股票 · 期权分析
NCLH 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $18.51
- 30D ATM IV
- 48.21%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 45
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +4.20
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.995
▲ +0.43 pts 较前一交易日
概览
NCLH 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 48.2%,相当于未来一个月约 ±13.8% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 243 个交易日中 45% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 4.20 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-29(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 7 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±8.8% 的波动,NCLH 实际平均波动 7.3%,7 次中有 5 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 48.21%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +4.20
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.09
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.995
对应 30 天内约 ±13.8% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.0%。
高于过去一年中 45% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 4.20 个点。
高于过去一年中 63% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.09 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 49% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 243 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 45%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 18%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 52%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 18%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $18.51
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $18.60
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 45.84%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 47.97%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 48.25%
- 使用的到期日数
- 10
- 总未平仓量
- 452,099
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.09
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 338 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 48.21% | +4.20 | 0.995 | $18.51 |
| 2026-11-09 | 47.78% | +6.05 | 1.006 | $18.43 |
| 2026-11-06 | 49.93% | +3.02 | 0.982 | $17.92 |
| 2026-11-05 | 50.81% | +4.67 | 0.970 | $17.76 |
| 2026-11-04 | 47.37% | +0.91 | 0.996 | $18.60 |
| 2026-11-03 | 51.06% | +1.74 | 0.958 | $17.42 |
| 2026-11-02 | 50.48% | +2.37 | 0.971 | $17.94 |
| 2026-10-30 | 47.98% | +2.07 | 0.973 | $17.57 |
| 2026-10-29 | 48.95% | +1.47 | 0.980 | $18.22 |
| 2026-10-28 | 55.85% | +2.83 | — | $16.06 |
| 2026-10-27 | 56.04% | +2.17 | 0.901 | $15.75 |
| 2026-10-26 | 56.86% | +3.87 | 0.896 | $15.25 |
| 2026-10-23 | 57.19% | +3.29 | 0.907 | $15.10 |
| 2026-10-22 | 57.47% | +2.49 | 0.865 | $15.54 |
| 2026-10-21 | 57.64% | +2.15 | 0.896 | $15.59 |
| 2026-10-20 | 57.15% | +1.66 | 0.897 | $15.65 |
| 2026-10-19 | 54.66% | +4.78 | 0.904 | $15.24 |
| 2026-10-16 | 58.31% | +2.86 | 0.867 | $15.05 |
| 2026-10-15 | 55.86% | +2.91 | 0.891 | $15.39 |
| 2026-10-14 | 57.16% | +1.28 | 0.882 | $14.87 |
| 2026-10-13 | 55.79% | +0.30 | 0.909 | $15.32 |
| 2026-10-09 | 52.86% | +1.31 | 0.960 | $15.57 |
| 2026-10-08 | 54.57% | +2.27 | 0.956 | $15.49 |
| 2026-10-07 | 57.55% | -0.58 | 0.895 | $15.05 |
| 2026-10-06 | 56.27% | +0.53 | 0.923 | $15.51 |
| 2026-10-05 | 54.88% | +0.64 | 0.926 | $14.87 |
| 2026-10-02 | 52.70% | -0.78 | 1.012 | $15.14 |
| 2026-10-01 | 54.25% | +2.32 | 0.981 | $14.64 |
| 2026-09-30 | 54.16% | +0.66 | 0.992 | $14.66 |
| 2026-09-29 | 53.97% | +3.08 | 1.000 | $14.80 |
| 2026-09-28 | 57.28% | +0.08 | 0.958 | $14.31 |
| 2026-09-25 | 53.01% | +1.79 | 1.029 | $14.61 |
| 2026-09-24 | 53.19% | +1.43 | 1.026 | $14.19 |
| 2026-09-23 | 53.04% | +1.21 | 1.011 | $14.18 |
| 2026-09-22 | 49.73% | +3.04 | 1.053 | $14.22 |
| 2026-09-21 | 50.08% | +1.72 | 1.047 | $14.24 |
| 2026-09-18 | 46.99% | +0.02 | 1.114 | $14.12 |
| 2026-09-17 | 48.06% | +1.66 | 1.101 | $14.39 |
| 2026-09-16 | 48.09% | +1.62 | 1.089 | $14.53 |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — | — | $14.28 |
| 2026-09-14 | — | — | — | $14.72 |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — | — | $14.82 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | — | $14.57 |
| 2026-09-09 | — | — | — | $14.85 |
