股票 · 期权分析
INTC 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $58.13
- 30D ATM IV
- 66.37%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 75
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +4.21
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.974
▲ +0.45 pts 较前一交易日
概览
INTC 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 66.4%,相当于未来一个月约 ±19.0% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 75% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 4.21 个波动率点,过去一年里只有 8% 的交易日差距比这更大。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 3%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-28(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±10.2% 的波动,INTC 实际平均波动 210.6%,6 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 66.37%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +4.21
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.45
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.974
对应 30 天内约 ±19.0% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.2%。
高于过去一年中 75% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 4.21 个点。
高于过去一年中 92% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.45 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 3%。
高于过去一年中 52% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 75%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 53%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 78%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 53%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $58.13
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $58.16
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 64.52%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 64.65%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 62.46%
- 使用的到期日数
- 13
- 总未平仓量
- 5,566,219
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.97
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 338 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 66.37% | +4.21 | 0.974 | $58.13 |
| 2026-11-09 | 65.93% | +6.05 | 0.970 | $59.37 |
| 2026-11-06 | 71.72% | +8.59 | 0.927 | $56.28 |
| 2026-11-05 | 74.70% | +10.50 | 0.910 | $52.25 |
| 2026-11-04 | 64.45% | +2.22 | 0.967 | $58.27 |
| 2026-11-03 | 62.43% | +4.35 | 0.963 | $60.55 |
| 2026-11-02 | 65.07% | +6.11 | 0.939 | $59.97 |
| 2026-10-30 | 60.38% | +2.52 | 0.940 | $65.76 |
| 2026-10-29 | 62.33% | -2.19 | 0.919 | $92.07 |
| 2026-10-28 | 63.58% | -0.95 | 0.932 | $95.53 |
| 2026-10-27 | 65.32% | -0.52 | 0.912 | $93.74 |
| 2026-10-26 | 65.67% | -1.45 | 0.904 | $90.47 |
| 2026-10-23 | 66.19% | +0.35 | 0.901 | $86.96 |
| 2026-10-22 | 68.89% | +1.98 | 0.878 | $85.49 |
| 2026-10-21 | 66.63% | -2.30 | 0.891 | $92.96 |
| 2026-10-20 | 67.50% | -0.24 | 0.878 | $91.69 |
| 2026-10-19 | 66.03% | -0.68 | 0.883 | $92.03 |
| 2026-10-16 | 67.67% | +0.92 | 0.867 | $89.85 |
| 2026-10-15 | 66.39% | -2.47 | 0.889 | $95.37 |
| 2026-10-14 | 66.59% | -2.34 | 0.881 | $98.12 |
| 2026-10-13 | 65.09% | -4.63 | 0.892 | $102.81 |
| 2026-10-09 | 64.63% | -4.47 | 0.911 | $104.70 |
| 2026-10-08 | 67.28% | -3.06 | 0.895 | $107.08 |
| 2026-10-07 | 67.89% | -5.25 | 0.895 | $113.12 |
| 2026-10-06 | 66.93% | -5.05 | 0.900 | $112.50 |
| 2026-10-05 | 67.82% | -5.79 | 0.897 | $116.19 |
| 2026-10-02 | 69.72% | -4.16 | 0.917 | $119.33 |
| 2026-10-01 | 72.85% | -5.03 | 0.908 | $120.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | 75.71% | -4.82 | 0.896 | $120.23 |
| 2026-09-29 | 72.68% | -5.48 | 0.909 | $115.93 |
| 2026-09-28 | 73.60% | -5.05 | 0.904 | $116.03 |
| 2026-09-25 | 73.80% | -6.37 | 0.946 | $123.00 |
| 2026-09-24 | 76.23% | -5.17 | 0.932 | $127.39 |
| 2026-09-23 | 73.64% | -4.55 | 0.944 | $122.60 |
| 2026-09-22 | 74.29% | -5.71 | 0.953 | $123.86 |
| 2026-09-21 | 75.37% | -6.16 | 0.954 | $121.78 |
| 2026-09-18 | 64.62% | -3.33 | 1.028 | $108.60 |
| 2026-09-17 | 64.78% | -3.29 | 1.041 | $108.80 |
| 2026-09-16 | 62.08% | -1.91 | 1.060 | $101.05 |
| 2026-09-15 | 59.79% | -1.77 | 1.071 | $97.14 |
| 2026-09-14 | 61.04% | -2.30 | 1.066 | $97.19 |
| 2026-09-11 | 59.18% | -2.35 | 1.113 | $102.94 |
| 2026-09-10 | 62.61% | -2.48 | 1.078 | $100.32 |
| 2026-09-09 | 65.01% | -3.82 | 1.070 | $106.24 |
| 2026-09-08 | 66.86% | -6.04 | 1.057 | $104.47 |
| 2026-09-04 | 60.77% | -5.60 | 1.090 | $95.80 |
| 2026-09-03 | 57.13% | -3.58 | 1.100 | $91.67 |
