153.22 |
| 2025-08-19 | 19.92% | +1.78 | 1.129 | $152.00 |
| 2025-08-18 | 20.20% | +1.49 | 1.103 | $155.32 |
| 2025-08-15 | 20.22% | +2.01 | 1.108 | $156.55 |
| 2025-08-14 | 19.90% | +1.59 | 1.122 | $155.16 |
| 2025-08-13 | 19.65% | +3.38 | 1.126 | $155.87 |
| 2025-08-12 | 19.48% | +2.20 | 1.135 | $154.44 |
| 2025-08-11 | 20.61% | +2.69 | 1.083 | $153.45 |
| 2025-08-08 | 19.77% | +1.82 | 1.102 | $155.01 |
| 2025-08-07 | 21.32% | +1.85 | 1.061 | $153.16 |
| 2025-08-06 | 21.83% | +2.40 | 1.030 | $152.78 |
| 2025-08-05 | 20.64% | +2.21 | 1.097 | $153.04 |
| 2025-08-04 | 21.94% | +2.41 | 1.018 | $151.04 |
| 2025-08-01 | 23.02% | +3.37 | 0.973 | $151.40 |
| 2025-07-31 | 22.16% | +3.38 | 1.000 | $151.64 |
| 2025-07-30 | 22.68% | +3.26 | 0.975 | $153.56 |
| 2025-07-29 | 23.22% | +1.66 | 0.928 | $157.03 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 348 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 33.31% | 30.23% | 27.40% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 32.35% | 29.82% | 27.32% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 31.94% | 29.62% | 26.92% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 31.91% | 29.61% | 26.86% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 31.92% | 29.61% | 27.12% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 31.93% | 29.79% | 27.33% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 32.06% | 30.10% | 27.59% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 32.26% | 30.53% | 28.24% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 32.46% | 31.06% | 28.70% |
| ATM | 32.66% | 31.72% | 28.68% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 32.90% | 31.89% | 28.83% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 33.16% | 31.95% | 29.12% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 33.48% | 32.14% | 29.20% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 33.86% | 32.45% | 29.24% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 34.30% | 32.82% | 29.39% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 34.80% | 33.25% | 29.94% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 35.48% | 33.81% | 30.79% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 36.59% | 34.62% | 32.17% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 37.82% | 35.95% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $211.44 | 32.66% | 34.30% | 31.92% | +2.38 | +0.44 | 14 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $210.23 | 31.72% | 32.82% | 29.61% | +3.22 | -0.51 | 19 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $210.10 | 28.68% | 29.39% | 27.12% | +2.27 | -0.42 | 16 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $210.13 | 28.58% | 29.58% | 27.41% | +2.17 | -0.09 | 11 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $210.18 | 28.77% | 30.25% | 27.52% | +2.72 | +0.12 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $210.43 | 28.42% | 29.79% | 27.75% | +2.04 | +0.36 | 11 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $210.45 | 28.69% | 30.41% | 27.52% | +2.89 | +0.27 | 10 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $211.21 | 27.66% | 28.84% | 26.97% | +1.87 | +0.25 | 16 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $211.09 | 28.34% | 29.36% | 27.41% | +1.94 | +0.04 | 21 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $211.95 | 28.16% | 29.40% | 27.49% | +1.91 | +0.29 | 26 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $213.25 | 27.84% | 29.36% | 27.51% | +1.86 | +0.60 | 30 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
11 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $211.44 | 32.66% | $211.53 | 14 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $210.23 | 31.72% | $210.52 | 19 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $210.10 | 28.68% | $210.50 | 16 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $210.13 | 28.58% | $210.69 | 11 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $210.18 | 28.77% | $210.92 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $210.43 | 28.42% | $211.31 | 11 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $210.45 | 28.69% | $211.50 | 10 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $211.21 | 27.66% | $212.67 | 16 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $211.09 | 28.34% | $214.11 | 21 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $211.95 | 28.16% | $217.05 | 26 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $213.25 | 27.84% | $220.40 | 30 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 28.74%
- 60 天
- 27.87%
- 90 天
- 28.03%
- 180 天
- 28.21%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 4 次
- 80% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 5.1%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 2.2%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 开盘前 | 4.9% | +1.8% | 0.35× |
| 2026-07-31 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-09 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-31 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-01 | 开盘前 | 4.3% | -0.2% | 0.04× |
| 2025-05-02 | 开盘前 | 6.0% | +1.6% | 0.27× |
| 2025-01-31 | 开盘前 | 4.4% | -4.6% | 1.03× |
| 2024-11-01 | 开盘前 | 5.6% | +2.9% | 0.51× |
| 2024-08-02 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-26 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-02 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-02 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-27 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。