股票 · 期权分析
DIS 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $119.21
- 30D ATM IV
- 32.96%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 76
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- -0.52
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.870
▼ -1.63 pts 较前一交易日
概览
DIS 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 33.0%,相当于未来一个月约 ±9.4% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 251 个交易日中 76% 的读数。
它的 25-delta call 比 put 的隐含波动率高 0.52 个波动率点,比过去一年中 99% 的交易日都更接近。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 13%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2026-11-17 开盘前。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±7.1% 的波动,DIS 实际平均波动 4.7%,5 次中有 4 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 32.96%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- -0.52
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.78
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.870
对应 30 天内约 ±9.4% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.1%。
高于过去一年中 76% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，call 比 put的隐含波动率高 0.52 个点。
低于过去一年几乎所有的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.78 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 13%。
高于过去一年中 29% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 251 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 76%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 38%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 76%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 38%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $119.21
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $118.88
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 29.03%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 28.69%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 28.96%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 389,899
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.54
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 347 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 32.96% | -0.52 | 0.870 | $119.21 |
| 2026-11-09 | 34.59% | +1.97 | 0.841 | $119.12 |
| 2026-11-06 | 34.24% | +2.11 | 0.847 | $116.75 |
| 2026-11-05 | 35.12% | +1.57 | 0.828 | $117.22 |
| 2026-11-04 | 33.95% | +2.01 | 0.840 | $118.95 |
| 2026-11-03 | 35.48% | +3.80 | 0.829 | $114.18 |
| 2026-11-02 | 33.60% | +2.88 | 0.884 | $113.11 |
| 2026-10-30 | 35.59% | +2.22 | 0.816 | $110.94 |
| 2026-10-29 | 33.76% | +1.27 | 0.845 | $110.91 |
| 2026-10-28 | 33.73% | +2.42 | 0.851 | $109.04 |
| 2026-10-27 | 33.09% | +1.95 | 0.867 | $110.23 |
| 2026-10-26 | 34.54% | +2.29 | 0.823 | $110.40 |
| 2026-10-23 | 33.65% | +2.47 | 0.841 | $112.52 |
| 2026-10-22 | 33.64% | +3.14 | 0.836 | $113.13 |
| 2026-10-21 | 33.43% | +2.41 | 0.833 | $111.83 |
| 2026-10-20 | 33.35% | +1.77 | 0.840 | $111.67 |
| 2026-10-19 | 31.36% | +1.98 | 0.889 | $109.59 |
| 2026-10-16 | 27.57% | +2.11 | 1.022 | $110.59 |
| 2026-10-15 | 25.91% | +1.19 | 1.049 | $110.68 |
| 2026-10-14 | 25.21% | +1.65 | 1.102 | $108.99 |
| 2026-10-13 | 23.86% | +0.42 | 1.161 | $108.58 |
| 2026-10-09 | 24.84% | +0.66 | 1.102 | $108.05 |
| 2026-10-08 | 24.57% | +0.94 | 1.121 | $107.02 |
| 2026-10-07 | 23.71% | +1.15 | 1.178 | $104.75 |
| 2026-10-06 | 23.94% | +1.13 | 1.172 | $104.03 |
| 2026-10-05 | 24.06% | +0.24 | 1.187 | $103.61 |
| 2026-10-02 | 23.71% | +1.42 | 1.200 | $102.19 |
| 2026-10-01 | 24.01% | +1.62 | 1.203 | $101.33 |
| 2026-09-30 | 24.90% | +1.61 | 1.162 | $104.90 |
| 2026-09-29 | 24.58% | +0.11 | 1.177 | $105.41 |
| 2026-09-28 | 24.55% | +0.57 | 1.173 | $105.59 |
| 2026-09-25 | 23.82% | -0.01 | 1.200 | $106.15 |
| 2026-09-24 | 24.05% | +1.57 | 1.190 | $105.56 |
| 2026-09-23 | 24.12% | +0.74 | 1.204 | $103.46 |
| 2026-09-22 | 23.66% | +1.27 | 1.224 | $103.82 |
| 2026-09-21 | 23.94% | +1.59 | 1.216 | $104.23 |
| 2026-09-18 | 23.83% | +1.21 | 1.207 | $102.67 |
| 2026-09-17 | 23.76% | +1.15 | 1.200 | $105.35 |
| 2026-09-16 | 24.32% | +1.32 | 1.194 | $106.99 |
| 2026-09-15 | 24.06% | +0.78 | 1.181 | $106.42 |
| 2026-09-14 | 24.35% | +1.59 | 1.189 | $108.59 |
| 2026-09-11 | 23.14% | +0.91 | 1.219 | $106.55 |
| 2026-09-10 | 24.99% | +2.11 | 1.163 | $105.82 |
| 2026-09-09 | 25.08% | +0.45 | 1.164 | $104.18 |
| 2026-09-08 | 23.33% | +0.35 | 1.221 | $105.06 |
