股票 · 期权分析
MMM 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $189.37
- 30D ATM IV
- 25.26%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 28
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +1.00
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.048
▼ -0.72 pts 较前一交易日
概览
MMM 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 25.3%,相当于未来一个月约 ±7.2% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 245 个交易日中 28% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 1.00 个波动率点,比过去一年中 95% 的交易日都更接近。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-19(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±7.3% 的波动,MMM 实际平均波动 4.6%,6 次中有 5 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 25.26%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +1.00
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.30
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.048
对应 30 天内约 ±7.2% 的波动，平常一天约 ±1.6%。
高于过去一年中 28% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 1.00 个点。
高于过去一年中 5% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.30 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 5%。
高于过去一年中 61% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 245 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 28%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 15%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 34%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 15%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $189.37
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $189.52
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 25.36%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 26.47%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 27.92%
- 使用的到期日数
- 10
- 总未平仓量
- 83,250
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.23
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 338 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 25.26% | +1.00 | 1.048 | $189.37 |
| 2026-11-09 | 25.97% | +1.01 | 1.040 | $188.63 |
| 2026-11-06 | 27.43% | +1.35 | 0.999 | $185.15 |
| 2026-11-05 | 28.68% | +2.49 | 0.967 | $187.77 |
| 2026-11-04 | 25.93% | +0.86 | 1.026 | $193.95 |
| 2026-11-03 | 26.48% | +3.22 | 1.000 | $177.05 |
| 2026-11-02 | 26.03% | +2.34 | 1.023 | $178.36 |
| 2026-10-30 | 26.47% | +3.33 | 0.984 | $174.34 |
| 2026-10-29 | 24.57% | +1.90 | 1.028 | $177.36 |
| 2026-10-28 | 25.44% | +1.26 | 0.965 | $172.80 |
| 2026-10-27 | 25.61% | +2.85 | 0.974 | $171.58 |
| 2026-10-26 | 26.06% | +2.33 | 0.988 | $172.79 |
| 2026-10-23 | 26.69% | +2.39 | 0.962 | $173.46 |
| 2026-10-22 | 26.75% | +2.38 | 0.944 | $175.56 |
| 2026-10-21 | 26.30% | +1.57 | 0.942 | $174.74 |
| 2026-10-20 | 26.80% | +1.85 | 0.929 | $171.37 |
| 2026-10-19 | 34.19% | +2.85 | 0.817 | $162.01 |
| 2026-10-16 | 34.80% | +2.98 | 0.813 | $164.75 |
| 2026-10-15 | 34.58% | +1.44 | 0.801 | $165.33 |
| 2026-10-14 | 39.47% | +1.60 | 0.709 | $164.46 |
| 2026-10-13 | 32.18% | +2.48 | 0.844 | $162.77 |
| 2026-10-09 | 32.19% | +1.57 | 0.851 | $159.96 |
| 2026-10-08 | 33.33% | +1.40 | 0.830 | $163.58 |
| 2026-10-07 | 32.76% | +1.53 | 0.828 | $162.12 |
| 2026-10-06 | 32.00% | +1.82 | 0.862 | $163.64 |
| 2026-10-05 | 32.62% | +1.97 | 0.855 | $163.19 |
| 2026-10-02 | 32.00% | +1.56 | 0.863 | $161.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | 32.47% | +1.64 | 0.859 | $163.02 |
| 2026-09-30 | 32.10% | +1.35 | 0.863 | $164.15 |
| 2026-09-29 | 32.07% | +2.89 | 0.854 | $168.49 |
| 2026-09-28 | 30.55% | +2.17 | 0.895 | $169.48 |
| 2026-09-25 | 27.82% | +2.25 | 0.994 | $169.55 |
| 2026-09-24 | 27.89% | +0.94 | 0.971 | $167.52 |
| 2026-09-23 | 28.13% | +2.80 | 0.959 | $170.30 |
| 2026-09-22 | 28.28% | +2.12 | 0.997 | $169.30 |
| 2026-09-21 | 27.35% | +2.15 | 0.995 | $164.97 |
| 2026-09-18 | 25.12% | +1.75 | 1.095 | $165.89 |
| 2026-09-17 | 25.17% | +2.44 | 1.087 | $164.71 |
| 2026-09-16 | 25.11% | +1.16 | 1.099 | $162.65 |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — | — | $164.67 |
| 2026-09-14 | — | — | — | $162.02 |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — | — | $164.97 |
