股票 · 期权分析
FSLR 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $180.98
- 30D ATM IV
- 51.49%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 25
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +0.63
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.999
▼ -0.20 pts 较前一交易日
概览
FSLR 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 51.5%,相当于未来一个月约 ±14.8% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 251 个交易日中 25% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 0.63 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-28(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±8.6% 的波动,FSLR 实际平均波动 27.2%,6 次中有 2 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 51.49%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +0.63
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.78
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.999
对应 30 天内约 ±14.8% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.2%。
高于过去一年中 25% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 0.63 个点。
高于过去一年中 41% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.78 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 65% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 251 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 25%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 15%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 33%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 18%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $180.98
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $181.16
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 50.11%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 51.47%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 53.42%
- 使用的到期日数
- 11
- 总未平仓量
- 330,748
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.34
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 339 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 51.49% | +0.63 | 0.999 | $180.98 |
| 2026-11-09 | 51.69% | +1.14 | 0.990 | $191.61 |
| 2026-11-06 | 52.99% | +0.90 | 0.956 | $201.14 |
| 2026-11-05 | 54.58% | +2.22 | 0.938 | $195.76 |
| 2026-11-04 | 50.55% | -0.03 | 0.982 | $194.51 |
| 2026-11-03 | 56.44% | +0.82 | 0.939 | $185.90 |
| 2026-11-02 | 55.55% | +1.41 | 0.923 | $182.05 |
| 2026-10-30 | 52.38% | +0.98 | 0.941 | $174.40 |
| 2026-10-29 | 60.75% | -0.36 | 0.842 | $176.89 |
| 2026-10-28 | 60.47% | -0.44 | 0.858 | $176.30 |
| 2026-10-27 | 60.24% | +0.20 | 0.875 | $175.85 |
| 2026-10-26 | 59.78% | +0.42 | 0.866 | $168.15 |
| 2026-10-23 | 60.46% | -0.28 | 0.872 | $171.99 |
| 2026-10-22 | 61.92% | -1.02 | 0.849 | $171.25 |
| 2026-10-21 | 60.53% | -0.23 | 0.852 | $174.82 |
| 2026-10-20 | 60.59% | +0.02 | 0.849 | $174.43 |
| 2026-10-19 | 60.38% | +0.94 | 0.856 | $171.80 |
| 2026-10-16 | 61.26% | +0.23 | 0.866 | $172.64 |
| 2026-10-15 | 61.30% | -0.73 | 0.854 | $178.81 |
| 2026-10-14 | 60.87% | +1.04 | 0.853 | $179.08 |
| 2026-10-13 | 60.63% | -0.10 | 0.880 | $186.60 |
| 2026-10-09 | 60.81% | -2.00 | 0.866 | $177.82 |
| 2026-10-08 | 60.39% | +1.00 | 0.865 | $178.85 |
| 2026-10-07 | 60.10% | -1.09 | 0.889 | $180.13 |
| 2026-10-06 | 59.57% | -1.09 | 0.897 | $179.80 |
| 2026-10-05 | 58.65% | +0.88 | 0.895 | $176.16 |
| 2026-10-02 | 55.07% | +0.14 | 0.976 | $174.61 |
| 2026-10-01 | 57.10% | -0.96 | 0.986 | $172.11 |
| 2026-09-30 | 57.39% | -0.29 | 0.952 | $175.16 |
| 2026-09-29 | 57.03% | +0.37 | 0.975 | $176.93 |
| 2026-09-28 | 55.81% | +0.41 | 0.998 | $172.97 |
| 2026-09-25 | 51.74% | -0.86 | 1.079 | $177.71 |
| 2026-09-24 | 53.39% | -0.60 | 1.044 | $172.16 |
| 2026-09-23 | 49.07% | -0.76 | 1.073 | $191.97 |
| 2026-09-22 | 49.87% | -1.53 | 1.082 | $200.78 |
| 2026-09-21 | 49.74% | -1.53 | 1.092 | $199.84 |
| 2026-09-18 | 47.68% | -0.92 | 1.142 | $195.96 |
| 2026-09-17 | 48.96% | -0.60 | 1.138 | $201.16 |
| 2026-09-16 | 48.69% | -0.19 | 1.111 | $191.07 |
| 2026-09-15 | 48.75% | +1.41 | 1.110 | $202.34 |
| 2026-09-14 | 48.66% | +0.25 | 1.127 | $207.04 |
| 2026-09-11 | 48.61% | +0.82 | 1.139 | $209.03 |
| 2026-09-10 | 49.68% | -1.48 | 1.112 | $207.17 |
| 2026-09-09 | 50.92% | -4.17 | 1.095 | $203.10 |
| 2026-09-08 | 50.12% | -1.81 | 1.113 | $213.25 |