| 2026-09-04 | — | — | — | $105.31 |
| 2026-09-03 | 21.79% | +1.52 | 1.253 | $107.16 |
| 2026-09-02 | 22.85% | -0.42 | 1.219 | $107.98 |
| 2026-09-01 | 23.17% | +0.42 | 1.205 | $106.22 |
| 2026-08-31 | 22.18% | +0.57 | 1.226 | $107.55 |
| 2026-08-28 | 22.46% | +1.82 | 1.218 | $108.10 |
| 2026-08-26 | 22.51% | +0.82 | 1.240 | $109.63 |
| 2026-08-25 | 22.86% | +0.60 | 1.227 | $111.25 |
| 2026-08-24 | 24.00% | +0.94 | 1.175 | $110.61 |
| 2026-08-21 | 21.45% | +1.08 | 1.325 | $107.78 |
| 2026-08-20 | 23.18% | +0.64 | 1.208 | $107.32 |
| 2026-08-19 | 23.47% | -0.10 | 1.198 | $106.93 |
| 2026-08-18 | 22.97% | +0.95 | 1.208 | $103.95 |
| 2026-08-17 | 22.60% | -0.34 | 1.210 | $103.50 |
| 2025-10-22 | 37.40% | +2.63 | 0.787 | $113.08 |
| 2025-10-21 | 35.90% | +3.40 | 0.804 | $114.30 |
| 2025-10-20 | 35.43% | +4.35 | 0.816 | $111.96 |
| 2025-10-17 | 37.20% | +3.74 | 0.784 | $110.67 |
| 2025-10-16 | 38.81% | +5.11 | 0.770 | $109.88 |
| 2025-10-15 | 35.42% | +2.48 | 0.820 | $111.71 |
| 2025-10-14 | 36.61% | +2.99 | 0.800 | $111.17 |
| 2025-10-10 | 30.55% | +3.26 | 0.985 | $109.19 |
| 2025-10-09 | 27.50% | +2.30 | 1.056 | $110.99 |
| 2025-10-08 | 24.44% | +2.83 | 1.180 | $111.89 |
| 2025-10-07 | 25.41% | +2.40 | 1.131 | $112.53 |
| 2025-10-06 | 26.02% | +2.54 | 1.117 | $112.75 |
| 2025-10-03 | 24.92% | +2.04 | 1.141 | $112.47 |
| 2025-10-02 | 25.25% | +2.28 | 1.130 | $112.14 |
| 2025-10-01 | 25.08% | +2.29 | 1.138 | $112.95 |
| 2025-09-30 | 23.20% | +2.30 | 1.192 | $114.50 |
| 2025-09-29 | 23.50% | +2.03 | 1.181 | $114.78 |
| 2025-09-26 | 22.97% | +2.11 | 1.188 | $113.47 |
| 2025-09-25 | 23.84% | +2.60 | 1.184 | $112.99 |
| 2025-09-24 | 25.68% | -1.21 | 1.109 | $113.43 |
| 2025-09-23 | 24.77% | +2.27 | 1.152 | $112.25 |
| 2025-09-22 | 24.57% | +3.08 | 1.169 | $112.56 |
| 2025-09-19 | 23.88% | +2.55 | 1.147 | $113.76 |
| 2025-09-18 | 23.69% | +2.02 | 1.158 | $114.86 |
| 2025-09-17 | 23.21% | +1.89 | 1.159 | $116.10 |
| 2025-09-16 | 24.18% | +1.81 | 1.109 | $115.23 |
| 2025-09-15 | 24.00% | +1.54 | 1.130 | $115.62 |
| 2025-09-12 | 23.96% | +1.61 | 1.128 | $115.96 |
| 2025-09-11 | 23.38% | +1.36 | 1.146 | $117.08 |
| 2025-09-10 | 22.29% | +2.43 | 1.194 | $115.79 |
| 2025-09-09 | 22.41% | +0.24 | 1.184 | $117.37 |
| 2025-09-08 | 21.88% | +1.70 | 1.201 | $118.84 |
| 2025-09-05 | 22.21% | +1.60 | 1.201 | $117.91 |
| 2025-09-04 | 21.29% | +1.61 | 1.228 | $118.81 |
| 2025-09-03 | 21.54% | +2.36 | 1.225 | $117.38 |
| 2025-09-02 | 21.68% | +2.30 | 1.207 | $118.27 |
| 2025-08-29 | 20.07% | +1.89 | 1.265 | $118.38 |
| 2025-08-28 | 19.98% | +2.06 | 1.277 | $117.64 |
| 2025-08-27 | 21.11% | +1.64 | 1.208 | $118.09 |
| 2025-08-26 | 20.08% | +3.46 | 1.259 | $117.65 |
| 2025-08-25 | 21.33% | +0.91 | 1.219 | $117.71 |
| 2025-08-22 | 20.42% | +1.15 | 1.235 | $118.86 |
| 2025-08-21 | 22.67% | +1.99 | 1.145 | $116.21 |
| 2025-08-20 | 22.36% | +1.35 | 1.156 | $117.04 |
| 2025-08-19 | 21.63% | +1.79 | 1.168 | $116.27 |
| 2025-08-18 | 21.55% | +1.28 | 1.166 | $116.55 |
| 2025-08-15 | 21.17% | +1.67 | 1.166 | $115.39 |
| 2025-08-14 | 21.46% | +0.90 | 1.153 | $116.31 |
| 2025-08-13 | 21.07% | +1.17 | 1.184 | $116.64 |
| 2025-08-12 | 20.45% | +1.72 | 1.149 | $113.72 |
| 2025-08-11 | 21.79% | +1.18 | 1.104 | $112.55 |
| 2025-08-08 | 20.90% | +1.43 | 1.157 | $112.43 |
| 2025-08-07 | 21.48% | +1.78 | 1.143 | $112.88 |
| 2025-08-06 | 21.25% | +1.93 | 1.119 | $115.17 |
| 2025-08-05 | 33.21% | +1.83 | 0.852 | $118.32 |
| 2025-08-04 | 33.37% | +1.64 | 0.857 | $119.35 |
| 2025-08-01 | 34.23% | +3.35 | 0.845 | $116.59 |
| 2025-07-31 | 32.97% | +3.51 | 0.839 | $119.11 |
| 2025-07-30 | 32.70% | +2.28 | 0.843 | $119.54 |
| 2025-07-29 | 29.99% | +2.56 | 0.890 | $119.91 |
| 2025-07-28 | 31.40% | +2.79 | 0.839 | $120.37 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 347 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 347 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 28.35% | 44.98% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 26.21% | 45.86% | 37.46% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 26.38% | 44.92% | 37.72% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 26.61% | 45.73% | 38.08% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 26.83% | 47.78% | 37.68% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 26.89% | 46.51% | 38.14% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 26.87% | 47.08% | 39.24% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 26.85% | 46.82% | 38.90% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 26.91% | 47.56% | 40.12% |