| 2026-09-02 | 54.83% | -1.85 | 1.121 | $90.05 |
| 2026-09-01 | 55.36% | -1.51 | 1.122 | $88.97 |
| 2026-08-31 | 55.32% | -2.40 | 1.124 | $89.51 |
| 2026-08-28 | 54.55% | -1.99 | 1.156 | $89.47 |
| 2026-08-27 | 58.12% | -3.57 | 1.123 | $92.09 |
| 2026-08-26 | 59.52% | -3.72 | 1.102 | $88.24 |
| 2026-08-25 | 60.12% | -3.62 | 1.107 | $87.48 |
| 2026-08-24 | 60.27% | -3.00 | 1.103 | $87.26 |
| 2025-10-22 | 72.73% | -5.04 | 0.833 | $36.92 |
| 2025-10-21 | 75.16% | -6.74 | 0.834 | $38.12 |
| 2025-10-20 | 75.52% | -8.82 | 0.848 | $38.10 |
| 2025-10-17 | 76.28% | -8.36 | 0.852 | $37.01 |
| 2025-10-16 | 77.32% | -6.65 | 0.835 | $36.84 |
| 2025-10-15 | 77.73% | -9.14 | 0.822 | $37.15 |
| 2025-10-14 | 74.09% | -8.32 | 0.830 | $35.63 |
| 2025-10-10 | 73.21% | -4.36 | 0.859 | $36.37 |
| 2025-10-09 | 70.27% | -3.19 | 0.868 | $37.80 |
| 2025-10-08 | 75.90% | -9.44 | 0.829 | $37.43 |
| 2025-10-07 | 74.94% | -10.99 | 0.834 | $37.17 |
| 2025-10-06 | 74.57% | -11.07 | 0.826 | $36.59 |
| 2025-10-03 | 67.25% | -5.86 | 0.901 | $36.83 |
| 2025-10-02 | 72.75% | -12.61 | 0.862 | $37.30 |
| 2025-10-01 | 74.10% | -17.99 | 0.855 | $35.94 |
| 2025-09-30 | 68.19% | -16.37 | 0.868 | $33.55 |
| 2025-09-29 | 72.94% | -19.36 | 0.873 | $34.48 |
| 2025-09-26 | 75.41% | -15.42 | 0.886 | $35.50 |
| 2025-09-25 | 74.73% | -16.96 | 0.860 | $33.99 |
| 2025-09-24 | 64.07% | -12.66 | 0.861 | $31.22 |
| 2025-09-23 | 57.21% | -15.08 | 0.919 | $29.34 |
| 2025-09-22 | 55.63% | -15.53 | 0.933 | $28.76 |
| 2025-09-19 | 54.88% | -11.90 | 0.950 | $29.58 |
| 2025-09-18 | 59.01% | -7.94 | 0.916 | $30.57 |
| 2025-09-17 | 43.48% | -4.51 | 1.085 | $24.90 |
| 2025-09-16 | 45.16% | -6.09 | 1.050 | $25.27 |
| 2025-09-15 | 44.85% | -8.62 | 1.059 | $24.77 |
| 2025-09-12 | 41.20% | -7.83 | 1.115 | $24.08 |
| 2025-09-11 | 43.38% | -7.02 | 1.068 | $24.61 |
| 2025-09-10 | 45.85% | -6.55 | 1.029 | $24.77 |
| 2025-09-09 | 41.86% | -4.56 | 1.102 | $24.44 |
| 2025-09-08 | 41.78% | -3.56 | 1.118 | $24.48 |
| 2025-09-05 | 42.19% | -4.77 | 1.118 | $24.49 |
| 2025-09-04 | 42.49% | -3.63 | 1.118 | $24.61 |
| 2025-09-03 | 41.82% | -1.30 | 1.142 | $24.00 |
| 2025-09-02 | 42.81% | -0.74 | 1.110 | $24.21 |
| 2025-08-29 | 41.76% | -4.04 | 1.154 | $24.35 |
| 2025-08-28 | 45.04% | -5.25 | 1.087 | $24.93 |
| 2025-08-27 | 49.14% | -5.87 | 1.028 | $24.85 |
| 2025-08-26 | 48.46% | -5.91 | 1.054 | $24.35 |
| 2025-08-25 | 49.97% | -6.44 | 1.061 | $24.55 |
| 2025-08-22 | 54.42% | -6.79 | 1.010 | $24.80 |
| 2025-08-21 | 52.18% | -5.78 | 1.004 | $23.50 |
| 2025-08-20 | 52.83% | -4.87 | 0.953 | $23.54 |
| 2025-08-19 | 56.20% | -10.48 | 0.954 | $25.31 |
| 2025-08-18 | 52.23% | -6.40 | 0.989 | $23.66 |
| 2025-08-15 | 55.57% | -10.54 | 0.946 | $24.56 |
| 2025-08-14 | 58.66% | -7.58 | 0.919 | $23.86 |
| 2025-08-13 | 45.64% | -4.20 | 1.040 | $22.22 |
| 2025-08-12 | 45.50% | -4.20 | 1.045 | $21.81 |
| 2025-08-11 | 47.63% | -6.43 | 1.019 | $20.65 |
| 2025-08-08 | 41.86% | -2.14 | 1.061 | $19.95 |
| 2025-08-07 | 43.93% | -3.39 | 1.032 | $19.77 |
| 2025-08-06 | 41.48% | -5.62 | 1.070 | $20.41 |
| 2025-08-05 | 43.40% | -4.10 | 1.033 | $20.19 |
| 2025-08-04 | 38.31% | -0.39 | 1.158 | $19.50 |
| 2025-08-01 | 41.79% | -2.44 | 1.056 | $19.31 |
| 2025-07-31 | 38.56% | -1.68 | 1.098 | $19.80 |
| 2025-07-30 | 38.75% | -4.78 | 1.082 | $20.34 |
| 2025-07-29 | 39.45% | -2.93 | 1.059 | $20.41 |
| 2025-07-28 | 39.13% | -4.11 | 1.070 | $20.68 |
| 2025-07-25 | 38.90% | -3.10 | 1.069 | $20.70 |
| 2025-07-24 | 55.73% | -5.92 | 0.867 | $22.63 |
| 2025-07-23 | 54.04% | -1.62 | 0.873 | $23.49 |
| 2025-07-22 | 52.74% | -2.63 | 0.890 | $23.24 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 338 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 86.26% | 78.34% | 71.18% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 83.74% | 76.50% | 68.92% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 83.02% | 75.38% | 68.61% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 82.55% | 74.51% | 67.70% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 82.93% | 74.49% | 67.69% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 83.60% | 74.53% | 67.84% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 84.10% | 74.62% | 68.02% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 84.25% | 74.95% | 68.30% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 84.46% | 75.16% | 69.05% |