| 2026-09-10 | 24.02% | +2.27 | 1.144 | $162.86 |
| 2026-09-09 | 24.44% | +1.37 | 1.129 | $164.40 |
| 2026-09-08 | 24.55% | +1.70 | 1.125 | $167.52 |
| 2026-09-04 | 23.38% | +1.84 | 1.163 | $168.56 |
| 2026-09-03 | — | — | — | $168.31 |
| 2026-09-02 | 23.40% | +1.82 | 1.142 | $168.75 |
| 2026-09-01 | — | — | — | $170.24 |
| 2026-08-31 | 22.73% | +1.47 | 1.143 | $171.83 |
| 2026-08-28 | 22.31% | +1.83 | 1.178 | $174.34 |
| 2026-08-27 | 22.29% | +1.39 | 1.183 | $178.83 |
| 2026-08-26 | 22.60% | +2.60 | 1.161 | $180.00 |
| 2026-08-25 | 23.10% | +1.53 | 1.148 | $179.37 |
| 2026-08-24 | 23.04% | +2.37 | 1.159 | $179.01 |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.25% | +2.50 | 0.979 | $167.23 |
| 2025-10-21 | 26.94% | +1.70 | 0.988 | $166.64 |
| 2025-10-20 | 35.66% | +2.48 | 0.842 | $154.78 |
| 2025-10-17 | 38.14% | +3.73 | 0.827 | $152.64 |
| 2025-10-16 | 40.91% | +3.62 | 0.797 | $151.41 |
| 2025-10-15 | 38.73% | +4.42 | 0.819 | $153.47 |
| 2025-10-14 | 37.64% | +2.29 | 0.836 | $152.53 |
| 2025-10-10 | 39.49% | +2.21 | 0.819 | $148.75 |
| 2025-10-09 | 36.33% | +2.23 | 0.850 | $152.88 |
| 2025-10-08 | 36.04% | +3.23 | 0.846 | $156.00 |
| 2025-10-07 | 35.73% | +2.38 | 0.852 | $155.33 |
| 2025-10-06 | 34.98% | +0.15 | 0.856 | $155.93 |
| 2025-10-03 | 34.82% | +2.09 | 0.857 | $158.66 |
| 2025-10-02 | 34.43% | +2.75 | 0.869 | $158.80 |
| 2025-10-01 | 34.21% | +2.35 | 0.870 | $156.00 |
| 2025-09-30 | 31.82% | +4.26 | 0.917 | $155.18 |
| 2025-09-29 | 33.00% | +3.01 | 0.889 | $154.08 |
| 2025-09-26 | 32.31% | +2.42 | 0.925 | $152.81 |
| 2025-09-25 | 33.61% | +2.71 | 0.888 | $153.03 |
| 2025-09-24 | 31.81% | +2.83 | 0.918 | $154.60 |
| 2025-09-23 | 31.42% | +2.60 | 0.946 | $156.29 |
| 2025-09-22 | 29.10% | +2.58 | 1.005 | $153.86 |
| 2025-09-19 | 30.11% | +1.89 | 0.957 | $156.60 |
| 2025-09-18 | 28.05% | +3.31 | 1.023 | $155.40 |
| 2025-09-17 | 27.61% | +2.12 | 1.033 | $155.16 |
| 2025-09-16 | 29.32% | +1.35 | 0.982 | $156.50 |
| 2025-09-15 | 27.69% | +2.21 | 1.031 | $156.66 |
| 2025-09-12 | 26.21% | +1.54 | 1.080 | $157.87 |
| 2025-09-11 | 27.37% | +3.40 | 1.042 | $159.47 |
| 2025-09-10 | 27.64% | +2.45 | 1.034 | $153.57 |
| 2025-09-09 | 25.74% | +2.21 | 1.108 | $153.08 |
| 2025-09-08 | 25.44% | +3.04 | 1.124 | $154.00 |
| 2025-09-05 | 25.23% | +2.33 | 1.127 | $155.30 |
| 2025-09-04 | 24.85% | +1.14 | 1.133 | $155.52 |
| 2025-09-03 | 26.13% | +3.59 | 1.095 | $152.00 |
| 2025-09-02 | 25.54% | +2.80 | 1.123 | $154.27 |
| 2025-08-29 | 24.02% | +2.77 | 1.174 | $155.53 |
| 2025-08-28 | 23.57% | +2.54 | 1.193 | $157.56 |
| 2025-08-27 | 26.40% | +0.19 | 1.050 | $156.53 |
| 2025-08-26 | 24.72% | +2.53 | 1.120 | $156.57 |
| 2025-08-25 | 24.34% | +2.41 | 1.153 | $155.85 |
| 2025-08-22 | 23.38% | +2.09 | 1.174 | $158.72 |
| 2025-08-21 | 25.39% | +3.09 | 1.127 | $154.38 |
| 2025-08-20 | 24.78% | +2.17 | 1.149 | $154.75 |
| 2025-08-19 | 24.17% | +3.20 | 1.147 | $154.34 |
| 2025-08-18 | 24.49% | +2.83 | 1.100 | $152.86 |
| 2025-08-15 | 24.18% | +2.66 | 1.123 | $152.39 |
| 2025-08-14 | 22.63% | +1.85 | 1.176 | $156.65 |
| 2025-08-13 | 22.76% | +2.30 | 1.153 | $160.20 |
| 2025-08-12 | 23.20% | +2.36 | 1.134 | $157.85 |
| 2025-08-11 | 24.57% | +2.63 | 1.077 | $155.31 |
| 2025-08-08 | 23.10% | +1.43 | 1.115 | $153.30 |
| 2025-08-07 | 23.59% | +2.45 | 1.127 | $151.74 |
| 2025-08-06 | 23.56% | +1.62 | 1.115 | $150.82 |
| 2025-08-05 | 25.67% | +2.89 | 1.032 | $150.09 |
| 2025-08-04 | 24.32% | +3.09 | 1.083 | $147.87 |
| 2025-08-01 | 25.56% | +1.66 | 1.058 | $144.41 |
| 2025-07-31 | 24.05% | +1.73 | 1.076 | $149.22 |
| 2025-07-30 | 24.38% | +2.17 | 1.066 | $146.62 |
| 2025-07-29 | 22.68% | +2.40 | 1.107 | $151.79 |
| 2025-07-28 | 22.53% | +2.21 | 1.105 | $152.05 |
| 2025-07-25 | 22.58% | +2.61 | 1.095 | $151.27 |
| 2025-07-24 | 22.36% | -0.64 | 1.129 | $149.30 |
| 2025-07-23 | 23.15% | +2.31 | 1.053 | $150.82 |