| ATM | 27.08% | 47.17% | 39.68% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 27.26% | 47.63% | 39.89% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 27.42% | 47.59% | 39.50% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 27.60% | 47.64% | 41.35% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 27.91% | 47.89% | 39.13% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 28.43% | 48.20% | 39.41% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 28.56% | 48.86% | 40.84% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 28.53% | 49.58% | 40.28% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 28.93% | 50.87% | 41.13% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 30.72% | 53.68% | 43.42% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $119.30 | 27.08% | 28.43% | 26.83% | +1.60 | +0.55 | 15 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $119.40 | 47.17% | 48.20% | 47.78% | +0.42 | +0.82 | 35 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $119.48 | 39.68% | 39.41% | 37.68% | +1.73 | -1.14 | 30 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $119.52 | 35.88% | 36.46% | 34.58% | +1.88 | -0.36 | 28 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $118.78 | 32.56% | 33.07% | 33.92% | -0.85 | +0.93 | 12 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $119.25 | 31.93% | 33.37% | 30.53% | +2.84 | +0.02 | 13 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $118.76 | 32.30% | 32.68% | 30.61% | +2.07 | -0.66 | 14 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $119.29 | 28.15% | 29.04% | 28.06% | +0.98 | +0.40 | 13 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $120.30 | 29.13% | 30.31% | 28.29% | +2.01 | +0.17 | 16 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $120.43 | 28.86% | 29.40% | 27.67% | +1.73 | -0.32 | 15 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $121.67 | 29.09% | 30.22% | 28.16% | +2.06 | +0.11 | 20 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $122.47 | 29.26% | 30.03% | 28.28% | +1.75 | -0.10 | 19 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $119.30 | 27.08% | $119.34 | 15 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $119.40 | 47.17% | $119.76 | 35 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $119.48 | 39.68% | $119.91 | 30 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $119.52 | 35.88% | $120.03 | 28 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $118.78 | 32.56% | $119.31 | 12 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $119.25 | 31.93% | $119.88 | 13 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $118.76 | 32.30% | $119.51 | 14 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $119.29 | 28.15% | $120.15 | 13 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $120.30 | 29.13% | $122.12 | 16 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $120.43 | 28.86% | $122.61 | 15 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $121.67 | 29.09% | $124.80 | 20 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $122.47 | 29.26% | $127.01 | 19 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 32.96%
- 60 天
- 29.03%
- 90 天
- 28.69%
- 180 天
- 28.96%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 347 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 4 次
- 80% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 7.1%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 4.7%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2026-11-04 | 未说明时间 | 2.2% | -1.5% | 0.66× |
| 2026-08-05 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-02 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-13 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-06 | 开盘前 | 7.7% | -2.7% | 0.35× |
| 2025-05-07 | 开盘前 | 8.5% | +10.8% | 1.26× |
| 2025-02-05 | 开盘前 | 8.6% | -2.4% | 0.28× |
| 2024-11-14 | 开盘前 | 8.4% | +6.2% | 0.74× |
| 2024-08-07 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-07 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-08 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。