| 2026-09-08 | 47.32% | +0.63 | 1.091 | $15.39 |
| 2026-09-04 | — | — | — | $15.57 |
| 2026-09-03 | 43.96% | -0.12 | 1.116 | $15.59 |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — | — | $15.57 |
| 2026-09-01 | 44.03% | -0.99 | 1.116 | $15.43 |
| 2026-08-31 | 42.84% | +1.67 | 1.165 | $16.14 |
| 2026-08-28 | 44.13% | +0.25 | 1.150 | $16.65 |
| 2026-08-27 | 42.17% | -1.85 | 1.131 | $16.65 |
| 2026-08-26 | 43.26% | -1.82 | 1.098 | $17.09 |
| 2026-08-25 | 46.58% | +1.14 | 1.050 | $17.26 |
| 2026-08-24 | 45.80% | +0.04 | 1.069 | $17.22 |
| 2025-10-22 | 52.42% | +3.79 | 0.860 | $23.63 |
| 2025-10-21 | 55.35% | +7.92 | 0.822 | $23.92 |
| 2025-10-20 | 53.45% | +6.00 | 0.884 | $23.25 |
| 2025-10-17 | — | — | — | $22.94 |
| 2025-10-16 | 50.75% | +7.08 | 0.941 | $22.85 |
| 2025-10-15 | 53.75% | +3.40 | 0.848 | $23.58 |
| 2025-10-14 | 52.72% | +1.12 | 0.926 | $23.75 |
| 2025-10-10 | — | — | — | $22.45 |
| 2025-10-09 | 55.08% | +0.44 | 0.808 | $23.29 |
| 2025-10-08 | 55.43% | +3.05 | 0.830 | $23.68 |
| 2025-10-07 | 54.92% | +3.90 | 0.838 | $23.90 |
| 2025-10-06 | 54.39% | +2.98 | 0.847 | $24.10 |
| 2025-10-03 | 53.02% | +2.98 | 0.865 | $24.32 |
| 2025-10-02 | 52.81% | +2.03 | 0.863 | $24.57 |
| 2025-10-01 | 53.58% | +4.36 | 0.862 | $24.19 |
| 2025-09-30 | 50.41% | +5.45 | 0.919 | $24.63 |
| 2025-09-29 | 51.70% | +5.24 | 0.889 | $24.75 |
| 2025-09-26 | 43.90% | +4.78 | 1.035 | $25.04 |
| 2025-09-25 | 45.20% | +4.47 | 1.014 | $25.00 |
| 2025-09-24 | 45.27% | +2.21 | 1.016 | $25.23 |
| 2025-09-23 | 45.99% | +2.40 | 0.993 | $25.57 |
| 2025-09-22 | 42.56% | +4.19 | 1.059 | $25.39 |
| 2025-09-19 | 43.03% | +3.34 | 1.048 | $25.23 |
| 2025-09-18 | 44.99% | +2.94 | 1.028 | $25.41 |
| 2025-09-17 | 46.02% | +2.36 | 1.004 | $25.38 |
| 2025-09-16 | 45.38% | +3.04 | 1.004 | $25.58 |
| 2025-09-15 | 45.23% | +3.72 | 1.010 | $26.01 |
| 2025-09-12 | 42.28% | +3.09 | 1.048 | $26.65 |
| 2025-09-11 | 43.64% | +3.98 | 1.025 | $26.94 |
| 2025-09-10 | 42.69% | +4.65 | 1.039 | $25.43 |
| 2025-09-09 | 42.66% | +5.44 | 1.014 | $25.37 |
| 2025-09-08 | 41.86% | +5.55 | 1.012 | $24.53 |
| 2025-09-05 | 40.39% | +3.50 | 1.032 | $25.66 |
| 2025-09-04 | 40.19% | +3.07 | 1.029 | $25.59 |
| 2025-09-03 | 39.14% | +5.64 | 1.065 | $25.34 |
| 2025-09-02 | 41.08% | +3.71 | 1.020 | $24.72 |
| 2025-08-29 | 40.74% | +2.93 | 0.986 | $24.84 |
| 2025-08-28 | 38.01% | +1.53 | 1.038 | $25.39 |
| 2025-08-27 | 40.36% | +1.89 | 1.014 | $24.88 |
| 2025-08-26 | 39.18% | +3.23 | 1.047 | $24.76 |
| 2025-08-25 | 38.78% | +2.68 | 1.045 | $24.64 |
| 2025-08-22 | 37.52% | +4.84 | 1.073 | $25.05 |
| 2025-08-21 | 40.35% | +3.39 | 1.032 | $23.36 |
| 2025-08-20 | 38.99% | +3.14 | 1.044 | $23.85 |
| 2025-08-19 | 36.95% | +5.50 | 1.077 | $24.43 |
| 2025-08-18 | 38.22% | +3.82 | 1.035 | $24.58 |
| 2025-08-15 | 37.64% | +2.97 | 1.068 | $24.30 |
| 2025-08-14 | 38.43% | +2.48 | 1.065 | $24.36 |
| 2025-08-13 | 38.92% | +4.08 | 1.041 | $24.76 |
| 2025-08-12 | 38.08% | +4.19 | 1.066 | $24.24 |
| 2025-08-11 | 39.45% | +2.27 | 1.052 | $23.73 |
| 2025-08-08 | 38.54% | +2.97 | 1.064 | $24.00 |
| 2025-08-07 | 37.45% | +3.62 | 1.085 | $24.47 |
| 2025-08-06 | 38.21% | +3.99 | 1.049 | $24.81 |
| 2025-08-05 | 38.47% | +4.10 | 1.042 | $25.00 |
| 2025-08-04 | 36.71% | +4.76 | 1.092 | $25.34 |
| 2025-08-01 | 40.36% | +3.50 | 1.036 | $24.50 |
| 2025-07-31 | 38.31% | +4.79 | 1.048 | $25.56 |
| 2025-07-30 | 50.69% | +4.26 | 0.889 | $23.40 |
| 2025-07-29 | 48.12% | +4.41 | 0.911 | $23.41 |
| 2025-07-28 | 48.71% | +3.50 | 0.922 | $23.88 |
| 2025-07-25 | 48.85% | +6.95 | 0.889 | $23.82 |
| 2025-07-24 | 52.04% | +3.90 | 0.863 | $23.50 |
| 2025-07-23 | 51.16% | +6.15 | 0.878 | $24.32 |
| 2025-07-22 | 53.96% | +9.00 | 0.844 | $23.60 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 338 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 48.47% | — | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 49.56% | 49.85% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 50.18% | 47.32% | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 50.64% | 46.90% | 45.51% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 50.99% | 47.72% | 45.09% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 51.24% | 47.98% | 45.14% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 51.39% | 47.67% | 45.27% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 51.50% | 47.46% | 45.68% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 51.58% | 47.64% | 45.98% |