| 2026-09-04 | 47.11% | -1.10 | 1.148 | $204.45 |
| 2026-09-03 | 47.29% | -0.09 | 1.125 | $207.42 |
| 2026-09-02 | 47.18% | +0.41 | 1.147 | $202.60 |
| 2026-09-01 | 47.90% | -2.37 | 1.129 | $199.65 |
| 2026-08-31 | 47.27% | -0.43 | 1.175 | $201.90 |
| 2026-08-28 | 47.13% | +2.77 | 1.154 | $204.46 |
| 2026-08-27 | 47.48% | -1.77 | 1.194 | $210.10 |
| 2026-08-26 | 49.36% | -0.71 | 1.147 | $205.93 |
| 2026-08-25 | 50.61% | -2.98 | 1.114 | $206.82 |
| 2026-08-24 | 49.31% | -1.70 | 1.113 | $208.31 |
| 2026-08-21 | 48.20% | -1.18 | 1.180 | $214.28 |
| 2025-10-22 | 65.32% | +1.87 | 0.828 | $223.36 |
| 2025-10-21 | — | — | — | $226.85 |
| 2025-10-20 | 62.69% | +2.43 | 0.868 | $229.00 |
| 2025-10-17 | 61.74% | +1.66 | 0.901 | $231.85 |
| 2025-10-16 | 67.28% | +1.34 | 0.862 | $237.79 |
| 2025-10-15 | 63.76% | +0.04 | 0.863 | $244.40 |
| 2025-10-14 | 62.67% | +0.04 | 0.871 | $224.43 |
| 2025-10-10 | 63.54% | +1.48 | 0.873 | $225.91 |
| 2025-10-09 | 61.90% | -0.25 | 0.872 | $234.30 |
| 2025-10-08 | 61.00% | +3.37 | 0.874 | $231.37 |
| 2025-10-07 | 61.45% | +2.94 | 0.876 | $227.89 |
| 2025-10-06 | 60.96% | +1.76 | 0.890 | $229.57 |
| 2025-10-03 | 57.00% | +4.78 | 0.953 | $230.13 |
| 2025-10-02 | 59.99% | +1.79 | 0.897 | $232.13 |
| 2025-10-01 | 57.97% | +5.26 | 0.938 | $224.82 |
| 2025-09-30 | 58.08% | +1.71 | 0.935 | $220.53 |
| 2025-09-29 | 58.65% | +1.50 | 0.938 | $223.53 |
| 2025-09-26 | 52.85% | +1.75 | 1.040 | $220.02 |
| 2025-09-25 | 55.35% | +1.96 | 1.000 | $223.05 |
| 2025-09-24 | 55.84% | +3.01 | 1.012 | $219.17 |
| 2025-09-23 | 54.08% | +1.30 | 1.016 | $215.73 |
| 2025-09-22 | 52.02% | +1.53 | 1.042 | $219.20 |
| 2025-09-19 | 49.93% | +2.21 | 1.084 | $212.49 |
| 2025-09-18 | 51.89% | +2.58 | 1.066 | $209.63 |
| 2025-09-17 | 49.03% | +2.37 | 1.104 | $210.71 |
| 2025-09-16 | 50.14% | +2.81 | 1.062 | $205.25 |
| 2025-09-15 | 49.08% | +2.93 | 1.079 | $207.00 |
| 2025-09-12 | 47.29% | +2.24 | 1.069 | $201.70 |
| 2025-09-11 | 47.68% | +1.83 | 1.076 | $203.31 |
| 2025-09-10 | 49.35% | +4.43 | 1.055 | $203.79 |
| 2025-09-09 | 50.77% | +2.78 | 1.032 | $203.06 |
| 2025-09-08 | 50.78% | +0.85 | 1.020 | $203.21 |
| 2025-09-05 | 49.04% | +1.13 | 1.069 | $205.14 |
| 2025-09-04 | 48.62% | +0.78 | 1.046 | $201.87 |
| 2025-09-03 | 45.08% | +9.15 | 1.146 | $201.49 |
| 2025-09-02 | 48.26% | +3.64 | 1.082 | $195.78 |
| 2025-08-29 | 49.04% | +2.36 | 1.046 | $195.19 |
| 2025-08-28 | 48.27% | +2.90 | 1.055 | $197.02 |
| 2025-08-27 | 48.95% | +2.47 | 1.048 | $191.23 |
| 2025-08-26 | 49.53% | +1.73 | 1.054 | $196.72 |
| 2025-08-25 | 48.64% | +1.98 | 1.031 | $199.44 |
| 2025-08-22 | 48.14% | +1.01 | 1.064 | $202.28 |
| 2025-08-21 | 50.50% | +1.97 | 1.013 | $192.00 |
| 2025-08-20 | 48.44% | -0.70 | 1.016 | $206.44 |
| 2025-08-19 | 48.97% | -0.26 | 1.019 | $210.96 |
| 2025-08-18 | 50.68% | -1.23 | 0.980 | $219.33 |
| 2025-08-15 | 51.68% | +2.36 | 0.977 | $199.95 |
| 2025-08-14 | 57.38% | +3.39 | 0.917 | $180.05 |
| 2025-08-13 | 59.35% | +1.02 | 0.892 | $184.84 |
| 2025-08-12 | 57.26% | +1.24 | 0.927 | $184.73 |
| 2025-08-11 | 55.98% | +0.69 | 0.926 | $182.13 |
| 2025-08-08 | 53.82% | +1.77 | 0.949 | $184.65 |
| 2025-08-07 | 52.81% | +2.39 | 0.972 | $185.60 |
| 2025-08-06 | 49.17% | +4.31 | 1.001 | $185.01 |
| 2025-08-05 | 49.15% | +1.41 | 0.989 | $186.84 |
| 2025-08-04 | 48.92% | +1.30 | 0.991 | $183.42 |
| 2025-08-01 | 49.26% | +2.37 | 0.975 | $183.97 |
| 2025-07-31 | 58.27% | +2.90 | 0.912 | $174.73 |
| 2025-07-30 | 58.09% | +0.32 | 0.883 | $179.13 |
| 2025-07-29 | 59.61% | -0.97 | 0.873 | $181.82 |
| 2025-07-28 | 56.48% | +1.23 | 0.938 | $183.58 |
| 2025-07-25 | 56.74% | +1.90 | 0.906 | $185.32 |
| 2025-07-24 | 55.52% | -0.08 | 0.936 | $180.72 |
| 2025-07-23 | 58.67% | +0.34 | 0.906 | $179.77 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 339 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 339 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 76.15% | 60.12% | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 69.78% | 59.00% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 69.18% | 57.66% | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 68.88% | 56.50% | 52.78% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 67.16% | 55.98% | 52.71% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 66.34% | 55.86% | 53.04% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 67.12% | 56.88% | 53.02% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 66.52% | 57.15% | 53.48% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 65.12% | 57.11% | 54.19% |