| ATM | 84.76% | 75.57% | 69.13% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 85.15% | 76.16% | 68.82% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 85.63% | 76.36% | 69.02% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 86.22% | 76.74% | 69.47% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 86.75% | 77.34% | 70.09% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 87.18% | 78.33% | 70.74% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 87.79% | 79.27% | 71.75% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 88.89% | 80.66% | 73.58% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 89.91% | 82.82% | 75.96% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 94.15% | 89.15% | 82.11% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $57.93 | 84.76% | 87.18% | 82.93% | +4.26 | +0.30 | 29 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $57.97 | 75.57% | 78.33% | 74.49% | +3.84 | +0.84 | 60 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $57.95 | 69.13% | 70.74% | 67.69% | +3.04 | +0.09 | 48 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $58.05 | 66.77% | 70.05% | 65.94% | +4.12 | +1.23 | 47 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $58.18 | 66.32% | 69.90% | 65.69% | +4.22 | +1.47 | 43 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $58.13 | 66.64% | 69.62% | 65.24% | +4.38 | +0.79 | 48 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $57.97 | 66.44% | 67.86% | 63.69% | +4.17 | -0.66 | 33 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $58.38 | 64.03% | 66.44% | 62.84% | +3.60 | +0.61 | 48 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $58.66 | 64.84% | 67.73% | 63.98% | +3.75 | +1.02 | 32 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $58.88 | 62.99% | 66.37% | 62.30% | +4.07 | +1.34 | 46 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $59.06 | 62.35% | 65.32% | 61.57% | +3.75 | +1.09 | 32 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $59.51 | 62.58% | 64.96% | 62.09% | +2.87 | +0.95 | 43 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $60.23 | 61.98% | 63.81% | 61.14% | +2.66 | +0.49 | 43 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
13 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $57.93 | 84.76% | $58.11 | 29 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $57.97 | 75.57% | $58.43 | 60 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $57.95 | 69.13% | $58.60 | 48 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $58.05 | 66.77% | $58.91 | 47 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $58.18 | 66.32% | $59.27 | 43 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $58.13 | 66.64% | $59.49 | 48 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $57.97 | 66.44% | $59.54 | 33 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $58.38 | 64.03% | $60.59 | 48 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $58.66 | 64.84% | $62.17 | 32 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $58.88 | 62.99% | $63.16 | 46 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $59.06 | 62.35% | $64.21 | 32 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $59.51 | 62.58% | $66.93 | 43 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $60.23 | 61.98% | $70.95 | 43 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 66.37%
- 60 天
- 64.52%
- 90 天
- 64.65%
- 180 天
- 62.46%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 1 次
- 17% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 10.2%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 210.6%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 收盘后 | 10.0% | -28.6% | 2.86× |
| 2026-10-22 | 未说明时间 | 4.2% | +1.7% | 0.41× |
| 2026-07-23 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-23 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-22 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-23 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-24 | 收盘后 | 9.8% | +285.6% | 29.05× |
| 2025-04-24 | 收盘后 | 9.8% | +306.0% | 31.13× |
| 2025-01-30 | 收盘后 | 13.3% | +336.1% | 25.32× |
| 2024-10-31 | 收盘后 | 14.0% | +305.5% | 21.89× |
| 2024-08-01 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-26 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。