| 2025-07-22 | 22.27% | +3.37 | 1.098 | $151.20 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 338 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 34.94% | — | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 33.56% | — | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 32.66% | 27.03% | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 31.74% | 26.79% | 25.53% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 31.18% | 26.72% | 25.10% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 31.21% | 26.74% | 24.97% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 31.44% | 26.79% | 24.97% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 31.71% | 26.84% | 24.96% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 31.90% | 26.88% | 24.88% |
| ATM | 32.03% | 26.84% | 24.86% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 32.14% | 26.71% | 24.87% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 32.28% | 26.67% | 24.89% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 32.47% | 26.74% | 24.97% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 32.75% | 26.89% | 25.11% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 33.09% | 27.29% | 25.43% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 33.47% | — | 25.84% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 33.92% | — | 27.40% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $189.07 | 32.03% | 33.09% | 31.18% | +1.91 | +0.11 | 7 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $189.11 | 26.84% | 27.29% | 26.72% | +0.57 | +0.16 | 7 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $189.22 | 24.86% | 25.43% | 25.10% | +0.33 | +0.40 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $189.70 | 25.36% | 26.22% | 25.05% | +1.18 | +0.27 | 9 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $189.62 | 26.81% | 27.54% | 25.70% | +1.85 | -0.19 | 7 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $190.33 | 24.99% | 26.14% | 24.40% | +1.74 | +0.29 | 10 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $191.07 | 27.65% | 29.05% | 26.48% | +2.57 | +0.12 | 16 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $191.83 | 26.50% | 29.31% | 25.91% | +3.40 | +1.11 | 18 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $191.44 | 29.55% | 30.66% | 28.07% | +2.59 | -0.19 | 22 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $192.48 | 29.58% | 30.81% | 27.85% | +2.96 | -0.26 | 24 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
10 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $189.07 | 32.03% | $189.15 | 7 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $189.11 | 26.84% | $189.30 | 7 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $189.22 | 24.86% | $189.50 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $189.70 | 25.36% | $190.34 | 9 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $189.62 | 26.81% | $190.45 | 7 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $190.33 | 24.99% | $191.40 | 10 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $191.07 | 27.65% | $193.66 | 16 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $191.83 | 26.50% | $194.75 | 18 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $191.44 | 29.55% | $196.52 | 22 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $192.48 | 29.58% | $199.79 | 24 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 25.26%
- 60 天
- 25.36%
- 90 天
- 26.47%
- 180 天
- 27.92%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 5 次
- 83% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 7.3%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 4.6%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | 开盘前 | 3.5% | +2.0% | 0.56× |
| 2026-07-21 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-21 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-20 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-21 | 开盘前 | 7.2% | +7.7% | 1.06× |
| 2025-07-18 | 开盘前 | 6.9% | -3.7% | 0.53× |
| 2025-04-22 | 开盘前 | 9.1% | +8.1% | 0.89× |
| 2025-01-21 | 开盘前 | 7.7% | +4.2% | 0.54× |
| 2024-10-22 | 开盘前 | 9.5% | -2.3% | 0.24× |
| 2024-07-26 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-23 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-24 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。