| ATM | 51.68% | 48.06% | 46.17% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 51.82% | 48.55% | 46.33% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 52.00% | 49.24% | 46.53% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 52.23% | 49.97% | 46.84% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 52.53% | 50.42% | 47.56% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 52.97% | 50.79% | 48.36% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 54.35% | 51.47% | 49.13% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 56.53% | 52.60% | — |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 57.04% | 53.39% | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 56.24% | 52.41% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $18.56 | 51.68% | 52.97% | 50.99% | +1.99 | +0.30 | 7 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $18.58 | 48.06% | 50.79% | 47.72% | +3.06 | +1.19 | 12 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $18.57 | 46.17% | 48.36% | 45.09% | +3.27 | +0.56 | 7 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $18.59 | 46.12% | 48.42% | 44.85% | +3.57 | +0.51 | 12 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $18.60 | 48.48% | 50.45% | 46.18% | +4.28 | -0.16 | 9 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $18.66 | 45.95% | 48.77% | 44.30% | +4.47 | +0.59 | 14 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $18.67 | 45.83% | 48.41% | 44.30% | +4.11 | +0.52 | 13 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $18.71 | 49.69% | 49.49% | 46.65% | +2.84 | -1.61 | 17 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $19.05 | 47.59% | 51.56% | 45.64% | +5.92 | +1.01 | 17 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $19.07 | 50.05% | 51.49% | 47.22% | +4.28 | -0.70 | 10 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
10 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $18.56 | 51.68% | $18.58 | 7 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $18.58 | 48.06% | $18.63 | 12 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $18.57 | 46.17% | $18.66 | 7 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $18.59 | 46.12% | $18.72 | 12 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $18.60 | 48.48% | $18.79 | 9 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $18.66 | 45.95% | $18.87 | 14 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $18.67 | 45.83% | $19.03 | 13 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $18.71 | 49.69% | $19.54 | 17 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $19.05 | 47.59% | $20.39 | 17 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $19.07 | 50.05% | $21.22 | 10 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 48.21%
- 60 天
- 45.84%
- 90 天
- 47.97%
- 180 天
- 48.25%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 338 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 7 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 7 次中 5 次
- 71% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 8.8%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 7.3%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 未说明时间 | 5.8% | +6.8% | 1.18× |
| 2026-10-30 | 未说明时间 | 7.2% | +2.1% | 0.29× |
| 2026-10-29 | 开盘前 | 9.3% | +13.4% | 1.45× |
| 2026-07-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-04 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-02 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-12 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-04 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-31 | 开盘前 | 9.8% | +9.2% | 0.94× |
| 2025-04-30 | 开盘前 | 9.7% | -7.8% | 0.80× |
| 2025-02-27 | 开盘前 | 9.7% | -5.3% | 0.55× |
| 2024-10-31 | 开盘前 | 10.3% | +6.3% | 0.61× |
| 2024-07-31 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-01 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-27 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-01 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。