| ATM | 66.58% | 57.89% | 54.14% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 67.99% | 57.23% | 52.16% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 67.81% | 58.15% | 52.86% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 67.83% | 57.66% | 52.79% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 68.78% | 58.15% | 53.31% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 69.10% | 59.69% | 53.59% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 69.34% | 59.44% | 53.73% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 70.11% | 60.33% | 54.97% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 74.36% | 59.77% | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 76.90% | — | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $180.90 | 66.58% | 69.10% | 67.16% | +1.93 | +1.55 | 16 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $181.10 | 57.89% | 59.69% | 55.98% | +3.71 | -0.06 | 20 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $180.85 | 54.14% | 53.59% | 52.71% | +0.88 | -0.99 | 15 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $181.33 | 52.35% | 53.19% | 51.81% | +1.38 | +0.15 | 14 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $181.13 | 51.38% | 52.51% | 51.97% | +0.54 | +0.86 | 12 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $181.56 | 51.11% | 52.53% | 51.39% | +1.14 | +0.85 | 17 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $181.28 | 51.07% | 51.83% | 51.55% | +0.28 | +0.62 | 13 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $182.19 | 49.86% | 51.09% | 49.62% | +1.48 | +0.49 | 19 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $182.94 | 52.76% | 52.88% | 52.18% | +0.70 | -0.23 | 28 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $184.77 | 53.71% | 52.51% | 51.76% | +0.75 | -1.58 | 43 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $187.23 | 52.31% | 52.32% | 50.98% | +1.34 | -0.66 | 35 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
11 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $180.90 | 66.58% | $181.23 | 16 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $181.10 | 57.89% | $181.93 | 20 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $180.85 | 54.14% | $182.09 | 15 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $181.33 | 52.35% | $182.97 | 14 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $181.13 | 51.38% | $183.17 | 12 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $181.56 | 51.11% | $184.04 | 17 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $181.28 | 51.07% | $184.15 | 13 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $182.19 | 49.86% | $186.33 | 19 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $182.94 | 52.76% | $192.17 | 28 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $184.77 | 53.71% | $201.47 | 43 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $187.23 | 52.31% | $210.38 | 35 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 51.49%
- 60 天
- 50.11%
- 90 天
- 51.47%
- 180 天
- 53.42%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 339 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 2 次
- 33% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 8.6%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 27.2%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 收盘后 | 10.3% | -1.4% | 0.14× |
| 2026-07-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-24 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-31 | 收盘后 | 7.5% | +22.6% | 3.02× |
| 2025-04-29 | 收盘后 | 10.7% | +56.1% | 5.25× |
| 2025-02-25 | 收盘后 | 11.2% | +45.3% | 4.06× |
| 2025-02-20 | 收盘后 | 2.7% | +30.6% | 11.27× |
| 2024-10-29 | 收盘后 | 9.2% | +7.3% | 0.79× |
| 2024-07-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-31 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。